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| ‘This Feels Very Different’ | ‘This Feels Very Different’ |
| (7 days later) | |
| By Tamir Kalifa and Clifford Krauss | By Tamir Kalifa and Clifford Krauss |
| MIDLAND, Texas — In just over a month, scores of drilling rigs have been dismantled and tucked away in storage yards. Pump jacks, those piston pumps that lift crude out of the ground, have seesawed to a standstill as operators shut down wells. | MIDLAND, Texas — In just over a month, scores of drilling rigs have been dismantled and tucked away in storage yards. Pump jacks, those piston pumps that lift crude out of the ground, have seesawed to a standstill as operators shut down wells. |
| Oil field workers who dined on strip steak and lobster before energy prices went into a tailspin in March are now standing in line at a local food bank for the first time. | Oil field workers who dined on strip steak and lobster before energy prices went into a tailspin in March are now standing in line at a local food bank for the first time. |
| As the coronavirus spreads around the world, people are no longer commuting to work, flying on planes and going on cruises, smothering the demand for oil. | As the coronavirus spreads around the world, people are no longer commuting to work, flying on planes and going on cruises, smothering the demand for oil. |
| “We’ve had our ups and downs, even over the last 20 years, but this feels very different,” said Matthew Hale, president of S.O.C. Industries, a pump truck and chemical services company that has operated in the Permian for 19 years. “We’re concerned about our industry, survival and what survival is going to look like.” | “We’ve had our ups and downs, even over the last 20 years, but this feels very different,” said Matthew Hale, president of S.O.C. Industries, a pump truck and chemical services company that has operated in the Permian for 19 years. “We’re concerned about our industry, survival and what survival is going to look like.” |
| The Permian Basin, which stretches across Texas and New Mexico and is almost as big as Britain, accounts for one out of every three barrels of oil produced in the United States. | The Permian Basin, which stretches across Texas and New Mexico and is almost as big as Britain, accounts for one out of every three barrels of oil produced in the United States. |
| The region has a storied history. It provided much of the oil for the American and Allied effort during World War II. In the 1970s, the basin created so many millionaires that many drank champagne out of cowboy boots and had trouble finding places to park their private planes. | The region has a storied history. It provided much of the oil for the American and Allied effort during World War II. In the 1970s, the basin created so many millionaires that many drank champagne out of cowboy boots and had trouble finding places to park their private planes. |
| That was followed by a crash, after which a popular bumper sticker appeared everywhere: “God Grant Me One More Oil Boom and I Promise Not to Screw It Up.” | That was followed by a crash, after which a popular bumper sticker appeared everywhere: “God Grant Me One More Oil Boom and I Promise Not to Screw It Up.” |
| Another oil boom did come, as Permian production in recent years spurred a global glut, stole market share from Saudi Arabia and Russia and eventually sparked a price war this year. This boom, too, is ending. | Another oil boom did come, as Permian production in recent years spurred a global glut, stole market share from Saudi Arabia and Russia and eventually sparked a price war this year. This boom, too, is ending. |
| Most companies operating in the Permian have already shut at least 10 percent of their wells, and with local spot prices down to just $5 a barrel, smaller companies are planning to shut all their wells in the coming weeks, executives said. Refineries are running out of storage even as they wind down operations, at least temporarily. | Most companies operating in the Permian have already shut at least 10 percent of their wells, and with local spot prices down to just $5 a barrel, smaller companies are planning to shut all their wells in the coming weeks, executives said. Refineries are running out of storage even as they wind down operations, at least temporarily. |
| Oil from the Permian supports 10 percent of the Texas economy, including production, services, shipping and refining. But as the world is stuck with too much oil, and too little demand, this area is experiencing a double shock not seen in modern times. | Oil from the Permian supports 10 percent of the Texas economy, including production, services, shipping and refining. But as the world is stuck with too much oil, and too little demand, this area is experiencing a double shock not seen in modern times. |
| “The futures market is telling us no one should be drilling any wells,” said Scott Sheffield, chief executive of Pioneer Natural Resources, a major Permian producer. | “The futures market is telling us no one should be drilling any wells,” said Scott Sheffield, chief executive of Pioneer Natural Resources, a major Permian producer. |
| “I don’t think we’ll see a lot of drilling until W.T.I. goes back to $35-$40,” he added, referring to the West Texas Intermediate benchmark price, which has been trading around $20 a barrel. It briefly dropped below zero in April for the first time. | “I don’t think we’ll see a lot of drilling until W.T.I. goes back to $35-$40,” he added, referring to the West Texas Intermediate benchmark price, which has been trading around $20 a barrel. It briefly dropped below zero in April for the first time. |
