This article is from the source 'nytimes' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.
You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/01/world/europe/coronavirus-britain-tests-deaths.html
The article has changed 25 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.
Version 7 | Version 8 |
---|---|
U.K. Virus Tests Surpass Target, but Britain’s Deaths May Overtake Italy’s | U.K. Virus Tests Surpass Target, but Britain’s Deaths May Overtake Italy’s |
(7 days later) | |
LONDON — For Britons looking to judge their government’s desperate response to the coronavirus pandemic, the verdict has increasingly come down to two numbers: 100,000, the number of tests that officials promised to conduct every day by the end of April; and 27,510, the latest death toll. | LONDON — For Britons looking to judge their government’s desperate response to the coronavirus pandemic, the verdict has increasingly come down to two numbers: 100,000, the number of tests that officials promised to conduct every day by the end of April; and 27,510, the latest death toll. |
On Friday, there was good news and bad news in the numbers: The government announced it had exceeded its testing target, carrying out 122,347 tests on the last day of the month. But with 739 more people dying from the virus that same day, Britain was also poised to soon overtake Italy in a few days as the hardest hit country in Europe. | On Friday, there was good news and bad news in the numbers: The government announced it had exceeded its testing target, carrying out 122,347 tests on the last day of the month. But with 739 more people dying from the virus that same day, Britain was also poised to soon overtake Italy in a few days as the hardest hit country in Europe. |
The fixation on numbers is understandable but misplaced, experts said. Just because Britain can carry out more than 100,000 tests a day does not mean it has built an effective testing and contact tracing program, which experts say is needed to avert another spike in infections if the government eases the lockdown. | The fixation on numbers is understandable but misplaced, experts said. Just because Britain can carry out more than 100,000 tests a day does not mean it has built an effective testing and contact tracing program, which experts say is needed to avert another spike in infections if the government eases the lockdown. |
And while there would be grim symbolism for Britain in passing Italy in the total deaths, drawing direct comparisons between any two countries is extremely difficult, given differences in population, demographics, population density, and how the authorities collect the statistics. | And while there would be grim symbolism for Britain in passing Italy in the total deaths, drawing direct comparisons between any two countries is extremely difficult, given differences in population, demographics, population density, and how the authorities collect the statistics. |
Still, Britain’s health secretary, Matt Hancock, trumpeted the achievement of 122,000 tests, a 10-fold increase from when he set the goal on April 2, a day after having emerged from isolation himself with symptoms of the virus. | Still, Britain’s health secretary, Matt Hancock, trumpeted the achievement of 122,000 tests, a 10-fold increase from when he set the goal on April 2, a day after having emerged from isolation himself with symptoms of the virus. |
He said the achievement had set the stage for an equally ambitious program of contact tracing — identifying people who have come into contact with an infected person so they can be also isolated, helping curtail the spread of the disease. Mr. Hancock said this program would eventually allow Britain to lift its lockdown and return to a semblance of normalcy. | He said the achievement had set the stage for an equally ambitious program of contact tracing — identifying people who have come into contact with an infected person so they can be also isolated, helping curtail the spread of the disease. Mr. Hancock said this program would eventually allow Britain to lift its lockdown and return to a semblance of normalcy. |
“I knew it was an audacious goal, but we needed an audacious goal,” said a visibly relieved Mr. Hancock, for whom the target had become a personal crucible. “The challenge we still face is vast, but we are making real progress.” | “I knew it was an audacious goal, but we needed an audacious goal,” said a visibly relieved Mr. Hancock, for whom the target had become a personal crucible. “The challenge we still face is vast, but we are making real progress.” |
There were some lingering questions over whether the government changed its policy for counting tests to make its target. While officials insisted they had not changed the rules, they acknowledged having counted more than 27,000 home test kits, and more than 12,000 tests sent to satellite testing centers, at the time they were mailed rather than when they were returned to labs, with results. | There were some lingering questions over whether the government changed its policy for counting tests to make its target. While officials insisted they had not changed the rules, they acknowledged having counted more than 27,000 home test kits, and more than 12,000 tests sent to satellite testing centers, at the time they were mailed rather than when they were returned to labs, with results. |
