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| Retail Sales Rebound in May, but the Future Looks Dim | Retail Sales Rebound in May, but the Future Looks Dim |
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| National retail sales rebounded in May as thousands of stores and restaurants reopened after lockdowns were lifted and federal stimulus checks and tax refunds fueled a burst of spending. But many of the stores and restaurants that welcomed back customers last month did so with fewer employees, reflecting a permanently altered retail landscape and an ominous sign for the economy as it tries to recover from the coronavirus pandemic. | National retail sales rebounded in May as thousands of stores and restaurants reopened after lockdowns were lifted and federal stimulus checks and tax refunds fueled a burst of spending. But many of the stores and restaurants that welcomed back customers last month did so with fewer employees, reflecting a permanently altered retail landscape and an ominous sign for the economy as it tries to recover from the coronavirus pandemic. |
| Total sales, which include purchases in stores and online as well as money spent at bars and restaurants, rose 17.7 percent in May from the previous month, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. That followed a 14.7 percent drop in April, the largest monthly decline in nearly three decades of record-keeping, and an 8.3 percent decline in March. | Total sales, which include purchases in stores and online as well as money spent at bars and restaurants, rose 17.7 percent in May from the previous month, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. That followed a 14.7 percent drop in April, the largest monthly decline in nearly three decades of record-keeping, and an 8.3 percent decline in March. |
| Economists had expected a bounce back from April, when widespread business closures drove retail sales to their lowest level since 2013. | Economists had expected a bounce back from April, when widespread business closures drove retail sales to their lowest level since 2013. |
| The rise in May is the largest monthly surge on record — drawing a celebratory Twitter post from President Trump — but the retail industry is nowhere near back to normal. Overall sales were still down 8 percent from February. Some categories, like clothing, were down as much as 63 percent from a year ago. | The rise in May is the largest monthly surge on record — drawing a celebratory Twitter post from President Trump — but the retail industry is nowhere near back to normal. Overall sales were still down 8 percent from February. Some categories, like clothing, were down as much as 63 percent from a year ago. |
| After more than a month of quarantine, May brought a tentative restart of brick-and-mortar retail across most of the country, with major chains like Macy’s and Gap reopening hundreds of stores. Some restaurants that had either closed or shifted their business to delivery and curbside pickup also reopened for in-person dining. | After more than a month of quarantine, May brought a tentative restart of brick-and-mortar retail across most of the country, with major chains like Macy’s and Gap reopening hundreds of stores. Some restaurants that had either closed or shifted their business to delivery and curbside pickup also reopened for in-person dining. |
| Driving some of the sales gains was warm weather, a sense of relief after weeks cooped up at home and optimism from some that the worst of the pandemic could be over. But they were also lifted by stimulus money — totaling $1,200 per recipient, plus $500 per child — that will run out in the coming months, with no indications that Congress intends to pass another round of assistance. | Driving some of the sales gains was warm weather, a sense of relief after weeks cooped up at home and optimism from some that the worst of the pandemic could be over. But they were also lifted by stimulus money — totaling $1,200 per recipient, plus $500 per child — that will run out in the coming months, with no indications that Congress intends to pass another round of assistance. |
| “I think a lot of it is lockdown fatigue,” said Beth Ann Bovino, chief U.S. economist at S&P Global. “I would caution not to be fooled by this large gain. We still have a long way to go in repairing the economy.” | “I think a lot of it is lockdown fatigue,” said Beth Ann Bovino, chief U.S. economist at S&P Global. “I would caution not to be fooled by this large gain. We still have a long way to go in repairing the economy.” |
| Sales at clothing and clothing accessories stores, which were hit especially hard by the closures, rose 188 percent in May, while spending at furniture and home furnishing stores jumped 90 percent. Still, clothing sales were down 63 percent from a year earlier, while furniture was down 22 percent. | Sales at clothing and clothing accessories stores, which were hit especially hard by the closures, rose 188 percent in May, while spending at furniture and home furnishing stores jumped 90 percent. Still, clothing sales were down 63 percent from a year earlier, while furniture was down 22 percent. |
| No matter how fleeting, the rebound in May was a welcome boost, especially for small businesses like the Bookstore of Gloucester, an independent bookseller in Gloucester, Mass. | No matter how fleeting, the rebound in May was a welcome boost, especially for small businesses like the Bookstore of Gloucester, an independent bookseller in Gloucester, Mass. |
