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| For Workers, No Sign of ‘What Normal Is Going to Look Like’ | For Workers, No Sign of ‘What Normal Is Going to Look Like’ |
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| With unemployment claims surpassing 33 million since March, the nation’s near-term economic outlook hinges on whether patchwork reopenings can mend the coronavirus pandemic’s damage — and how soon. | With unemployment claims surpassing 33 million since March, the nation’s near-term economic outlook hinges on whether patchwork reopenings can mend the coronavirus pandemic’s damage — and how soon. |
| Nearly 3.2 million were added to state jobless rolls last week, the Labor Department said Thursday, and economists expect the monthly jobs report on Friday to put the April unemployment rate at 15 percent or higher — a Depression-era level. | Nearly 3.2 million were added to state jobless rolls last week, the Labor Department said Thursday, and economists expect the monthly jobs report on Friday to put the April unemployment rate at 15 percent or higher — a Depression-era level. |
| But even a figure of that magnitude will almost certainly understate the calamity. Officials in some states say more than a quarter of their work force is unemployed. And experts say it is impossible to calculate how many jobs might come back as states lift shelter-in-place rules. | But even a figure of that magnitude will almost certainly understate the calamity. Officials in some states say more than a quarter of their work force is unemployed. And experts say it is impossible to calculate how many jobs might come back as states lift shelter-in-place rules. |
| “We don’t know what normal is going to look like,” said Martha Gimbel, an economist and a labor market expert at Schmidt Futures, a philanthropic initiative. | “We don’t know what normal is going to look like,” said Martha Gimbel, an economist and a labor market expert at Schmidt Futures, a philanthropic initiative. |
| The biggest questions are how many workers will be willing to go back, how many businesses will have full-time jobs for them, and how quickly customers will return to the shopping and spending habits that stoke the consumer-driven economy. | The biggest questions are how many workers will be willing to go back, how many businesses will have full-time jobs for them, and how quickly customers will return to the shopping and spending habits that stoke the consumer-driven economy. |
| In addition to weighing the risk of exposure to the virus, some laid-off workers face the prospect of making less on the job than they do on unemployment — including a temporary $600 weekly supplement enacted in a flurry of federal emergency legislation. | In addition to weighing the risk of exposure to the virus, some laid-off workers face the prospect of making less on the job than they do on unemployment — including a temporary $600 weekly supplement enacted in a flurry of federal emergency legislation. |
| At the same time, many employers may not survive, particularly small ones, while others are likely to operate with reduced hours and staff. And most Americans remain uneasy about the moves to reopen, with 67 percent saying they would be uncomfortable going into a store and 78 percent saying they would be uncomfortable eating at a restaurant, according to a survey that The Washington Post and the University of Maryland released this week. | At the same time, many employers may not survive, particularly small ones, while others are likely to operate with reduced hours and staff. And most Americans remain uneasy about the moves to reopen, with 67 percent saying they would be uncomfortable going into a store and 78 percent saying they would be uncomfortable eating at a restaurant, according to a survey that The Washington Post and the University of Maryland released this week. |
| “States want to relaunch their economies, but they’re going to be doing so in an environment of high unemployment, reduced income and fear,” said Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. “It’s not a matter of saying, ‘Hey, go out and spend.’ It’s a matter of people being able to and wanting to.” | “States want to relaunch their economies, but they’re going to be doing so in an environment of high unemployment, reduced income and fear,” said Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. “It’s not a matter of saying, ‘Hey, go out and spend.’ It’s a matter of people being able to and wanting to.” |
| While restaurant, travel, hospitality and retail workers were among the first to lose their jobs, layoffs have become more widespread in recent weeks, affecting engineers at Uber, advertising account executives at Omnicom, designers at Airbnb and other office employees. | While restaurant, travel, hospitality and retail workers were among the first to lose their jobs, layoffs have become more widespread in recent weeks, affecting engineers at Uber, advertising account executives at Omnicom, designers at Airbnb and other office employees. |
