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Is America’s Pandemic Waning or Raging? Yes Is America’s Pandemic Waning or Raging? Yes
(about 7 hours later)
CHICAGO — In the weeks since America began reopening on a large scale, the coronavirus has persisted on a stubborn but uneven path, with meaningful progress in some cities and alarming new outbreaks in others.CHICAGO — In the weeks since America began reopening on a large scale, the coronavirus has persisted on a stubborn but uneven path, with meaningful progress in some cities and alarming new outbreaks in others.
A snapshot of the country on a single day last week revealed sharply divergent realities. As the United States marked the tragic milestone of 100,000 deaths from the coronavirus on Wednesday, the contrasting picture was unmistakable — a murky, jumbled outlook depending on one’s location.A snapshot of the country on a single day last week revealed sharply divergent realities. As the United States marked the tragic milestone of 100,000 deaths from the coronavirus on Wednesday, the contrasting picture was unmistakable — a murky, jumbled outlook depending on one’s location.
Around Chicago, Wednesday was one of the most lethal days of the pandemic, with more than 100 deaths. Among the dead: a woman in her 30s, and four men past their 90th birthdays.Around Chicago, Wednesday was one of the most lethal days of the pandemic, with more than 100 deaths. Among the dead: a woman in her 30s, and four men past their 90th birthdays.
In the Boston area, where an alarming crisis of a month ago has given way to cautious optimism, businesses were reopening that day and new cases numbered in the dozens, no longer the hundreds.In the Boston area, where an alarming crisis of a month ago has given way to cautious optimism, businesses were reopening that day and new cases numbered in the dozens, no longer the hundreds.
Around Rogers and Springdale in northwest Arkansas, which the virus had barely touched in the pandemic’s early weeks, poultry workers spent part of Wednesday planning a protest as outbreaks in at least two plants were driving a sudden surge in infection numbers.Around Rogers and Springdale in northwest Arkansas, which the virus had barely touched in the pandemic’s early weeks, poultry workers spent part of Wednesday planning a protest as outbreaks in at least two plants were driving a sudden surge in infection numbers.
The dizzying volatility from city to city and state to state could continue indefinitely, with vastly different policy implications for individual places and no single, unified course in sight.The dizzying volatility from city to city and state to state could continue indefinitely, with vastly different policy implications for individual places and no single, unified course in sight.
Some states are seeing vast improvements. But as the pandemic progresses, parts of the country may eventually need to reimpose restrictions, Dr. Tom Inglesby, the director of the Center for Health Security at Johns Hopkins University, said.Some states are seeing vast improvements. But as the pandemic progresses, parts of the country may eventually need to reimpose restrictions, Dr. Tom Inglesby, the director of the Center for Health Security at Johns Hopkins University, said.
“The country is divided in terms of its overall trajectory,” Dr. Inglesby said. “This virus is persistent. It hasn’t changed.”“The country is divided in terms of its overall trajectory,” Dr. Inglesby said. “This virus is persistent. It hasn’t changed.”
Understanding the coronavirus’s spread depends on where in America one is standing: New cases are on a small but steady decline over all, to about 21,000 a day from more than 30,000 at its April peak, a somewhat encouraging sign that the pandemic is waning in the United States.Understanding the coronavirus’s spread depends on where in America one is standing: New cases are on a small but steady decline over all, to about 21,000 a day from more than 30,000 at its April peak, a somewhat encouraging sign that the pandemic is waning in the United States.
It does not feel that way, though, in Chicago, where new coronavirus infections have remained steadily high. The city, America’s third-largest, has been shuttered since March, with little hope that life will return to normal soon. On Wednesday, surrounding Cook County added about 700 cases and about 100 deaths, its highest death toll in two weeks.It does not feel that way, though, in Chicago, where new coronavirus infections have remained steadily high. The city, America’s third-largest, has been shuttered since March, with little hope that life will return to normal soon. On Wednesday, surrounding Cook County added about 700 cases and about 100 deaths, its highest death toll in two weeks.
