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| Millions Relying on Pandemic Aid Can See Its End, and They’re Scared | Millions Relying on Pandemic Aid Can See Its End, and They’re Scared |
| (6 days later) | |
| For millions of Americans left out of work by the coronavirus pandemic, government assistance has been a lifeline preventing a plunge into poverty, hunger and financial ruin. | For millions of Americans left out of work by the coronavirus pandemic, government assistance has been a lifeline preventing a plunge into poverty, hunger and financial ruin. |
| This summer, that lifeline could snap. | This summer, that lifeline could snap. |
| The $1,200 checks sent to most households are long gone, at least for those who needed them most, with little imminent prospect for a second round. The lending program that helped millions of small businesses keep workers on the payroll will wind down if Congress does not extend it. Eviction moratoriums that are keeping people in their homes are expiring in many cities. | The $1,200 checks sent to most households are long gone, at least for those who needed them most, with little imminent prospect for a second round. The lending program that helped millions of small businesses keep workers on the payroll will wind down if Congress does not extend it. Eviction moratoriums that are keeping people in their homes are expiring in many cities. |
| And the $600 per week in extra unemployment benefits that have allowed tens of millions of laid-off workers to pay rent and buy groceries will expire at the end of July. | And the $600 per week in extra unemployment benefits that have allowed tens of millions of laid-off workers to pay rent and buy groceries will expire at the end of July. |
| The latest sign of the economic strain and the government’s role in easing it came Thursday when the Labor Department reported that millions more Americans applied for unemployment benefits last week. More than 40 million have filed for benefits since the crisis began, and some 30 million are receiving them. | The latest sign of the economic strain and the government’s role in easing it came Thursday when the Labor Department reported that millions more Americans applied for unemployment benefits last week. More than 40 million have filed for benefits since the crisis began, and some 30 million are receiving them. |
| The multitrillion-dollar patchwork of federal and state programs hasn’t kept bills from piling up or prevented long lines at food banks. But it has mitigated the damage. Now the expiration of those programs represents a cliff they are hurtling toward, for individuals and for the economy. | The multitrillion-dollar patchwork of federal and state programs hasn’t kept bills from piling up or prevented long lines at food banks. But it has mitigated the damage. Now the expiration of those programs represents a cliff they are hurtling toward, for individuals and for the economy. |
| “The CARES Act was massive, but it was a very short-term offset to what is likely to be a long-term problem,” said Aneta Markowska, chief financial economist for the investment bank Jefferies, referring to the legislative centerpiece of the federal rescue. “This economy is clearly going to need more support.” | “The CARES Act was massive, but it was a very short-term offset to what is likely to be a long-term problem,” said Aneta Markowska, chief financial economist for the investment bank Jefferies, referring to the legislative centerpiece of the federal rescue. “This economy is clearly going to need more support.” |
| Even the possibility that the programs will be allowed to expire could have economic consequences, Ms. Markowska said, as consumers and businesses gird for the loss of federal assistance. | Even the possibility that the programs will be allowed to expire could have economic consequences, Ms. Markowska said, as consumers and businesses gird for the loss of federal assistance. |
| President Trump and other Republicans have played down the need for more spending, saying the solution is for states to reopen businesses and allow companies to bring people back to work. So despite pleas from economists across the political spectrum — including Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair — any federal action is likely to be limited. | President Trump and other Republicans have played down the need for more spending, saying the solution is for states to reopen businesses and allow companies to bring people back to work. So despite pleas from economists across the political spectrum — including Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair — any federal action is likely to be limited. |
| The House voted overwhelmingly Thursday to give businesses more time to use money borrowed under the Paycheck Protection Program, which offers forgivable loans to small businesses that retain or rehire their workers. The bill’s fate in the Senate is uncertain, but a deal seems likely. | The House voted overwhelmingly Thursday to give businesses more time to use money borrowed under the Paycheck Protection Program, which offers forgivable loans to small businesses that retain or rehire their workers. The bill’s fate in the Senate is uncertain, but a deal seems likely. |
| A bipartisan group of lawmakers has separately proposed expanding a tax credit meant to subsidize wages, and the expanded unemployment benefits program may be extended. But Mitch McConnell, the Senate majority leader, has said that any additional aid package must be far narrower than previous packages. | A bipartisan group of lawmakers has separately proposed expanding a tax credit meant to subsidize wages, and the expanded unemployment benefits program may be extended. But Mitch McConnell, the Senate majority leader, has said that any additional aid package must be far narrower than previous packages. |
