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| Investors Bet Giant Companies Will Dominate After Crisis | Investors Bet Giant Companies Will Dominate After Crisis |
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| An economic downturn almost always favors giants like Microsoft, Apple and Amazon, the country’s three most valuable companies. But the demand for their shares has only been amplified by a crisis that seems almost tailor-made for their future success. | An economic downturn almost always favors giants like Microsoft, Apple and Amazon, the country’s three most valuable companies. But the demand for their shares has only been amplified by a crisis that seems almost tailor-made for their future success. |
| Even as analysts have trimmed expectations for all three companies’ quarterly earnings, which they’ll report this week, their stocks are climbing. Their combined value rose more than three-quarters of a trillion dollars since the recent market low — more than the cumulative gain of the bottom half of all stocks in the S&P 500. | Even as analysts have trimmed expectations for all three companies’ quarterly earnings, which they’ll report this week, their stocks are climbing. Their combined value rose more than three-quarters of a trillion dollars since the recent market low — more than the cumulative gain of the bottom half of all stocks in the S&P 500. |
| Investors are betting, in part, that the Covid-19 crisis accelerates the already growing power of America’s corporate colossuses. | Investors are betting, in part, that the Covid-19 crisis accelerates the already growing power of America’s corporate colossuses. |
| “The firms that were the top dogs going into the crisis also happen to have the most resilient business models because they can do everything online,” said Thomas Philippon, a professor of finance at New York University. “It turns out Amazon was one of the most successful businesses in the U.S., and on top of it, they are the ones who can keep processing orders.” | “The firms that were the top dogs going into the crisis also happen to have the most resilient business models because they can do everything online,” said Thomas Philippon, a professor of finance at New York University. “It turns out Amazon was one of the most successful businesses in the U.S., and on top of it, they are the ones who can keep processing orders.” |
| Besides benefiting from their gargantuan size, Microsoft, Amazon and Apple are all sitting on mountains of cash that will make them largely immune to the funding squeezes other companies are experiencing. | Besides benefiting from their gargantuan size, Microsoft, Amazon and Apple are all sitting on mountains of cash that will make them largely immune to the funding squeezes other companies are experiencing. |
| “Investors are telling you that the bigger, stronger, more stable balance sheet company is going to win versus its smaller peer,” said Stuart Kaiser, head of equity derivatives research at UBS. | “Investors are telling you that the bigger, stronger, more stable balance sheet company is going to win versus its smaller peer,” said Stuart Kaiser, head of equity derivatives research at UBS. |
| But the depth of the current economic decline makes it reasonable to expect that such large companies will emerge in an even more dominant position this time around, said Mr. Philippon, who last year published a book, “The Great Reversal,” that examines the competitiveness of the American economy. | But the depth of the current economic decline makes it reasonable to expect that such large companies will emerge in an even more dominant position this time around, said Mr. Philippon, who last year published a book, “The Great Reversal,” that examines the competitiveness of the American economy. |
| “This one is likely to be much worse because the death rates of small businesses is likely to be even higher,” said Mr. Philippon. | “This one is likely to be much worse because the death rates of small businesses is likely to be even higher,” said Mr. Philippon. |
| The difference in investor expectations for large and small companies is stark: The Nasdaq 100, an index of the largest technology companies — which also happen to be the largest companies in the country — is down 0.6 percent this year. The Russell 2000 index, which tracks small public companies, is down 22 percent — roughly double the 11 percent in losses for the S&P 500. | The difference in investor expectations for large and small companies is stark: The Nasdaq 100, an index of the largest technology companies — which also happen to be the largest companies in the country — is down 0.6 percent this year. The Russell 2000 index, which tracks small public companies, is down 22 percent — roughly double the 11 percent in losses for the S&P 500. |
| That has supercharged the giants’ boom. | That has supercharged the giants’ boom. |
| According to data from Goldman Sachs, the top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 this month accounted for roughly 27 percent of the total value of the index. That surpassed the previous peak, which came during the tech stock frenzy of the late 1990s. The top five companies alone — Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet and Facebook — account for 20 percent of the index. | According to data from Goldman Sachs, the top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 this month accounted for roughly 27 percent of the total value of the index. That surpassed the previous peak, which came during the tech stock frenzy of the late 1990s. The top five companies alone — Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet and Facebook — account for 20 percent of the index. |
| By the end of trading on Tuesday, all but Alphabet were up more than 20 percent since the market hit its recent low on March 23. Alphabet, the parent company of Google, was up 17 percent. | By the end of trading on Tuesday, all but Alphabet were up more than 20 percent since the market hit its recent low on March 23. Alphabet, the parent company of Google, was up 17 percent. |
| Their size gives these companies a lot of heft. All five closed lower on Tuesday, which helped drag the S&P 500 down 0.5 percent, even though 330 of the 500 companies in the index were higher. | Their size gives these companies a lot of heft. All five closed lower on Tuesday, which helped drag the S&P 500 down 0.5 percent, even though 330 of the 500 companies in the index were higher. |
