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Coronavirus Live Updates: Delay in Lockdown Led to at Least 36,000 More Deaths, Models Find Coronavirus Live Updates: Delay in Lockdown Led to at Least 36,000 More Deaths, Models Find
(about 1 hour later)
If the United States had begun imposing social-distancing measures one week earlier in March, about 36,000 fewer people would have died in the pandemic, according to new estimates from Columbia University disease modelers.If the United States had begun imposing social-distancing measures one week earlier in March, about 36,000 fewer people would have died in the pandemic, according to new estimates from Columbia University disease modelers.
And if the country had begun locking down cities and limiting social contact on March 1, two weeks earlier than when most people started staying home, a vast majority of the nation’s deaths — about 83 percent — would have been avoided, the researchers estimated.And if the country had begun locking down cities and limiting social contact on March 1, two weeks earlier than when most people started staying home, a vast majority of the nation’s deaths — about 83 percent — would have been avoided, the researchers estimated.
The enormous cost of waiting to take action reflects the unforgiving dynamics of the outbreak that swept through American cities in early March. Even small differences in timing would have prevented the worst exponential growth, which by April had subsumed New York City, New Orleans and other major cities, the researchers found.The enormous cost of waiting to take action reflects the unforgiving dynamics of the outbreak that swept through American cities in early March. Even small differences in timing would have prevented the worst exponential growth, which by April had subsumed New York City, New Orleans and other major cities, the researchers found.
“It’s a big, big difference,” said Jeffrey Shaman, an epidemiologist at Columbia and the leader of the research team. “That small moment in time, catching it in that growth phase, is incredibly critical in reducing the number of deaths.”“It’s a big, big difference,” said Jeffrey Shaman, an epidemiologist at Columbia and the leader of the research team. “That small moment in time, catching it in that growth phase, is incredibly critical in reducing the number of deaths.”
The findings are based on infectious-disease modeling that gauges how reduced contact between people starting in mid-March slowed transmission of the virus.The findings are based on infectious-disease modeling that gauges how reduced contact between people starting in mid-March slowed transmission of the virus.
On March 16, President Trump urged Americans to limit travel, avoid groups and stay home from school. Mayor Bill de Blasio of New York City closed schools on March 15, and Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo of New York issued a stay-at-home order that took effect on March 22.On March 16, President Trump urged Americans to limit travel, avoid groups and stay home from school. Mayor Bill de Blasio of New York City closed schools on March 15, and Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo of New York issued a stay-at-home order that took effect on March 22.
But in cities like New York, where the virus arrived early and spread quickly, those actions were too late to avoid a calamity. Dr. Shaman’s team modeled what would have happened if those same changes had taken place one or two weeks earlier and estimated the spread of infections and deaths until May 3.But in cities like New York, where the virus arrived early and spread quickly, those actions were too late to avoid a calamity. Dr. Shaman’s team modeled what would have happened if those same changes had taken place one or two weeks earlier and estimated the spread of infections and deaths until May 3.
The results show that as states reopen — all 50 states had eased restrictions somewhat as of Wednesday — outbreaks can easily get out of control unless officials closely monitor infections and immediately clamp down on new flare-ups.The results show that as states reopen — all 50 states had eased restrictions somewhat as of Wednesday — outbreaks can easily get out of control unless officials closely monitor infections and immediately clamp down on new flare-ups.
And they show that each day that officials waited to impose restrictions in early March came at a great cost.And they show that each day that officials waited to impose restrictions in early March came at a great cost.
An additional 2.4 million workers filed first-time claims for unemployment benefits last week, the U.S. government reported Thursday, representing a leveling in the weekly toll that the coronavirus lockdowns have had on the economy.
In its report at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, the Labor Department is expected to put the figure for last week at 2.5 million, according to a consensus of analysts cited by Bloomberg. That would mean new claims are leveling off, but not declining, and would bring the nine-week total to about 39 million. Still, the number of people losing their jobs remains vast. The latest report, for the period ending May 16, brings the total count of jobless claims over the past nine weeks to more than 38 million.
