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| Version 1 | Version 2 |
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| Bank of England warns of deepest recession on record | Bank of England warns of deepest recession on record |
| (32 minutes later) | |
| The Bank of England has warned that the coronavirus pandemic will push the UK economy towards its deepest recession on record. | The Bank of England has warned that the coronavirus pandemic will push the UK economy towards its deepest recession on record. |
| It said the economy was on course to shrink 14% this year, based on the lockdown being relaxed in June. | It said the economy was on course to shrink 14% this year, based on the lockdown being relaxed in June. |
| Scenarios drawn up by the Bank to illustrate the economic impact said Covid-19 was "dramatically reducing jobs and incomes in the UK". | Scenarios drawn up by the Bank to illustrate the economic impact said Covid-19 was "dramatically reducing jobs and incomes in the UK". |
| Policymakers voted unanimously to keep interest rates at a record low of 0.1%. | Policymakers voted unanimously to keep interest rates at a record low of 0.1%. |
| However, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) that sets interest rates was split on whether to inject more stimulus into the economy. | However, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) that sets interest rates was split on whether to inject more stimulus into the economy. |
| Two of its nine members voted to increase the latest round of quantitative easing by £100bn to £300bn. | Two of its nine members voted to increase the latest round of quantitative easing by £100bn to £300bn. |
| The Bank's analysis was based on social distancing measures being gradually phased out between June and September. | The Bank's analysis was based on social distancing measures being gradually phased out between June and September. |
| The Bank's scenario showed the UK economy plunging into its first recession in more than a decade. The economy shrinks by 2.9% in the first quarter of 2020, followed by an unprecedented 25% decline in the three months to June. | The Bank's scenario showed the UK economy plunging into its first recession in more than a decade. The economy shrinks by 2.9% in the first quarter of 2020, followed by an unprecedented 25% decline in the three months to June. |
| This would push the UK into a technical recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of economic decline. | This would push the UK into a technical recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of economic decline. |
| Rebound | Rebound |
| For the year as a whole, the economy is expected to contract by 14%. This would be the biggest annual decline on record, according to Office for National Statistics (ONS) data dating back to 1949. | For the year as a whole, the economy is expected to contract by 14%. This would be the biggest annual decline on record, according to Office for National Statistics (ONS) data dating back to 1949. |
| It would also be the sharpest annual contraction since 1706, according to reconstructed Bank of England data stretching back to the 18th Century. | It would also be the sharpest annual contraction since 1706, according to reconstructed Bank of England data stretching back to the 18th Century. |
| While UK growth is expected to rebound in 2021 to a record 15%, the size of the economy is not expected to get back to its pre-virus peak until the middle of next year. | While UK growth is expected to rebound in 2021 to a record 15%, the size of the economy is not expected to get back to its pre-virus peak until the middle of next year. |
| The UK government is expected to start easing lockdown restrictions next week. | The UK government is expected to start easing lockdown restrictions next week. |
| The Bank stressed that the outlook for the economy was "unusually uncertain" at present and would depend on how households and businesses responded to the pandemic. | |
| It assumes job losses and shrinking pay packets will continue to weigh on the recovery, with British families remaining cautious about shopping and socialising for at least another year. | |
| It also assumes: | It also assumes: |
| Average weekly earnings are expected to shrink by 2% this year, reflecting the fall in wages for furloughed workers. | Average weekly earnings are expected to shrink by 2% this year, reflecting the fall in wages for furloughed workers. |
| The Bank said sharp increases in benefit claims are "consistent with a pronounced rise in the unemployment rate", which is expected to climb above 9% this year, from the current rate of 4%. | The Bank said sharp increases in benefit claims are "consistent with a pronounced rise in the unemployment rate", which is expected to climb above 9% this year, from the current rate of 4%. |
| Under the Bank's scenario, inflation, as measured by the consumer prices index (CPI) falls to zero at the start of next year amid the sharp drop in energy prices.It is also expected to remain well below the Bank's 2% target for the next two years. | |
| The Bank warns that this is not a typical forecast and that "many other scenarios are plausible". But these numbers provide the sharpest analysis yet of the economic challenge of the virus and its pandemic. | The Bank warns that this is not a typical forecast and that "many other scenarios are plausible". But these numbers provide the sharpest analysis yet of the economic challenge of the virus and its pandemic. |
| Nonetheless the Bank has chosen to continue with levels of economic stimulus announced last month. The Monetary Policy Committee chose to keep base rates at their record low of 0.1% and its bond buying quantitative easing programme at £645bn. | Nonetheless the Bank has chosen to continue with levels of economic stimulus announced last month. The Monetary Policy Committee chose to keep base rates at their record low of 0.1% and its bond buying quantitative easing programme at £645bn. |
| Two members of the nine-member MPC voted to further increase the funds pumped into the government borrowing market by £100bn, suggesting the Bank may yet do more. | Two members of the nine-member MPC voted to further increase the funds pumped into the government borrowing market by £100bn, suggesting the Bank may yet do more. |