| The delivery of aid has been far from seamless. Many applicants waited weeks or months for payments. But the assistance has had an impact on millions of families. | The delivery of aid has been far from seamless. Many applicants waited weeks or months for payments. But the assistance has had an impact on millions of families. |
| “I have people regularly who are calling me just crying because they’ve gotten their payments and they can actually pay rent and pay back some of the things that they were defaulting on,” said Michele Evermore, a senior policy analyst at the National Employment Law Project. | “I have people regularly who are calling me just crying because they’ve gotten their payments and they can actually pay rent and pay back some of the things that they were defaulting on,” said Michele Evermore, a senior policy analyst at the National Employment Law Project. |
| When Nakitta Long was laid off on March 30, her first thought was the $900 rent payment due two days later. She was barely getting by on $507 a week as a temporary employee at a North Carolina automotive plant. Now she would be receiving just $223 per week in unemployment benefits — if she could get through to apply, which took weeks. | When Nakitta Long was laid off on March 30, her first thought was the $900 rent payment due two days later. She was barely getting by on $507 a week as a temporary employee at a North Carolina automotive plant. Now she would be receiving just $223 per week in unemployment benefits — if she could get through to apply, which took weeks. |
| Federal assistance provided a bridge. In April she got a $2,200 stimulus payment — $1,200 for her and $500 for each of her two minor children — which covered rent and her car payment. Then she started collecting the $600 per week in additional unemployment benefits, which means she is earning more than she was at work. | Federal assistance provided a bridge. In April she got a $2,200 stimulus payment — $1,200 for her and $500 for each of her two minor children — which covered rent and her car payment. Then she started collecting the $600 per week in additional unemployment benefits, which means she is earning more than she was at work. |
| “I don’t know where I would be,” Ms. Long said. “If I wasn’t getting the unemployment that I’m getting, and then the $600 boost and the stimulus, we would have been homeless.” | “I don’t know where I would be,” Ms. Long said. “If I wasn’t getting the unemployment that I’m getting, and then the $600 boost and the stimulus, we would have been homeless.” |
| Ms. Long, 44, is figuring out what to do when the help runs out. She is scared to return to work with the virus still spreading, and unsure how she will do so if schools and day care centers remain closed. Most available jobs pay less than $15 an hour, which won’t cover her bills. | Ms. Long, 44, is figuring out what to do when the help runs out. She is scared to return to work with the virus still spreading, and unsure how she will do so if schools and day care centers remain closed. Most available jobs pay less than $15 an hour, which won’t cover her bills. |
| “I’ll have to take whatever’s available, to be honest with you,” she said. “I don’t think I’ll have time to weigh it. Rent’s going to have to be paid. Lights are going to have to be paid.” | “I’ll have to take whatever’s available, to be honest with you,” she said. “I don’t think I’ll have time to weigh it. Rent’s going to have to be paid. Lights are going to have to be paid.” |
| The Democratic-led House passed a $3 trillion package this month that would extend the extra jobless benefits, send another round of $1,200 checks to households and provide aid to state and local governments, among other provisions. The measure stands no chance of becoming law as written. | The Democratic-led House passed a $3 trillion package this month that would extend the extra jobless benefits, send another round of $1,200 checks to households and provide aid to state and local governments, among other provisions. The measure stands no chance of becoming law as written. |
| “I think about a month from now, we’ll take a look at how things are going and be able to make a more intelligent decision than a grab-bag of $3 trillion,” Mr. McConnell, the Senate leader, said Thursday at an event in Kentucky. | “I think about a month from now, we’ll take a look at how things are going and be able to make a more intelligent decision than a grab-bag of $3 trillion,” Mr. McConnell, the Senate leader, said Thursday at an event in Kentucky. |
| To some Republican lawmakers, extra unemployment benefits and other assistance made sense when businesses were shut down and the government was discouraging people from leaving home. But as the economy reopens, they say, the benefits could impede the recovery by providing an incentive not to return to work. | To some Republican lawmakers, extra unemployment benefits and other assistance made sense when businesses were shut down and the government was discouraging people from leaving home. But as the economy reopens, they say, the benefits could impede the recovery by providing an incentive not to return to work. |
| Many economists feel those fears are overblown. Generous benefits might be a deterrent to work in normal times, they argue, but these are hardly normal times. Even the most optimistic forecasters expect the unemployment rate to be well above 10 percent when the extra benefits expire, meaning there will be far more jobless workers than available jobs. | Many economists feel those fears are overblown. Generous benefits might be a deterrent to work in normal times, they argue, but these are hardly normal times. Even the most optimistic forecasters expect the unemployment rate to be well above 10 percent when the extra benefits expire, meaning there will be far more jobless workers than available jobs. |
