'The Airline Business Is Terrible. It Will Probably Get Even Worse.' diff viewer (1/2)

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The Airline Business Is Terrible. It Will Probably Get Even Worse.	The Airline Business Is Terrible. It Will Probably Get Even Worse.
2020-06-04 14:28:17 UTC	2020-06-05 20:23:04 UTC (1 day later)
Delta Air Lines started 2020 celebrating what it said was the most successful year in company history. Not long after, it shared a record $1.6 billion in profits with its 90,000 employees. But with air travel nearly shut down by the coronavirus, the airline is now bleeding money and will drop 10 more airports from its already skeletal network on Wednesday.	Delta Air Lines started 2020 celebrating what it said was the most successful year in company history. Not long after, it shared a record $1.6 billion in profits with its 90,000 employees. But with air travel nearly shut down by the coronavirus, the airline is now bleeding money and will drop 10 more airports from its already skeletal network on Wednesday.
Even as Delta and the other major airlines in the United States dramatically slash schedules, they are averaging an anemic 23 passengers on each domestic flight and losing $350 million to $400 million a day as expenses like payroll, rent and aircraft maintenance far exceed the money they are bringing in. Passenger traffic is down about 94 percent and half of the industry’s 6,215 planes are parked at major airports and desert airstrips, according to Airlines for America, a trade group.	Even as Delta and the other major airlines in the United States dramatically slash schedules, they are averaging an anemic 23 passengers on each domestic flight and losing $350 million to $400 million a day as expenses like payroll, rent and aircraft maintenance far exceed the money they are bringing in. Passenger traffic is down about 94 percent and half of the industry’s 6,215 planes are parked at major airports and desert airstrips, according to Airlines for America, a trade group.
Yet, devastating as the downturn has been, the future is even more bleak. With much of the world closed for business, and no widely available vaccine in sight, it may be months, if not years, before airlines operate as many flights as they did before the crisis. Even when people start flying again, the industry could be transformed, much as it was after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. And airline executives need only look in the not-distant past to see how lesser crises sank carriers that were household names like Pan Am and Trans World Airlines.	Yet, devastating as the downturn has been, the future is even more bleak. With much of the world closed for business, and no widely available vaccine in sight, it may be months, if not years, before airlines operate as many flights as they did before the crisis. Even when people start flying again, the industry could be transformed, much as it was after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. And airline executives need only look in the not-distant past to see how lesser crises sank carriers that were household names like Pan Am and Trans World Airlines.
The current crisis could push some airlines, especially smaller ones, into bankruptcy or make them takeover targets. Consumer fears about catching the virus on crowded planes could lead to reconfigured seating. Carriers may initially entice wary travelers with discounts, but if they can’t fill up flights, they may resort to raising ticket prices.	The current crisis could push some airlines, especially smaller ones, into bankruptcy or make them takeover targets. Consumer fears about catching the virus on crowded planes could lead to reconfigured seating. Carriers may initially entice wary travelers with discounts, but if they can’t fill up flights, they may resort to raising ticket prices.
Henry Harteveldt, president of Atmosphere Research Group, a travel analysis firm in San Francisco, said that carriers might continue to leave middle seats empty in coach “until they see demand exceed two-thirds of where it was before the pandemic.” Now, he said, “You can be benevolent. It’s easy to give away a product that you don’t have any demand for.”	Henry Harteveldt, president of Atmosphere Research Group, a travel analysis firm in San Francisco, said that carriers might continue to leave middle seats empty in coach “until they see demand exceed two-thirds of where it was before the pandemic.” Now, he said, “You can be benevolent. It’s easy to give away a product that you don’t have any demand for.”
To get through the next few months, airlines successfully lobbied for a huge federal rescue. But half of that money was intended to cover payroll and that will run out by the end of September. Few in the industry expect Congress or the public to tolerate another bailout. So, for now, airlines are preparing for a long, lonely fight for survival.	To get through the next few months, airlines successfully lobbied for a huge federal rescue. But half of that money was intended to cover payroll and that will run out by the end of September. Few in the industry expect Congress or the public to tolerate another bailout. So, for now, airlines are preparing for a long, lonely fight for survival.
No amount of foresight could have prepared the industry for the pandemic.	No amount of foresight could have prepared the industry for the pandemic.
Even Southwest Airlines, which reported its 47th consecutive year of profitability in January, expects to lose an average of $30 million to $35 million a day through June. American Airlines, the most indebted large company, is aiming to get its own losses down to $50 million a day by the end of next month. Delta and United Airlines, which were riding high after several profitable years, are prepared for a full year with virtually no passenger revenue.	Even Southwest Airlines, which reported its 47th consecutive year of profitability in January, expects to lose an average of $30 million to $35 million a day through June. American Airlines, the most indebted large company, is aiming to get its own losses down to $50 million a day by the end of next month. Delta and United Airlines, which were riding high after several profitable years, are prepared for a full year with virtually no passenger revenue.