| “We’re still seeing a massive wave of layoffs taking over the U.S. economy,” Mr. Daco said. He described the latest job losses as a “secondary wave of the coronavirus recession.” | “We’re still seeing a massive wave of layoffs taking over the U.S. economy,” Mr. Daco said. He described the latest job losses as a “secondary wave of the coronavirus recession.” |
| The different speeds of a return to everyday commerce were evident Thursday in Michigan, where Gov. Gretchen Whitmer said factories could reopen next week but extended the closing of nonessential businesses — and an order for residents to venture outside only for essential purposes — from mid-May until May 28. | The different speeds of a return to everyday commerce were evident Thursday in Michigan, where Gov. Gretchen Whitmer said factories could reopen next week but extended the closing of nonessential businesses — and an order for residents to venture outside only for essential purposes — from mid-May until May 28. |
| Utah began reopening businesses last Friday, so jobless claims filed this week “might be the first indication of some change,” Brooke Porter Coles, a spokeswoman for the Utah Department of Workforce Services, said in an email. “It’s just too early to tell.” | Utah began reopening businesses last Friday, so jobless claims filed this week “might be the first indication of some change,” Brooke Porter Coles, a spokeswoman for the Utah Department of Workforce Services, said in an email. “It’s just too early to tell.” |
| Alaska was one of the first to begin reopening its economy, allowing limited gatherings at graduations, day camps, gyms and other sites starting on April 24. But officials there are nervous about the summer, when 86 percent of the state’s visitors arrive, mostly on cruise ships. Several major cruise lines have canceled trips to Alaska through the end of the year, and many seasonal jobs are expected not to materialize. | Alaska was one of the first to begin reopening its economy, allowing limited gatherings at graduations, day camps, gyms and other sites starting on April 24. But officials there are nervous about the summer, when 86 percent of the state’s visitors arrive, mostly on cruise ships. Several major cruise lines have canceled trips to Alaska through the end of the year, and many seasonal jobs are expected not to materialize. |
| Nonetheless, as restrictions are lifted, employees who refuse calls to return to work without “good cause” will lose access to unemployment benefits, state officials have said. | Nonetheless, as restrictions are lifted, employees who refuse calls to return to work without “good cause” will lose access to unemployment benefits, state officials have said. |
| Pockets of labor demand have been driven by the pandemic. Amazon said it would hire 100,000 warehouse and delivery workers, and retailers like Walmart and Lowe’s said they were filling tens of thousands of positions. The staffing company ManpowerGroup reported more than five million openings this week for new or existing jobs, notably in logistics, health, sales, information technology and accounting. | Pockets of labor demand have been driven by the pandemic. Amazon said it would hire 100,000 warehouse and delivery workers, and retailers like Walmart and Lowe’s said they were filling tens of thousands of positions. The staffing company ManpowerGroup reported more than five million openings this week for new or existing jobs, notably in logistics, health, sales, information technology and accounting. |
| But Mr. Daco said many across the country who had managed to stay on a payroll had lower incomes. A lot of companies have scheduled them to work part time, reduced wages or deferred paychecks. Others are experimenting with job sharing. | But Mr. Daco said many across the country who had managed to stay on a payroll had lower incomes. A lot of companies have scheduled them to work part time, reduced wages or deferred paychecks. Others are experimenting with job sharing. |
| Michele Capamaggio, 38, said she returned to her retail job in a small North Carolina town on Wednesday to avoid being put on a flexible schedule or fired, losing access to her benefits. The store is limiting its open hours, so she is earning a fraction of the income she received from the government while furloughed. | Michele Capamaggio, 38, said she returned to her retail job in a small North Carolina town on Wednesday to avoid being put on a flexible schedule or fired, losing access to her benefits. The store is limiting its open hours, so she is earning a fraction of the income she received from the government while furloughed. |
| “Basically, I had to go back,” Ms. Capamaggio said over direct messages on Twitter during a 30-minute work break. “Just hurts that I could be making $900 a week at home but will only make $500 a week busting my butt at work and putting myself at risk.” | “Basically, I had to go back,” Ms. Capamaggio said over direct messages on Twitter during a 30-minute work break. “Just hurts that I could be making $900 a week at home but will only make $500 a week busting my butt at work and putting myself at risk.” |
| Updated July 7, 2020 | |