A recent household survey from the Census Bureau suggests that the pain is widespread: 47 percent of adults said they or a member of their household had lost employment income since mid-March. Nearly 40 percent expected the loss to continue over the next four weeks. And the pain is widespread. A recent household survey from the Census Bureau found that nearly half of adults said they or a member of their household had lost employment income since mid-March. A recent Federal Reserve study found that approximately 40 percent of workers in households earning less than $40,000 had lost their jobs.
And there is increasing concern that many jobs are not coming back, even for those who consider themselves laid off temporarily. While all 50 states have begun the process of reopening, most experts believe the path to economic recovery will be long and potentially halting. Economists who once expected a swift recovery now say unemployment is likely to remain elevated for years.
Nicholas Bloom, a Stanford University economist who is a co-author of an analysis of the pandemic’s effects on the labor market, estimates that 42 percent of recent layoffs will result in permanent job losses. “I hate to say it, but this is going to take longer and look grimmer than we thought,” he said of the path to recovery. Emergency relief and expanded unemployment benefits have helped tide over households. Roughly three-quarters of people who are eligible for a $1,200 stimulus payment from the federal government have received it, according to the Treasury Department.
Workers who have successfully applied for unemployment benefits are getting an extra $600 a week from the federal government, and most states have begun another program that extends benefits to freelancers, self-employed workers and others who don’t routinely qualify.
But many states are struggling to keep up with the overwhelming demand, drawing desperate complaints from people who have been waiting two months or more to receive their first benefit check. Indiana, Wyoming, Hawaii and Missouri are among those with large backlogs of incompletely processed claims. Another is Kentucky, where nearly one in three workers are unemployed.
The coronavirus pandemic has devastated nursing homes in the United States, contributing to at least 20 percent of the nation’s Covid-19 death toll. The impact has been felt in cities and suburbs, in large facilities and small, in poorly rated homes and in those with stellar marks.The coronavirus pandemic has devastated nursing homes in the United States, contributing to at least 20 percent of the nation’s Covid-19 death toll. The impact has been felt in cities and suburbs, in large facilities and small, in poorly rated homes and in those with stellar marks.
But Covid-19 has been particularly virulent toward African-Americans and Latinos: Nursing homes where those groups make up a significant portion of the residents have been twice as likely to get hit by the coronavirus as those where the population is overwhelmingly white.But Covid-19 has been particularly virulent toward African-Americans and Latinos: Nursing homes where those groups make up a significant portion of the residents have been twice as likely to get hit by the coronavirus as those where the population is overwhelmingly white.
A collaboration by reporters at The New York Times, The Baltimore Sun, KPCC/LAist and The Southern Illinoisan illustrates the toll.A collaboration by reporters at The New York Times, The Baltimore Sun, KPCC/LAist and The Southern Illinoisan illustrates the toll.
More than 60 percent of nursing homes where at least a quarter of the residents are black or Latino have reported at least one coronavirus case, a New York Times analysis shows. That is double the rate of homes where black and Latino people make up less than 5 percent of the population.More than 60 percent of nursing homes where at least a quarter of the residents are black or Latino have reported at least one coronavirus case, a New York Times analysis shows. That is double the rate of homes where black and Latino people make up less than 5 percent of the population.
In the suburbs of Baltimore, for example, workers at one nursing home said they were given rain ponchos to protect from infection. Twenty-five employees at the facility, where most residents are African-American, tested positive for the coronavirus.In the suburbs of Baltimore, for example, workers at one nursing home said they were given rain ponchos to protect from infection. Twenty-five employees at the facility, where most residents are African-American, tested positive for the coronavirus.
