'When Shoppers Venture Out, What Will Be Left?' diff viewer (6/7)

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When Shoppers Venture Out, What Will Be Left?	When Shoppers Venture Out, What Will Be Left?
2020-06-09 00:30:55 UTC	2020-06-09 20:38:46 UTC (about 20 hours later)
The coronavirus pandemic dealt another crushing blow to retailers in April. Now the question is what the sector will look like as the economy reopens — and how much permanent damage has been inflicted.	The coronavirus pandemic dealt another crushing blow to retailers in April. Now the question is what the sector will look like as the economy reopens — and how much permanent damage has been inflicted.
Retail sales fell 16.4 percent last month, the Commerce Department said Friday, by far the largest monthly drop on record. That followed an 8.3 percent drop in March, the previous record. Total sales for April, which include retail purchases in stores and online as well as money spent at bars and restaurants, were the lowest since 2012, even without accounting for inflation.	Retail sales fell 16.4 percent last month, the Commerce Department said Friday, by far the largest monthly drop on record. That followed an 8.3 percent drop in March, the previous record. Total sales for April, which include retail purchases in stores and online as well as money spent at bars and restaurants, were the lowest since 2012, even without accounting for inflation.
Some of the declines in individual categories were staggering. Restaurants and bars lost half their business over two months. At furniture and home furnishings stores, sales were off by two-thirds. At clothing stores, the two-month decline was 89 percent. Increased sales from online retailers didn’t come close to offsetting the downturn elsewhere.	Some of the declines in individual categories were staggering. Restaurants and bars lost half their business over two months. At furniture and home furnishings stores, sales were off by two-thirds. At clothing stores, the two-month decline was 89 percent. Increased sales from online retailers didn’t come close to offsetting the downturn elsewhere.
April could prove to be the bottom for sales. The March figures were helped in part by panic buying, and stores were generally open for the first half of the month. Most states have begun to lift barriers to commerce and movement, and many economists expect spending to rise in May as people venture out.	April could prove to be the bottom for sales. The March figures were helped in part by panic buying, and stores were generally open for the first half of the month. Most states have begun to lift barriers to commerce and movement, and many economists expect spending to rise in May as people venture out.
But in contrast to the nearly vertical drop, any rebound is likely to be gradual. Big states like New York and California remain largely under lockdown, and businesses face significant restrictions elsewhere. Even as businesses reopen, there is no guarantee that customers will return in numbers previously seen.	But in contrast to the nearly vertical drop, any rebound is likely to be gradual. Big states like New York and California remain largely under lockdown, and businesses face significant restrictions elsewhere. Even as businesses reopen, there is no guarantee that customers will return in numbers previously seen.
And the financial system may be an added source of vulnerability as the economic downturn places strains on households and businesses, the Federal Reserve said Friday.	And the financial system may be an added source of vulnerability as the economic downturn places strains on households and businesses, the Federal Reserve said Friday.
“It’s probably fair to say the worst is over in terms of a collapse, unless there are waves of new outbreaks,” said Jim O’Sullivan, chief U.S. macro strategist for TD Securities. “But how fast does it come back? The short answer is none of us really know.”	“It’s probably fair to say the worst is over in terms of a collapse, unless there are waves of new outbreaks,” said Jim O’Sullivan, chief U.S. macro strategist for TD Securities. “But how fast does it come back? The short answer is none of us really know.”
The downturn appears to have left lasting scars on a retail industry that was already struggling. J. Crew and Neiman Marcus have filed for bankruptcy protection, followed Friday by J.C. Penney, a 118-year-old chain with more than 800 stores and nearly 85,000 employees.	The downturn appears to have left lasting scars on a retail industry that was already struggling. J. Crew and Neiman Marcus have filed for bankruptcy protection, followed Friday by J.C. Penney, a 118-year-old chain with more than 800 stores and nearly 85,000 employees.