| The coronavirus can stay aloft for hours in tiny droplets in stagnant air, infecting people as they inhale, mounting scientific evidence suggests. This risk is highest in crowded indoor spaces with poor ventilation, and may help explain super-spreading events reported in meatpacking plants, churches and restaurants. It’s unclear how often the virus is spread via these tiny droplets, or aerosols, compared with larger droplets that are expelled when a sick person coughs or sneezes, or transmitted through contact with contaminated surfaces, said Linsey Marr, an aerosol expert at Virginia Tech. Aerosols are released even when a person without symptoms exhales, talks or sings, according to Dr. Marr and more than 200 other experts, who have outlined the evidence in an open letter to the World Health Organization. | |
| Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. | Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. |
| Scientists around the country have tried to identify everyday materials that do a good job of filtering microscopic particles. In recent tests, HEPA furnace filters scored high, as did vacuum cleaner bags, fabric similar to flannel pajamas and those of 600-count pillowcases. Other materials tested included layered coffee filters and scarves and bandannas. These scored lower, but still captured a small percentage of particles. | Scientists around the country have tried to identify everyday materials that do a good job of filtering microscopic particles. In recent tests, HEPA furnace filters scored high, as did vacuum cleaner bags, fabric similar to flannel pajamas and those of 600-count pillowcases. Other materials tested included layered coffee filters and scarves and bandannas. These scored lower, but still captured a small percentage of particles. |
| A commentary published this month on the website of the British Journal of Sports Medicine points out that covering your face during exercise “comes with issues of potential breathing restriction and discomfort” and requires “balancing benefits versus possible adverse events.” Masks do alter exercise, says Cedric X. Bryant, the president and chief science officer of the American Council on Exercise, a nonprofit organization that funds exercise research and certifies fitness professionals. “In my personal experience,” he says, “heart rates are higher at the same relative intensity when you wear a mask.” Some people also could experience lightheadedness during familiar workouts while masked, says Len Kravitz, a professor of exercise science at the University of New Mexico. | A commentary published this month on the website of the British Journal of Sports Medicine points out that covering your face during exercise “comes with issues of potential breathing restriction and discomfort” and requires “balancing benefits versus possible adverse events.” Masks do alter exercise, says Cedric X. Bryant, the president and chief science officer of the American Council on Exercise, a nonprofit organization that funds exercise research and certifies fitness professionals. “In my personal experience,” he says, “heart rates are higher at the same relative intensity when you wear a mask.” Some people also could experience lightheadedness during familiar workouts while masked, says Len Kravitz, a professor of exercise science at the University of New Mexico. |
| The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth. | The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth. |
| The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave. | The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave. |
| So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. | So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. |
| Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. | Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. |
| A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. | A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. |
| If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) | If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) |
| If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. | If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. |
| Still, there are workers eager to return to their jobs. | Still, there are workers eager to return to their jobs. |
| Nicky Koutsoumbas, 19, earned more from government aid in April than she did in an average month working at a camera shop in Las Vegas, receiving $700 a week in unemployment benefits and $1,200 in stimulus money from the I.R.S. That helped pad her savings, which she hopes to use to move out of her parents’ house. | Nicky Koutsoumbas, 19, earned more from government aid in April than she did in an average month working at a camera shop in Las Vegas, receiving $700 a week in unemployment benefits and $1,200 in stimulus money from the I.R.S. That helped pad her savings, which she hopes to use to move out of her parents’ house. |
| “I thought about the money — it crossed my mind,” she said when the shop asked her to return this week. “But I want life to go back to normal, to go to work, to be surrounded by my co-workers, to have something to do.” | “I thought about the money — it crossed my mind,” she said when the shop asked her to return this week. “But I want life to go back to normal, to go to work, to be surrounded by my co-workers, to have something to do.” |
