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Coronavirus Cases Slow in U.S., but the Big Picture Remains Tenuous Coronavirus Cases Slow in U.S., but the Big Picture Remains Tenuous
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CHICAGO — The number of new coronavirus cases confirmed in the United States has steadily declined in recent days. In New York, the figure has dropped over the past month. The numbers have also plunged in hard-hit Massachusetts and Rhode Island, and some states, including Vermont, Hawaii and Alaska, are reporting few new cases at all.CHICAGO — The number of new coronavirus cases confirmed in the United States has steadily declined in recent days. In New York, the figure has dropped over the past month. The numbers have also plunged in hard-hit Massachusetts and Rhode Island, and some states, including Vermont, Hawaii and Alaska, are reporting few new cases at all.
But that progress is tenuous and uncertain.But that progress is tenuous and uncertain.
The nation has reached a perilous moment in the course of the epidemic, embracing signs of hope and beginning to reopen businesses and ease the very measures that slowed the virus, despite the risk of a resurgence. With more than two-thirds of states significantly relaxing restrictions on how Americans can move about over the last few weeks, an uptick in cases is widely predicted.The nation has reached a perilous moment in the course of the epidemic, embracing signs of hope and beginning to reopen businesses and ease the very measures that slowed the virus, despite the risk of a resurgence. With more than two-thirds of states significantly relaxing restrictions on how Americans can move about over the last few weeks, an uptick in cases is widely predicted.
Months after the virus began spreading, only about 3 percent of the population has been tested for it, leaving its true scale and path unknown even as it continues to sicken and kill people at alarming rates. More than 20,000 new cases are identified on most days. And almost every day this past week, more than 1,000 Americans died from the virus.Months after the virus began spreading, only about 3 percent of the population has been tested for it, leaving its true scale and path unknown even as it continues to sicken and kill people at alarming rates. More than 20,000 new cases are identified on most days. And almost every day this past week, more than 1,000 Americans died from the virus.
“We’re seeing a decline; undoubtedly, that is something good to see,” Jeffrey Shaman, an epidemiologist at Columbia University, said. “But what we are also seeing is a lot of places right on the edge of controlling the disease.”“We’re seeing a decline; undoubtedly, that is something good to see,” Jeffrey Shaman, an epidemiologist at Columbia University, said. “But what we are also seeing is a lot of places right on the edge of controlling the disease.”
The slowing of new cases is a stark change from two weeks ago, when coronavirus cases were stuck on a stubborn plateau nationally and case numbers were rising in many states. As of Friday, new cases were decreasing in 19 states and increasing in three, while staying mostly the same in the rest, according to a database maintained by The New York Times.The slowing of new cases is a stark change from two weeks ago, when coronavirus cases were stuck on a stubborn plateau nationally and case numbers were rising in many states. As of Friday, new cases were decreasing in 19 states and increasing in three, while staying mostly the same in the rest, according to a database maintained by The New York Times.
Encouraging signs have emerged in some of the hardest-hit places.Encouraging signs have emerged in some of the hardest-hit places.
In New Orleans, where hundreds of new cases were being identified each day in early April, fewer than 50 have been announced daily in the last three weeks. In the Detroit area, which saw exponential case growth beginning in late March, numbers have fallen sharply. And in Cass County, Ind., where a meatpacking outbreak sickened at least 900 people, only a handful of cases have been reported most days this past week.In New Orleans, where hundreds of new cases were being identified each day in early April, fewer than 50 have been announced daily in the last three weeks. In the Detroit area, which saw exponential case growth beginning in late March, numbers have fallen sharply. And in Cass County, Ind., where a meatpacking outbreak sickened at least 900 people, only a handful of cases have been reported most days this past week.
Even as many large cities saw their cases drop, increasing infections continue to be reported in parts of rural America. Some communities that have been fighting to get outbreaks under control finally appear to have succeeded, but have little idea how long it will last.Even as many large cities saw their cases drop, increasing infections continue to be reported in parts of rural America. Some communities that have been fighting to get outbreaks under control finally appear to have succeeded, but have little idea how long it will last.
In Sioux Falls, S.D., where the virus sickened more than 1,000 people at a Smithfield pork processing plant, the outbreak appears to be slowing, Mayor Paul TenHaken said. More than 4,000 Smithfield employees, their family members and close contacts, were recently tested.In Sioux Falls, S.D., where the virus sickened more than 1,000 people at a Smithfield pork processing plant, the outbreak appears to be slowing, Mayor Paul TenHaken said. More than 4,000 Smithfield employees, their family members and close contacts, were recently tested.
Yet the mayor fears that his city’s progress could be temporary. On Monday, the plant will begin slaughtering hogs again. Hundreds of employees will be back together at work.Yet the mayor fears that his city’s progress could be temporary. On Monday, the plant will begin slaughtering hogs again. Hundreds of employees will be back together at work.
