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| How Will Cities Survive the Coronavirus? | How Will Cities Survive the Coronavirus? |
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| This article is part of the Debatable newsletter. You can sign up here to receive it Tuesdays and Thursdays. | This article is part of the Debatable newsletter. You can sign up here to receive it Tuesdays and Thursdays. |
| To the extent that cities can be said to possess “a brand,” history suggests that pandemics, from the Black Death to smallpox, have not been very good for it. The coronavirus is no exception: According to one recent poll, nearly 40 percent of adults living in cities have begun to consider moving to less populated areas because of the outbreak. In New York, where I live, roughly 5 percent of the population — or about 420,000 people — have already left. | To the extent that cities can be said to possess “a brand,” history suggests that pandemics, from the Black Death to smallpox, have not been very good for it. The coronavirus is no exception: According to one recent poll, nearly 40 percent of adults living in cities have begun to consider moving to less populated areas because of the outbreak. In New York, where I live, roughly 5 percent of the population — or about 420,000 people — have already left. |
| The urge to flee urban “caldrons of contagion” is a very old one, dating at least to the 14th century. Its resurgence now has been described as “temporary,” but so was the war in Afghanistan. Will the coronavirus really set off a mass exit from cities, and, if so, what will they look like on the other side of the pandemic? Here’s what people are saying. | The urge to flee urban “caldrons of contagion” is a very old one, dating at least to the 14th century. Its resurgence now has been described as “temporary,” but so was the war in Afghanistan. Will the coronavirus really set off a mass exit from cities, and, if so, what will they look like on the other side of the pandemic? Here’s what people are saying. |
| When New York City became the country’s biggest hot spot, many government officials and public-health experts blamed its population density, as Brian M. Rosenthal reported in March. With 28,000 residents per square mile, New York is far more crowded than any other major city in the United States, which seemed to make for an obvious explanation. | When New York City became the country’s biggest hot spot, many government officials and public-health experts blamed its population density, as Brian M. Rosenthal reported in March. With 28,000 residents per square mile, New York is far more crowded than any other major city in the United States, which seemed to make for an obvious explanation. |
| “Density is really an enemy in a situation like this,” Dr. Steven Goodman, an epidemiologist at Stanford University, told Mr. Rosenthal. “With large population centers, where people are interacting with more people all the time, that’s where it’s going to spread the fastest.” Even Gov. Andrew Cuomo of New York laid the blame for the severity of the city’s outbreak at the feet of “spatial closeness.” | “Density is really an enemy in a situation like this,” Dr. Steven Goodman, an epidemiologist at Stanford University, told Mr. Rosenthal. “With large population centers, where people are interacting with more people all the time, that’s where it’s going to spread the fastest.” Even Gov. Andrew Cuomo of New York laid the blame for the severity of the city’s outbreak at the feet of “spatial closeness.” |
| But the idea that cities inevitably foster explosive epidemics doesn’t stand up to scrutiny, Mary T. Bassett writes for The Times. Many “hyperdense” cities in East Asia have been able to contain their outbreaks. Even New York itself is a case in point: The densest borough, Manhattan, has some of the lowest rates of infection, and the most spread-out borough, Staten Island, has some of the highest. | But the idea that cities inevitably foster explosive epidemics doesn’t stand up to scrutiny, Mary T. Bassett writes for The Times. Many “hyperdense” cities in East Asia have been able to contain their outbreaks. Even New York itself is a case in point: The densest borough, Manhattan, has some of the lowest rates of infection, and the most spread-out borough, Staten Island, has some of the highest. |
| So if density doesn’t always track with higher infection rates, what factors do? Household overcrowding, poverty, racialized economic segregation and participation in the work force, according to Dr. Bassett. “It’s not that there are too many people in cities,” she explains. “It’s that too many of their residents are poor, and many of them are members of the especially vulnerable black, Latino and Asian populations.” | So if density doesn’t always track with higher infection rates, what factors do? Household overcrowding, poverty, racialized economic segregation and participation in the work force, according to Dr. Bassett. “It’s not that there are too many people in cities,” she explains. “It’s that too many of their residents are poor, and many of them are members of the especially vulnerable black, Latino and Asian populations.” |
| [Related: “Many people assume that infectious disease risks make cities dangerous, but this is generally untrue.”] | [Related: “Many people assume that infectious disease risks make cities dangerous, but this is generally untrue.”] |