| But even as people like Ms. Koutsoumbas venture back into the work force, jobless claims keep pouring in. Unemployment offices have scrambled to hire more workers, upgrade computers and add call centers, but are still struggling to process the crush. Applicants complain they have trouble just getting into the system. Many who filed successfully for benefits say there are gaps in their payments, even if they certify their jobless status each week. | But even as people like Ms. Koutsoumbas venture back into the work force, jobless claims keep pouring in. Unemployment offices have scrambled to hire more workers, upgrade computers and add call centers, but are still struggling to process the crush. Applicants complain they have trouble just getting into the system. Many who filed successfully for benefits say there are gaps in their payments, even if they certify their jobless status each week. |
| Checks have also been slow in coming. | Checks have also been slow in coming. |
| Alexander Talley, 28, filed for unemployment benefits almost eight weeks ago, immediately after he was furloughed on March 13 from his serving job at a high-end restaurant in Palm Beach Gardens, Fla. He received nothing until April 28, when $1,300 in retroactive payments from the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity appeared in his bank account. | Alexander Talley, 28, filed for unemployment benefits almost eight weeks ago, immediately after he was furloughed on March 13 from his serving job at a high-end restaurant in Palm Beach Gardens, Fla. He received nothing until April 28, when $1,300 in retroactive payments from the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity appeared in his bank account. |
| So far, only 40 percent of the more than 1.2 million Floridians filing verified claims have begun to receive benefits. | So far, only 40 percent of the more than 1.2 million Floridians filing verified claims have begun to receive benefits. |
| “It was absolutely terrible,” Mr. Talley said of filing his claim and waiting for the payment. He didn’t have a laptop, so he had to conduct the process on his iPhone. Often, he said, he felt lost. “The only information I was able to find to keep myself from going absolutely crazy was Twitter and Facebook.” | “It was absolutely terrible,” Mr. Talley said of filing his claim and waiting for the payment. He didn’t have a laptop, so he had to conduct the process on his iPhone. Often, he said, he felt lost. “The only information I was able to find to keep myself from going absolutely crazy was Twitter and Facebook.” |
| He began receiving the weekly $600 federal supplement last week. | He began receiving the weekly $600 federal supplement last week. |
| His landlord threatened to end his month-to-month lease after he and his partner at the time were able to pay only a portion of April’s rent, so Mr. Talley’s father stepped in with the rest. His parents have sent Amazon and Publix gift cards and cash, and he has taken advantage of food giveaways of rice and pasta. A few weeks ago, he signed up for food stamps. | His landlord threatened to end his month-to-month lease after he and his partner at the time were able to pay only a portion of April’s rent, so Mr. Talley’s father stepped in with the rest. His parents have sent Amazon and Publix gift cards and cash, and he has taken advantage of food giveaways of rice and pasta. A few weeks ago, he signed up for food stamps. |
| “We don’t live a luxurious, lavish lifestyle by any means, but we take care of our bills and we keep the fridge full,” Mr. Talley said. “We went from that to instantly not knowing where our income is coming from.” | “We don’t live a luxurious, lavish lifestyle by any means, but we take care of our bills and we keep the fridge full,” Mr. Talley said. “We went from that to instantly not knowing where our income is coming from.” |
| Keeping their residents afloat while the economy is shut down is putting enormous strain on states. Nine, including California, Illinois, New York, Ohio and Texas, have borrowed from the federal government to reinforce their unemployment insurance trust funds. In the wake of the last recession, 36 states had to borrow $40 billion. | Keeping their residents afloat while the economy is shut down is putting enormous strain on states. Nine, including California, Illinois, New York, Ohio and Texas, have borrowed from the federal government to reinforce their unemployment insurance trust funds. In the wake of the last recession, 36 states had to borrow $40 billion. |
| “States will be able to make these payments but will spend many years paying off these debts,” said Jared Walczak, director of state tax policy at the Tax Foundation. “Employers are going to have to pay higher taxes in the future” to repay those debts, which could be a drag during a recovery, he said. | “States will be able to make these payments but will spend many years paying off these debts,” said Jared Walczak, director of state tax policy at the Tax Foundation. “Employers are going to have to pay higher taxes in the future” to repay those debts, which could be a drag during a recovery, he said. |