“I’ll be honest, it makes me nervous,” Mr. TenHaken said. “We’ve seen how a zero-case facility can become a 1,000-case facility.”“I’ll be honest, it makes me nervous,” Mr. TenHaken said. “We’ve seen how a zero-case facility can become a 1,000-case facility.”
Epidemiologists pointed to one overarching reason for the decline in new cases: the success of widespread social distancing.Epidemiologists pointed to one overarching reason for the decline in new cases: the success of widespread social distancing.
Americans began to change their behavior in March, and it has undoubtedly helped control the spread of the coronavirus. Between mid-March, when public officials began to close schools and some workplaces, and late April, when the restrictions were lifted or eased in many states, 43.8 percent of the nation’s residents stayed home, according to cellphone data analyzed by The Times.Americans began to change their behavior in March, and it has undoubtedly helped control the spread of the coronavirus. Between mid-March, when public officials began to close schools and some workplaces, and late April, when the restrictions were lifted or eased in many states, 43.8 percent of the nation’s residents stayed home, according to cellphone data analyzed by The Times.
The major clusters of cases that have arisen have been almost exclusively in three settings without effective social distancing: nursing homes, correctional facilities and food-processing plants.The major clusters of cases that have arisen have been almost exclusively in three settings without effective social distancing: nursing homes, correctional facilities and food-processing plants.
But in settings where distancing took place, the results have been overwhelming, researchers say. More than 70 percent of the U.S. population lives in counties where coronavirus cases were reduced as a result of less time spent outside the home, according to one estimate by a research team led by economists at Yale University. Without government orders to stay at home, 10 million more people in the United States would have been infected with the virus by the end of April, suggested a paper published this past week in the journal Health Affairs.But in settings where distancing took place, the results have been overwhelming, researchers say. More than 70 percent of the U.S. population lives in counties where coronavirus cases were reduced as a result of less time spent outside the home, according to one estimate by a research team led by economists at Yale University. Without government orders to stay at home, 10 million more people in the United States would have been infected with the virus by the end of April, suggested a paper published this past week in the journal Health Affairs.
“There’s this disconnect of why it got better,” said Mayor Thomas P. McNamara of Rockford, Ill., who has repeatedly stressed to his constituents that it is not yet time to relax the measures that contributed: “Social distancing, stay at home, wear your face covering.”“There’s this disconnect of why it got better,” said Mayor Thomas P. McNamara of Rockford, Ill., who has repeatedly stressed to his constituents that it is not yet time to relax the measures that contributed: “Social distancing, stay at home, wear your face covering.”
The challenge has been convincing impatient Americans to continue taking precautions that will continue to slow the spread of the virus while a cure or vaccine remains far out of reach.The challenge has been convincing impatient Americans to continue taking precautions that will continue to slow the spread of the virus while a cure or vaccine remains far out of reach.
“I just received an email from someone yesterday who said, ‘I don’t think people in our community are taking it seriously,’” said Kelly Chandler, the public health division manager for Itasca County, Minn., a lightly populated community with 42 cases of the coronavirus and six deaths.“I just received an email from someone yesterday who said, ‘I don’t think people in our community are taking it seriously,’” said Kelly Chandler, the public health division manager for Itasca County, Minn., a lightly populated community with 42 cases of the coronavirus and six deaths.
Influxes of new cases were already turning up in some places that had seemed to tamp down earlier outbreaks.Influxes of new cases were already turning up in some places that had seemed to tamp down earlier outbreaks.
In Arizona, which began reopening its economy without seeing a sustained drop in cases, infection numbers have continued to rise. More than 13,100 cases had been identified as of Friday. In Alabama, case numbers have grown since the state began to reopen its economy. And in Minnesota, cases around St. Cloud and Minneapolis have surged over the past two weeks, even as there were signs that the situation could be stabilizing.In Arizona, which began reopening its economy without seeing a sustained drop in cases, infection numbers have continued to rise. More than 13,100 cases had been identified as of Friday. In Alabama, case numbers have grown since the state began to reopen its economy. And in Minnesota, cases around St. Cloud and Minneapolis have surged over the past two weeks, even as there were signs that the situation could be stabilizing.
In Kankakee County, Ill., confirmed cases have climbed in recent days because testing has been ramping up significantly, said John J. Bevis, the administrator for the Kankakee County Health Department. He predicted that cases would decline soon — but also that the recovery could be short-lived.In Kankakee County, Ill., confirmed cases have climbed in recent days because testing has been ramping up significantly, said John J. Bevis, the administrator for the Kankakee County Health Department. He predicted that cases would decline soon — but also that the recovery could be short-lived.
