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Kim Jong-un Is Back. What Happens When He’s Really Gone? Kim Jong-un Is Back. What Happens When He’s Really Gone?
(2 days later)
SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, reappeared in dramatic fashion this weekend when he was shown on North Korean media after three weeks of unexplained absence, cutting the ribbon on a fertilizer factory — and quieting rumors that he was gravely ill.SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, reappeared in dramatic fashion this weekend when he was shown on North Korean media after three weeks of unexplained absence, cutting the ribbon on a fertilizer factory — and quieting rumors that he was gravely ill.
But those weeks of hand-wringing over Mr. Kim’s fate, and North Korea’s future, showed again how little the world knows about what’s happening in the opaque, nuclear-armed country, and how vulnerable it is to misinformation about it.But those weeks of hand-wringing over Mr. Kim’s fate, and North Korea’s future, showed again how little the world knows about what’s happening in the opaque, nuclear-armed country, and how vulnerable it is to misinformation about it.
It seems that Mr. Kim is alive and well, after all. On Saturday, North Korean state media released photos and video footage of him smiling, chatting and walking before a large crowd at the ribbon-cutting ceremony, which it said took place on Friday.It seems that Mr. Kim is alive and well, after all. On Saturday, North Korean state media released photos and video footage of him smiling, chatting and walking before a large crowd at the ribbon-cutting ceremony, which it said took place on Friday.
Such reports are almost impossible to confirm. But after the photos appeared, South Korea — which had repeatedly insisted there was “nothing unusual” happening in the North — issued a strong rebuke about the various news reports that had suggested Mr. Kim was in peril.Such reports are almost impossible to confirm. But after the photos appeared, South Korea — which had repeatedly insisted there was “nothing unusual” happening in the North — issued a strong rebuke about the various news reports that had suggested Mr. Kim was in peril.
“The groundless rumors about North Korea have caused various unnecessary economic, security and societal confusion and costs,” the South’s Unification Ministry said in a text message to reporters.“The groundless rumors about North Korea have caused various unnecessary economic, security and societal confusion and costs,” the South’s Unification Ministry said in a text message to reporters.
Still, Mr. Kim’s reappearance did nothing to explain the three-week absence from public view that led to the rumors, not least why he missed the important April 15 state ceremonies for the birth anniversary of his grandfather Kim Il-sung, North Korea’s founder.Still, Mr. Kim’s reappearance did nothing to explain the three-week absence from public view that led to the rumors, not least why he missed the important April 15 state ceremonies for the birth anniversary of his grandfather Kim Il-sung, North Korea’s founder.
And the speculation about Mr. Kim’s well-being — some reports had him in a “vegetative state” after botched heart surgery — brought home an alarming fact: that the world simply doesn’t know what would happen to the North and its nuclear arsenal should he suddenly die or become incapacitated.And the speculation about Mr. Kim’s well-being — some reports had him in a “vegetative state” after botched heart surgery — brought home an alarming fact: that the world simply doesn’t know what would happen to the North and its nuclear arsenal should he suddenly die or become incapacitated.
Unlike his grandfather and his father, Kim Jong-il, both of whom spent years grooming their chosen sons as successors, Mr. Kim, 36, ​has no heir apparent. He is said to have three children, all too young to govern; his younger sister, Kim Yo-jong, has become a trusted aide, but there is skepticism that the North’s elderly generals would answer to a young woman.Unlike his grandfather and his father, Kim Jong-il, both of whom spent years grooming their chosen sons as successors, Mr. Kim, 36, ​has no heir apparent. He is said to have three children, all too young to govern; his younger sister, Kim Yo-jong, has become a trusted aide, but there is skepticism that the North’s elderly generals would answer to a young woman.
“If anything, the past 10 days of frenzied speculation have revealed our weaknesses in intelligence and in reporting on what is happening inside North Korea,” said Jean H. Lee, a North Korea expert at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington. “Regardless, it has refocused our attention on Kim, his health, stability in North Korea and the family’s hold on power.”“If anything, the past 10 days of frenzied speculation have revealed our weaknesses in intelligence and in reporting on what is happening inside North Korea,” said Jean H. Lee, a North Korea expert at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington. “Regardless, it has refocused our attention on Kim, his health, stability in North Korea and the family’s hold on power.”