Regardless how many tests Britain has conducted, medical experts said the government had yet to build a contact-tracing operation to match its testing capacity. Drawing so much attention to the 100,000 number, critics said, was mostly a public-relations stunt. | Regardless how many tests Britain has conducted, medical experts said the government had yet to build a contact-tracing operation to match its testing capacity. Drawing so much attention to the 100,000 number, critics said, was mostly a public-relations stunt. |
“The number of people tested is meaningless,” said Dr. Bharat Pankhania, an expert in infectious diseases at the University of Exeter Medical School. “If you fail to deliver on contact tracing, then you are testing as a ceremony rather than as a way to contain and isolate the outbreak.” | “The number of people tested is meaningless,” said Dr. Bharat Pankhania, an expert in infectious diseases at the University of Exeter Medical School. “If you fail to deliver on contact tracing, then you are testing as a ceremony rather than as a way to contain and isolate the outbreak.” |
Other experts, however, said there was merit to setting a numerical goal for testing, given Britain’s slow start. In March, officials decided to abandon testing and tracing in the general population in favor of testing only those people with symptoms serious enough to hospitalize them. | Other experts, however, said there was merit to setting a numerical goal for testing, given Britain’s slow start. In March, officials decided to abandon testing and tracing in the general population in favor of testing only those people with symptoms serious enough to hospitalize them. |
“When there is a political priority to do something, then it can happen,” said Professor Devi Sridhar, director of the global health governance program at the University of Edinburgh. “Now we need the same effort and priority given to tracing and isolation, as it goes in a package: test, trace, isolate.” | “When there is a political priority to do something, then it can happen,” said Professor Devi Sridhar, director of the global health governance program at the University of Edinburgh. “Now we need the same effort and priority given to tracing and isolation, as it goes in a package: test, trace, isolate.” |
To some extent, the government is a victim of its penchant for using numbers to reassure the public it has a coherent plan. On March 19, in one of Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s early public statements on the crisis, he said that he believed the British people could send the virus “packing” within 12 weeks. | To some extent, the government is a victim of its penchant for using numbers to reassure the public it has a coherent plan. On March 19, in one of Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s early public statements on the crisis, he said that he believed the British people could send the virus “packing” within 12 weeks. |
Since returning to work after his own near-fatal bout of Covid-19, the disease caused by the virus, Mr. Johnson has fastened onto another metric: the number of new infections stemming from a single case, which has fallen to below one throughout Britain, but which Mr. Johnson fears could spike again if he lifts the social distancing measures too abruptly. | Since returning to work after his own near-fatal bout of Covid-19, the disease caused by the virus, Mr. Johnson has fastened onto another metric: the number of new infections stemming from a single case, which has fallen to below one throughout Britain, but which Mr. Johnson fears could spike again if he lifts the social distancing measures too abruptly. |
Alongside the plan to ramp up testing, the government plans by mid-May to recruit around 18,000 people — including around 3,000 in the field — to conduct contact tracing. That is supposed to operate with a cellphone app that is being tested next week in one place, the Isle of Wight. | Alongside the plan to ramp up testing, the government plans by mid-May to recruit around 18,000 people — including around 3,000 in the field — to conduct contact tracing. That is supposed to operate with a cellphone app that is being tested next week in one place, the Isle of Wight. |
But so far, Downing Street has been unable to say how many of the 18,000 new employees have been recruited. | But so far, Downing Street has been unable to say how many of the 18,000 new employees have been recruited. |
Updated June 22, 2020 | |
A commentary published this month on the website of the British Journal of Sports Medicine points out that covering your face during exercise “comes with issues of potential breathing restriction and discomfort” and requires “balancing benefits versus possible adverse events.” Masks do alter exercise, says Cedric X. Bryant, the president and chief science officer of the American Council on Exercise, a nonprofit organization that funds exercise research and certifies fitness professionals. “In my personal experience,” he says, “heart rates are higher at the same relative intensity when you wear a mask.” Some people also could experience lightheadedness during familiar workouts while masked, says Len Kravitz, a professor of exercise science at the University of New Mexico. | |
The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth. | The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth. |
The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave. | The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave. |
So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. | So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. |
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. | Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. |