| “The idea that — at an unemployment rate drastically higher than at the worst part of the great recession — we’re going to pull back support is just unbelievable,” said Jay Shambaugh, director of the Hamilton Project, an economic policy arm of the Brookings Institution. | “The idea that — at an unemployment rate drastically higher than at the worst part of the great recession — we’re going to pull back support is just unbelievable,” said Jay Shambaugh, director of the Hamilton Project, an economic policy arm of the Brookings Institution. |
| Research routinely finds that unemployment insurance is one of the most effective parts of the safety net, both in cushioning the effects of job loss on families and in lifting the economy. In economists’ parlance, the program is “well targeted” — it goes to people who need the money and who will spend it. Various studies have found that in the last recession, the system helped prevent 1.4 million foreclosures, saved two million jobs and kept five million people out of poverty. | Research routinely finds that unemployment insurance is one of the most effective parts of the safety net, both in cushioning the effects of job loss on families and in lifting the economy. In economists’ parlance, the program is “well targeted” — it goes to people who need the money and who will spend it. Various studies have found that in the last recession, the system helped prevent 1.4 million foreclosures, saved two million jobs and kept five million people out of poverty. |
| The impact could be greater in this crisis because the program is reaching more people and giving them more money. The government paid $48 billion in benefits in April and has reached $86 billion in May, according to the Treasury Department. | The impact could be greater in this crisis because the program is reaching more people and giving them more money. The government paid $48 billion in benefits in April and has reached $86 billion in May, according to the Treasury Department. |
| Updated July 7, 2020 | |
| The coronavirus can stay aloft for hours in tiny droplets in stagnant air, infecting people as they inhale, mounting scientific evidence suggests. This risk is highest in crowded indoor spaces with poor ventilation, and may help explain super-spreading events reported in meatpacking plants, churches and restaurants. It’s unclear how often the virus is spread via these tiny droplets, or aerosols, compared with larger droplets that are expelled when a sick person coughs or sneezes, or transmitted through contact with contaminated surfaces, said Linsey Marr, an aerosol expert at Virginia Tech. Aerosols are released even when a person without symptoms exhales, talks or sings, according to Dr. Marr and more than 200 other experts, who have outlined the evidence in an open letter to the World Health Organization. | |
| Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. | Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. |
| Scientists around the country have tried to identify everyday materials that do a good job of filtering microscopic particles. In recent tests, HEPA furnace filters scored high, as did vacuum cleaner bags, fabric similar to flannel pajamas and those of 600-count pillowcases. Other materials tested included layered coffee filters and scarves and bandannas. These scored lower, but still captured a small percentage of particles. | Scientists around the country have tried to identify everyday materials that do a good job of filtering microscopic particles. In recent tests, HEPA furnace filters scored high, as did vacuum cleaner bags, fabric similar to flannel pajamas and those of 600-count pillowcases. Other materials tested included layered coffee filters and scarves and bandannas. These scored lower, but still captured a small percentage of particles. |
| A commentary published this month on the website of the British Journal of Sports Medicine points out that covering your face during exercise “comes with issues of potential breathing restriction and discomfort” and requires “balancing benefits versus possible adverse events.” Masks do alter exercise, says Cedric X. Bryant, the president and chief science officer of the American Council on Exercise, a nonprofit organization that funds exercise research and certifies fitness professionals. “In my personal experience,” he says, “heart rates are higher at the same relative intensity when you wear a mask.” Some people also could experience lightheadedness during familiar workouts while masked, says Len Kravitz, a professor of exercise science at the University of New Mexico. | A commentary published this month on the website of the British Journal of Sports Medicine points out that covering your face during exercise “comes with issues of potential breathing restriction and discomfort” and requires “balancing benefits versus possible adverse events.” Masks do alter exercise, says Cedric X. Bryant, the president and chief science officer of the American Council on Exercise, a nonprofit organization that funds exercise research and certifies fitness professionals. “In my personal experience,” he says, “heart rates are higher at the same relative intensity when you wear a mask.” Some people also could experience lightheadedness during familiar workouts while masked, says Len Kravitz, a professor of exercise science at the University of New Mexico. |
| The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth. | The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth. |
| The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave. | The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave. |
| So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. | So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. |
| Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. | Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. |
| A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. | A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. |
| If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) | If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) |
| If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. | If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. |