Playgrounds have been wrapped protectively with yellow tape, sending children away. Parks and beaches along Lake Michigan, a reliably popular draw in the fleeting Chicago summer, are closed and under guard of the police.Playgrounds have been wrapped protectively with yellow tape, sending children away. Parks and beaches along Lake Michigan, a reliably popular draw in the fleeting Chicago summer, are closed and under guard of the police.
On Wednesday, there was an eerie calm at Marge’s Still, one of the oldest taverns in the city, which has remained open, offering carryout dinner orders and drinks to go. Lisa Vakulin-Rose, a manager, arrived in the afternoon as usual, but with no one to serve at the bar, she had no fruit to slice for cocktails or glasses to polish. Instead, she opened the windows and side door, let the summerlike breeze flow in and waited for the phone to ring.On Wednesday, there was an eerie calm at Marge’s Still, one of the oldest taverns in the city, which has remained open, offering carryout dinner orders and drinks to go. Lisa Vakulin-Rose, a manager, arrived in the afternoon as usual, but with no one to serve at the bar, she had no fruit to slice for cocktails or glasses to polish. Instead, she opened the windows and side door, let the summerlike breeze flow in and waited for the phone to ring.
Regular customers have kept coming. They arrive and pick up their dinners, their to-go cocktails, their bottles of wine. Some are becoming impatient, asking: When are we going to be able to sit at this bar like before?Regular customers have kept coming. They arrive and pick up their dinners, their to-go cocktails, their bottles of wine. Some are becoming impatient, asking: When are we going to be able to sit at this bar like before?
“I’d love to be able to be in a normal state again,” Ms. Vakulin-Rose said. “But we’re not.”“I’d love to be able to be in a normal state again,” Ms. Vakulin-Rose said. “But we’re not.”
The Midwest is still troubled by persistent coronavirus outbreaks. Hospitalizations from the virus are on the rise in Wisconsin, an unnerving development after that state’s Supreme Court abruptly overturned a stay-at-home order in May. New cases are consistently high in Minnesota, particularly around the Twin Cities, where health officials have warned that escalating protests could increase the infection risk.The Midwest is still troubled by persistent coronavirus outbreaks. Hospitalizations from the virus are on the rise in Wisconsin, an unnerving development after that state’s Supreme Court abruptly overturned a stay-at-home order in May. New cases are consistently high in Minnesota, particularly around the Twin Cities, where health officials have warned that escalating protests could increase the infection risk.
Jan Malcolm, Minnesota’s health commissioner, said in a statement that “we are one of the communities most vulnerable to rapid increases in the spread of the virus, given where we are in the course of the epidemic.”Jan Malcolm, Minnesota’s health commissioner, said in a statement that “we are one of the communities most vulnerable to rapid increases in the spread of the virus, given where we are in the course of the epidemic.”
But in the Northeast, the outlook has seesawed in the other direction. A glimpse of that region on the same day seemed hopeful.But in the Northeast, the outlook has seesawed in the other direction. A glimpse of that region on the same day seemed hopeful.
In New Jersey and Connecticut, case numbers have plunged considerably in recent days. In New York, where more than 1,000 deaths were announced on some of the worst April days, that number is now often below 100. And in Massachusetts, Gov. Charlie Baker has given houses of worship and many businesses permission to open again. In New York, the center of the outbreak in the United States, more than 1,000 deaths were announced on some of the worst April days. But that number is now often below 100, and every region in the state has started to reopen except New York City, which is expected to begin doing so on June 8.
In New Jersey and Connecticut, case numbers have plunged considerably in recent days. And in Massachusetts, Gov. Charlie Baker has given houses of worship and many businesses permission to open again.
At the peak of the epidemic, Suffolk County, Mass., which includes Boston, was reporting more than 300 confirmed coronavirus cases and 25 deaths on many days. On Wednesday, the county added 63 cases and six deaths, a vast improvement from weeks ago.At the peak of the epidemic, Suffolk County, Mass., which includes Boston, was reporting more than 300 confirmed coronavirus cases and 25 deaths on many days. On Wednesday, the county added 63 cases and six deaths, a vast improvement from weeks ago.
