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What’s Ahead for California’s Economy? What’s Ahead for California’s Economy?
(1 day later)
By Jill Cowan, Tim Arango and Thomas FullerBy Jill Cowan, Tim Arango and Thomas Fuller
Good morning.Good morning.
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On Monday, state public health officials announced that houses of worship could reopen across the state, following Gov. Gavin Newsom’s reassurances Friday that guidelines for doing so were in the works.On Monday, state public health officials announced that houses of worship could reopen across the state, following Gov. Gavin Newsom’s reassurances Friday that guidelines for doing so were in the works.
That announcement came in apparent response to pressure from religious leaders and the president to allow in-person services.That announcement came in apparent response to pressure from religious leaders and the president to allow in-person services.
The new guidelines say that religious or cultural ceremonies — including funerals — can take place with county health department approval, and in buildings limited to 25 percent capacity or 100 people, whichever is lower.The new guidelines say that religious or cultural ceremonies — including funerals — can take place with county health department approval, and in buildings limited to 25 percent capacity or 100 people, whichever is lower.
The guidance also requires that places of worship establish an infection prevention plan and try to minimize or eliminate, if possible, singing or group recitations, which can spread coronavirus droplets, increasing others’ risk.The guidance also requires that places of worship establish an infection prevention plan and try to minimize or eliminate, if possible, singing or group recitations, which can spread coronavirus droplets, increasing others’ risk.
In 21 days, officials said, the state will re-evaluate the restrictions.In 21 days, officials said, the state will re-evaluate the restrictions.
Retail stores were also allowed to open their doors to customers statewide, under the same guidelines that public health officials previously released for the counties moving more quickly through the reopening process.Retail stores were also allowed to open their doors to customers statewide, under the same guidelines that public health officials previously released for the counties moving more quickly through the reopening process.
[Read more about the stages of California’s plan to gradually reopen.][Read more about the stages of California’s plan to gradually reopen.]
Now, here’s an update on the California economy from my colleagues Tim Arango and Thomas Fuller:Now, here’s an update on the California economy from my colleagues Tim Arango and Thomas Fuller:
Many of the strengths of the California economy — its role as a hub for commerce, tourism and education in the Pacific Rim — have become liabilities during the pandemic-induced recession. That was one of the conclusions of an article we wrote about the tough road ahead for the California economy.Many of the strengths of the California economy — its role as a hub for commerce, tourism and education in the Pacific Rim — have become liabilities during the pandemic-induced recession. That was one of the conclusions of an article we wrote about the tough road ahead for the California economy.
As part of our reporting we spoke to members of Governor Newsom’s economic recovery task force. Some predicted that the economic damage would most likely provoke a debate about the state’s tax structure. Many were concerned about the duration of the crisis and the consequences for people who were only just recovering financially from the previous recession.As part of our reporting we spoke to members of Governor Newsom’s economic recovery task force. Some predicted that the economic damage would most likely provoke a debate about the state’s tax structure. Many were concerned about the duration of the crisis and the consequences for people who were only just recovering financially from the previous recession.
[Read the full story about California’s economic future here.][Read the full story about California’s economic future here.]
Former Gov. Jerry Brown recalled his prediction, during his last budget presentation in 2018, for what lay ahead after so many years of economic expansion in California: “darkness, decline, uncertainty and recession.”Former Gov. Jerry Brown recalled his prediction, during his last budget presentation in 2018, for what lay ahead after so many years of economic expansion in California: “darkness, decline, uncertainty and recession.”
Mr. Brown invoked the state’s reliance on the earnings of wealthy residents, which means that in the face of a downturn, when the wealthy earn less from capital gains as markets tumble, tax revenues can drop suddenly.Mr. Brown invoked the state’s reliance on the earnings of wealthy residents, which means that in the face of a downturn, when the wealthy earn less from capital gains as markets tumble, tax revenues can drop suddenly.
[See how many coronavirus cases are in each California county.][See how many coronavirus cases are in each California county.]
“Because of the heavy reliance on income tax from higher incomes, it’s very volatile in California,” Mr. Brown said. “The swings are pretty big.”“Because of the heavy reliance on income tax from higher incomes, it’s very volatile in California,” Mr. Brown said. “The swings are pretty big.”
Former governors Gray Davis, a Democrat, and Pete Wilson, a Republican, advised Mr. Newsom to expansively exercise his emergency powers to get things done quickly.Former governors Gray Davis, a Democrat, and Pete Wilson, a Republican, advised Mr. Newsom to expansively exercise his emergency powers to get things done quickly.