Surveys show that many Americans still fear the virus and are wary of crowded places. Epidemiologists and public health officials say those concerns are well founded: Anthony S. Fauci, the government’s top infectious-disease expert, told a Senate committee this week that rushing back to normal life could “trigger an outbreak that you may not be able to control.”	Surveys show that many Americans still fear the virus and are wary of crowded places. Epidemiologists and public health officials say those concerns are well founded: Anthony S. Fauci, the government’s top infectious-disease expert, told a Senate committee this week that rushing back to normal life could “trigger an outbreak that you may not be able to control.”
Even if Americans feel comfortable returning to stores, they may not have as much money to spend, since millions have lost their jobs.	Even if Americans feel comfortable returning to stores, they may not have as much money to spend, since millions have lost their jobs.
“Consumers are definitely feeling anxious about the future,” said Jay Sole, a retail analyst at UBS. “Whether it’s the pandemic, which is making people hesitant to go out in public to crowded places, or they’re worried about their jobs or the state of the economy going forward, people’s willingness to spend has declined.”	“Consumers are definitely feeling anxious about the future,” said Jay Sole, a retail analyst at UBS. “Whether it’s the pandemic, which is making people hesitant to go out in public to crowded places, or they’re worried about their jobs or the state of the economy going forward, people’s willingness to spend has declined.”
The pressure is not limited to big-name companies. In a survey released by the Census Bureau on Thursday, nearly 90 percent of small retailers reported being hurt by the pandemic, and few said they expected a quick rebound. A third said they thought it would take more than six months for business to return to normal, and 6.6 percent said they did not expect a full recovery.	The pressure is not limited to big-name companies. In a survey released by the Census Bureau on Thursday, nearly 90 percent of small retailers reported being hurt by the pandemic, and few said they expected a quick rebound. A third said they thought it would take more than six months for business to return to normal, and 6.6 percent said they did not expect a full recovery.
The plunge in sales, especially in areas like clothing, has shown how reliant many retailers have remained on physical outposts, even as the internet has upended the shopping landscape. J. Crew said in its bankruptcy filing that it expected to lose almost $900 million in sales because of the temporary store closings. The retailer’s most recent annual sales were about $2.5 billion.	The plunge in sales, especially in areas like clothing, has shown how reliant many retailers have remained on physical outposts, even as the internet has upended the shopping landscape. J. Crew said in its bankruptcy filing that it expected to lose almost $900 million in sales because of the temporary store closings. The retailer’s most recent annual sales were about $2.5 billion.
Mr. Sole anticipates 100,000 store closings by 2025 as the pandemic accelerates the shift to online sales, according to a recent report, with the biggest cuts in apparel, consumer electronics, home furnishings and groceries.	Mr. Sole anticipates 100,000 store closings by 2025 as the pandemic accelerates the shift to online sales, according to a recent report, with the biggest cuts in apparel, consumer electronics, home furnishings and groceries.
The pandemic has forced retailers to quickly adapt to a fully digital environment and speed up some investments that may have otherwise taken place over several years, said Joel Bines, managing director at AlixPartners, a consultancy and restructuring firm. That goes beyond their website operations to online ordering for curbside and store pickup, appointment shopping, partnerships with Instacart or Postmates, and other initiatives, he said.	The pandemic has forced retailers to quickly adapt to a fully digital environment and speed up some investments that may have otherwise taken place over several years, said Joel Bines, managing director at AlixPartners, a consultancy and restructuring firm. That goes beyond their website operations to online ordering for curbside and store pickup, appointment shopping, partnerships with Instacart or Postmates, and other initiatives, he said.
“Anything that puts digital into the transaction — that acceleration is a direct result of this,” Mr. Bines said.	“Anything that puts digital into the transaction — that acceleration is a direct result of this,” Mr. Bines said.
