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Coronavirus Seemingly Tamed, Chinese Economy Starts to Recover Coronavirus Seemingly Tamed, Chinese Economy Starts to Recover
(7 days later)
BEIJING — China has turned its factories back on after bringing the coronavirus outbreak largely under control within its borders. The question now is who will buy the goods those factories make.BEIJING — China has turned its factories back on after bringing the coronavirus outbreak largely under control within its borders. The question now is who will buy the goods those factories make.
Industrial production surged last month in China more than twice as fast as most economists expected, according to official data released on Friday by the country’s National Bureau of Statistics. But retail sales fell even more sharply than anticipated, while orders for future exports from China have stalled.Industrial production surged last month in China more than twice as fast as most economists expected, according to official data released on Friday by the country’s National Bureau of Statistics. But retail sales fell even more sharply than anticipated, while orders for future exports from China have stalled.
Chinese officials are starting to acknowledge a mismatch as the economy reopens.Chinese officials are starting to acknowledge a mismatch as the economy reopens.
“The recovery of the production side may be slightly faster than the consumption side,” said Liu Aihua, the director general of the agency’s department of comprehensive statistics.“The recovery of the production side may be slightly faster than the consumption side,” said Liu Aihua, the director general of the agency’s department of comprehensive statistics.
The world is watching China’s economic performance closely. It is a couple of months ahead of the rest of the world in coping with the virus and then trying to reopen businesses. Its successes or stumbles could offer lessons to others.The world is watching China’s economic performance closely. It is a couple of months ahead of the rest of the world in coping with the virus and then trying to reopen businesses. Its successes or stumbles could offer lessons to others.
Despite signs of progress, the task remains formidable. The Chinese economy shrank in the first three months of this year for the first time since Mao died in 1976. Inventories of unsold goods are piling up. Shoppers are staying home. Factories are churning out clothes, toys and electronics faster than consumers in China or overseas want to buy them. As the virus spreads around, surveys of purchasing managers in China showed export orders plunging in April.Despite signs of progress, the task remains formidable. The Chinese economy shrank in the first three months of this year for the first time since Mao died in 1976. Inventories of unsold goods are piling up. Shoppers are staying home. Factories are churning out clothes, toys and electronics faster than consumers in China or overseas want to buy them. As the virus spreads around, surveys of purchasing managers in China showed export orders plunging in April.
“We should be aware that given the continuous spread of the epidemic abroad, the stability and recovery of the national economy is still faced with multiple challenges,” Ms. Liu said.“We should be aware that given the continuous spread of the epidemic abroad, the stability and recovery of the national economy is still faced with multiple challenges,” Ms. Liu said.
The difficulties are prompting more and more warnings that China — and possibly other countries after it — may face a “W-shaped” pattern of economic activity.The difficulties are prompting more and more warnings that China — and possibly other countries after it — may face a “W-shaped” pattern of economic activity.
In such a pattern, the economy nose-dives when most businesses close during lockdowns and then seems to recover when factories and stores reopen. But with many consumers still scared of infection and leery of spending money, the economy then dips a second time before embarking on a more sustainable recovery.In such a pattern, the economy nose-dives when most businesses close during lockdowns and then seems to recover when factories and stores reopen. But with many consumers still scared of infection and leery of spending money, the economy then dips a second time before embarking on a more sustainable recovery.
Many economists at Western financial institutions now say a second dip this summer is more likely than any other result and are predicting that Beijing will have to step up government spending to offset the further slowdown.Many economists at Western financial institutions now say a second dip this summer is more likely than any other result and are predicting that Beijing will have to step up government spending to offset the further slowdown.
“Supply is significantly outpacing demand,” said Larry Hu, the chief China economist at the Macquarie Group, an Australian financial conglomerate. “It requires stimulus to get China out of the second part of the ‘W.’”“Supply is significantly outpacing demand,” said Larry Hu, the chief China economist at the Macquarie Group, an Australian financial conglomerate. “It requires stimulus to get China out of the second part of the ‘W.’”
Finance Minister Liu Kun wrote in a column on Thursday in The People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party, that China should make more use of fiscal policy to maintain economic growth. It was the clearest signal yet that when the country’s legislature gathers at the end of next week in Beijing, China may unveil an expansionary budget that creates a larger deficit and approves issuing more government bonds.Finance Minister Liu Kun wrote in a column on Thursday in The People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party, that China should make more use of fiscal policy to maintain economic growth. It was the clearest signal yet that when the country’s legislature gathers at the end of next week in Beijing, China may unveil an expansionary budget that creates a larger deficit and approves issuing more government bonds.
The National People’s Congress is scheduled to convene for its annual session starting next Friday, 11 weeks after it is usually held. Beijing also announced on Friday that it would ease restrictions on banking and other financial services among Hong Kong and adjacent areas of mainland China in an attempt to increase economic growth there.The National People’s Congress is scheduled to convene for its annual session starting next Friday, 11 weeks after it is usually held. Beijing also announced on Friday that it would ease restrictions on banking and other financial services among Hong Kong and adjacent areas of mainland China in an attempt to increase economic growth there.
Some economists are already optimistic. According to the government’s China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, shipments of smartphones to stores and other retailers within China were up 17 percent in April from a year earlier. That strong demand suggests that tens of millions of Chinese had the wherewithal to upgrade their phones even after the pandemic faded, said Xu Sitao, the chief China economist at Deloitte.Some economists are already optimistic. According to the government’s China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, shipments of smartphones to stores and other retailers within China were up 17 percent in April from a year earlier. That strong demand suggests that tens of millions of Chinese had the wherewithal to upgrade their phones even after the pandemic faded, said Xu Sitao, the chief China economist at Deloitte.