| Epidemiological concerns aside, the coronavirus may still accelerate a trend of urban flight, as Sabrina Tavernise and Sarah Mervosh report for The Times. Even before the pandemic, cities were starting to lose some of their allure, largely because of skyrocketing rents: In the past several years, the country’s three largest metropolitan areas — New York, Los Angeles and Chicago — all lost population, according to an analysis from the Brookings Institution. | Epidemiological concerns aside, the coronavirus may still accelerate a trend of urban flight, as Sabrina Tavernise and Sarah Mervosh report for The Times. Even before the pandemic, cities were starting to lose some of their allure, largely because of skyrocketing rents: In the past several years, the country’s three largest metropolitan areas — New York, Los Angeles and Chicago — all lost population, according to an analysis from the Brookings Institution. |
| In the short term, those rents may become even more difficult to justify: | In the short term, those rents may become even more difficult to justify: |
| But in the long term, there are reasons to doubt the narrative of urban pessimism, according to Joe Cortright, the director of the think tank City Observatory. One is that today’s young adults are significantly more likely to prefer urban neighborhoods than their counterparts from previous generations. (Whether that trend holds, though, remains to be seen.) And while it’s true that population growth has slowed in cities, rents have also continued to rise, which suggests that demand for urban housing is outstripping supply. “Ultimately, the policy implication of all this is not that Americans, especially younger ones, are disenchanted with cities and want more suburbs. In fact, it’s exactly the opposite," he explains. | But in the long term, there are reasons to doubt the narrative of urban pessimism, according to Joe Cortright, the director of the think tank City Observatory. One is that today’s young adults are significantly more likely to prefer urban neighborhoods than their counterparts from previous generations. (Whether that trend holds, though, remains to be seen.) And while it’s true that population growth has slowed in cities, rents have also continued to rise, which suggests that demand for urban housing is outstripping supply. “Ultimately, the policy implication of all this is not that Americans, especially younger ones, are disenchanted with cities and want more suburbs. In fact, it’s exactly the opposite," he explains. |
| The coronavirus could herald an urban rebirth instead of an urban decline, The New York Times editorial board writes. After all, the very idea of abandoning cities is a luxury reserved only for those who have the resources to pick up and move. | The coronavirus could herald an urban rebirth instead of an urban decline, The New York Times editorial board writes. After all, the very idea of abandoning cities is a luxury reserved only for those who have the resources to pick up and move. |
| For everyone else, this crisis should be a reminder that the fates of city dwellers are bound. “The halves depend on one another. The rich need labor; the poor need capital. And the city needs both,” the board writes. “Building more diverse neighborhoods, and disconnecting public institutions from private wealth, will ultimately enrich the lives of all Americans — and make the cities in which they live and work a model again for the world.” | For everyone else, this crisis should be a reminder that the fates of city dwellers are bound. “The halves depend on one another. The rich need labor; the poor need capital. And the city needs both,” the board writes. “Building more diverse neighborhoods, and disconnecting public institutions from private wealth, will ultimately enrich the lives of all Americans — and make the cities in which they live and work a model again for the world.” |
| But for cities to flourish after the pandemic and better prepare themselves for the next one, they will have to solve their affordable housing crises, Carol Galante argues in The Times. The only way to reduce household crowding and segregation along racial and economic lines is to build more and denser housing — especially mixed-income housing. “This would get workers back to work, provide safe and affordable living for those hard hit by this pandemic and get property taxes and other revenue flowing back to local governments for the services communities need,” she writes. “It would be a win for everyone.” | But for cities to flourish after the pandemic and better prepare themselves for the next one, they will have to solve their affordable housing crises, Carol Galante argues in The Times. The only way to reduce household crowding and segregation along racial and economic lines is to build more and denser housing — especially mixed-income housing. “This would get workers back to work, provide safe and affordable living for those hard hit by this pandemic and get property taxes and other revenue flowing back to local governments for the services communities need,” she writes. “It would be a win for everyone.” |
