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| Fed Chair Warns This Is a ‘Downturn Without Modern Precedent’ | Fed Chair Warns This Is a ‘Downturn Without Modern Precedent’ |
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| Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, and other top central bank officials warned on Thursday that the United States was experiencing an exceptional shock in the coronavirus pandemic, and that it was wildly unclear when and how low unemployment and widespread prosperity would return. | Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, and other top central bank officials warned on Thursday that the United States was experiencing an exceptional shock in the coronavirus pandemic, and that it was wildly unclear when and how low unemployment and widespread prosperity would return. |
| The United States economy is in a “downturn without modern precedent,” Mr. Powell said. | The United States economy is in a “downturn without modern precedent,” Mr. Powell said. |
| “In the best of times, predicting the path of the economy with any certainty is difficult,” he added. “We are now experiencing a whole new level of uncertainty, as questions only the virus can answer complicate the outlook.” | “In the best of times, predicting the path of the economy with any certainty is difficult,” he added. “We are now experiencing a whole new level of uncertainty, as questions only the virus can answer complicate the outlook.” |
| The Fed chief’s comments underscored a point his colleagues made repeatedly across a series of speaking engagements on Thursday: The path to recovery is not obvious as the economy and job market absorb the biggest shock in generations. Against that backdrop, several said, both Fed policymakers and those in Congress and the White House should be prepared to do more if needed. | The Fed chief’s comments underscored a point his colleagues made repeatedly across a series of speaking engagements on Thursday: The path to recovery is not obvious as the economy and job market absorb the biggest shock in generations. Against that backdrop, several said, both Fed policymakers and those in Congress and the White House should be prepared to do more if needed. |
| “Depending on the course the virus takes and the depth and duration of the downturn it causes, additional support from both monetary and fiscal policies may be called for,” Richard H. Clarida, the Fed’s vice chair, said during an event earlier in the day. | “Depending on the course the virus takes and the depth and duration of the downturn it causes, additional support from both monetary and fiscal policies may be called for,” Richard H. Clarida, the Fed’s vice chair, said during an event earlier in the day. |
| But key government officials, particularly Republican members of Congress and some leaders in the Trump administration, have signaled varying appetite for providing further help. | But key government officials, particularly Republican members of Congress and some leaders in the Trump administration, have signaled varying appetite for providing further help. |
| Larry Kudlow, the director of the National Economic Council, speaking Thursday at a Washington Post event, expressed opposition to extending enhanced unemployment benefits, which provide an extra $600 a week. Tax cuts and other incentives to encourage hiring would be preferable at this point, he said. | Larry Kudlow, the director of the National Economic Council, speaking Thursday at a Washington Post event, expressed opposition to extending enhanced unemployment benefits, which provide an extra $600 a week. Tax cuts and other incentives to encourage hiring would be preferable at this point, he said. |
| “I do not believe that more government spending is going to give us a strong and durable recovery,” Mr. Kudlow said. | “I do not believe that more government spending is going to give us a strong and durable recovery,” Mr. Kudlow said. |
| It remains unclear whether lawmakers will agree to extend the more generous unemployment benefits, which expire at the end of July, or if they will provide any additional aid beyond the $2 trillion stimulus package that passed in March. | It remains unclear whether lawmakers will agree to extend the more generous unemployment benefits, which expire at the end of July, or if they will provide any additional aid beyond the $2 trillion stimulus package that passed in March. |
| House Democrats included a provision in the $3 trillion stimulus bill passed on Friday, which includes extending that benefit through January 2021. Republicans have rejected the House bill, which they do not plan to vote on in the Senate, and several have shared Mr. Kudlow’s concern that the higher unemployment insurance in particular could create a work disincentive. | House Democrats included a provision in the $3 trillion stimulus bill passed on Friday, which includes extending that benefit through January 2021. Republicans have rejected the House bill, which they do not plan to vote on in the Senate, and several have shared Mr. Kudlow’s concern that the higher unemployment insurance in particular could create a work disincentive. |
| If a new support package does come, it is unclear when that will happen. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Thursday that while additional government support was likely to be necessary, he was waiting to see how recent relief bills — which total nearly $3 trillion — play out. | If a new support package does come, it is unclear when that will happen. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Thursday that while additional government support was likely to be necessary, he was waiting to see how recent relief bills — which total nearly $3 trillion — play out. |
| “I think there is a strong likelihood we will need another bill,” he said, speaking at an event hosted by The Hill. “We’re going to step back for a few weeks and think very clearly how we need to spend more money and if we need to do that.” | “I think there is a strong likelihood we will need another bill,” he said, speaking at an event hosted by The Hill. “We’re going to step back for a few weeks and think very clearly how we need to spend more money and if we need to do that.” |
| President Trump and his advisers regularly say that once lockdowns end, growth in the United States will experience a rapid recovery. | President Trump and his advisers regularly say that once lockdowns end, growth in the United States will experience a rapid recovery. |
| “Next year is going to be an incredible economic year for this country,” Mr. Trump told reporters on Thursday. “One of our best.” | “Next year is going to be an incredible economic year for this country,” Mr. Trump told reporters on Thursday. “One of our best.” |
| Fed officials have expressed far less conviction, repeatedly warning that a rapid and steady rebound may be unlikely even as states reopen. | Fed officials have expressed far less conviction, repeatedly warning that a rapid and steady rebound may be unlikely even as states reopen. |
| The United States economy is confronting its sharpest downturn in nearly a century, with another 2.4 million people filing new unemployment claims last week. Central bankers have stressed repeatedly that the future will hinge on how the path of infection plays out, and when people feel comfortable resuming normal activity, like dining out or going to a sporting event. | The United States economy is confronting its sharpest downturn in nearly a century, with another 2.4 million people filing new unemployment claims last week. Central bankers have stressed repeatedly that the future will hinge on how the path of infection plays out, and when people feel comfortable resuming normal activity, like dining out or going to a sporting event. |
