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| ‘Still Catching Up’: Jobless Numbers May Not Tell Full Story | ‘Still Catching Up’: Jobless Numbers May Not Tell Full Story |
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| More than 40 million people — the equivalent of one out of every four American workers — have filed for unemployment benefits since the coronavirus pandemic grabbed hold in mid-March, the government reported on Thursday, an astounding tally that rivals the bleakest years of the Great Depression. | More than 40 million people — the equivalent of one out of every four American workers — have filed for unemployment benefits since the coronavirus pandemic grabbed hold in mid-March, the government reported on Thursday, an astounding tally that rivals the bleakest years of the Great Depression. |
| The latest additions — the 2.1 million people who filed state unemployment claims last week — may not be only a result of fresh layoffs, but also evidence that states are working their way through some of the choking backlog. | The latest additions — the 2.1 million people who filed state unemployment claims last week — may not be only a result of fresh layoffs, but also evidence that states are working their way through some of the choking backlog. |
| “We’re still catching up,” Diane Swonk, chief economist at the accounting firm Grant Thornton, said of the newest claims. “The lags have been long.” | “We’re still catching up,” Diane Swonk, chief economist at the accounting firm Grant Thornton, said of the newest claims. “The lags have been long.” |
| The Labor Department report marks the eighth week in a row that new jobless claims, on a seasonally adjusted basis, dipped from the peak of almost 6.9 million — but the level is still far above any other historical highs. | The Labor Department report marks the eighth week in a row that new jobless claims, on a seasonally adjusted basis, dipped from the peak of almost 6.9 million — but the level is still far above any other historical highs. |
| At the same time, overcounting in some places and undercounting in others makes it difficult to precisely measure the number of layoffs caused by the pandemic — and in devising a policy response. | At the same time, overcounting in some places and undercounting in others makes it difficult to precisely measure the number of layoffs caused by the pandemic — and in devising a policy response. |
| “When we think about what to do when benefits expire, it would be helpful to know how many people are actually getting them,” said Elizabeth Pancotti, a research assistant at the National Bureau of Economic Research. While the Labor Department reports may be the best source of information, she said, they offer an “incomplete picture.” | “When we think about what to do when benefits expire, it would be helpful to know how many people are actually getting them,” said Elizabeth Pancotti, a research assistant at the National Bureau of Economic Research. While the Labor Department reports may be the best source of information, she said, they offer an “incomplete picture.” |
| Shelter-in-place orders and business restrictions have been lifting across the country, and there is evidence in the report that some workers are being called back: The number of people receiving state jobless benefits dropped by roughly 3.8 million to 21.1 million for the week ended May 16. | Shelter-in-place orders and business restrictions have been lifting across the country, and there is evidence in the report that some workers are being called back: The number of people receiving state jobless benefits dropped by roughly 3.8 million to 21.1 million for the week ended May 16. |
| But as Ms. Swonk noted, “it’s not enough to offset the extraordinary economic devastation and job losses associated with Covid-19.” | But as Ms. Swonk noted, “it’s not enough to offset the extraordinary economic devastation and job losses associated with Covid-19.” |
| And while rehiring certainly accounts for a chunk of that decline, workers who had exhausted their weekly state benefits would also be reflected. | And while rehiring certainly accounts for a chunk of that decline, workers who had exhausted their weekly state benefits would also be reflected. |
| Reopenings remain bumpy and incomplete, and flare-ups of the coronavirus continue to disrupt business. On Tuesday, Ford Motor temporarily halted production at the Kansas City assembly plant in Missouri to deep clean after an employee tested positive for the virus. Two other Ford plants — in Chicago and Dearborn, Mich. — were also temporarily closed. | Reopenings remain bumpy and incomplete, and flare-ups of the coronavirus continue to disrupt business. On Tuesday, Ford Motor temporarily halted production at the Kansas City assembly plant in Missouri to deep clean after an employee tested positive for the virus. Two other Ford plants — in Chicago and Dearborn, Mich. — were also temporarily closed. |
| In Thursday’s report, the department offered two sets of figures. One includes the more than 40 million people who have applied for state benefits and is seasonally adjusted. The other includes those who applied under the new federal emergency program called Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and is not seasonally adjusted. So far, more than 10 million have applied. | In Thursday’s report, the department offered two sets of figures. One includes the more than 40 million people who have applied for state benefits and is seasonally adjusted. The other includes those who applied under the new federal emergency program called Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and is not seasonally adjusted. So far, more than 10 million have applied. |
| Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, part of an expanded palette of jobless benefits passed by Congress two months ago, is meant to help freelancers, gig workers, the self-employed and others who would not normally qualify under state rules. | Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, part of an expanded palette of jobless benefits passed by Congress two months ago, is meant to help freelancers, gig workers, the self-employed and others who would not normally qualify under state rules. |
