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| Pandemic Threatens to Upend a Thriving Real Estate Model | Pandemic Threatens to Upend a Thriving Real Estate Model |
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| “Is water wet?” Will Gilson is blunt when asked whether it’s particularly challenging to open three restaurants in the middle of a pandemic. | “Is water wet?” Will Gilson is blunt when asked whether it’s particularly challenging to open three restaurants in the middle of a pandemic. |
| But the restaurateur is also optimistic because they are slated to open this fall in Cambridge Crossing, a 4.5 million-square-foot mixed-use development near Boston. He sees the complex’s density and location as boons for his business, come what may. | But the restaurateur is also optimistic because they are slated to open this fall in Cambridge Crossing, a 4.5 million-square-foot mixed-use development near Boston. He sees the complex’s density and location as boons for his business, come what may. |
| Mixed-use projects have been a hallmark of the country’s urban renaissance over the past couple of decades. They are often thriving complexes built with an ecosystem of residences, offices, plazas, hotels, shops and restaurants. Developers like them for the scope, and business owners like them for the round-the-clock density of people. | Mixed-use projects have been a hallmark of the country’s urban renaissance over the past couple of decades. They are often thriving complexes built with an ecosystem of residences, offices, plazas, hotels, shops and restaurants. Developers like them for the scope, and business owners like them for the round-the-clock density of people. |
| In some cases, these projects have transformed whole areas: The 28-acre Hudson Yards over an old train yard brought new life to an underused corner of Manhattan, and the 56-acre Water Street Tampa in Florida will connect the city’s downtown with its waterfront. In general, they have helped define the live-work-play ethos that many younger professionals seek in cities. | In some cases, these projects have transformed whole areas: The 28-acre Hudson Yards over an old train yard brought new life to an underused corner of Manhattan, and the 56-acre Water Street Tampa in Florida will connect the city’s downtown with its waterfront. In general, they have helped define the live-work-play ethos that many younger professionals seek in cities. |
| But the coronavirus threatens to upend the allure of retail and restaurants in these developments. Safety concerns and a changing patchwork of state and local virus-related regulations have led developers to rethink the layouts and designs of such areas. Ideas coming to the fore could be around for years, or they could start to fade away at the first sign of a coronavirus vaccine. | But the coronavirus threatens to upend the allure of retail and restaurants in these developments. Safety concerns and a changing patchwork of state and local virus-related regulations have led developers to rethink the layouts and designs of such areas. Ideas coming to the fore could be around for years, or they could start to fade away at the first sign of a coronavirus vaccine. |
| Starting a mixed-use project can be challenging without all the pieces in place, and the uncertainty over how to proceed has tied developers’ hands. They cannot pitch the office or residential space until they line up the retail and restaurants. And because some businesses are having difficulty paying rent in the pandemic, developers are being forced to look at other ways to collect payment, including a model that bases rent solely on sales, insulating the tenant more from downturns. | Starting a mixed-use project can be challenging without all the pieces in place, and the uncertainty over how to proceed has tied developers’ hands. They cannot pitch the office or residential space until they line up the retail and restaurants. And because some businesses are having difficulty paying rent in the pandemic, developers are being forced to look at other ways to collect payment, including a model that bases rent solely on sales, insulating the tenant more from downturns. |
| But developers agree that safety measures are necessary if projects are to retain the shops and restaurants on the lower levels that help draw people to the offices, hotels and residences up top. | But developers agree that safety measures are necessary if projects are to retain the shops and restaurants on the lower levels that help draw people to the offices, hotels and residences up top. |
| The return to normal will not come simply by limiting crowd sizes, which will not be possible for shops and restaurants that are already surviving on a slim profit, said Les Hiscoe, chief executive of Shawmut Design and Construction, a Boston firm that works with retailers and restaurateurs. | The return to normal will not come simply by limiting crowd sizes, which will not be possible for shops and restaurants that are already surviving on a slim profit, said Les Hiscoe, chief executive of Shawmut Design and Construction, a Boston firm that works with retailers and restaurateurs. |
| To address that challenge, developers and designers are mulling interior and exterior changes that could drastically repurpose space, an overhaul that will require both customers and merchants to readjust their experiences and expectations. For example, a lot of space once used for sales or dining will now be taken over by behind-the-scenes work as vendors continue to shift to more takeout and pickup service. | To address that challenge, developers and designers are mulling interior and exterior changes that could drastically repurpose space, an overhaul that will require both customers and merchants to readjust their experiences and expectations. For example, a lot of space once used for sales or dining will now be taken over by behind-the-scenes work as vendors continue to shift to more takeout and pickup service. |
| “What we’ve seen in the past with our clients is they really want to maximize the front of the house,” said Lauren Chipman, chief executive of Chipman Design Architecture in Des Plaines, Ill. “That is really going to have to change. I think what we’re going to see is some of the front-of-house recaptured for operations.” | “What we’ve seen in the past with our clients is they really want to maximize the front of the house,” said Lauren Chipman, chief executive of Chipman Design Architecture in Des Plaines, Ill. “That is really going to have to change. I think what we’re going to see is some of the front-of-house recaptured for operations.” |