| “We are really in just an uncharted situation right now, and my own sense is that we’ll begin to get a better sense of the scenario and the trajectory that the economy is on in the early fall,” Mr. Clarida said while speaking Thursday on a webcast with the New York Association for Business Economics. | “We are really in just an uncharted situation right now, and my own sense is that we’ll begin to get a better sense of the scenario and the trajectory that the economy is on in the early fall,” Mr. Clarida said while speaking Thursday on a webcast with the New York Association for Business Economics. |
| Lael Brainard, a Fed governor speaking at the same webcast event as Mr. Powell, called the current moment an “emergency unprecedented in modern times.” She noted that the strong labor market the United States enjoyed last year had quickly given way to the highest unemployment rate since the Great Depression — 14.7 percent in April. | Lael Brainard, a Fed governor speaking at the same webcast event as Mr. Powell, called the current moment an “emergency unprecedented in modern times.” She noted that the strong labor market the United States enjoyed last year had quickly given way to the highest unemployment rate since the Great Depression — 14.7 percent in April. |
| Updated June 22, 2020 | Updated June 22, 2020 |
| A commentary published this month on the website of the British Journal of Sports Medicine points out that covering your face during exercise “comes with issues of potential breathing restriction and discomfort” and requires “balancing benefits versus possible adverse events.” Masks do alter exercise, says Cedric X. Bryant, the president and chief science officer of the American Council on Exercise, a nonprofit organization that funds exercise research and certifies fitness professionals. “In my personal experience,” he says, “heart rates are higher at the same relative intensity when you wear a mask.” Some people also could experience lightheadedness during familiar workouts while masked, says Len Kravitz, a professor of exercise science at the University of New Mexico. | A commentary published this month on the website of the British Journal of Sports Medicine points out that covering your face during exercise “comes with issues of potential breathing restriction and discomfort” and requires “balancing benefits versus possible adverse events.” Masks do alter exercise, says Cedric X. Bryant, the president and chief science officer of the American Council on Exercise, a nonprofit organization that funds exercise research and certifies fitness professionals. “In my personal experience,” he says, “heart rates are higher at the same relative intensity when you wear a mask.” Some people also could experience lightheadedness during familiar workouts while masked, says Len Kravitz, a professor of exercise science at the University of New Mexico. |
| The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth. | The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth. |
| The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave. | The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave. |
| So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. | So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. |
| Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. | Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. |
| A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. | A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. |
| The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April. | The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April. |
| States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people. | States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people. |
| Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. | Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. |
| If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) | If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) |
| If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. | If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. |
| If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested. | If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested. |
| Unemployment is likely to shoot higher before coming back down, several Fed officials warned, and while economic healing should start in earnest later the year, the speed and extent of that process are difficult to guess. | |
| John C. Williams, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said on Thursday that the pandemic put “a large question mark” over how industries would fare going forward. | John C. Williams, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said on Thursday that the pandemic put “a large question mark” over how industries would fare going forward. |
| “It’s impossible to know exactly how and when workers and businesses will be fully back to work and when consumers will return to the businesses that are open,” Mr. Williams said at an event held by several business groups based in upstate New York. | “It’s impossible to know exactly how and when workers and businesses will be fully back to work and when consumers will return to the businesses that are open,” Mr. Williams said at an event held by several business groups based in upstate New York. |
| Against that backdrop, the economy may need more help to make it through the downturn without permanent scarring. | Against that backdrop, the economy may need more help to make it through the downturn without permanent scarring. |
| The Fed cut interest rates to near-zero in March and has been buying immense sums of government-backed bonds, but the stimulative benefit of policies that keep borrowing costs low is limited in the depths of a crisis, when few families are buying houses and few companies are investing in machinery. | The Fed cut interest rates to near-zero in March and has been buying immense sums of government-backed bonds, but the stimulative benefit of policies that keep borrowing costs low is limited in the depths of a crisis, when few families are buying houses and few companies are investing in machinery. |
| The central bank and Treasury Department are introducing lending programs that can keep credit flowing into key markets if conditions worsen; those backstops offer companies and governments debts that need to be repaid. That may be an unhelpful salve if the crisis leaves them months behind on their bills, and facing a long future of uncertain revenue. | The central bank and Treasury Department are introducing lending programs that can keep credit flowing into key markets if conditions worsen; those backstops offer companies and governments debts that need to be repaid. That may be an unhelpful salve if the crisis leaves them months behind on their bills, and facing a long future of uncertain revenue. |
| Mr. Clarida reiterated on Thursday that the central bank’s policies could not fill all the needs created by the pandemic. | Mr. Clarida reiterated on Thursday that the central bank’s policies could not fill all the needs created by the pandemic. |
| “The Fed is not authorized to grant money to particular beneficiaries, to meet the payroll expenses of small businesses, or to underwrite the unemployment benefits of displaced workers,” he said. | “The Fed is not authorized to grant money to particular beneficiaries, to meet the payroll expenses of small businesses, or to underwrite the unemployment benefits of displaced workers,” he said. |