In East Los Angeles, a staff member at a predominantly Latino nursing home where an outbreak emerged said she was given swimming goggles before professional gear could be obtained. She said she later tested positive for the virus.In East Los Angeles, a staff member at a predominantly Latino nursing home where an outbreak emerged said she was given swimming goggles before professional gear could be obtained. She said she later tested positive for the virus.
The chief scientist brought on to lead the Trump administration’s vaccine efforts has spent the past several days trying to disentangle pieces of his stock portfolio and his intricate ties to big pharmaceutical interests, as critics point to the potential for significant conflicts of interest.The chief scientist brought on to lead the Trump administration’s vaccine efforts has spent the past several days trying to disentangle pieces of his stock portfolio and his intricate ties to big pharmaceutical interests, as critics point to the potential for significant conflicts of interest.
The scientist, Moncef Slaoui, is a venture capitalist and a former longtime executive at GlaxoSmithKline. Most recently, he sat on the board of Moderna, a Cambridge, Mass., biotechnology firm with a $30 billion valuation that is pursuing a coronavirus vaccine. He resigned when President Trump named him to the new post as chief adviser for Operation Warp Speed, the federal drive for coronavirus vaccines and treatments.The scientist, Moncef Slaoui, is a venture capitalist and a former longtime executive at GlaxoSmithKline. Most recently, he sat on the board of Moderna, a Cambridge, Mass., biotechnology firm with a $30 billion valuation that is pursuing a coronavirus vaccine. He resigned when President Trump named him to the new post as chief adviser for Operation Warp Speed, the federal drive for coronavirus vaccines and treatments.
Just days into his job, the extent of Dr. Slaoui’s financial interests in drug companies has begun to emerge: The value of his stock holdings in Moderna jumped nearly $2.4 million, to $12.4 million when the company released preliminary, partial data from an early phase of its candidate vaccine trial that helped send the markets soaring on Monday.Just days into his job, the extent of Dr. Slaoui’s financial interests in drug companies has begun to emerge: The value of his stock holdings in Moderna jumped nearly $2.4 million, to $12.4 million when the company released preliminary, partial data from an early phase of its candidate vaccine trial that helped send the markets soaring on Monday.
Dr. Slaoui sold his shares on Tuesday, and the administration said he would donate the increased value to cancer research.Dr. Slaoui sold his shares on Tuesday, and the administration said he would donate the increased value to cancer research.
But the Moderna stock is just one piece of his pharmaceutical portfolio, much of which is not public. And some ethics and financial securities experts have voiced concerns about the arrangement Dr. Slaoui struck with the administration.But the Moderna stock is just one piece of his pharmaceutical portfolio, much of which is not public. And some ethics and financial securities experts have voiced concerns about the arrangement Dr. Slaoui struck with the administration.
In agreeing to accept the position, Dr. Slaoui did not come on board as a government employee. Instead, he is on a contract, receiving $1 for his service. That leaves him exempt from federal disclosure rules that would require him to list his outside positions, stock holdings and other potential conflicts. And the contract position is not subject to the same conflict-of-interest laws and regulations that executive branch employees must follow.In agreeing to accept the position, Dr. Slaoui did not come on board as a government employee. Instead, he is on a contract, receiving $1 for his service. That leaves him exempt from federal disclosure rules that would require him to list his outside positions, stock holdings and other potential conflicts. And the contract position is not subject to the same conflict-of-interest laws and regulations that executive branch employees must follow.
Calling for “a national expression of grief,” the Democratic leaders of the House and Senate asked President Trump on Thursday to order flags on all government buildings be lowered to half-staff when the country reaches 100,000 coronavirus-related deaths in the coming days.
In a letter to Mr. Trump on Thursday morning, Speaker Nancy Pelosi of California and Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, the minority leader, said doing so would be an appropriate gesture at a time when the United States is preparing to honor those it lost to war on Memorial Day.