| Some restaurants in mixed-use developments might embrace the ghost kitchen concept and switch fully to takeout and delivery. | Some restaurants in mixed-use developments might embrace the ghost kitchen concept and switch fully to takeout and delivery. |
| Less drastically, operating safely might focus on controlling the flow of the customers who do go inside. Architects and contractors say they have received requests from clients for graphics and other signage to guide people through stores and restaurants so they do not bunch up or run into one another. | Less drastically, operating safely might focus on controlling the flow of the customers who do go inside. Architects and contractors say they have received requests from clients for graphics and other signage to guide people through stores and restaurants so they do not bunch up or run into one another. |
| There is also growing demand for motion-enabled technology in a range of areas, including toilets and sinks in restrooms, doors, checkout counters, clothing racks and elevators. | There is also growing demand for motion-enabled technology in a range of areas, including toilets and sinks in restrooms, doors, checkout counters, clothing racks and elevators. |
| Many mixed-use projects already have the infrastructure in place for such a shift away from touch, said Webber Hudson, an executive vice president at the Related Companies, the lead developer on Hudson Yards. Air filtration systems originally intended for heating, cooling and odor control can be used to fight pathogens. | Many mixed-use projects already have the infrastructure in place for such a shift away from touch, said Webber Hudson, an executive vice president at the Related Companies, the lead developer on Hudson Yards. Air filtration systems originally intended for heating, cooling and odor control can be used to fight pathogens. |
| Hand sanitizer will be omnipresent, merchandise will be spaced farther apart, and material that is deemed as possible short-term hosts for the coronavirus, such as marketing placards and bric-a-brac sometimes found at checkout, will be gone. | Hand sanitizer will be omnipresent, merchandise will be spaced farther apart, and material that is deemed as possible short-term hosts for the coronavirus, such as marketing placards and bric-a-brac sometimes found at checkout, will be gone. |
| But Mr. Hiscoe warned that the demand for these technologies and materials could lead to a supply shortage. “It’s going to come down to a competition of who is the cleanest and who gives the consumer the most confidence to shop there based on the best mitigation strategies,” he said. | But Mr. Hiscoe warned that the demand for these technologies and materials could lead to a supply shortage. “It’s going to come down to a competition of who is the cleanest and who gives the consumer the most confidence to shop there based on the best mitigation strategies,” he said. |
| Updated July 7, 2020 | |
| The coronavirus can stay aloft for hours in tiny droplets in stagnant air, infecting people as they inhale, mounting scientific evidence suggests. This risk is highest in crowded indoor spaces with poor ventilation, and may help explain super-spreading events reported in meatpacking plants, churches and restaurants. It’s unclear how often the virus is spread via these tiny droplets, or aerosols, compared with larger droplets that are expelled when a sick person coughs or sneezes, or transmitted through contact with contaminated surfaces, said Linsey Marr, an aerosol expert at Virginia Tech. Aerosols are released even when a person without symptoms exhales, talks or sings, according to Dr. Marr and more than 200 other experts, who have outlined the evidence in an open letter to the World Health Organization. | |
| Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. | Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. |
| Scientists around the country have tried to identify everyday materials that do a good job of filtering microscopic particles. In recent tests, HEPA furnace filters scored high, as did vacuum cleaner bags, fabric similar to flannel pajamas and those of 600-count pillowcases. Other materials tested included layered coffee filters and scarves and bandannas. These scored lower, but still captured a small percentage of particles. | Scientists around the country have tried to identify everyday materials that do a good job of filtering microscopic particles. In recent tests, HEPA furnace filters scored high, as did vacuum cleaner bags, fabric similar to flannel pajamas and those of 600-count pillowcases. Other materials tested included layered coffee filters and scarves and bandannas. These scored lower, but still captured a small percentage of particles. |
| A commentary published this month on the website of the British Journal of Sports Medicine points out that covering your face during exercise “comes with issues of potential breathing restriction and discomfort” and requires “balancing benefits versus possible adverse events.” Masks do alter exercise, says Cedric X. Bryant, the president and chief science officer of the American Council on Exercise, a nonprofit organization that funds exercise research and certifies fitness professionals. “In my personal experience,” he says, “heart rates are higher at the same relative intensity when you wear a mask.” Some people also could experience lightheadedness during familiar workouts while masked, says Len Kravitz, a professor of exercise science at the University of New Mexico. | A commentary published this month on the website of the British Journal of Sports Medicine points out that covering your face during exercise “comes with issues of potential breathing restriction and discomfort” and requires “balancing benefits versus possible adverse events.” Masks do alter exercise, says Cedric X. Bryant, the president and chief science officer of the American Council on Exercise, a nonprofit organization that funds exercise research and certifies fitness professionals. “In my personal experience,” he says, “heart rates are higher at the same relative intensity when you wear a mask.” Some people also could experience lightheadedness during familiar workouts while masked, says Len Kravitz, a professor of exercise science at the University of New Mexico. |