| Ms. Markowska, of Jefferies, expects government data on Friday to show that personal income actually increased in April thanks to the unemployment benefits, stimulus payments and other programs. That money has flowed through the economy in rent payments, grocery store trips and other spending — not only helping the recipients but also preventing a steeper downturn. | Ms. Markowska, of Jefferies, expects government data on Friday to show that personal income actually increased in April thanks to the unemployment benefits, stimulus payments and other programs. That money has flowed through the economy in rent payments, grocery store trips and other spending — not only helping the recipients but also preventing a steeper downturn. |
| “These are paycheck-to-paycheck folks, who are going to spend this money,” said Elizabeth Ananat, a Barnard College economist who has been studying the effects of the pandemic on low-wage workers. “They’re going to spend this money, keeping us from having a rent-payment crisis and from having a malnourished-children crisis. That strikes me as pretty good for the economy over all.” | “These are paycheck-to-paycheck folks, who are going to spend this money,” said Elizabeth Ananat, a Barnard College economist who has been studying the effects of the pandemic on low-wage workers. “They’re going to spend this money, keeping us from having a rent-payment crisis and from having a malnourished-children crisis. That strikes me as pretty good for the economy over all.” |
| When Julie Glasser was summoned to an online department meeting in late March, she thought she might learn how her company, a vacation-rental start-up in Portland, Ore., was scaling back acquisitions or adapting to the growing pandemic. It took until the end of the meeting for her boss to deliver the real news: Everyone on the call was laid off, immediately. | When Julie Glasser was summoned to an online department meeting in late March, she thought she might learn how her company, a vacation-rental start-up in Portland, Ore., was scaling back acquisitions or adapting to the growing pandemic. It took until the end of the meeting for her boss to deliver the real news: Everyone on the call was laid off, immediately. |
| A single mother of two, Ms. Glasser applied for unemployment benefits the same day. She enrolled in health insurance through the Affordable Care Act and signed up for food stamps. Still, there was no way she could cover her costs. | A single mother of two, Ms. Glasser applied for unemployment benefits the same day. She enrolled in health insurance through the Affordable Care Act and signed up for food stamps. Still, there was no way she could cover her costs. |
| “I did the quick math and realized that I could pay my mortgage and maybe get a few groceries and that was it,” she said. | “I did the quick math and realized that I could pay my mortgage and maybe get a few groceries and that was it,” she said. |
| A week later, Congress passed the CARES Act. In mid-April, Ms. Glasser received her first unemployment check with the extra money. But she is thinking about what will happen when that money runs out. | A week later, Congress passed the CARES Act. In mid-April, Ms. Glasser received her first unemployment check with the extra money. But she is thinking about what will happen when that money runs out. |
| “It’s a huge relief, and then it’s also this thought bubble up above my head of, ‘How long is this going to last?’” she said. “I definitely would not be able to survive right now on the payment that the state unemployment is making.” | “It’s a huge relief, and then it’s also this thought bubble up above my head of, ‘How long is this going to last?’” she said. “I definitely would not be able to survive right now on the payment that the state unemployment is making.” |
| The risk for Ms. Glasser and millions of other job seekers is that the pullback in government assistance will lead to a new round of layoffs just as they must try to return to work. | The risk for Ms. Glasser and millions of other job seekers is that the pullback in government assistance will lead to a new round of layoffs just as they must try to return to work. |
| All that uncertainty could lead to a pullback in spending even before programs expire. | All that uncertainty could lead to a pullback in spending even before programs expire. |
| Laura Mocker, an actress in New York City, has been out of work since mid-March, when theaters began canceling performances and the restaurant where she worked as a server shut down. It took her until April 12 — Easter Sunday — to get through to the state unemployment office. | Laura Mocker, an actress in New York City, has been out of work since mid-March, when theaters began canceling performances and the restaurant where she worked as a server shut down. It took her until April 12 — Easter Sunday — to get through to the state unemployment office. |
| Now that she is getting her benefits, Ms. Mocker has been able to pay the rent and other bills accrued during weeks of joblessness. But as the July 31 cliff approaches, she has cut back what little discretionary spending remained as she tries to build up her savings. | Now that she is getting her benefits, Ms. Mocker has been able to pay the rent and other bills accrued during weeks of joblessness. But as the July 31 cliff approaches, she has cut back what little discretionary spending remained as she tries to build up her savings. |
| “It’s pretty simple if you think about it,” she said. “If people don’t have money, they can’t spend it. And the people that do have money won’t spend it because they’re worried.” | “It’s pretty simple if you think about it,” she said. “If people don’t have money, they can’t spend it. And the people that do have money won’t spend it because they’re worried.” |
| Emily Cochrane and Jim Tankersley contributed reporting. | Emily Cochrane and Jim Tankersley contributed reporting. |