The shift has left Bostonians wondering whether this means they are ready to reopen.The shift has left Bostonians wondering whether this means they are ready to reopen.
That question was vexing Ray Hammond and Gloria White-Hammond, a husband and wife who are co-pastors of the Bethel A.M.E. Church in Jamaica Plain, a neighborhood in Boston.That question was vexing Ray Hammond and Gloria White-Hammond, a husband and wife who are co-pastors of the Bethel A.M.E. Church in Jamaica Plain, a neighborhood in Boston.
Mr. Baker had already announced that churches could begin holding in-person services again, with restrictions. But the pastors — who are also physicians — were more surprised than elated by the decision.Mr. Baker had already announced that churches could begin holding in-person services again, with restrictions. But the pastors — who are also physicians — were more surprised than elated by the decision.
They worried about the potential of church services to be super-spreading events. They had also watched the pandemic take a particularly devastating toll on black and Hispanic communities, and their largely black congregation has had several dozen members fall ill.They worried about the potential of church services to be super-spreading events. They had also watched the pandemic take a particularly devastating toll on black and Hispanic communities, and their largely black congregation has had several dozen members fall ill.
Could they reopen safely? Or would they be putting their congregants and everyone in the community at risk?Could they reopen safely? Or would they be putting their congregants and everyone in the community at risk?
On Wednesday, they said they had decided not to go ahead with reopening.On Wednesday, they said they had decided not to go ahead with reopening.
“I just don’t think we have enough information to make that decision in a way that I would feel — I’m saying personally, I can’t make that decision for other people — that I would feel meets the criteria for love of neighbor,” Pastor Hammond said.“I just don’t think we have enough information to make that decision in a way that I would feel — I’m saying personally, I can’t make that decision for other people — that I would feel meets the criteria for love of neighbor,” Pastor Hammond said.
His congregants have been uniformly supportive of the decision to move slowly. Some people said they might be ready this summer, or in the fall, or perhaps early next year.His congregants have been uniformly supportive of the decision to move slowly. Some people said they might be ready this summer, or in the fall, or perhaps early next year.
Still others have told him they plan to attend church virtually until there is a vaccine.
“Nary a soul has said, ‘We’ve got to get back right away,’” he said.
Updated June 1, 2020Updated June 1, 2020
Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.
States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
More than 40 million people — the equivalent of 1 in 4 U.S. workers — have filed for unemployment benefits since the pandemic took hold. One in five who were working in February reported losing a job or being furloughed in March or the beginning of April, data from a Federal Reserve survey released on May 14 showed, and that pain was highly concentrated among low earners. Fully 39 percent of former workers living in a household earning $40,000 or less lost work, compared with 13 percent in those making more than $100,000, a Fed official said.More than 40 million people — the equivalent of 1 in 4 U.S. workers — have filed for unemployment benefits since the pandemic took hold. One in five who were working in February reported losing a job or being furloughed in March or the beginning of April, data from a Federal Reserve survey released on May 14 showed, and that pain was highly concentrated among low earners. Fully 39 percent of former workers living in a household earning $40,000 or less lost work, compared with 13 percent in those making more than $100,000, a Fed official said.
Yes, but make sure you keep six feet of distance between you and people who don’t live in your home. Even if you just hang out in a park, rather than go for a jog or a walk, getting some fresh air, and hopefully sunshine, is a good idea.Yes, but make sure you keep six feet of distance between you and people who don’t live in your home. Even if you just hang out in a park, rather than go for a jog or a walk, getting some fresh air, and hopefully sunshine, is a good idea.
Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.
The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing.The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing.
If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested.If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested.
Charity Navigator, which evaluates charities using a numbers-based system, has a running list of nonprofits working in communities affected by the outbreak. You can give blood through the American Red Cross, and World Central Kitchen has stepped in to distribute meals in major cities.Charity Navigator, which evaluates charities using a numbers-based system, has a running list of nonprofits working in communities affected by the outbreak. You can give blood through the American Red Cross, and World Central Kitchen has stepped in to distribute meals in major cities.
