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Doctors warn of second coronavirus wave as UK lockdown weakens
Doctors and police warn of new coronavirus wave as UK lockdown weakens
(about 7 hours later)
Senior medics say ‘stay alert’ message is confusing and risks triggering more infections
Federation warns of ‘impossibility’ of policing as medics say ‘stay alert’ line risks triggering more infections
Senior doctors fear that growing non-compliance with the lockdown risks triggering a second wave of Covid-19 infections.
Doctors and police reacted to the government’s new “stay alert” slogan and Boris Johnson’s lockdown-easing measures with warnings of growing non-compliance and the “impossibility” of policing .
They also believe that Boris Johnson’s decision to start urging people to “stay alert” rather than “stay home” will confuse the public and make it even harder to enforce the restrictions on movement designed to save lives and protect the NHS.
The Police Federation, representing 120,000 rank-and-file officers, attacked a “week of mixed messages” from ministers, fuelled by media speculation, while medical experts said they increasingly expected to see a second spike in infections.
Intensive care doctors are warning that “irresponsible” behaviour, such as people ignoring the rules to stay 2 metres apart during Friday’s VE Day anniversary celebrations, could lead to the numbers of people needing to be taken to hospital with the disease going up again.
New guidance is hurriedly being drawn up for officers around the country about the new rules set out by the prime minister, and what they should and should not police.
Dr David Hepburn, an intensive consultant in Wales, tweeted: “Just watched the conga lines/street parties on the news. The nation has lost its fucking mind. We’re strapping in for the second wave.
John Apter, national chair of the Police Federation of England and Wales, said: “Police officers will continue to do their best, but their work must be based on crystal clear guidance, not loose rules that are left open to interpretation – because that will be grossly unfair on officers whose job is already challenging. If the message of what is expected of the public is not clear then it will make the job of policing this legislation almost impossible.”
“I’m so, so tired, and so pissed off. We’ve had a few days of respite and I was starting to feel hopeful. Can’t believe I was so naïve.”
Prof Dame Til Wykes of the Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience at King’s College London said the new communication strategy was “woolly” and would hinder progress against the coronavirus.
Dr Ami Jones, another ICU specialist, tweeted a link to a table showing that the UK has the highest death rate in the world from Covid-19, even higher than the US.
She said: “The communication plan of ‘stay alert, control the virus and save lives’ – unlike the first step in the plan – is very confused. We need clear rules and messages that are concise, clear and accurate. This is just short.
She said: “Showing our supremacy in the world stats as we irresponsibly flout lockdown to celebrate VE Day in the worst fashion. Glad I’ve had a couple of weeks away from ITU to recuperate as the next wave is going to make this horrific statistic even worse. Things are about to get busy.”
“A woolly message will hinder – not promote – the next phase of this lockdown. The previous message to ‘stay home’ was at least clear. What does ‘stay alert’ mean? It will just be confusing, be open to misinterpretation and likely to increase risky behaviour. That means taking risks that will affect everyone and increase infections.”
Challenged about the accuracy of the graph, Jones replied: “I think it’s useful to show that we are nowhere near beating this, yet people are behaving like all of the risk is gone and life can go back to normal. Couldn’t be further from normal.”
Dr Michael Head, a senior research fellow in global health at Southampton University, said: “For these revisions [to government strategy] to be successful, we need consistent communications from the government, and the new ‘stay alert’ messaging is ambiguous and lacks clarity.”
Dr Mark Forrest, an intensive care doctor in the north-west of England, said he was “seriously worried” that ignoring the lockdown would increase the pressure on units like his.
Prof Sir Simon Wessely, former president of the Royal College of Psychiatrists, said the problem with “stay alert” was that “it’s hard to be clear what that means, as opposed to ‘stay inside’”.
He tweeted: “Our ICU already has more Covid cases than 2 weeks ago as more people go out. Ignoring lockdown has us seriously worried for the next few weeks.”
Having seen photos and video showing a lack of physical distancing at VE Day street parties on Friday – including a conga line – and in parks over the weekend, intensive care doctors shared concerns on social media that more people would end up in hospital with coronavirus.
Their concern follows media coverage of people gathering in large groups on Friday, and in one case doing a mass conga, to celebrate the 75th anniversary of VE Day and also of large numbers of people sunbathing and picnicking on Saturday in London Fields in Hackney, east London.