| The store carries a selection of best sellers, books on race and books on the city’s maritime history. Even though it was selling only through curbside pickup and mailing out orders, sales were not much lower than in May last year. | The store carries a selection of best sellers, books on race and books on the city’s maritime history. Even though it was selling only through curbside pickup and mailing out orders, sales were not much lower than in May last year. |
| “We were pleasantly surprised,” said Nicole Dahlmer, an employee. | “We were pleasantly surprised,” said Nicole Dahlmer, an employee. |
| She attributed the relatively robust sales to a loyal customer base and to longer waits at large booksellers like Amazon during the pandemic. | She attributed the relatively robust sales to a loyal customer base and to longer waits at large booksellers like Amazon during the pandemic. |
| “The real test is if tourism holds up this summer,” said Ms. Dahlmer, who usually is paid to work in the store but has been working on a volunteer basis to help out the owner during the pandemic. She said she expected to return to a paid position soon. | “The real test is if tourism holds up this summer,” said Ms. Dahlmer, who usually is paid to work in the store but has been working on a volunteer basis to help out the owner during the pandemic. She said she expected to return to a paid position soon. |
| Aneta Markowska, the chief financial economist for the investment bank Jefferies, said that while she had anticipated a jump in retail sales in May, it was off “a pretty low hurdle.” The bigger question was the sustainability of any improvement, since spending was bolstered by tax refunds and government stimulus efforts. | Aneta Markowska, the chief financial economist for the investment bank Jefferies, said that while she had anticipated a jump in retail sales in May, it was off “a pretty low hurdle.” The bigger question was the sustainability of any improvement, since spending was bolstered by tax refunds and government stimulus efforts. |
| “By the time we get into July, those tax refunds will probably be largely spent,” Ms. Markowska said, “and then you’re back to, hey, what’s the underlying employment growth? Because that’s going to have to be the key driver of spending going forward.” | “By the time we get into July, those tax refunds will probably be largely spent,” Ms. Markowska said, “and then you’re back to, hey, what’s the underlying employment growth? Because that’s going to have to be the key driver of spending going forward.” |
| The positive numbers in May also mask some of the intense strain on underlying businesses. | The positive numbers in May also mask some of the intense strain on underlying businesses. |
| While his White Electric Coffee shop in Providence, R.I., was closed, Tom Toupin took out a loan to keep paying his employees. He also sold a special “Stay at Home” brew online, donating 20 percent of the sales to the state’s Covid-19 relief fund. | While his White Electric Coffee shop in Providence, R.I., was closed, Tom Toupin took out a loan to keep paying his employees. He also sold a special “Stay at Home” brew online, donating 20 percent of the sales to the state’s Covid-19 relief fund. |
| In preparing to reopen this month, Mr. Toupin spent about $1,000 on a device that enables contactless payments and reconfigured the front counter and register to create more distance between employees and customers. | In preparing to reopen this month, Mr. Toupin spent about $1,000 on a device that enables contactless payments and reconfigured the front counter and register to create more distance between employees and customers. |
| But in the first few days after reopening, the shop had about 60 customers a day, down from a typical 350. Mr. Toupin has had to waste food because he was not sure how many customers would come, he said. Five people are working in the shop now, down from the usual team of a dozen. | But in the first few days after reopening, the shop had about 60 customers a day, down from a typical 350. Mr. Toupin has had to waste food because he was not sure how many customers would come, he said. Five people are working in the shop now, down from the usual team of a dozen. |
| Updated June 12, 2020 | Updated June 12, 2020 |
| So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. | So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. |
| Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. | Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. |
| A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. | A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. |
| The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April. | The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April. |
| Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission. | Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission. |
| Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home. | Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home. |
| States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people. | States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people. |
| Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. | Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. |
| If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) | If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) |
| Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications. | Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications. |