| Big companies like Exxon Mobil and Chevron will keep producing but at lower rates of growth. And as drillers slow down, it will leave an entire network of suppliers, truck drivers, repair shops and scores of other companies adrift. | Big companies like Exxon Mobil and Chevron will keep producing but at lower rates of growth. And as drillers slow down, it will leave an entire network of suppliers, truck drivers, repair shops and scores of other companies adrift. |
| The Permian produced five million barrels of oil each day early this year, from a modest 850,000 barrels a day at the dawn of the shale revolution in 2007. Producers say output will go down by at least a million daily barrels by the end of the summer, and may end 2021 as low as 3.5 million barrels a day. | The Permian produced five million barrels of oil each day early this year, from a modest 850,000 barrels a day at the dawn of the shale revolution in 2007. Producers say output will go down by at least a million daily barrels by the end of the summer, and may end 2021 as low as 3.5 million barrels a day. |
| Since the Permian began producing oil in the early 1920s, booms and busts have been an unpredictable yet recurring certainty, like the tumbleweeds that blow across the desert. | Since the Permian began producing oil in the early 1920s, booms and busts have been an unpredictable yet recurring certainty, like the tumbleweeds that blow across the desert. |
| Updated July 7, 2020 | |
| The coronavirus can stay aloft for hours in tiny droplets in stagnant air, infecting people as they inhale, mounting scientific evidence suggests. This risk is highest in crowded indoor spaces with poor ventilation, and may help explain super-spreading events reported in meatpacking plants, churches and restaurants. It’s unclear how often the virus is spread via these tiny droplets, or aerosols, compared with larger droplets that are expelled when a sick person coughs or sneezes, or transmitted through contact with contaminated surfaces, said Linsey Marr, an aerosol expert at Virginia Tech. Aerosols are released even when a person without symptoms exhales, talks or sings, according to Dr. Marr and more than 200 other experts, who have outlined the evidence in an open letter to the World Health Organization. | |
| Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. | Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. |
| Scientists around the country have tried to identify everyday materials that do a good job of filtering microscopic particles. In recent tests, HEPA furnace filters scored high, as did vacuum cleaner bags, fabric similar to flannel pajamas and those of 600-count pillowcases. Other materials tested included layered coffee filters and scarves and bandannas. These scored lower, but still captured a small percentage of particles. | Scientists around the country have tried to identify everyday materials that do a good job of filtering microscopic particles. In recent tests, HEPA furnace filters scored high, as did vacuum cleaner bags, fabric similar to flannel pajamas and those of 600-count pillowcases. Other materials tested included layered coffee filters and scarves and bandannas. These scored lower, but still captured a small percentage of particles. |
| A commentary published this month on the website of the British Journal of Sports Medicine points out that covering your face during exercise “comes with issues of potential breathing restriction and discomfort” and requires “balancing benefits versus possible adverse events.” Masks do alter exercise, says Cedric X. Bryant, the president and chief science officer of the American Council on Exercise, a nonprofit organization that funds exercise research and certifies fitness professionals. “In my personal experience,” he says, “heart rates are higher at the same relative intensity when you wear a mask.” Some people also could experience lightheadedness during familiar workouts while masked, says Len Kravitz, a professor of exercise science at the University of New Mexico. | A commentary published this month on the website of the British Journal of Sports Medicine points out that covering your face during exercise “comes with issues of potential breathing restriction and discomfort” and requires “balancing benefits versus possible adverse events.” Masks do alter exercise, says Cedric X. Bryant, the president and chief science officer of the American Council on Exercise, a nonprofit organization that funds exercise research and certifies fitness professionals. “In my personal experience,” he says, “heart rates are higher at the same relative intensity when you wear a mask.” Some people also could experience lightheadedness during familiar workouts while masked, says Len Kravitz, a professor of exercise science at the University of New Mexico. |
| The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth. | The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth. |
| The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave. | The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave. |
| So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. | So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. |
| Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. | Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. |
| A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. | A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. |
| If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) | If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) |
