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Coronavirus: Care home deaths 'starting to decline' Coronavirus: Care home deaths 'starting to decline'
(about 2 hours later)
The number of coronavirus deaths in care homes across the UK has started to fall, figures show.The number of coronavirus deaths in care homes across the UK has started to fall, figures show.
Office for National Statistics data for England Wales showed 2,423 fatalities where the virus was mentioned on the death certificate in the week to 1 May. A review of death certificates showed there were 2,800 deaths linked to the virus in the most recent week - down 12% on the week before.
That is down from 2,800 the week before - Scotland has seen a similar trend. It brings the virus death toll in care homes to more than 9,700.
Since the epidemic started, more than 9,700 deaths in care homes in the UK have been linked to the virus - pushing overall fatalities to record levels. The data also showed that between mid March and early May more than 50,000 more deaths have been recorded than would be expected during this period.
This is known as excess deaths and is said to be a better measure of the true impact of epidemic as it measures deaths linked directly to the virus and others associated with the lockdown.
Have care home deaths peaked?
The number of hospital deaths have been falling since early April.The number of hospital deaths have been falling since early April.
But the government and care sector had been struggling to contain outbreaks in care homes.But the government and care sector had been struggling to contain outbreaks in care homes.
More people dying overall These figures - from the Office for National Statistics and its counterparts in Scotland and Northern Ireland - is the first sign that the corner may have been turned.
Despite the drop, the virus is still have a major impact on the overall number of deaths in care homes. While the government's daily figures contain deaths in care homes now, but the lack of testing particularly in the early days - that data requires infections to be diagnosed - has meant it has been hard to establish a trend.
The total number seen in the most recent week is still nearly three times higher than you would normally expect. Despite the drop, the virus has had a major impact on the overall number of deaths in care homes.
That means there a large number of deaths happening where the cause is unclear. The total number seen in recent weeks - 9,700 - is more than two times higher than you would normally expect.
One suggestion has been that the lack of testing in care homes has meant coronavirus has not always been listed on death certificates when it should. As well as the coronavirus deaths, there have been a large number of fatalities happening where the cause is unclear.
The government's daily figures also include care home deaths now, but the lack of testing particularly in the early days - that data requires infections to be diagnosed - has meant it has been hard to establish a trend. One suggestion has been that the lack of testing in care homes has meant the virus has not always been listed on death certificates when it should.
The ONS and its counterparts in Scotland and Northern Ireland also looked at the total number of deaths, including both those linked to coronavirus and those from other causes. Is 50,000 the true virus death toll?
Health experts have said this is perhaps the best measure of the impact of the virus as it captures both deaths linked to the virus and indirect deaths associated with lockdown. The 50,000 figure refers to the total number of extra deaths seen from mid March to May.
It showed there had been more than 50,000 excess deaths across the UK since mid March, around 50% more than would expect for this period. Normally during this period you would expect to see just under 100,000 deaths during this period.
But close to 150,000 deaths were actually recorded - 36,700 of them mentioned coronavirus on the death certificate.
That leaves another 14,000 extra deaths that may be related to epidemic in other ways, such as suicides or people who suffer heart attacks and strokes but have not accessed care.
The overall level of extra deaths in on par with the excess winter mortality seen two years ago, which covers a period of four months whereas this is less than two.