| The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing. | The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing. |
| If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. | If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. |
| If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested. | If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested. |
| “I was so excited to open up the shop again,” Mr. Toupin said. “I may have opened up sooner than I should have.” | |
| Major apparel chains and malls have been aggressively pushing to reopen as quickly as legally possible to recoup some of their losses. | Major apparel chains and malls have been aggressively pushing to reopen as quickly as legally possible to recoup some of their losses. |
| Some retailers have reported that their efforts are paying off. Kohl’s said last month that its reopened stores were about 50 percent to 60 percent as productive as they would typically be. Gap, which owns Banana Republic, Old Navy and Athleta, said this month that its reopened stores in North America were generating sales at nearly 70 percent of their performance last year. | Some retailers have reported that their efforts are paying off. Kohl’s said last month that its reopened stores were about 50 percent to 60 percent as productive as they would typically be. Gap, which owns Banana Republic, Old Navy and Athleta, said this month that its reopened stores in North America were generating sales at nearly 70 percent of their performance last year. |
| “There is some indication there is normal behavior out there,” said Jay Sole, a retail analyst at UBS, “where people want to go back to normal, they want to go have fun, get out of the house, and they’re buying the apparel they need to do that.” | “There is some indication there is normal behavior out there,” said Jay Sole, a retail analyst at UBS, “where people want to go back to normal, they want to go have fun, get out of the house, and they’re buying the apparel they need to do that.” |
| But at the same time, many shoppers are encountering an experience that’s very different from what they are accustomed to. There may be long lines outside stores because only a limited number of people are allowed inside at a time. Changing rooms are closed in many places, forcing shoppers to approximate sizes and inevitably generating more returns. For some, shopping is simply less fun and far more transactional in the pandemic era. | But at the same time, many shoppers are encountering an experience that’s very different from what they are accustomed to. There may be long lines outside stores because only a limited number of people are allowed inside at a time. Changing rooms are closed in many places, forcing shoppers to approximate sizes and inevitably generating more returns. For some, shopping is simply less fun and far more transactional in the pandemic era. |
| On Sunday, shoppers waited outside the J. Crew Factory in an outlet mall in Westbrook, Conn.; signs said that the store’s capacity was 10 people and that masks were required. A greeter pointed customers to a table holding hand sanitizer when they walked in, and fitting rooms were unavailable. The shopping bore little resemblance to the leisurely, enjoyable experience that malls typically promote on their websites and in ads. | On Sunday, shoppers waited outside the J. Crew Factory in an outlet mall in Westbrook, Conn.; signs said that the store’s capacity was 10 people and that masks were required. A greeter pointed customers to a table holding hand sanitizer when they walked in, and fitting rooms were unavailable. The shopping bore little resemblance to the leisurely, enjoyable experience that malls typically promote on their websites and in ads. |
| Still, outlet malls and other retailers in open-air spaces may be better off than indoor malls as Americans readjust to the new norms of shopping. Gap, for example, noted that it was seeing better results at Old Navy stores, which are often away from enclosed shopping malls, as customers were more confident in such locations and better able to take advantage of new services like curbside pickup. | Still, outlet malls and other retailers in open-air spaces may be better off than indoor malls as Americans readjust to the new norms of shopping. Gap, for example, noted that it was seeing better results at Old Navy stores, which are often away from enclosed shopping malls, as customers were more confident in such locations and better able to take advantage of new services like curbside pickup. |
| Enclosed malls “seem like the weakest channel out there now in terms of traffic,” Mr. Sole said. | Enclosed malls “seem like the weakest channel out there now in terms of traffic,” Mr. Sole said. |
| He said that while last month was better than expected for sellers of clothing and footwear, there was “a real wait-and-see attitude” about how back-to-school shopping might shape up in late July and early August and still concern about a potential second wave of the coronavirus. | He said that while last month was better than expected for sellers of clothing and footwear, there was “a real wait-and-see attitude” about how back-to-school shopping might shape up in late July and early August and still concern about a potential second wave of the coronavirus. |
| Retailers are “hoping for the best and preparing for the worst,” he said. | Retailers are “hoping for the best and preparing for the worst,” he said. |
| Ben Casselman contributed reporting. | Ben Casselman contributed reporting. |