| Public transportation may also have to evolve, Emily Sohn writes in National Geographic. Subways, for example, may adopt contactless fare payment, more widely spaced seating arrangements, and even live congestion data and reservations. In the meantime, the pandemic has already led to a bicycle and bicycle lane boom, which experts predict could become a lasting shift, especially as more cities aim to reduce car use. | Public transportation may also have to evolve, Emily Sohn writes in National Geographic. Subways, for example, may adopt contactless fare payment, more widely spaced seating arrangements, and even live congestion data and reservations. In the meantime, the pandemic has already led to a bicycle and bicycle lane boom, which experts predict could become a lasting shift, especially as more cities aim to reduce car use. |
| What will all these changes mean? For now, Derek Thompson writes in The Atlantic, America’s cities seem to be in for a painful and potentially very boring few years. But in time, he predicts, decadence will give way to renaissance, and cities will emerge healthier, more equitable and more vibrant than they were before: “From the ashes, something new will grow, and something better, too, if we build it right.” | What will all these changes mean? For now, Derek Thompson writes in The Atlantic, America’s cities seem to be in for a painful and potentially very boring few years. But in time, he predicts, decadence will give way to renaissance, and cities will emerge healthier, more equitable and more vibrant than they were before: “From the ashes, something new will grow, and something better, too, if we build it right.” |
| If you live in a city, are you thinking about relocating, or are you staying put? Email us at debatable@nytimes.com. Please note your name, age and location in your response, which may be included in the next newsletter. | If you live in a city, are you thinking about relocating, or are you staying put? Email us at debatable@nytimes.com. Please note your name, age and location in your response, which may be included in the next newsletter. |
| “How Life in Our Cities Will Look After the Coronavirus Pandemic” [Foreign Policy] | “How Life in Our Cities Will Look After the Coronavirus Pandemic” [Foreign Policy] |
| “America’s Cities Could House Everyone if They Chose To” [The New York Times] | “America’s Cities Could House Everyone if They Chose To” [The New York Times] |
| “Fran Lebowitz Is Never Leaving New York” [The New Yorker] | “Fran Lebowitz Is Never Leaving New York” [The New Yorker] |
| “The coronavirus pandemic spells the end for big cities — again” [Business Insider] | “The coronavirus pandemic spells the end for big cities — again” [Business Insider] |
| “How Smart City Planning Could Slow Future Pandemics” [Wired] | “How Smart City Planning Could Slow Future Pandemics” [Wired] |
| “How pandemics have changed American cities — often for the better” [The Conversation] | “How pandemics have changed American cities — often for the better” [The Conversation] |
| Here’s what readers had to say about the last debate: When can kids go back to class? | Here’s what readers had to say about the last debate: When can kids go back to class? |
| Chase, 17, from California: “The argument frequently used to support reopening schools centers around their service as a child care program for working parents. Although this is true in some cases, I would like to note that most middle schoolers and nearly all high schoolers do not use our school system as any form of child care. … If we are to make a virus-focused decision surrounding the reopening of schools, it is critical that we acknowledge this difference and reopen elementary schools first, as they are responsible for nearly 100 percent of the ‘child care problem.’” | Chase, 17, from California: “The argument frequently used to support reopening schools centers around their service as a child care program for working parents. Although this is true in some cases, I would like to note that most middle schoolers and nearly all high schoolers do not use our school system as any form of child care. … If we are to make a virus-focused decision surrounding the reopening of schools, it is critical that we acknowledge this difference and reopen elementary schools first, as they are responsible for nearly 100 percent of the ‘child care problem.’” |
| Anahita, 14, from California: “As eager as I am to return to school, returning so soon could potentially be a disaster. The curriculum in my school is very collaboration-based, and overall isn’t a very conducive environment for social distancing — couches line our hallways, and students are at school for hours before and after classes are actually in session. If even one person in my school had the virus, I could easily imagine the rapid pace at which it would spread. It would be a disaster.” | Anahita, 14, from California: “As eager as I am to return to school, returning so soon could potentially be a disaster. The curriculum in my school is very collaboration-based, and overall isn’t a very conducive environment for social distancing — couches line our hallways, and students are at school for hours before and after classes are actually in session. If even one person in my school had the virus, I could easily imagine the rapid pace at which it would spread. It would be a disaster.” |