“Respectful of them and the loss to our country, we are writing to request that you order flags to be flown at half-staff on all public buildings in our country on the sad day of reckoning when we reach 100,000 deaths,” they wrote. “It would serve as a national expression of grief so needed by everyone in our country.”
More than 93,000 people have now died in connection with the virus, according to a tally by The New York Times, and an average of more than 1,000 deaths a day are still being recorded.
Mr. Trump has not led any observance of national mourning since the coronavirus pandemic began claiming American lives by the thousands, and in his recent public comments, he has steered clear of talking about the deaths, focusing instead on the need to reopen the country — a process he describes as a “transition to greatness” — and defending his own handling of the crisis.
Ms. Pelosi can lower flags over the Capitol on her own authority, but it takes an order from the president to lower flags at the White House and on federal buildings around the country.
States and cities around the country have begun with varying degrees of success to ramp up efforts to put contact tracing in place on a large scale. Last week, Gov. Philip D. Murphy of New Jersey said that his state would hire up to several thousand contact tracers to assist the 800 now working for local and county health departments.States and cities around the country have begun with varying degrees of success to ramp up efforts to put contact tracing in place on a large scale. Last week, Gov. Philip D. Murphy of New Jersey said that his state would hire up to several thousand contact tracers to assist the 800 now working for local and county health departments.
Twenty miles to the west of New York City, Paterson, a poor, largely nonwhite city of about 150,000, has been tracing the virus at a level that could be the envy of larger cities. The team has been able to successfully investigate and trace about 90 percent of the more than 5,900 positive Covid-19 cases in Paterson, said the city’s top health officer, Dr. Paul Persaud.Twenty miles to the west of New York City, Paterson, a poor, largely nonwhite city of about 150,000, has been tracing the virus at a level that could be the envy of larger cities. The team has been able to successfully investigate and trace about 90 percent of the more than 5,900 positive Covid-19 cases in Paterson, said the city’s top health officer, Dr. Paul Persaud.
As of Saturday, 306 Paterson residents have died, giving the city a Covid-19 death rate of 5.1 percent among those who have tested positive for the disease, compared to 7 percent statewide.As of Saturday, 306 Paterson residents have died, giving the city a Covid-19 death rate of 5.1 percent among those who have tested positive for the disease, compared to 7 percent statewide.
Perry N. Halkitis, the dean of the Rutgers School of Public Health, said that it was impossible to know how much contact tracing has helped control the spread of the virus. But contact tracing, he noted, “is one of the few tools that we actually have in the absence of a vaccine.”Perry N. Halkitis, the dean of the Rutgers School of Public Health, said that it was impossible to know how much contact tracing has helped control the spread of the virus. But contact tracing, he noted, “is one of the few tools that we actually have in the absence of a vaccine.”
Michigan, one of the states hardest hit by the pandemic, was confronted by a new emergency on Wednesday after days of torrential rainfall breached two dams the night before. Thousands of residents were forced to flee their homes, and much of Midland, the home of Dow Chemical and some of its plants, was submerged.Michigan, one of the states hardest hit by the pandemic, was confronted by a new emergency on Wednesday after days of torrential rainfall breached two dams the night before. Thousands of residents were forced to flee their homes, and much of Midland, the home of Dow Chemical and some of its plants, was submerged.
Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, a Democrat who has clashed with Republicans over the state’s response to the coronavirus, found herself in an ever more complicated position: urging residents to flee their homes while maintaining social distancing to avoid the spreading virus. Midland County has had 76 known cases, a relatively small number in a battered state.Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, a Democrat who has clashed with Republicans over the state’s response to the coronavirus, found herself in an ever more complicated position: urging residents to flee their homes while maintaining social distancing to avoid the spreading virus. Midland County has had 76 known cases, a relatively small number in a battered state.
“It’s hard to believe that we’re in the middle of a 100-year crisis, a global pandemic, and we’re also dealing with a flooding event that looks to be the worst in 500 years,” Ms. Whitmer said.“It’s hard to believe that we’re in the middle of a 100-year crisis, a global pandemic, and we’re also dealing with a flooding event that looks to be the worst in 500 years,” Ms. Whitmer said.