| The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth. | The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth. |
| The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave. | The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave. |
| So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. | So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. |
| Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. | Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. |
| A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. | A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. |
| If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) | If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) |
| If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. | If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. |
| Then there are the changes that will be “invented on the fly,” including ones related to modular construction, pop-up stores, ghost kitchens and different ways of recirculating air, said Duncan Paterson, a Los Angeles-based principal at the architecture firm Gensler. | Then there are the changes that will be “invented on the fly,” including ones related to modular construction, pop-up stores, ghost kitchens and different ways of recirculating air, said Duncan Paterson, a Los Angeles-based principal at the architecture firm Gensler. |
| Such safety features might have staying power, too. | Such safety features might have staying power, too. |
| The challenges facing retailers and restaurateurs brought to mind the sneeze guard, said Daniel L. Tessarolo, chief operating officer of Chipman Design Architecture. The plastic dividers that now ubiquitously cover buffets and salad bars grew out of a single chain in Ohio and Pennsylvania when the country’s growing ranks of self-service restaurants were trying to protect food from customers’ germs, according to Smithsonian Magazine. | The challenges facing retailers and restaurateurs brought to mind the sneeze guard, said Daniel L. Tessarolo, chief operating officer of Chipman Design Architecture. The plastic dividers that now ubiquitously cover buffets and salad bars grew out of a single chain in Ohio and Pennsylvania when the country’s growing ranks of self-service restaurants were trying to protect food from customers’ germs, according to Smithsonian Magazine. |
| Plans to reopen businesses could also prove a test of the endurance of the mixed-use model in the United States, which was later in embracing such complexes than cities in Europe and Asia, Mr. Paterson said. But with their complementary parts and urban locations, mixed-use projects may be strongly positioned. | Plans to reopen businesses could also prove a test of the endurance of the mixed-use model in the United States, which was later in embracing such complexes than cities in Europe and Asia, Mr. Paterson said. But with their complementary parts and urban locations, mixed-use projects may be strongly positioned. |
| Mr. Gilson said his restaurants in Cambridge Crossing could survive lost foot traffic from a reduced office population by relying on condo and apartment dwellers. | Mr. Gilson said his restaurants in Cambridge Crossing could survive lost foot traffic from a reduced office population by relying on condo and apartment dwellers. |
| “Thankfully, with mixed use, you can be adaptable even if the work force is decreased,” he said, adding that even if remote working remains popular, the office tenants are not going away entirely. | “Thankfully, with mixed use, you can be adaptable even if the work force is decreased,” he said, adding that even if remote working remains popular, the office tenants are not going away entirely. |
| The stakes are high for business owners such as Mr. Gilson. The pandemic has spurred record job losses in retail and food service industries. Nearly 1.9 million Americans filed new claims for state unemployment benefits in the week that ended May 30, the Labor Department reported Thursday; the overall number collecting state benefits increased to a seasonally adjusted 21.5 million. | The stakes are high for business owners such as Mr. Gilson. The pandemic has spurred record job losses in retail and food service industries. Nearly 1.9 million Americans filed new claims for state unemployment benefits in the week that ended May 30, the Labor Department reported Thursday; the overall number collecting state benefits increased to a seasonally adjusted 21.5 million. |
| So it’s not unusual for developers to promote the retailers and restaurateurs they have leased space to ahead of an opening, and even the ones they might land, because those tenants help attract residents and other businesses. | So it’s not unusual for developers to promote the retailers and restaurateurs they have leased space to ahead of an opening, and even the ones they might land, because those tenants help attract residents and other businesses. |
| The plan for the redevelopment of the former Boston Globe headquarters, for instance, has promoted the possibility of a brewery and beer garden. The Plaza at Coral Gables, a housing-office-retail hybrid in the Miami area, includes a 30,000-square-foot entertainment hub with bowling lanes and bocce courts. And Fifth & Broadway, one of the largest recent developments in Nashville, is expected to feature an Apple store. | The plan for the redevelopment of the former Boston Globe headquarters, for instance, has promoted the possibility of a brewery and beer garden. The Plaza at Coral Gables, a housing-office-retail hybrid in the Miami area, includes a 30,000-square-foot entertainment hub with bowling lanes and bocce courts. And Fifth & Broadway, one of the largest recent developments in Nashville, is expected to feature an Apple store. |
| Developers and owners then need to find a way to retain such attractions as pandemic-related restrictions ease, said Phil Colicchio, an executive managing director at the brokerage firm Cushman & Wakefield who specializes in advising independent restaurants. | Developers and owners then need to find a way to retain such attractions as pandemic-related restrictions ease, said Phil Colicchio, an executive managing director at the brokerage firm Cushman & Wakefield who specializes in advising independent restaurants. |
| “Because the alternative is nothing,” he said. “The alternative is a ghost town.” | “Because the alternative is nothing,” he said. “The alternative is a ghost town.” |