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For Canada, Finding a Vaccine Will Only Be Part of the Equation For Canada, Finding a Vaccine Will Only Be Part of the Equation
(3 days later)
As many provinces ease up on some coronavirus restrictions — notably in Quebec, which has decided to reopen some schools — the discussion about vaccines has been increasing.As many provinces ease up on some coronavirus restrictions — notably in Quebec, which has decided to reopen some schools — the discussion about vaccines has been increasing.
Public health officials in Canada and elsewhere have been cautioning against getting hopes up over a full return to normalcy until either a vaccine is widely available or an effective treatment for Covid-19 is developed. This must also be combined with rigorous testing and contact tracing.Public health officials in Canada and elsewhere have been cautioning against getting hopes up over a full return to normalcy until either a vaccine is widely available or an effective treatment for Covid-19 is developed. This must also be combined with rigorous testing and contact tracing.
While vaccines have long been part of medicine, developing specific ones and making sure they are safe is neither speedy nor simple. Stuart A. Thompson, a fellow Canadian who grew up in Burlington, Ontario, and who is now a writer and graphics director over on the Opinion side of The Times, recently polled vaccine experts about what it would take to accelerate that development, and created a series of interactive graphics illustrating the effects of various assumptions.While vaccines have long been part of medicine, developing specific ones and making sure they are safe is neither speedy nor simple. Stuart A. Thompson, a fellow Canadian who grew up in Burlington, Ontario, and who is now a writer and graphics director over on the Opinion side of The Times, recently polled vaccine experts about what it would take to accelerate that development, and created a series of interactive graphics illustrating the effects of various assumptions.
[Read: How Long Will a Vaccine Really Take?][Read: How Long Will a Vaccine Really Take?]
I urge you to read the article and look at its graphics to get an informed sense of what lies ahead. But the quick newsletter version of Opinion’s finding is that most experts are skeptical about the 18-month timeline frequently being cited.I urge you to read the article and look at its graphics to get an informed sense of what lies ahead. But the quick newsletter version of Opinion’s finding is that most experts are skeptical about the 18-month timeline frequently being cited.
As Stuart points out, after 40 years of research into H.I.V., “here is what we have to show for our vaccine efforts: a few Phase 3 clinical trials, one of which actually made the disease worse, and another with a success rate of just 30 percent.”As Stuart points out, after 40 years of research into H.I.V., “here is what we have to show for our vaccine efforts: a few Phase 3 clinical trials, one of which actually made the disease worse, and another with a success rate of just 30 percent.”
Now that process has been frustrated because H.I.V. mutates significantly. The current coronavirus does not. But the history of H.I.V. vaccines is nevertheless a sobering caution.Now that process has been frustrated because H.I.V. mutates significantly. The current coronavirus does not. But the history of H.I.V. vaccines is nevertheless a sobering caution.
On the optimistic side, the Jenner Institute at Oxford University had a head start on developing a vaccine for the coronavirus that should allow it to start tests using 6,000 people by the end of the month.On the optimistic side, the Jenner Institute at Oxford University had a head start on developing a vaccine for the coronavirus that should allow it to start tests using 6,000 people by the end of the month.
[Read: In Race for a Coronavirus Vaccine, an Oxford Group Leaps Ahead][Read: In Race for a Coronavirus Vaccine, an Oxford Group Leaps Ahead]
Most experts assume that ultimately, the world will need several vaccines and perhaps a mix of different vaccine technologies. Canadian researchers in several provinces are among the scientists around the world putting in extra hours to develop a new coronavirus vaccine.Most experts assume that ultimately, the world will need several vaccines and perhaps a mix of different vaccine technologies. Canadian researchers in several provinces are among the scientists around the world putting in extra hours to develop a new coronavirus vaccine.
But when we do finally come up with one that’s effective and safe, Canada will face another major issue.But when we do finally come up with one that’s effective and safe, Canada will face another major issue.
“Even if tomorrow we had a vaccine available, we currently don’t have manufacturing capacity to produce it rapidly,” Volker Gerdts, director and chief executive of the Vaccine and Infectious Disease Organization’s International Vaccine Centre at University of Saskatchewan, told me this week.“Even if tomorrow we had a vaccine available, we currently don’t have manufacturing capacity to produce it rapidly,” Volker Gerdts, director and chief executive of the Vaccine and Infectious Disease Organization’s International Vaccine Centre at University of Saskatchewan, told me this week.
Dr. Gerdts’s labs are among those in Canada working on a vaccine. They also received 12 million Canadian dollars from the federal government to certify that their manufacturing systems can safely produce vaccines for humans.Dr. Gerdts’s labs are among those in Canada working on a vaccine. They also received 12 million Canadian dollars from the federal government to certify that their manufacturing systems can safely produce vaccines for humans.
Canada, Dr. Gerdts told me, relies on imports for many vaccines. And while the country has several labs that can make vaccines, many of them concentrated in the Montreal area, Dr. Gerdts estimated their combined capacity at just a few million doses a month.Canada, Dr. Gerdts told me, relies on imports for many vaccines. And while the country has several labs that can make vaccines, many of them concentrated in the Montreal area, Dr. Gerdts estimated their combined capacity at just a few million doses a month.
“It’s going to take some time before we have enough vaccine for everyone,” he said.“It’s going to take some time before we have enough vaccine for everyone,” he said.