| But several economists suspect that there is a lot of double counting and warn against simply adding figures from the two programs together. | But several economists suspect that there is a lot of double counting and warn against simply adding figures from the two programs together. |
| Some states, flooded with applicants, were slow to put the pandemic program into effect. Initially, many people were mistakenly told they were ineligible. Others were instructed to apply for state benefits first and be rejected before applying for the federal benefits. | Some states, flooded with applicants, were slow to put the pandemic program into effect. Initially, many people were mistakenly told they were ineligible. Others were instructed to apply for state benefits first and be rejected before applying for the federal benefits. |
| That confused application process has caused potentially millions of laid-off workers to be counted twice. States are also weeding out duplicate applications from frustrated filers who had trouble getting through or did not receive any response after weeks of waiting. | That confused application process has caused potentially millions of laid-off workers to be counted twice. States are also weeding out duplicate applications from frustrated filers who had trouble getting through or did not receive any response after weeks of waiting. |
| Then there are the mistakes. A data entry slip-up caused Massachusetts to pump up the number of federal claims by nearly a million last week. The previous week, a similar flub in Connecticut mistakenly inflated its total by a quarter of a million. | Then there are the mistakes. A data entry slip-up caused Massachusetts to pump up the number of federal claims by nearly a million last week. The previous week, a similar flub in Connecticut mistakenly inflated its total by a quarter of a million. |
| “It’s unclear if states are including duplicate claims due to error, fraud or the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program,” said Ernie Tedeschi, a policy economist at Evercore ISI in Washington. | “It’s unclear if states are including duplicate claims due to error, fraud or the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program,” said Ernie Tedeschi, a policy economist at Evercore ISI in Washington. |
| Updated July 7, 2020 | |
| The coronavirus can stay aloft for hours in tiny droplets in stagnant air, infecting people as they inhale, mounting scientific evidence suggests. This risk is highest in crowded indoor spaces with poor ventilation, and may help explain super-spreading events reported in meatpacking plants, churches and restaurants. It’s unclear how often the virus is spread via these tiny droplets, or aerosols, compared with larger droplets that are expelled when a sick person coughs or sneezes, or transmitted through contact with contaminated surfaces, said Linsey Marr, an aerosol expert at Virginia Tech. Aerosols are released even when a person without symptoms exhales, talks or sings, according to Dr. Marr and more than 200 other experts, who have outlined the evidence in an open letter to the World Health Organization. | |
| Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. | Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. |
| Scientists around the country have tried to identify everyday materials that do a good job of filtering microscopic particles. In recent tests, HEPA furnace filters scored high, as did vacuum cleaner bags, fabric similar to flannel pajamas and those of 600-count pillowcases. Other materials tested included layered coffee filters and scarves and bandannas. These scored lower, but still captured a small percentage of particles. | Scientists around the country have tried to identify everyday materials that do a good job of filtering microscopic particles. In recent tests, HEPA furnace filters scored high, as did vacuum cleaner bags, fabric similar to flannel pajamas and those of 600-count pillowcases. Other materials tested included layered coffee filters and scarves and bandannas. These scored lower, but still captured a small percentage of particles. |
| A commentary published this month on the website of the British Journal of Sports Medicine points out that covering your face during exercise “comes with issues of potential breathing restriction and discomfort” and requires “balancing benefits versus possible adverse events.” Masks do alter exercise, says Cedric X. Bryant, the president and chief science officer of the American Council on Exercise, a nonprofit organization that funds exercise research and certifies fitness professionals. “In my personal experience,” he says, “heart rates are higher at the same relative intensity when you wear a mask.” Some people also could experience lightheadedness during familiar workouts while masked, says Len Kravitz, a professor of exercise science at the University of New Mexico. | A commentary published this month on the website of the British Journal of Sports Medicine points out that covering your face during exercise “comes with issues of potential breathing restriction and discomfort” and requires “balancing benefits versus possible adverse events.” Masks do alter exercise, says Cedric X. Bryant, the president and chief science officer of the American Council on Exercise, a nonprofit organization that funds exercise research and certifies fitness professionals. “In my personal experience,” he says, “heart rates are higher at the same relative intensity when you wear a mask.” Some people also could experience lightheadedness during familiar workouts while masked, says Len Kravitz, a professor of exercise science at the University of New Mexico. |
| The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth. | The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth. |
| The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave. | The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave. |
| So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. | So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. |
| Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. | Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. |
| A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. | A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. |