Mr. Wilson invoked the rebuilding of the I-10 freeway after the 1994 Northridge earthquake and what he said was the importance of suspending certain rules and bureaucracy for development.Mr. Wilson invoked the rebuilding of the I-10 freeway after the 1994 Northridge earthquake and what he said was the importance of suspending certain rules and bureaucracy for development.
For Tom Steyer, the former presidential candidate who is heading Mr. Newsom’s task force, California faces a crisis very distinct from the recession caused by the 2008 housing collapse.For Tom Steyer, the former presidential candidate who is heading Mr. Newsom’s task force, California faces a crisis very distinct from the recession caused by the 2008 housing collapse.
“We are just at the front end of this,” Mr. Steyer said of the current crisis. “2008 was a bank-leveraged-based recession. And here we are talking about something completely different. It’s an economic free-fall. To compare the two is comparing apples and oranges.”“We are just at the front end of this,” Mr. Steyer said of the current crisis. “2008 was a bank-leveraged-based recession. And here we are talking about something completely different. It’s an economic free-fall. To compare the two is comparing apples and oranges.”
[Read a conversation with Tom Steyer.][Read a conversation with Tom Steyer.]
The current recession will have a “permanent impact,” Mr. Steyer said. “It accelerates trends that were in place and it breaks things,” he said referring to inequalities that worsened over the past decade.The current recession will have a “permanent impact,” Mr. Steyer said. “It accelerates trends that were in place and it breaks things,” he said referring to inequalities that worsened over the past decade.
Mr. Steyer sees California relying both on its people and technology to emerge from the recession.Mr. Steyer sees California relying both on its people and technology to emerge from the recession.
“I think we’re going to be well positioned based on our ability to have the strongest work force in the world and the strongest information technology in the world,” he said.“I think we’re going to be well positioned based on our ability to have the strongest work force in the world and the strongest information technology in the world,” he said.
Janet Yellen, the former chair of the Federal Reserve (as well as former head of the San Francisco Fed), said she was skeptical of the view that the economy will “snap back.”Janet Yellen, the former chair of the Federal Reserve (as well as former head of the San Francisco Fed), said she was skeptical of the view that the economy will “snap back.”
“I personally don’t think that’s what’s likely to happen,” she said.“I personally don’t think that’s what’s likely to happen,” she said.
What will be crucial both for California and the country as a whole is the duration of the pandemic, she said.What will be crucial both for California and the country as a whole is the duration of the pandemic, she said.
“If this lasts a long time, bad things happen,” Ms. Yellen said, referring to the banking system and the ability of companies to weather the downturn.“If this lasts a long time, bad things happen,” Ms. Yellen said, referring to the banking system and the ability of companies to weather the downturn.
Updated June 30, 2020
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
Scientists around the country have tried to identify everyday materials that do a good job of filtering microscopic particles. In recent tests, HEPA furnace filters scored high, as did vacuum cleaner bags, fabric similar to flannel pajamas and those of 600-count pillowcases. Other materials tested included layered coffee filters and scarves and bandannas. These scored lower, but still captured a small percentage of particles.
A commentary published this month on the website of the British Journal of Sports Medicine points out that covering your face during exercise “comes with issues of potential breathing restriction and discomfort” and requires “balancing benefits versus possible adverse events.” Masks do alter exercise, says Cedric X. Bryant, the president and chief science officer of the American Council on Exercise, a nonprofit organization that funds exercise research and certifies fitness professionals. “In my personal experience,” he says, “heart rates are higher at the same relative intensity when you wear a mask.” Some people also could experience lightheadedness during familiar workouts while masked, says Len Kravitz, a professor of exercise science at the University of New Mexico.
The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth.
The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave.
So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement.
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.
The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
Ann O’Leary, chief of staff to Mr. Newsom who is also co-chair of the economic recovery task force, said the recession would reveal the “leaks” in California’s safety net.Ann O’Leary, chief of staff to Mr. Newsom who is also co-chair of the economic recovery task force, said the recession would reveal the “leaks” in California’s safety net.
“People could not afford to live in California and now they are impacted all the more,” she said.“People could not afford to live in California and now they are impacted all the more,” she said.
[Read more about who’s likely to become unemployed as a result of the pandemic.][Read more about who’s likely to become unemployed as a result of the pandemic.]
It was a point also made by Manuel Pastor, another member of the task force and a professor of sociology and economics at the University of Southern California.It was a point also made by Manuel Pastor, another member of the task force and a professor of sociology and economics at the University of Southern California.