Still, for all the grim economic news, there are hints of a rebound as retailers race to resume business with masked employees, plexiglass guards and hand-sanitizer stations. Macy’s and Gap Inc. are among retailers that have announced aggressive plans to reopen stores in coming weeks, as has the Simon Property Group, the nation’s biggest mall operator.	Still, for all the grim economic news, there are hints of a rebound as retailers race to resume business with masked employees, plexiglass guards and hand-sanitizer stations. Macy’s and Gap Inc. are among retailers that have announced aggressive plans to reopen stores in coming weeks, as has the Simon Property Group, the nation’s biggest mall operator.
Data from Placer.ai, a company that uses mobile phone data to analyze foot traffic, shows that activity has picked up, although it is not close to levels before the pandemic.	Data from Placer.ai, a company that uses mobile phone data to analyze foot traffic, shows that activity has picked up, although it is not close to levels before the pandemic.
“There are so many unknowns still, but we’re definitely seeing things trending back toward normal,” said Ethan Chernofsky, vice president for marketing for Placer.ai. “There’s a potential light at the end of the tunnel.”	“There are so many unknowns still, but we’re definitely seeing things trending back toward normal,” said Ethan Chernofsky, vice president for marketing for Placer.ai. “There’s a potential light at the end of the tunnel.”
Updated June 5, 2020	Updated June 5, 2020
	So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement.
A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.	A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.
The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.	The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.
Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.	Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.
Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.	Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.
States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.	States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.	Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.	Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)	If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.	Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.
The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing.	The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing.
If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.	If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested.	If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested.
Some companies are easing into the reopening. American Eagle Outfitters, the teen retailer that also owns the underwear chain Aerie, hired a medical director in mid-March to advise it on bringing employees back to its stores and Pittsburgh headquarters, and has reopened more than 200 locations this month. The company has viewed online purchasing and pickups at stores or outside malls as a good transition for consumers wary of the full-on mall experience, said Andrew McLean, the company’s chief commercial officer.	Some companies are easing into the reopening. American Eagle Outfitters, the teen retailer that also owns the underwear chain Aerie, hired a medical director in mid-March to advise it on bringing employees back to its stores and Pittsburgh headquarters, and has reopened more than 200 locations this month. The company has viewed online purchasing and pickups at stores or outside malls as a good transition for consumers wary of the full-on mall experience, said Andrew McLean, the company’s chief commercial officer.
“We’re finding that’s a great gateway into retailing for consumers who might want to get out and see the mall but aren’t necessarily there yet from a safety standpoint,” he said.	“We’re finding that’s a great gateway into retailing for consumers who might want to get out and see the mall but aren’t necessarily there yet from a safety standpoint,” he said.
The retail collapse is both a result of the economic crisis and a major contributor to it. Plunging sales mean less tax revenue for cities and states, delayed rent payments for landlords, and lost business for manufacturers, trucking companies and thousands of other businesses. More than anything, it means lost jobs: The nation’s second-largest private-sector employer, after health care, the retail industry cut 2.1 million jobs in April.	The retail collapse is both a result of the economic crisis and a major contributor to it. Plunging sales mean less tax revenue for cities and states, delayed rent payments for landlords, and lost business for manufacturers, trucking companies and thousands of other businesses. More than anything, it means lost jobs: The nation’s second-largest private-sector employer, after health care, the retail industry cut 2.1 million jobs in April.
Angela Sherbanee was caught in the first wave of layoffs. She worked at Dylan’s Candy Bar inside the Mohegan Sun casino in Connecticut; the casino closed in mid-March, and the store along with it. She has been out of work for close to two months.	Angela Sherbanee was caught in the first wave of layoffs. She worked at Dylan’s Candy Bar inside the Mohegan Sun casino in Connecticut; the casino closed in mid-March, and the store along with it. She has been out of work for close to two months.
“It’s very scary right now because I don’t know how the casino is going to open back up,” she said.	“It’s very scary right now because I don’t know how the casino is going to open back up,” she said.