A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. | A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. |
The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April. | The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April. |
States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people. | States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people. |
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. | Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. |
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) | If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) |
If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. | If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. |
If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested. | If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested. |
Mr. Johnson once set an objective of 250,000 tests a day, though the government now says that was conceived at a time when the search was on for an inexpensive and user-friendly antibody test, which would detect whether a person had been infected in the past. In fact, when it was announced, Mr. Hancock’s 100,000 target also included the possibility of counting antibody tests. | Mr. Johnson once set an objective of 250,000 tests a day, though the government now says that was conceived at a time when the search was on for an inexpensive and user-friendly antibody test, which would detect whether a person had been infected in the past. In fact, when it was announced, Mr. Hancock’s 100,000 target also included the possibility of counting antibody tests. |
“Targets work when you have confidence that hitting them helps you in meeting your goal,” said Stewart Wood, an adviser to former Prime Minister Gordon Brown. “The problem with this type of targeting is it suggests a level of competence which is not backed up by the strategy.” | “Targets work when you have confidence that hitting them helps you in meeting your goal,” said Stewart Wood, an adviser to former Prime Minister Gordon Brown. “The problem with this type of targeting is it suggests a level of competence which is not backed up by the strategy.” |
From the start, the government has publicly plotted the country’s death toll relative to its neighbors, a comparison that initially looked favorable for Britain. But that data came under scrutiny, since it was based on deaths in hospitals only, while France’s, for example, included fatalities in nursing homes, too. | From the start, the government has publicly plotted the country’s death toll relative to its neighbors, a comparison that initially looked favorable for Britain. But that data came under scrutiny, since it was based on deaths in hospitals only, while France’s, for example, included fatalities in nursing homes, too. |
When non-hospital deaths were recently added into the equation, Britain suddenly appeared headed for among the worst fatality numbers in Europe. That prompted the government to add yet another new chart — based on per capita death rates — which puts it behind Belgium, Spain and Italy. | When non-hospital deaths were recently added into the equation, Britain suddenly appeared headed for among the worst fatality numbers in Europe. That prompted the government to add yet another new chart — based on per capita death rates — which puts it behind Belgium, Spain and Italy. |
As of Friday, Italy’s deaths totaled 28,236 — a number that excludes deaths in nursing homes. Its daily fatality rate has mostly declined over the last week, and was at 269 on Friday. | As of Friday, Italy’s deaths totaled 28,236 — a number that excludes deaths in nursing homes. Its daily fatality rate has mostly declined over the last week, and was at 269 on Friday. |
“You can see the shift in government messaging emerge, and the new line is the importance of data comparability,” said Sophia Gaston, director of the British Foreign Policy Group and a fellow at the London School of Economics. | “You can see the shift in government messaging emerge, and the new line is the importance of data comparability,” said Sophia Gaston, director of the British Foreign Policy Group and a fellow at the London School of Economics. |
“There is some truth in that,” she said, “but at the same time it is dealing with the realization that Britain is likely to come out of this with a rather ghastly report card.” | “There is some truth in that,” she said, “but at the same time it is dealing with the realization that Britain is likely to come out of this with a rather ghastly report card.” |
The government, Mr. Wood said, would have been better served by explaining the uncertainty over statistics from the start and by being more explicit about the lack of up-to-date figures on nursing home fatalities. | The government, Mr. Wood said, would have been better served by explaining the uncertainty over statistics from the start and by being more explicit about the lack of up-to-date figures on nursing home fatalities. |
“The public would have understood that lack of certainty,” he said. “Instead, they have stuck with measures which everyone gradually has got to know are not quite right, and then had to shift, almost as a concession.” | “The public would have understood that lack of certainty,” he said. “Instead, they have stuck with measures which everyone gradually has got to know are not quite right, and then had to shift, almost as a concession.” |
Elisabetta Povoledo contributed reporting from Rome. | Elisabetta Povoledo contributed reporting from Rome. |