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| Oil Prices Are Coming Back as Demand Rises | Oil Prices Are Coming Back as Demand Rises |
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| HOUSTON — Driving in the United States and Europe is picking up a little. Refineries in China are buying more oil as that country’s economy reopens. Saudi Arabia and Russia ended their price war and slashed production, and American oil companies are decommissioning rigs and shutting wells. | HOUSTON — Driving in the United States and Europe is picking up a little. Refineries in China are buying more oil as that country’s economy reopens. Saudi Arabia and Russia ended their price war and slashed production, and American oil companies are decommissioning rigs and shutting wells. |
| All those developments have helped push up oil prices modestly in recent weeks. On Monday, U.S. oil futures climbed 8 percent to settle at $31.82 a barrel, a price that would allow some of the best oil wells in the United States to break even. | All those developments have helped push up oil prices modestly in recent weeks. On Monday, U.S. oil futures climbed 8 percent to settle at $31.82 a barrel, a price that would allow some of the best oil wells in the United States to break even. |
| That may seem like a minor miracle given that the price is more than $60 above where it was about a month ago. On April 20, the U.S. oil futures contract fell below zero for the first time as some traders paid buyers to take oil off their hands. | That may seem like a minor miracle given that the price is more than $60 above where it was about a month ago. On April 20, the U.S. oil futures contract fell below zero for the first time as some traders paid buyers to take oil off their hands. |
| “May, it seems, is a month when traders can finally sit back more comfortably for a moment and take a breath,” said Bjornar Tonhaugen, head of oil market research at Rystad Energy, a research and consulting firm. “But we warn that the second half of the year will not be met with precrisis oil prices again, as the gigantic oil stock overhang must first be worked down.” | “May, it seems, is a month when traders can finally sit back more comfortably for a moment and take a breath,” said Bjornar Tonhaugen, head of oil market research at Rystad Energy, a research and consulting firm. “But we warn that the second half of the year will not be met with precrisis oil prices again, as the gigantic oil stock overhang must first be worked down.” |
| Even after the recent rally, oil prices are roughly half of what they were at the beginning of the year. And the average price for regular gasoline in the United States is still a relative bargain at $1.88 a gallon, 97 cents less than a year ago, according to AAA. | Even after the recent rally, oil prices are roughly half of what they were at the beginning of the year. And the average price for regular gasoline in the United States is still a relative bargain at $1.88 a gallon, 97 cents less than a year ago, according to AAA. |
| Energy experts warn that oil prices may dip again if there is another surge in coronavirus cases and deaths as governments begin allowing businesses to reopen and encourage people to move about more freely. | Energy experts warn that oil prices may dip again if there is another surge in coronavirus cases and deaths as governments begin allowing businesses to reopen and encourage people to move about more freely. |
| Prices could also fall when tankers filled with more than 50 million barrels of crude oil from Saudi Arabia reach the United States in the next two months. That supply could overwhelm storage facilities, pipelines and refineries, leaving little room for domestic production. | Prices could also fall when tankers filled with more than 50 million barrels of crude oil from Saudi Arabia reach the United States in the next two months. That supply could overwhelm storage facilities, pipelines and refineries, leaving little room for domestic production. |
| Demand for oil and petroleum products fell sharply in recent weeks as people stopped commuting, airlines cut schedules and factories came to a halt. But there are some signs that demand for petroleum products is beginning to recover, especially the demand for gasoline. | Demand for oil and petroleum products fell sharply in recent weeks as people stopped commuting, airlines cut schedules and factories came to a halt. But there are some signs that demand for petroleum products is beginning to recover, especially the demand for gasoline. |
| The International Energy Agency expects gasoline demand in the United States this month to be down 25 percent from last May. While that is hardly good news for the oil industry, it is a big improvement from the 40 percent decline in April. | The International Energy Agency expects gasoline demand in the United States this month to be down 25 percent from last May. While that is hardly good news for the oil industry, it is a big improvement from the 40 percent decline in April. |
| Demand has also rebounded in many European countries that are slowly allowing businesses to reopen. | Demand has also rebounded in many European countries that are slowly allowing businesses to reopen. |
| Parts of the oil and gas industry, including petrochemical manufacturing, have done relatively well during the pandemic. That’s largely because of strong demand for masks and other protective equipment that include materials made by the energy industry. | Parts of the oil and gas industry, including petrochemical manufacturing, have done relatively well during the pandemic. That’s largely because of strong demand for masks and other protective equipment that include materials made by the energy industry. |
| On the supply side, Saudi Arabia, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies are reducing production rapidly. The Energy Department estimates that OPEC production will fall below 24.1 million barrels a day by June, a 6.3 million-barrel decline from April. Russia, which has coordinated with Saudi Arabia in recent years, is expected to cut its production by 800,000 barrels a day from last year. Canada, Norway and several other major producers are cutting as well. | On the supply side, Saudi Arabia, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies are reducing production rapidly. The Energy Department estimates that OPEC production will fall below 24.1 million barrels a day by June, a 6.3 million-barrel decline from April. Russia, which has coordinated with Saudi Arabia in recent years, is expected to cut its production by 800,000 barrels a day from last year. Canada, Norway and several other major producers are cutting as well. |