| If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. | If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. |
| Long-abandoned ghost towns are strewn across the arid landscape, reminders of the toll of past oil-price collapses. During the Great Depression, when oil prices sank to 13 cents a barrel (about $2 in 2020 dollars), and again in the 1980s when crude dropped nearly 80 percent, most oil producers in the Permian and nearly every major Texas bank were devastated. | Long-abandoned ghost towns are strewn across the arid landscape, reminders of the toll of past oil-price collapses. During the Great Depression, when oil prices sank to 13 cents a barrel (about $2 in 2020 dollars), and again in the 1980s when crude dropped nearly 80 percent, most oil producers in the Permian and nearly every major Texas bank were devastated. |
| The last few weeks have felt like eerie reminders of that past. | The last few weeks have felt like eerie reminders of that past. |
| The Permian made a miraculous recovery over the last decade as the vanguard of the fracking boom that helped the United States approach its long-sought goal of energy independence. | The Permian made a miraculous recovery over the last decade as the vanguard of the fracking boom that helped the United States approach its long-sought goal of energy independence. |
| Exxon Mobil returned, and Chevron, BP and Royal Dutch Shell all began to invest heavily as the Permian became the hottest oil play in the world. Struggling elsewhere, Exxon Mobil and Chevron have bet much of their futures on this old field. | Exxon Mobil returned, and Chevron, BP and Royal Dutch Shell all began to invest heavily as the Permian became the hottest oil play in the world. Struggling elsewhere, Exxon Mobil and Chevron have bet much of their futures on this old field. |
| Now, only 26 crews are fracking in the Permian, down from 47 in March and 127 in January. | Now, only 26 crews are fracking in the Permian, down from 47 in March and 127 in January. |
| “People don’t know how to react yet,” said Thomas Bruder, a senior manager at ProPetro, a major hydraulic fracturing and well cementing company. “We’re taking it day by day.” | “People don’t know how to react yet,” said Thomas Bruder, a senior manager at ProPetro, a major hydraulic fracturing and well cementing company. “We’re taking it day by day.” |
| Oil executives are desperate to save their businesses, many of which are overextended with debt. More than 10,000 workers have already been let go or furloughed in and around Midland and Odessa, the industry’s hubs in West Texas. Four times as many might ultimately lose their jobs, executives say. | Oil executives are desperate to save their businesses, many of which are overextended with debt. More than 10,000 workers have already been let go or furloughed in and around Midland and Odessa, the industry’s hubs in West Texas. Four times as many might ultimately lose their jobs, executives say. |
| “The pricing is so low we cannot possibly break even and pay our people,” said Jim Wilkes, president of Texland Petroleum, which has been in business since 1973. The company has run out of buyers for its production of 7,000 barrels a day and plans to shut off its 1,211 wells over the next few days. | “The pricing is so low we cannot possibly break even and pay our people,” said Jim Wilkes, president of Texland Petroleum, which has been in business since 1973. The company has run out of buyers for its production of 7,000 barrels a day and plans to shut off its 1,211 wells over the next few days. |
| “We’re going to have to shut down our production,” Mr. Wilkes said. | “We’re going to have to shut down our production,” Mr. Wilkes said. |
| The human cost of the layoffs is just starting. | The human cost of the layoffs is just starting. |
| In mid-March, during his last lucrative week as a “hot shot” truck driver before the downturn, Bill Cunningham, 62, clocked over 2,000 miles on five runs delivering loads of casing and tubing around the Permian. | In mid-March, during his last lucrative week as a “hot shot” truck driver before the downturn, Bill Cunningham, 62, clocked over 2,000 miles on five runs delivering loads of casing and tubing around the Permian. |
| Last week, Mr. Cunningham climbed into his tuxedo-black one-ton Ford F-350 pickup for only two round trips from Odessa to Midland and back, totaling 120 miles. One was to deliver six pipe couplings. The other was to pick up a check. | Last week, Mr. Cunningham climbed into his tuxedo-black one-ton Ford F-350 pickup for only two round trips from Odessa to Midland and back, totaling 120 miles. One was to deliver six pipe couplings. The other was to pick up a check. |
| “Guys like me who are up in their 60s, they’re not going to get hired in a lot of places,” said Mr. Cunningham, who has seen five booms and busts since moving to Odessa in 1979. “That’s the only thing that I’ve got, that I can do,” he said. “We’re not going to starve to death tomorrow, but we might the next day.” | “Guys like me who are up in their 60s, they’re not going to get hired in a lot of places,” said Mr. Cunningham, who has seen five booms and busts since moving to Odessa in 1979. “That’s the only thing that I’ve got, that I can do,” he said. “We’re not going to starve to death tomorrow, but we might the next day.” |
| Tamir Kalifa reported and photographed from Midland and the surrounding areas. Clifford Krauss reported from Houston. | Tamir Kalifa reported and photographed from Midland and the surrounding areas. Clifford Krauss reported from Houston. |