| While the concentration of market wealth in top companies has hit a peak in recent weeks, it has been a long-term trend in recent years, reflecting, in part, changes in the structure of corporate America. The years since the 2008 financial crisis have been marked by an increase in the consolidation of some industries, such as banking and airlines. | While the concentration of market wealth in top companies has hit a peak in recent weeks, it has been a long-term trend in recent years, reflecting, in part, changes in the structure of corporate America. The years since the 2008 financial crisis have been marked by an increase in the consolidation of some industries, such as banking and airlines. |
| And as bigger companies have steadily grown, they’ve also snagged a larger share of profits. In 1975, the biggest 100 public companies in the country took in about 49 percent of the earnings of all public companies. Their piece of the pie grew to 84 percent by 2015, according to research from Kathleen M. Kahle, a finance professor at the University of Arizona, and René M. Stulz, an economist at Ohio State University. | And as bigger companies have steadily grown, they’ve also snagged a larger share of profits. In 1975, the biggest 100 public companies in the country took in about 49 percent of the earnings of all public companies. Their piece of the pie grew to 84 percent by 2015, according to research from Kathleen M. Kahle, a finance professor at the University of Arizona, and René M. Stulz, an economist at Ohio State University. |
| Updated June 16, 2020 | |
| The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave. | |
| So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. | So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. |
| Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. | Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. |
| A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. | A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. |
| The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April. | The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April. |
| Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission. | Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission. |
| States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people. | States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people. |
| Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. | Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. |
| If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) | If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) |
| Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications. | Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications. |
| The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing. | The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing. |
| If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. | If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. |
| If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested. | If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested. |
| The current surge of megacap stocks suggests that many investors expect those companies’ slices to expand even more after the current economic implosion, in which smaller companies are widely expected to be the hardest hit. Small-cap companies — such as those included in the Russell 2000 — carry more debt, making them vulnerable to having financing cut off by bond markets. They’re less globally diversified, making them heavily dependent on the performance of the economy in the United States, the current epicenter of the crisis. | The current surge of megacap stocks suggests that many investors expect those companies’ slices to expand even more after the current economic implosion, in which smaller companies are widely expected to be the hardest hit. Small-cap companies — such as those included in the Russell 2000 — carry more debt, making them vulnerable to having financing cut off by bond markets. They’re less globally diversified, making them heavily dependent on the performance of the economy in the United States, the current epicenter of the crisis. |
| At the same time, the peculiar quirks of the Covid-19 crisis — almost coincidentally — play to the business strengths of the big companies that were already the largest players in the American economy. | At the same time, the peculiar quirks of the Covid-19 crisis — almost coincidentally — play to the business strengths of the big companies that were already the largest players in the American economy. |
| Amazon’s combination of online retail and cloud computing services for companies seems optimized for a work-from-home economy. Apple’s devices are a crucial part of mobile computing, and even though iPhone sales are expected to slow this year because of a downturn in shopping at Apple stores, analysts are projecting a robust bounce-back in demand next year. Microsoft’s corporate software packages, Azure cloud computing services and video gaming all could grow stronger in a work-from-home environment. | Amazon’s combination of online retail and cloud computing services for companies seems optimized for a work-from-home economy. Apple’s devices are a crucial part of mobile computing, and even though iPhone sales are expected to slow this year because of a downturn in shopping at Apple stores, analysts are projecting a robust bounce-back in demand next year. Microsoft’s corporate software packages, Azure cloud computing services and video gaming all could grow stronger in a work-from-home environment. |
| Those are all reasons that Microsoft is Jeb Breece’s largest holding in the mutual fund he co-manages at the New York money-management firm Spears Abacus, where he is a principal. | Those are all reasons that Microsoft is Jeb Breece’s largest holding in the mutual fund he co-manages at the New York money-management firm Spears Abacus, where he is a principal. |
| He emphasizes that he doesn’t believe that Microsoft, or any of the large tech companies, will be completely immune to the economic downturn. But he is betting that their financial stability will allow them to avoid layoffs and continue investing in product development and research during the downturn, helping them stay ahead of the competition. | He emphasizes that he doesn’t believe that Microsoft, or any of the large tech companies, will be completely immune to the economic downturn. But he is betting that their financial stability will allow them to avoid layoffs and continue investing in product development and research during the downturn, helping them stay ahead of the competition. |
| “What you saw in ’08, ’09 was the companies that were able to continue to invest came out the other side and actually accelerated their growth relative to competitors,” he said. “And I think that probably happens again.” | “What you saw in ’08, ’09 was the companies that were able to continue to invest came out the other side and actually accelerated their growth relative to competitors,” he said. “And I think that probably happens again.” |