| But the most drastic cuts are coming in the United States, where the frenzy of drilling in Texas and North Dakota shale fields led to a doubling of American production in recent years. | But the most drastic cuts are coming in the United States, where the frenzy of drilling in Texas and North Dakota shale fields led to a doubling of American production in recent years. |
| U.S. oil production has already plummeted by 900,000 barrels a day since February, a 7 percent decline. Analysts said they expected the industry to cut at least an additional two million barrels a day by the end of the year as companies shut more wells and production from other wells declines naturally. | U.S. oil production has already plummeted by 900,000 barrels a day since February, a 7 percent decline. Analysts said they expected the industry to cut at least an additional two million barrels a day by the end of the year as companies shut more wells and production from other wells declines naturally. |
| In a hopeful sign, American crude oil stockpiles declined in the first week of May, the first weekly drop since January. | In a hopeful sign, American crude oil stockpiles declined in the first week of May, the first weekly drop since January. |
| “The companies are making big, bold cuts that are helping potentially to give some buoyancy to the oil price right now,” said Regina Mayor, global and U.S. head of energy and natural resources at KPMG. But it’s not clear that this rebound will be sustained, she said, because “we just have too much of a supply glut that we are going to have to work off.” | “The companies are making big, bold cuts that are helping potentially to give some buoyancy to the oil price right now,” said Regina Mayor, global and U.S. head of energy and natural resources at KPMG. But it’s not clear that this rebound will be sustained, she said, because “we just have too much of a supply glut that we are going to have to work off.” |
| Ms. Mayor expects a prolonged price slump that will force the American oil industry into a major restructuring. Financially weaker companies will have to merge with or sell oil fields to better capitalized businesses. On Friday, for example, Ultra Petroleum, which produces oil and natural gas in Wyoming, filed for bankruptcy protection for the second time in four years. | Ms. Mayor expects a prolonged price slump that will force the American oil industry into a major restructuring. Financially weaker companies will have to merge with or sell oil fields to better capitalized businesses. On Friday, for example, Ultra Petroleum, which produces oil and natural gas in Wyoming, filed for bankruptcy protection for the second time in four years. |
| Updated June 12, 2020 | Updated June 12, 2020 |
| So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. | So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. |
| Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. | |
| A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. | A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. |
| The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April. | The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April. |
| Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission. | Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission. |
| Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home. | Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home. |
| States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people. | States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people. |
| Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. | Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. |
| If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) | If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) |
| Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications. | Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications. |
| The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing. | The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing. |
| If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. | If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. |
| If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested. | If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested. |
| “We will see some consolidation, which the industry needs and is warranted,” Ms. Mayor said. “You could see a national oil company coming in and taking a stake, provided they are on reasonable terms with the Trump administration.” | “We will see some consolidation, which the industry needs and is warranted,” Ms. Mayor said. “You could see a national oil company coming in and taking a stake, provided they are on reasonable terms with the Trump administration.” |
| William T. Drennen, chief executive of WTD Resources, an oil and gas driller in Texas and Louisiana, said it could take a long time for the industry to recover the ground lost during the pandemic. | William T. Drennen, chief executive of WTD Resources, an oil and gas driller in Texas and Louisiana, said it could take a long time for the industry to recover the ground lost during the pandemic. |
| He said it would be expensive to restart wells and difficult to safely and efficiently put together field crews once people who were laid off had found new jobs or had been unemployed for a long stretch. | He said it would be expensive to restart wells and difficult to safely and efficiently put together field crews once people who were laid off had found new jobs or had been unemployed for a long stretch. |
| “It’s going to be very difficult to get things going again,” Mr. Drennen said. “I think by the summer months you will see more companies in real peril.” | “It’s going to be very difficult to get things going again,” Mr. Drennen said. “I think by the summer months you will see more companies in real peril.” |