“It would be naïve to believe we or anyone for that matter can accurately predict the course of this crisis or the recovery,” J. Scott Kirby, United’s president and incoming chief executive, told investors this month. “When we say plan for the worst and hope for the best, however, we really mean it.”	“It would be naïve to believe we or anyone for that matter can accurately predict the course of this crisis or the recovery,” J. Scott Kirby, United’s president and incoming chief executive, told investors this month. “When we say plan for the worst and hope for the best, however, we really mean it.”
To stem the bleeding, airlines have made deep cuts to every imaginable expense, closing dozens of airport lounges that were once considered critical to attracting well-heeled travelers like investment bankers, freezing hiring and bonuses, slashing advertising and technology budgets and postponing cabin renovations. American is taking its entire fleet of 34 Boeing 757s and nine Airbus A330-300s out of service years ahead of schedule. Southwest more than halved an order for the troubled Boeing 737 Max.	To stem the bleeding, airlines have made deep cuts to every imaginable expense, closing dozens of airport lounges that were once considered critical to attracting well-heeled travelers like investment bankers, freezing hiring and bonuses, slashing advertising and technology budgets and postponing cabin renovations. American is taking its entire fleet of 34 Boeing 757s and nine Airbus A330-300s out of service years ahead of schedule. Southwest more than halved an order for the troubled Boeing 737 Max.
And they’ve drastically cut their schedules, by as much 90 percent. Airlines could slash more flights, but have not for a multitude of reasons. Schedules are often set weeks in advance and many flight costs, including those for cabin crews and pilots, are fixed. In addition, the federal stimulus passed in March requires that airlines continue minimum service, and there are costs associated with parking aircraft, too. Still, even with few passengers, airlines are earning some money from the cargo they carry in the bellies of their planes.	And they’ve drastically cut their schedules, by as much 90 percent. Airlines could slash more flights, but have not for a multitude of reasons. Schedules are often set weeks in advance and many flight costs, including those for cabin crews and pilots, are fixed. In addition, the federal stimulus passed in March requires that airlines continue minimum service, and there are costs associated with parking aircraft, too. Still, even with few passengers, airlines are earning some money from the cargo they carry in the bellies of their planes.
Desperate to preserve cash, the airlines have also aggressively discouraged customers from seeking refunds, offering vouchers for future travel instead and attracting the ire of lawmakers. Legally, passengers are entitled to refunds for canceled flights and, at a hearing last week, Senator Richard Blumenthal, Democrat of Connecticut, described the practice of pushing vouchers instead as “misleading and sometimes deceptive.” Nicholas Calio, chief executive of the industry trade group Airlines for America, said that refunding all tickets could lead to bankruptcy.	Desperate to preserve cash, the airlines have also aggressively discouraged customers from seeking refunds, offering vouchers for future travel instead and attracting the ire of lawmakers. Legally, passengers are entitled to refunds for canceled flights and, at a hearing last week, Senator Richard Blumenthal, Democrat of Connecticut, described the practice of pushing vouchers instead as “misleading and sometimes deceptive.” Nicholas Calio, chief executive of the industry trade group Airlines for America, said that refunding all tickets could lead to bankruptcy.
The industry has leaned on employees for savings, too, getting more than 100,000 to voluntarily accept fewer hours, lower pay or early retirement. Payrolls have largely been spared the ax, for now, because Congress set aside $25 billion to pay workers through September as long as airlines refrain from imposing furloughs or pay cuts. But some airlines have already tested those limits, and executives have signaled that layoffs will come when those protections expire.	The industry has leaned on employees for savings, too, getting more than 100,000 to voluntarily accept fewer hours, lower pay or early retirement. Payrolls have largely been spared the ax, for now, because Congress set aside $25 billion to pay workers through September as long as airlines refrain from imposing furloughs or pay cuts. But some airlines have already tested those limits, and executives have signaled that layoffs will come when those protections expire.
Southwest’s chief executive, Gary Kelly, last month warned employees that if a dramatic rebound doesn’t materialize by July, the airline could shrink. It wasn’t a prediction, he said in a recorded message, but a recognition that the timing of the recovery is out of the company’s hands.	Southwest’s chief executive, Gary Kelly, last month warned employees that if a dramatic rebound doesn’t materialize by July, the airline could shrink. It wasn’t a prediction, he said in a recorded message, but a recognition that the timing of the recovery is out of the company’s hands.
“Our goal is to thrive,” he said. “The imperative here is to survive.”	“Our goal is to thrive,” he said. “The imperative here is to survive.”