For years, federal regulators had warned that a dam in nearby Edenville Township could rupture and had chided its corporate owner, Boyce Hydro Power, for failing to make required structural changes. On Tuesday night, the dam gave way, sending water gushing into streets and threatening Dow Chemical, the producer of plastics that sits along the Tittabawassee River. Ten miles south of the Edenville dam, water was spilling over a second dam, a structure feared to be on the verge of collapse on Wednesday.For years, federal regulators had warned that a dam in nearby Edenville Township could rupture and had chided its corporate owner, Boyce Hydro Power, for failing to make required structural changes. On Tuesday night, the dam gave way, sending water gushing into streets and threatening Dow Chemical, the producer of plastics that sits along the Tittabawassee River. Ten miles south of the Edenville dam, water was spilling over a second dam, a structure feared to be on the verge of collapse on Wednesday.
By then, floodwaters had crept high enough that red stop signs were barely peeking out in downtown Midland, a city of 42,000 residents about 130 miles northwest of Detroit.By then, floodwaters had crept high enough that red stop signs were barely peeking out in downtown Midland, a city of 42,000 residents about 130 miles northwest of Detroit.
Officials said there were no known injuries or deaths tied to the floods.Officials said there were no known injuries or deaths tied to the floods.
As news of the disaster spread, Mr. Trump threatened on Twitter to withhold federal funds to Michigan if the state proceeded to expand vote-by-mail efforts. The president then followed up by saying that the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the military had been deployed to Michigan to assist with disaster response.As news of the disaster spread, Mr. Trump threatened on Twitter to withhold federal funds to Michigan if the state proceeded to expand vote-by-mail efforts. The president then followed up by saying that the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the military had been deployed to Michigan to assist with disaster response.
Michael D. Cohen, President Trump’s former personal lawyer and fixer, will be released from a federal prison on Thursday on furlough, a Bureau of Prisons spokeswoman said on Wednesday. He had asked to be released over health concerns tied to the coronavirus.Michael D. Cohen, President Trump’s former personal lawyer and fixer, will be released from a federal prison on Thursday on furlough, a Bureau of Prisons spokeswoman said on Wednesday. He had asked to be released over health concerns tied to the coronavirus.
Mr. Cohen, 53, who pleaded guilty in 2018 to campaign finance violations and other crimes, had been serving his sentence at a minimum-security camp next to a medium-security federal prison and detention center in Otisville, N.Y., about 75 miles northwest of New York City.Mr. Cohen, 53, who pleaded guilty in 2018 to campaign finance violations and other crimes, had been serving his sentence at a minimum-security camp next to a medium-security federal prison and detention center in Otisville, N.Y., about 75 miles northwest of New York City.
Mr. Cohen’s projected release date was November 2021, according to the bureau’s website, but he had sought to be released sooner because of medical issues and the risk that they would be exacerbated by the virus’s spread at the prison.Mr. Cohen’s projected release date was November 2021, according to the bureau’s website, but he had sought to be released sooner because of medical issues and the risk that they would be exacerbated by the virus’s spread at the prison.
Mr. Cohen’s release came a week after Paul Manafort, Mr. Trump’s onetime campaign chairman, was released into home confinement in Northern Virginia because of underlying health conditions and concerns about the virus. He had been serving a federal prison sentence of seven and a half years.Mr. Cohen’s release came a week after Paul Manafort, Mr. Trump’s onetime campaign chairman, was released into home confinement in Northern Virginia because of underlying health conditions and concerns about the virus. He had been serving a federal prison sentence of seven and a half years.
With a squeegee in his left latex-gloved hand and a plastic spray bottle with a solution of vinegar, water and glass cleaner in his right, a young man stood alone on a Baltimore street corner and waited for the traffic lights to turn red.