Updated June 12, 2020Updated June 12, 2020
States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people. Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement.So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement.
A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.
The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.
Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.
Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.
States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.
The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing.The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing.
If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested.If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested.
“Down the road, as things begin to reopen, there is the possibility of an increase in numbers again,” Mr. Bevis said in an email.“Down the road, as things begin to reopen, there is the possibility of an increase in numbers again,” Mr. Bevis said in an email.
Along with cases, the number of deaths has slowed nationally.Along with cases, the number of deaths has slowed nationally.
Case and death reports vary greatly by day of the week, with spikes around midweek and steep drops on weekends. But on eight of the past nine days, there have been fewer deaths announced than there were seven days prior, an indication that the virus’s toll seems to be easing. More than half of the 24 counties that have recorded the most coronavirus deaths, including Oakland County, Mich., and Hartford County, Conn., are seeing sustained declines.Case and death reports vary greatly by day of the week, with spikes around midweek and steep drops on weekends. But on eight of the past nine days, there have been fewer deaths announced than there were seven days prior, an indication that the virus’s toll seems to be easing. More than half of the 24 counties that have recorded the most coronavirus deaths, including Oakland County, Mich., and Hartford County, Conn., are seeing sustained declines.
Deaths are a lagging sign of the virus’s progression because people who die of Covid-19 were typically infected three weeks earlier. But because death counts are not distorted by uneven testing practices, they are “a very clearly observed indicator,” said Nicholas Reich, a biostatistician at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, who has begun to synthesize the projections of deaths produced by several modeling teams on a weekly basis. The “ensemble” model released on Tuesday sees the number drifting down from about 10,000 this week to about 7,000 in the first week of June.Deaths are a lagging sign of the virus’s progression because people who die of Covid-19 were typically infected three weeks earlier. But because death counts are not distorted by uneven testing practices, they are “a very clearly observed indicator,” said Nicholas Reich, a biostatistician at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, who has begun to synthesize the projections of deaths produced by several modeling teams on a weekly basis. The “ensemble” model released on Tuesday sees the number drifting down from about 10,000 this week to about 7,000 in the first week of June.
Still, even with the slowing growth in new cases and deaths, the cumulative death toll in the United States is projected to reach about 113,000 by June 6, according to Dr. Reich’s latest ensemble model.Still, even with the slowing growth in new cases and deaths, the cumulative death toll in the United States is projected to reach about 113,000 by June 6, according to Dr. Reich’s latest ensemble model.
The effects of relaxing of restrictions on how Americans move about remain ahead. As more states lifted limits on businesses and movement, about 25 million more people ventured outside their homes on an average day last week than during the preceding six weeks, the analysis of cellphone data found.The effects of relaxing of restrictions on how Americans move about remain ahead. As more states lifted limits on businesses and movement, about 25 million more people ventured outside their homes on an average day last week than during the preceding six weeks, the analysis of cellphone data found.
But the lag after states reopen, combined with insufficient testing, may mask a rebound until it is underway for several weeks. The states that have reopened have offered a mixed picture — one more mysterious element of this virus, which doctors and scientists have grappled to understand as it has spread, swiftly and invisibly, through rural communities, on public transit, and in nursing homes, prisons and factories.But the lag after states reopen, combined with insufficient testing, may mask a rebound until it is underway for several weeks. The states that have reopened have offered a mixed picture — one more mysterious element of this virus, which doctors and scientists have grappled to understand as it has spread, swiftly and invisibly, through rural communities, on public transit, and in nursing homes, prisons and factories.
Georgia, which drew national attention when it eased its restrictions late last month, has not seen much change in its case numbers. Its curve has trended slightly downward this week.Georgia, which drew national attention when it eased its restrictions late last month, has not seen much change in its case numbers. Its curve has trended slightly downward this week.
Yet in Texas, officials reported a spike in coronavirus cases two weeks after the state began to reopen.Yet in Texas, officials reported a spike in coronavirus cases two weeks after the state began to reopen.
“At this point, there is uncertainty,” said Alessandro Vespignani, director of the Network Science Institute at Northeastern University, who has been modeling the path of the virus. “Probably the next week will be one of the crucial ones because if we see more decrease of cases we are still on a ‘good’ trajectory — if not, it really might be more problematic for the future.”“At this point, there is uncertainty,” said Alessandro Vespignani, director of the Network Science Institute at Northeastern University, who has been modeling the path of the virus. “Probably the next week will be one of the crucial ones because if we see more decrease of cases we are still on a ‘good’ trajectory — if not, it really might be more problematic for the future.”
Julie Bosman reported from Chicago, Amy Harmon from New York, and Mitch Smith from Overland Park, Kan.Julie Bosman reported from Chicago, Amy Harmon from New York, and Mitch Smith from Overland Park, Kan.