“This disease has revealed our sickness, meaning all the pre-existing conditions of a lack of health insurance, of precarity in the economy, the insecurity of legal status in the country,” Professor Pastor said.“This disease has revealed our sickness, meaning all the pre-existing conditions of a lack of health insurance, of precarity in the economy, the insecurity of legal status in the country,” Professor Pastor said.
“This is clearly an opportunity to both address what we need to do in the short term, but also to think not so much about recovery, although that’s the name of the task force, but how do we reimagine a more equitable, inclusive and sustainable economy?”“This is clearly an opportunity to both address what we need to do in the short term, but also to think not so much about recovery, although that’s the name of the task force, but how do we reimagine a more equitable, inclusive and sustainable economy?”
We often link to sites that limit access for nonsubscribers. We appreciate your reading Times coverage, but we also encourage you to support local news if you can.We often link to sites that limit access for nonsubscribers. We appreciate your reading Times coverage, but we also encourage you to support local news if you can.
Imagine a city of 100,000 that was here on New Year’s Day now almost completely wiped off the map. On Sunday, The Times printed just some of the names of the nearly 100,000 Americans who have died in the pandemic. Spend some time learning about them. [The New York Times]Imagine a city of 100,000 that was here on New Year’s Day now almost completely wiped off the map. On Sunday, The Times printed just some of the names of the nearly 100,000 Americans who have died in the pandemic. Spend some time learning about them. [The New York Times]
Americans hit the beaches for a subdued Memorial Day. [The New York Times]Americans hit the beaches for a subdued Memorial Day. [The New York Times]
What does the pandemic tell us about the political map? More people are dying where Democrats live. [The New York Times]What does the pandemic tell us about the political map? More people are dying where Democrats live. [The New York Times]
Are the SAT and the ACT tests useful yardsticks or a “proxy for privilege?” Dig into the debate. [The New York Times]Are the SAT and the ACT tests useful yardsticks or a “proxy for privilege?” Dig into the debate. [The New York Times]
Mayors of almost all of Orange County’s 34 cities plan to ask county supervisors to let cities dole out $75 million in federal money to help small businesses. County officials have denied them once before. [The Orange County Register]Mayors of almost all of Orange County’s 34 cities plan to ask county supervisors to let cities dole out $75 million in federal money to help small businesses. County officials have denied them once before. [The Orange County Register]
A four-alarm blaze that drew 150 firefighters destroyed a quarter of the structures on San Francisco’s Pier 45 early on Saturday morning. [The New York Times]A four-alarm blaze that drew 150 firefighters destroyed a quarter of the structures on San Francisco’s Pier 45 early on Saturday morning. [The New York Times]
Restaurants and delivery apps are fighting over fees. Some cities, like Los Angeles, are capping them. [Marketplace]Restaurants and delivery apps are fighting over fees. Some cities, like Los Angeles, are capping them. [Marketplace]
Bar doormen using contact-tracing apps, private dining rooms, food delivery with branded restaurant swag? Experts talk through the speculative future of drinking and dining. [The San Francisco Chronicle]Bar doormen using contact-tracing apps, private dining rooms, food delivery with branded restaurant swag? Experts talk through the speculative future of drinking and dining. [The San Francisco Chronicle]
Though it would be easy to categorize House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s masks — coordinated with her suits — as just fun, the statement is more nuanced. [The New York Times]Though it would be easy to categorize House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s masks — coordinated with her suits — as just fun, the statement is more nuanced. [The New York Times]
California Today goes live at 6:30 a.m. Pacific time weekdays. Tell us what you want to see: CAtoday@nytimes.com. Were you forwarded this email? Sign up for California Today here and read every edition online here.California Today goes live at 6:30 a.m. Pacific time weekdays. Tell us what you want to see: CAtoday@nytimes.com. Were you forwarded this email? Sign up for California Today here and read every edition online here.
Jill Cowan grew up in Orange County, went to school at U.C. Berkeley and has reported all over the state, including the Bay Area, Bakersfield and Los Angeles — but she always wants to see more. Follow along here or on Twitter.Jill Cowan grew up in Orange County, went to school at U.C. Berkeley and has reported all over the state, including the Bay Area, Bakersfield and Los Angeles — but she always wants to see more. Follow along here or on Twitter.
California Today is edited by Julie Bloom, who grew up in Los Angeles and graduated from U.C. Berkeley.California Today is edited by Julie Bloom, who grew up in Los Angeles and graduated from U.C. Berkeley.