Dr David Hepburn, an intensive care consultant in Wales, tweeted: “Just watched the conga lines/street parties on the news. The nation has lost its fucking mind. We’re strapping in for the second wave. I’m so, so tired, and so pissed off. We’ve had a few days of respite and I was starting to feel hopeful. Can’t believe I was so naive.”
Police officers are also voicing intense frustration at public behaviour. The scenes in London Fields led police to tweet: “We’re fighting a losing battle on patrol today. Literally hundreds of people sitting having pizza, beers, wines.”The Metropolitan Police Federation, which represents rank-and-file officers in the capital, has also criticised the government’s “wishy-washy” response to the pandemic. Tougher measures were needed from the start, it said.
Dr Ami Jones, another intensive care specialist, tweeted a link to a table showing the UK with the highest death rate in the world from the disease. She said: “Showing our supremacy in the world stats as we irresponsibly flout lockdown to celebrate VE Day in the worst fashion. Glad I’ve had a couple of weeks away from ITU to recuperate as the next wave is going to make this horrific statistic even worse. Things are about to get busy.”
And senior police officer who survived a spell in intensive care with Covid-19 has criticised the public’s “increasingly blasé” attitude towards observing the lockdown.
Large numbers of people sunbathing and picnicking on Saturday in London Fields in Hackney, east London, led local police to tweet that they were “fighting a losing battle” with the public over their behaviour.
Chief Supt Phil Dolby of West Midlands police tweeted: “A month ago today, on a ventilator & in a coma, I started to breath for myself! I am v disturbed by the increasingly blasé way ppl are treating the lockdown. With lack of answers around immunity, my family & I are going to remain shielding. I can’t go thru that again. #Covid19”.
A senior police officer who survived a spell in intensive care with Covid-19 criticised the public’s attitude towards observing the lockdown. Ch Supt Phil Dolby, of West Midlands police, wrote on Twitter: “A month ago today, on a ventilator and in a coma, I started to breathe for myself. I am very disturbed by the increasingly blasé way [people] are treating the lockdown. With lack of answers around immunity, my family and I are going to remain shielding. I can’t go through that again.”
Police in some areas reported the lockdown was already this weekend weakening and blamed mixed messaging from government.
One chief constable told the Guardian: “There is far less compliance following mixed government messaging. It will be difficult to police anything other than large groups if freedom of movement is increased. What does that mean to people? It will be ignored. 90% ish doing the right thing at present. That will reduce dramatically over the coming weeks.”
One chief constable told The Guardian he and colleagues feared it was already in danger of breaking down and key planks of the lockdown could become pointless and impossible to police: “There is far less compliance following mixed government messaging. It will be difficult to police anything other than large groups if freedom of movement is increased. What does that mean to people? It will be ignored. 90 per cent ish doing the right thing at present. That will reduce dramatically over the coming weeks.”
Senior police sources believe significant parts of their role in enforcing the lockdown are effectively over, other than policing large groups. “Impossible,” said one senior source.
Another senior officer said: “If whatever the PM sets out tonight is not crystal clear as to exactly what is meant it will be very hard to enforce. The weekend has been incredibly busy with house parties, street gatherings, domestic abuse, public disorder.
“I believe the media reporting last week about easing of lockdown from Monday and then the last-minute messaging from government to say don’t expect a lot of changes … didn’t help.”
One police force reported a 40% increase in the number of calls over the bank holiday weekend.
Medical experts are also voicing deep unease about the government’s change in strategy in switching to “stay alert” rather than “stay home” as a key message, which the prime minister will formally unveil in his televised address at 7pm this evening about easing the lockdown
“We haven’t yet had a formal announcement of this, but if it is indeed ‘stay alert’, it’s hard to be clear what that means, as opposed to ‘stay inside’,” said Prof Simon Wessely, the regius professor of psychiatry at King’s College London (KCL) and director of the Health Protection Research Unit in Emergency Preparedness and Response.
“Research in similar situations shows that what the public most want is specific guidance on what to do and what not to do. I am not sure how this answers that,” added Wessely, an ex-president of the Royal College of Psychiatrists.
Prof Til Wykes, the vice-dean of the institute of psychiatry, psychology and neuroscience at KCL, said “stay alert” would lead to more risky behaviour. “The one thing that helps the population is clear, concise and accurate messaging. This one is concise only,” she said.
“The previous message to ‘stay home’ was at least clear. What does ‘stay alert’ mean? It will just be confusing, be open to misinterpretation and likely to increase risky behaviour. That means taking risks that will affect everyone and increase infections.”
