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Iranian Friendly Fire Kills 19 in 2nd Missile Accident of Year | Iranian Friendly Fire Kills 19 in 2nd Missile Accident of Year |
(about 8 hours later) | |
For the second time this year, Iran appears to have fired a missile at the wrong target with deadly consequences, raising questions about its ability to control its weapons and increasing tensions in the Persian Gulf. | |
On Sunday, a missile from an Iranian Navy frigate struck another Iranian naval vessel during a military exercise in the Gulf of Oman, killing at least 19 sailors and wounding 15, the navy said. | |
In January, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps shot down a Ukrainian Airlines passenger plane with two missiles, killing 176 passengers and crew members. Iran blamed human error for that shootdown. | |
Official details of the naval accident were scant on Monday, and it was not immediately clear whether it was the result of human error or faulty equipment. | |
But once again, an Iranian missile had gone astray and taken with it Iranian lives. | |
“This mistake appears to be beyond sloppy,” said Afshon Ostovar, assistant professor of national security affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, Calif. “There was either miscommunication or someone completely failed to follow protocols. Perhaps it was a combination of both.” | |
And that, Mr. Ostovar said, exposes the military’s inexperience and lack of professionalism. “However powerful it believes itself to be, it continues to make costly fundamental mistakes,” he said. | |
Four people with knowledge of the accident told The New York Times that the Jamaran, a frigate that is one of the prides of the Iranian fleet, had fired a missile that struck the Konarak, a missile boat, on Sunday. | |
By Tuesday morning, Iran had not offered an explanation for the accident, saying only that during military exercises the Konarak “had an incident and a number of the navy’s seamen were martyred.” | |
“The scope of the incident is under investigation by experts,” Iran’s Navy said in a statement. | “The scope of the incident is under investigation by experts,” Iran’s Navy said in a statement. |
The lack of information, even as Iranians mourned the dead crew members by sharing their photos and names on social media, had unmistakable echoes of the aftermath of the downed jetliner in January. Officials denied for days that Iran had fired the fatal missiles. | |
“Once again there is a lack of transparency in informing the public, bringing back bitter memories of shooting down the Ukrainian plane,” former Vice President Mohamad Ali Abtahi said Monday on Twitter. Of the 176 people killed in that accident, 146 were Iranian. | |
Iran’s military has come under intense global scrutiny since the Ukrainian plane was shot down, and trust in the government was already at an all-time low because of missteps in handling a severe outbreak of the coronavirus. | |
Iranians have criticized the government for not enforcing an early lockdown to battle the virus and not being transparent about the number of people infected. That led to an explosion of infections that made Iran a regional epicenter of the pandemic. | |
Reports of the latest accident drew criticism of the government on social media. | |
“Firing at your own targets, whether military or civil, in such a short space of time is not human error,” Maziar Khosravi, a journalist aligned with opposition politicians, wrote on Twitter. “It’s a catastrophic failure of management and command.” | “Firing at your own targets, whether military or civil, in such a short space of time is not human error,” Maziar Khosravi, a journalist aligned with opposition politicians, wrote on Twitter. “It’s a catastrophic failure of management and command.” |
Military experts said that Sunday’s episode was a significant setback for Iran’s navy and its ambitions to project itself as a power player in the Persian Gulf and beyond. Together with the downing of the Ukrainian airliner, it undermines the effort by Iran to present its military as a force capable of countering the United States and its regional allies. | |
“Iranian armed forces have a systemic problem with coordination and command and control, whether it's air defense or naval warfare, whether it’s the Revolutionary Guards or the army,” said Farzin Nadimi, an expert on Iranian military and naval operations in the Persian Gulf with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. | |
These mistakes, he said, raise the stakes for the United States and all fleets operating in the Persian Gulf and the adjoining Gulf of Oman, one of the busiest waterways in the world. | |
“Iran is an unpredictable enemy, and this adds to the uncertainty in the region,” Mr. Nadimi said. “The U.S. military will have to be more careful.” | |
The downing of the Ukrainian jetliner occurred during a time of high tension, and on a night when Iran launched ballistic missiles at American military targets in Iraq in retaliation for the assassination of a top general. Its forces were on high alert for an American response. | |
The friendly-fire episode on Sunday, by contrast, came during a planned naval exercise in the Sea of Oman, near the Iranian port city of Jask. | |
Iran routinely conducts military exercises in the Persian Gulf and Sea of Oman with a dual purpose: testing new domestically produced equipment and showcasing its military might as tensions between Washington and Tehran escalate and the threat of military conflict looms. | Iran routinely conducts military exercises in the Persian Gulf and Sea of Oman with a dual purpose: testing new domestically produced equipment and showcasing its military might as tensions between Washington and Tehran escalate and the threat of military conflict looms. |
Last month, President Trump wrote on Twitter that he had instructed the United States Navy to shoot at Iranian boats if they harassed American ships in the Persian Gulf. Iran threatened to retaliate if it came under attack. | |
Since Mr. Trump’s warning, Iran has placed its air defense forces on the highest alert and moved them to positions along its southern shores of the Persian Gulf, according to an Iranian military strategist. | |
The Konarak was hit as it was guiding a target out to the sea to help the Jamaran test-fire an anti-ship missile, according to Seyed Mohamad Razavi, a prominent media adviser to conservative politicians, and a Telegram channel affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards. | |
The Konarak had not sufficiently distanced itself from the target when the missile was fired, they said. Instead of hitting the target, the missile slammed into the Konarak’s stern. | |
Military experts said that either the officer in charge of launching the missile fired too soon, before the Konarak was safely out of range, or that the missile, with the capacity to determine its final target, identified the Konarak as the larger vessel and more immediate threat. | |
Experts said the exercise appeared to have violated several protocols used by militaries in the West for missile tests, which are rare because anti-ship missiles are expensive and testing at sea is dangerous. | |
When they do conduct a test, jets or drones scan the area from the air to make sure there are no other targets in the missile’s range. An expensive, heavily crewed warship would be unlikely to be used to tow the target into position to reduce the cost of any potential human error. And such tests are typically carried out with constant communication among the vessels and commanders in charge. | |
Iran’s navy appears to have failed to taken any of those measures, military experts said. | |
The consensus among experts both inside Iran and out was that these mistakes are happening at a time when Iran is striving to demonstrate resistance to the Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign, a combination of economic and military actions aimed at forcing Iran to accept a tougher nuclear deal and curb its regional military activities. | |
The chances of a mistake are high, they said, because Iran’s armed forces, particularly the Guards, are engaged in provocative behavior in the Persian Gulf, from downing U.S. drones to attacking oil tankers. | |
But if Iran’s goal was to be provocative, it succeeded. | |
“The U.S. Navy now knows that the Iran was testing an anti-ship missile,” Mr. Ostovar said. “This wasn’t a new missile, but the test was meant to send a political message. It was mostly like intended to be a signal and a threat to the United States Navy, and even though it backfired, it still signaled a degree of intent.” |