| If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) | If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) |
| If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. | If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. |
| But that is not all. That system is also probably missing millions of other laid-off workers. | But that is not all. That system is also probably missing millions of other laid-off workers. |
| As of Tuesday, three states had not put the pandemic unemployment insurance program into effect, and several others have yet to report any claims. Thirteen states have not started another federal emergency relief program, to provide an additional 13 weeks of benefits to workers who have exhausted their state benefits. | As of Tuesday, three states had not put the pandemic unemployment insurance program into effect, and several others have yet to report any claims. Thirteen states have not started another federal emergency relief program, to provide an additional 13 weeks of benefits to workers who have exhausted their state benefits. |
| Laid-off workers who have not applied for benefits and those who have left the labor force entirely are not included in the claims numbers. Nor are any of the eight million undocumented workers who lost their jobs. They are not eligible for any benefits. Neither are new graduates just entering the labor force. | Laid-off workers who have not applied for benefits and those who have left the labor force entirely are not included in the claims numbers. Nor are any of the eight million undocumented workers who lost their jobs. They are not eligible for any benefits. Neither are new graduates just entering the labor force. |
| Matthew Wilson, 24, who lost his barista job in Philadelphia, was turned down because he had been working in the state for less than a year. | Matthew Wilson, 24, who lost his barista job in Philadelphia, was turned down because he had been working in the state for less than a year. |
| “It doesn’t make any sense — I moved, and now I’m magically not qualified for unemployment?” said Mr. Wilson, who relocated to Pennsylvania after graduating from Tufts University in Massachusetts last year. He appealed the decision and heard last week that his claim had been approved, but he hasn’t received any money. His partner, who also lost her job as a barista, has applied four times but has yet to collect benefits. | “It doesn’t make any sense — I moved, and now I’m magically not qualified for unemployment?” said Mr. Wilson, who relocated to Pennsylvania after graduating from Tufts University in Massachusetts last year. He appealed the decision and heard last week that his claim had been approved, but he hasn’t received any money. His partner, who also lost her job as a barista, has applied four times but has yet to collect benefits. |
| As for regular unemployment benefits, states draw up their own rules and administer benefits. The result is that in some places, like Florida, Texas and Arizona, only a small fraction of jobless workers are receiving benefits, while other states offer much broader coverage. | As for regular unemployment benefits, states draw up their own rules and administer benefits. The result is that in some places, like Florida, Texas and Arizona, only a small fraction of jobless workers are receiving benefits, while other states offer much broader coverage. |
| The way “initial claims” are counted may also vary by state, with some excluding claims that have not been processed. | The way “initial claims” are counted may also vary by state, with some excluding claims that have not been processed. |
| Laurie Yadoff, a lawyer at Coast to Coast Legal Aid of South Florida, said she had about 100 clients who qualify for regular state benefits but have had trouble filing. Many are poor and older, with limited or no access to the internet. “A lot of them fall into the regular state benefit program, and a lot of them are straightforward, and a lot of them are still not getting money,” she said. | Laurie Yadoff, a lawyer at Coast to Coast Legal Aid of South Florida, said she had about 100 clients who qualify for regular state benefits but have had trouble filing. Many are poor and older, with limited or no access to the internet. “A lot of them fall into the regular state benefit program, and a lot of them are straightforward, and a lot of them are still not getting money,” she said. |
| Even when Ms. Yadoff has been able to get someone on the phone, the person at the other end often doesn’t know the answer. “People are desperate and frustrated,” she said. “They don’t know what to do.” | Even when Ms. Yadoff has been able to get someone on the phone, the person at the other end often doesn’t know the answer. “People are desperate and frustrated,” she said. “They don’t know what to do.” |
| Monitoring withdrawals from the Treasury Department, Mr. Tedeschi of Evercore estimated that by early May, roughly three-quarters of those eligible for benefits had started to receive them. | Monitoring withdrawals from the Treasury Department, Mr. Tedeschi of Evercore estimated that by early May, roughly three-quarters of those eligible for benefits had started to receive them. |
| Allison Hester, who is 50 and lives in Little Rock, Ark., applied for unemployment after being laid off from her job in content marketing at a window cleaning supply company in March, but was never able to get through. “I tried on and off for a month, but our system was so overwhelmed.” | Allison Hester, who is 50 and lives in Little Rock, Ark., applied for unemployment after being laid off from her job in content marketing at a window cleaning supply company in March, but was never able to get through. “I tried on and off for a month, but our system was so overwhelmed.” |
| She returned to her job this month. “It feels good, but I don’t feel secure anymore,” Ms. Hester said. “I don’t take anything for granted.” | She returned to her job this month. “It feels good, but I don’t feel secure anymore,” Ms. Hester said. “I don’t take anything for granted.” |
| Nelson D. Schwartz and Tiffany Hsu contributed reporting. | Nelson D. Schwartz and Tiffany Hsu contributed reporting. |