Updated July 7, 2020 Updated July 15, 2020
The coronavirus can stay aloft for hours in tiny droplets in stagnant air, infecting people as they inhale, mounting scientific evidence suggests. This risk is highest in crowded indoor spaces with poor ventilation, and may help explain super-spreading events reported in meatpacking plants, churches and restaurants. It’s unclear how often the virus is spread via these tiny droplets, or aerosols, compared with larger droplets that are expelled when a sick person coughs or sneezes, or transmitted through contact with contaminated surfaces, said Linsey Marr, an aerosol expert at Virginia Tech. Aerosols are released even when a person without symptoms exhales, talks or sings, according to Dr. Marr and more than 200 other experts, who have outlined the evidence in an open letter to the World Health Organization.The coronavirus can stay aloft for hours in tiny droplets in stagnant air, infecting people as they inhale, mounting scientific evidence suggests. This risk is highest in crowded indoor spaces with poor ventilation, and may help explain super-spreading events reported in meatpacking plants, churches and restaurants. It’s unclear how often the virus is spread via these tiny droplets, or aerosols, compared with larger droplets that are expelled when a sick person coughs or sneezes, or transmitted through contact with contaminated surfaces, said Linsey Marr, an aerosol expert at Virginia Tech. Aerosols are released even when a person without symptoms exhales, talks or sings, according to Dr. Marr and more than 200 other experts, who have outlined the evidence in an open letter to the World Health Organization.
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
Scientists around the country have tried to identify everyday materials that do a good job of filtering microscopic particles. In recent tests, HEPA furnace filters scored high, as did vacuum cleaner bags, fabric similar to flannel pajamas and those of 600-count pillowcases. Other materials tested included layered coffee filters and scarves and bandannas. These scored lower, but still captured a small percentage of particles.Scientists around the country have tried to identify everyday materials that do a good job of filtering microscopic particles. In recent tests, HEPA furnace filters scored high, as did vacuum cleaner bags, fabric similar to flannel pajamas and those of 600-count pillowcases. Other materials tested included layered coffee filters and scarves and bandannas. These scored lower, but still captured a small percentage of particles.
A commentary published this month on the website of the British Journal of Sports Medicine points out that covering your face during exercise “comes with issues of potential breathing restriction and discomfort” and requires “balancing benefits versus possible adverse events.” Masks do alter exercise, says Cedric X. Bryant, the president and chief science officer of the American Council on Exercise, a nonprofit organization that funds exercise research and certifies fitness professionals. “In my personal experience,” he says, “heart rates are higher at the same relative intensity when you wear a mask.” Some people also could experience lightheadedness during familiar workouts while masked, says Len Kravitz, a professor of exercise science at the University of New Mexico.A commentary published this month on the website of the British Journal of Sports Medicine points out that covering your face during exercise “comes with issues of potential breathing restriction and discomfort” and requires “balancing benefits versus possible adverse events.” Masks do alter exercise, says Cedric X. Bryant, the president and chief science officer of the American Council on Exercise, a nonprofit organization that funds exercise research and certifies fitness professionals. “In my personal experience,” he says, “heart rates are higher at the same relative intensity when you wear a mask.” Some people also could experience lightheadedness during familiar workouts while masked, says Len Kravitz, a professor of exercise science at the University of New Mexico.
The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth.The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth.
The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave.The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave.
So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement.So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement.
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
As the world’s largest oil importer by a wide margin, China is also enjoying a huge windfall from the plunge in global oil prices. “China’s growth this year could surprise on the upside,” Mr. Xu said.As the world’s largest oil importer by a wide margin, China is also enjoying a huge windfall from the plunge in global oil prices. “China’s growth this year could surprise on the upside,” Mr. Xu said.
New coronavirus infections had largely disappeared in China by the start of last month, according to official reports. Only a dozen new, locally transmitted cases were officially acknowledged nationwide in the first week of April. Data suggest that practically all factories and many other types of businesses were open throughout last month.New coronavirus infections had largely disappeared in China by the start of last month, according to official reports. Only a dozen new, locally transmitted cases were officially acknowledged nationwide in the first week of April. Data suggest that practically all factories and many other types of businesses were open throughout last month.
Strong exports kept factories busy last month. Many industrial complexes were catching up during April on orders placed while Chinese cities were locked down.Strong exports kept factories busy last month. Many industrial complexes were catching up during April on orders placed while Chinese cities were locked down.
The country’s industrial production was up 3.9 percent from April of last year. Industrial production had been down 1.1 percent in March from a year earlier and had plunged in February, when the virus outbreak was at its worst in China.The country’s industrial production was up 3.9 percent from April of last year. Industrial production had been down 1.1 percent in March from a year earlier and had plunged in February, when the virus outbreak was at its worst in China.
But shopping and fixed-asset investment stayed weak. Retail sales were down 7.5 percent in April from a year earlier, marginally worse than economists’ expectations, although considerably better than sales in March.But shopping and fixed-asset investment stayed weak. Retail sales were down 7.5 percent in April from a year earlier, marginally worse than economists’ expectations, although considerably better than sales in March.
Tens of millions of migrant workers are unemployed. Estimates of overall unemployment run as high as 20 percent. Many white-collar workers have suffered pay cuts.Tens of millions of migrant workers are unemployed. Estimates of overall unemployment run as high as 20 percent. Many white-collar workers have suffered pay cuts.
“You can’t get people to spend money if they don’t have money or have a way to get it,” said George Magnus, an economist at the Oxford University China Center.“You can’t get people to spend money if they don’t have money or have a way to get it,” said George Magnus, an economist at the Oxford University China Center.