Even the perception of a leadership vacuum in the North could have dangerous consequences, analysts say. Misinformation could lead to miscalculation or unintended escalations by one party or another.Even the perception of a leadership vacuum in the North could have dangerous consequences, analysts say. Misinformation could lead to miscalculation or unintended escalations by one party or another.
Over the decades, the rulers of the Kim dynasty have often disappeared from view for weeks or even months at a time. Each absence generated rumors of a coup, an assassination or a health crisis, always fueled by a lack of firsthand information about the leadership in Pyongyang, the capital.Over the decades, the rulers of the Kim dynasty have often disappeared from view for weeks or even months at a time. Each absence generated rumors of a coup, an assassination or a health crisis, always fueled by a lack of firsthand information about the leadership in Pyongyang, the capital.
This time was no different. Even two North Korean defectors who were recently elected to the South’s Parliament — who might be expected to read the Pyongyang tea leaves better than most — said they were sure Mr. Kim was either dead or seriously ill.This time was no different. Even two North Korean defectors who were recently elected to the South’s Parliament — who might be expected to read the Pyongyang tea leaves better than most — said they were sure Mr. Kim was either dead or seriously ill.
“One thing is clear​,” said one, ​Thae Yong-ho, a former diplomat. “He cannot stand up by himself or walk properly​.”“One thing is clear​,” said one, ​Thae Yong-ho, a former diplomat. “He cannot stand up by himself or walk properly​.”
Mr. Kim’s latest absence came at a particularly sensitive time. Since his diplomacy with President Trump stalled last year, Mr. Kim has dragged the North deeper into isolation, declaring that it was prepared for a prolonged standoff with Washington over its nuclear weapons program.Mr. Kim’s latest absence came at a particularly sensitive time. Since his diplomacy with President Trump stalled last year, Mr. Kim has dragged the North deeper into isolation, declaring that it was prepared for a prolonged standoff with Washington over its nuclear weapons program.
But his plan to build a “self-supporting” economy in the face of international sanctions has been ambushed by the coronavirus, which forced North Korea to shut its borders. On Saturday, the state news agency said the fertilizer plant opened by Mr. Kim represented a “great victory” against the “mean sanctions and pressure from hostile forces” amid “the global catastrophe caused by the malicious virus.”But his plan to build a “self-supporting” economy in the face of international sanctions has been ambushed by the coronavirus, which forced North Korea to shut its borders. On Saturday, the state news agency said the fertilizer plant opened by Mr. Kim represented a “great victory” against the “mean sanctions and pressure from hostile forces” amid “the global catastrophe caused by the malicious virus.”
North Korea insists that it has had no Covid-19 cases, but outside experts fear it could be hiding a significant outbreak. Harry J. Kazianis, senior director of Korean studies at the Center for the National Interest in Washington, said the likeliest explanation for Mr. Kim’s absence was that he was “taking steps to ensure his health or may have been impacted in some way personally by the virus.” ​North Korea insists that it has had no Covid-19 cases, but outside experts fear it could be hiding a significant outbreak. Harry J. Kazianis, senior director of Korean studies at the Center for the National Interest in Washington, said the likeliest explanation for Mr. Kim’s absence was that he was “taking steps to ensure his health or may have been impacted in some way personally by the virus.” ​
One of the biggest lessons from recent weeks is that “the world is largely unprepared for instability in North Korea,” said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul.One of the biggest lessons from recent weeks is that “the world is largely unprepared for instability in North Korea,” said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul.
Outside analysts fear that if Mr. Kim suddenly died, the country’s dozens of nuclear devices — as well as chemical and biological weapons, conventional arms and a 1.2 million-strong military — would be at the center of a messy, cutthroat contest for power.Outside analysts fear that if Mr. Kim suddenly died, the country’s dozens of nuclear devices — as well as chemical and biological weapons, conventional arms and a 1.2 million-strong military — would be at the center of a messy, cutthroat contest for power.