As soon as it did, he tried to clean windshields for a small donation.
The young man, Evay, who asked that his last name be withheld, was a food runner and busser at a restaurant on Baltimore’s Harbor East front. But like many dining establishments around the country, it was forced to shutter to slow the spread of the coronavirus.
Now Evay relies on washing car windows to pay for food and rent. Before the virus hit, he could make almost $200 cleaning the windows, but now, on a good day, he makes half that.
While Gov. Larry Hogan of Maryland, a Republican, has started reopening parts of the state, Baltimore’s mayor, Bernard C. “Jack” Young, a Democrat, has said that the city will keep its stay-at-home order in place for now.
Mr. Young also said this week that the city’s summer jobs program for young people would have to be cut in half, and offer many jobs virtually.
Many of Baltimore’s squeegee workers aren’t in high school, so they don’t qualify for the free lunches made available to the community by local school districts.
The Mayor’s Office of Children and Family Success is trying to help by hiring squeegee workers to deliver the free meals. The initiative is part of the “Earn As You Grow” piece of what the office calls the Squeegee Alternative Plan. The pay is $50 a day, or $250 per week.
Washing car windows at intersections is not illegal in Baltimore, but some city officials have tried to ban it. The police aren’t targeting the workers during the lockdown, one officer said, though they may be asked to disperse if they are in large groups.
Evay said an officer asked him to move, telling him he was not supposed to be outside unless he was going to work. “I said, ‘I am going to work.’”
In many states, the beaches are open or opening for Memorial Day weekend. Exciting news, but no activity is going to be risk-free in a pandemic. Here are some things to remember when planning a beach day: know the rules, consider your beach’s geography, stay moving or far away, use your own gear and check out the restroom facilities when you arrive.In many states, the beaches are open or opening for Memorial Day weekend. Exciting news, but no activity is going to be risk-free in a pandemic. Here are some things to remember when planning a beach day: know the rules, consider your beach’s geography, stay moving or far away, use your own gear and check out the restroom facilities when you arrive.
The latest outbreak of coronavirus cases in China is concentrated in Jilin, a northeastern province of 27 million people that sits near the borders with Russia and North Korea. Jilin has reported only about 130 cases and two deaths, but experts there have warned of a potential “big explosion.”The latest outbreak of coronavirus cases in China is concentrated in Jilin, a northeastern province of 27 million people that sits near the borders with Russia and North Korea. Jilin has reported only about 130 cases and two deaths, but experts there have warned of a potential “big explosion.”
The humble bicycle is the surprise star of lockdown. With youth sports on hold, car traffic down 75 percent or more throughout the United States (according to the research firm StreetLightData), and cooped-up children doing parkour on the living room furniture, family bike rides have never sounded better. Here are some tips for a safe and successful trip.The humble bicycle is the surprise star of lockdown. With youth sports on hold, car traffic down 75 percent or more throughout the United States (according to the research firm StreetLightData), and cooped-up children doing parkour on the living room furniture, family bike rides have never sounded better. Here are some tips for a safe and successful trip.
Reporting was contributed by Karen Barrow, Julie Bosman, Patricia Cohen, Andrew Das, James Glanz, Matthew Goldstein, Abby Goodnough, Kathleen Gray, Maggie Haberman, Sheila Kaplan, Sharon Otterman, Campbell Robertson, Anna Schaverien, Lauren Sloss, Kaly Soto, Chris Stanford and Alexandra Stevenson. Reporting was contributed by Karen Barrow, Julie Bosman, Patricia Cohen, Andrew Das, James Glanz, Matthew Goldstein, Abby Goodnough, Kathleen Gray, Maggie Haberman, Sheila Kaplan, Sharon Otterman, Campbell Robertson, Chaseedaw Giles, Anna Schaverien, Lauren Sloss, Kaly Soto, Chris Stanford and Alexandra Stevenson.