Still others have told him they plan to attend church virtually until there is a vaccine.
“Nary a soul has said, ‘We’ve got to get back right away,’” he said.
In the South, many states have been open for weeks, and officials there are carefully monitoring the effects of lifting restrictions.In the South, many states have been open for weeks, and officials there are carefully monitoring the effects of lifting restrictions.
In some communities where the virus appeared to have been under control only weeks ago, there are now small but fierce flare-ups. Rural pockets of Alabama, Louisiana and Mississippi are struggling to control growing outbreaks.In some communities where the virus appeared to have been under control only weeks ago, there are now small but fierce flare-ups. Rural pockets of Alabama, Louisiana and Mississippi are struggling to control growing outbreaks.
Arkansas seemed to be on the rebound when May began. But as the month wore on, any glimmer of recovery faded. By last week, daily reports of new cases had spiked to near the highest levels since the epidemic began. On Wednesday, the state added 97 new cases, down from previous days. The progress did not last: More than 230 cases were announced both Thursday and Friday.Arkansas seemed to be on the rebound when May began. But as the month wore on, any glimmer of recovery faded. By last week, daily reports of new cases had spiked to near the highest levels since the epidemic began. On Wednesday, the state added 97 new cases, down from previous days. The progress did not last: More than 230 cases were announced both Thursday and Friday.
Many of those new cases can be attributed to outbreaks in poultry processing facilities, where employees work in close quarters with little opportunity for social distancing.Many of those new cases can be attributed to outbreaks in poultry processing facilities, where employees work in close quarters with little opportunity for social distancing.
In rural Yell County, the site of two poultry processing outbreaks, cases grew tenfold over two weeks. In more densely populated northwest Arkansas, home to the headquarters of Walmart and Tyson, the number of known cases has more than tripled since the start of May, fueled in part by outbreaks at poultry plants.In rural Yell County, the site of two poultry processing outbreaks, cases grew tenfold over two weeks. In more densely populated northwest Arkansas, home to the headquarters of Walmart and Tyson, the number of known cases has more than tripled since the start of May, fueled in part by outbreaks at poultry plants.
Magaly Licolli, a cofounder of Venceremos, an advocacy group for Arkansas poultry workers, said employees at the plants had watched nervously as food processing facilities in other states reported outbreaks. Then their own co-workers, many of them immigrants, started falling ill. Magaly Licolli, a co-founder of Venceremos, an advocacy group for Arkansas poultry workers, said employees at the plants had watched nervously as food processing facilities in other states reported outbreaks. Then their own co-workers, many of them immigrants, started falling ill.
“They are so terrified of going to work because they feel that they are being led to slaughter,” Ms. Licolli said. She added: “It’s a very dark time for many of them. Many of them have pre-existing conditions.”“They are so terrified of going to work because they feel that they are being led to slaughter,” Ms. Licolli said. She added: “It’s a very dark time for many of them. Many of them have pre-existing conditions.”
Given what happened at meatpacking plants elsewhere, Ms. Licolli said the new spikes in northwest Arkansas seemed almost inevitable. On Friday, state officials reported cases at a third poultry plant in the region.Given what happened at meatpacking plants elsewhere, Ms. Licolli said the new spikes in northwest Arkansas seemed almost inevitable. On Friday, state officials reported cases at a third poultry plant in the region.
“We knew that we were going to get to this point,” she said.“We knew that we were going to get to this point,” she said.
That lament was true across much of the South. By week’s end, along the virus’s uneven path, cases were also rising in Virginia, North Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi and South Carolina.That lament was true across much of the South. By week’s end, along the virus’s uneven path, cases were also rising in Virginia, North Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi and South Carolina.
Julie Bosman reported from Chicago and Mitch Smith from Overland Park, Kan. Kate Taylor contributed reporting from Cambridge, Mass.Julie Bosman reported from Chicago and Mitch Smith from Overland Park, Kan. Kate Taylor contributed reporting from Cambridge, Mass.