Updated June 5, 2020Updated June 5, 2020
A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.
The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.
Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.
Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.
States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.
The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing.The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing.
If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested.If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested.
​“The combination of loose nukes and political conflict is a nightmare scenario for the world​,” said Danny Russel, vice president of the Asia Society Policy Institute, who dealt with North Korea as a National Security Council director at the White House and an assistant secretary of state for Asia. ​“Political turmoil could lead a faction or a commander to brandish or — God forbid — launch a nuclear-armed missile. ​”​“The combination of loose nukes and political conflict is a nightmare scenario for the world​,” said Danny Russel, vice president of the Asia Society Policy Institute, who dealt with North Korea as a National Security Council director at the White House and an assistant secretary of state for Asia. ​“Political turmoil could lead a faction or a commander to brandish or — God forbid — launch a nuclear-armed missile. ​”
Mr. Russel said that in the event of a leadership struggle, Washington’s immediate ​​priority would be to ensure ​“the security of North Korea’s nuclear weapons and material​.” But its work would be “handicapped by the intelligence community’s uncertainty about their exact whereabouts — something the North Koreans have gone to great lengths to conceal​,” he said.Mr. Russel said that in the event of a leadership struggle, Washington’s immediate ​​priority would be to ensure ​“the security of North Korea’s nuclear weapons and material​.” But its work would be “handicapped by the intelligence community’s uncertainty about their exact whereabouts — something the North Koreans have gone to great lengths to conceal​,” he said.
China also fears instability in North Korea, which it considers a buffer state between itself and the American forces in South Korea.China also fears instability in North Korea, which it considers a buffer state between itself and the American forces in South Korea.
Some analysts think China would intervene to secure the North’s nuclear facilities and install a new leader to its liking, should Mr. Kim’s rule end. But others are skeptical about its ability to do so, given the deep-rooted distrust that has shadowed the countries’ alliance. Besides, decades of extreme nationalistic indoctrination have left North Koreans wary of any intervention by foreigners, be they American or Chinese.Some analysts think China would intervene to secure the North’s nuclear facilities and install a new leader to its liking, should Mr. Kim’s rule end. But others are skeptical about its ability to do so, given the deep-rooted distrust that has shadowed the countries’ alliance. Besides, decades of extreme nationalistic indoctrination have left North Koreans wary of any intervention by foreigners, be they American or Chinese.
The police state’s control over the population has been such that a civil uprising is all but unthinkable in the North. But if that control should loosen during a murky transition period, long-held grievances against ​official corruption and economic hardship ​could erupt into protests. ​The police state’s control over the population has been such that a civil uprising is all but unthinkable in the North. But if that control should loosen during a murky transition period, long-held grievances against ​official corruption and economic hardship ​could erupt into protests. ​
Such considerations have long complicated discussions between American and South Korean officials as they struggled to formulate top-secret plans for handling crises in North Korea, including how to prevent the North’s nuclear arms from falling into the wrong hands.Such considerations have long complicated discussions between American and South Korean officials as they struggled to formulate top-secret plans for handling crises in North Korea, including how to prevent the North’s nuclear arms from falling into the wrong hands.
“With U.S.-China relations at an absolute low point, what happens if U.S. and Chinese special forces find themselves face to face while attempting to seize control of a North Korean base?” Mr. Russel asked.“With U.S.-China relations at an absolute low point, what happens if U.S. and Chinese special forces find themselves face to face while attempting to seize control of a North Korean base?” Mr. Russel asked.
“Conversely, Washington may suddenly have to deal with a South Korean ally who sees a now-or-never chance to reunify the Korean Peninsula and begins a northward push despite U.S. objections,” he said. “Does the United States in that case relent and provide air cover and support, or stand back and run the risk of a military disaster?”“Conversely, Washington may suddenly have to deal with a South Korean ally who sees a now-or-never chance to reunify the Korean Peninsula and begins a northward push despite U.S. objections,” he said. “Does the United States in that case relent and provide air cover and support, or stand back and run the risk of a military disaster?”
​For now, such questions will subside — until Mr. Kim disappears again.​For now, such questions will subside — until Mr. Kim disappears again.