Several factors will affect that timeline. Research groups are exploring new approaches to vaccines that will be more time consuming to make in large volumes, for example.Several factors will affect that timeline. Research groups are exploring new approaches to vaccines that will be more time consuming to make in large volumes, for example.
And while the government is funding projects to increase the country’s vaccine manufacturing capacity, Dr. Gerdts cautioned that even the testing his lab is now doing, to show that production will be safe and effective, can’t be hurried without substantial risk. He estimated that the University of Saskatchewan won’t be able to start vaccine production for about 18 months.And while the government is funding projects to increase the country’s vaccine manufacturing capacity, Dr. Gerdts cautioned that even the testing his lab is now doing, to show that production will be safe and effective, can’t be hurried without substantial risk. He estimated that the University of Saskatchewan won’t be able to start vaccine production for about 18 months.
Many of the proposed vaccines, including the one being developed in Saskatoon, will be made in fermenting tanks if they prove to be effective and safe. That’s led to suggestions that breweries and distilleries, factories with very large fermenters already in place, could be transformed into vaccine factories.Many of the proposed vaccines, including the one being developed in Saskatoon, will be made in fermenting tanks if they prove to be effective and safe. That’s led to suggestions that breweries and distilleries, factories with very large fermenters already in place, could be transformed into vaccine factories.
But Dr. Gerdts dismissed that idea, saying that it would be impossible to clean them sufficiently to safely produce vaccines.But Dr. Gerdts dismissed that idea, saying that it would be impossible to clean them sufficiently to safely produce vaccines.
“Just imagine you had a vaccine and you had a fungus growing in it because you had some fungal spores in that room,” he said. “It would be a disaster.”“Just imagine you had a vaccine and you had a fungus growing in it because you had some fungal spores in that room,” he said. “It would be a disaster.”
Updated June 12, 2020Updated June 12, 2020
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement.So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement.
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.
The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.
Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.
Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.
States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.
The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing.The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing.
If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested.If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested.
And if that’s not enough of a delay, Dr. Gerdts said that once vaccines become available, setting up operations to make them won’t be just a matter of following a recipe.And if that’s not enough of a delay, Dr. Gerdts said that once vaccines become available, setting up operations to make them won’t be just a matter of following a recipe.
Canadians, Dr. Gerdts said, will need patience when it comes to a coronavirus vaccine.Canadians, Dr. Gerdts said, will need patience when it comes to a coronavirus vaccine.
“We don’t want to panic people and say even if we have vaccine, there is not going to be enough for you so and get your gun now and make sure you get in line,” he said. “We don’t want to get to that point. But I think what we all understand is that Canada needs more manufacturing capacity and that’s being recognized. And I think this is a good exercise for when the next pandemic comes.”“We don’t want to panic people and say even if we have vaccine, there is not going to be enough for you so and get your gun now and make sure you get in line,” he said. “We don’t want to get to that point. But I think what we all understand is that Canada needs more manufacturing capacity and that’s being recognized. And I think this is a good exercise for when the next pandemic comes.”
Finally, James Gorman, The Times’s science writer at large, reports that we may all develop a case of the summertime blues. A study by scientists at the University of Toronto and in Switzerland is the latest to conclude that the return of warm weather won’t drive away the virus.Finally, James Gorman, The Times’s science writer at large, reports that we may all develop a case of the summertime blues. A study by scientists at the University of Toronto and in Switzerland is the latest to conclude that the return of warm weather won’t drive away the virus.
[Read: Summer Is Coming, but the Virus Won’t Be Going][Read: Summer Is Coming, but the Virus Won’t Be Going]
A plan by a corporate sibling of Google to build a data-driven, sensor-laden city of tomorrow within Toronto was hailed by some and condemned by others as an undemocratic next step in “surveillance capitalism.” Now, almost three years and $50 million later, the urban development branch of the tech giant has called it quits.A plan by a corporate sibling of Google to build a data-driven, sensor-laden city of tomorrow within Toronto was hailed by some and condemned by others as an undemocratic next step in “surveillance capitalism.” Now, almost three years and $50 million later, the urban development branch of the tech giant has called it quits.
Prince Edward Island is still turning away outsiders because of the pandemic. But this international real estate column looks forward to a return to normal, offering guidance on buying in Canada’s smallest province.Prince Edward Island is still turning away outsiders because of the pandemic. But this international real estate column looks forward to a return to normal, offering guidance on buying in Canada’s smallest province.
The Asian giant hornet, notorious for its searing sting, is being hunted down in North America after a hive was found on Vancouver Island.The Asian giant hornet, notorious for its searing sting, is being hunted down in North America after a hive was found on Vancouver Island.
A native of Windsor, Ontario, Ian Austen was educated in Toronto, lives in Ottawa and has reported about Canada for The New York Times for the past 16 years. Follow him on Twitter at @ianrausten.A native of Windsor, Ontario, Ian Austen was educated in Toronto, lives in Ottawa and has reported about Canada for The New York Times for the past 16 years. Follow him on Twitter at @ianrausten.
We’re eager to have your thoughts about this newsletter and events in Canada in general. Please send them to nytcanada@nytimes.com.We’re eager to have your thoughts about this newsletter and events in Canada in general. Please send them to nytcanada@nytimes.com.
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