There’s little indication that a recovery is coming soon. Most industry analysts and executives expect years to pass before airlines fly as many passengers as they did before the pandemic. Even then, a rebound may come in fits and starts, propelled by medical advancements, an economic rebound and shifts in the public’s tolerance for risk.	There’s little indication that a recovery is coming soon. Most industry analysts and executives expect years to pass before airlines fly as many passengers as they did before the pandemic. Even then, a rebound may come in fits and starts, propelled by medical advancements, an economic rebound and shifts in the public’s tolerance for risk.
Take China, for example. The number of domestic flights there started to recover in mid-February, but plateaued in early March at just over 40 percent of levels before the outbreak, according to the International Air Transport Association, a global industry group.	Take China, for example. The number of domestic flights there started to recover in mid-February, but plateaued in early March at just over 40 percent of levels before the outbreak, according to the International Air Transport Association, a global industry group.
Poll after poll has shown that the vast majority of people are likely to wait on the sidelines for quite some time. According to one recent survey by the Democracy Fund + U.C.L.A. Nationscape Project, 60 percent of people would “definitely or probably” not fly even if stay-at-home orders were lifted on the advice of public health officials.	Poll after poll has shown that the vast majority of people are likely to wait on the sidelines for quite some time. According to one recent survey by the Democracy Fund + U.C.L.A. Nationscape Project, 60 percent of people would “definitely or probably” not fly even if stay-at-home orders were lifted on the advice of public health officials.
“The airlines certainly need to get back into business but they’re going to be facing a public that’s going to be scared to travel,” Mr. Harteveldt said. “I think a lot of people all over the world are going to be wrestling with fear and trust.”	“The airlines certainly need to get back into business but they’re going to be facing a public that’s going to be scared to travel,” Mr. Harteveldt said. “I think a lot of people all over the world are going to be wrestling with fear and trust.”
Business travel may recover sooner, at least according to a survey of the members of the Global Business Travel Association that found that a majority of travel managers expect trips to restart in the coming months. Yet Mr. Kelly, of Southwest, told the PBS NewsHour that work travel would probably be depressed for years.	Business travel may recover sooner, at least according to a survey of the members of the Global Business Travel Association that found that a majority of travel managers expect trips to restart in the coming months. Yet Mr. Kelly, of Southwest, told the PBS NewsHour that work travel would probably be depressed for years.
~~Updated June 2, 2020~~	Updated June 5, 2020
	The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.
Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.	Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.
Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.	Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.
States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.	States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.	Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.	Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)	If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
More than 40 million people — the equivalent of 1 in 4 U.S. workers — have filed for unemployment benefits since the pandemic took hold. One in five who were working in February reported losing a job or being furloughed in March or the beginning of April, data from a Federal Reserve survey released on May 14 showed, and that pain was highly concentrated among low earners. Fully 39 percent of former workers living in a household earning $40,000 or less lost work, compared with 13 percent in those making more than $100,000, a Fed official said.
Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.	Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.
The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing.	The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing.
If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.	If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested.	If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested.
With so much out of their hands, airlines have focused instead on what they can control.	With so much out of their hands, airlines have focused instead on what they can control.
Since early March, the industry has steadily escalated efforts to convince passengers that planes are not flying petri dishes. Last week, United and Delta started requiring masks for passengers. On Monday, American and Southwest will do the same.	Since early March, the industry has steadily escalated efforts to convince passengers that planes are not flying petri dishes. Last week, United and Delta started requiring masks for passengers. On Monday, American and Southwest will do the same.
On Thursday, Frontier Airlines became the first U.S. company to announce that it would turn away passengers or crew members with a temperature of 100.4 degrees Fahrenheit or higher starting June 1. On Saturday, Airlines for America said its members, which include the major airlines, were calling on the federal government to take the temperatures of all travelers during the expanded security checks introduced after the Sept. 11 attacks.	On Thursday, Frontier Airlines became the first U.S. company to announce that it would turn away passengers or crew members with a temperature of 100.4 degrees Fahrenheit or higher starting June 1. On Saturday, Airlines for America said its members, which include the major airlines, were calling on the federal government to take the temperatures of all travelers during the expanded security checks introduced after the Sept. 11 attacks.
That event was once the industry’s defining crisis, a shock so severe that it took years for passengers to return and fundamentally changed flying. The current pandemic could do the same.	That event was once the industry’s defining crisis, a shock so severe that it took years for passengers to return and fundamentally changed flying. The current pandemic could do the same.
“If you think about everything that came out of 9/11, with T.S.A. and Homeland Security and new public agencies, could there be a new public health agency coming out that requires a new passport to travel?” Delta’s chief executive, Ed Bastian, said last month, referring to the Transportation Security Administration. “I don’t know. But we’ll be on the forefront of all those advances.”	“If you think about everything that came out of 9/11, with T.S.A. and Homeland Security and new public agencies, could there be a new public health agency coming out that requires a new passport to travel?” Delta’s chief executive, Ed Bastian, said last month, referring to the Transportation Security Administration. “I don’t know. But we’ll be on the forefront of all those advances.”