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How The Times Is Counting Every Coronavirus Case in the Country How The Times Is Counting Every Coronavirus Case in the Country
(2 days later)
Times Insider explains who we are and what we do, and delivers behind-the-scenes insights into how our journalism comes together.Times Insider explains who we are and what we do, and delivers behind-the-scenes insights into how our journalism comes together.
Five days a week, Andrea Michelson signs on to a New York Times online chat: “I’m logging on, let me know where I can help!” During her eight-hour shifts, Ms. Michelson might help track coronavirus tolls in nursing homes across the United States, or verify cases reported in other publications. Ms. Michelson, a freelance journalist and a recent graduate of Northwestern University, is part of a team working on The New York Times’s coronavirus tracking project, which seeks to count every case of the virus and every death from Covid-19, the disease it causes, in the country.Five days a week, Andrea Michelson signs on to a New York Times online chat: “I’m logging on, let me know where I can help!” During her eight-hour shifts, Ms. Michelson might help track coronavirus tolls in nursing homes across the United States, or verify cases reported in other publications. Ms. Michelson, a freelance journalist and a recent graduate of Northwestern University, is part of a team working on The New York Times’s coronavirus tracking project, which seeks to count every case of the virus and every death from Covid-19, the disease it causes, in the country.
The data gathered by the team has been an engine for The Times’s coverage of the pandemic and has been used by medical researchers, federal offices, health care providers and nonprofit organizations.The data gathered by the team has been an engine for The Times’s coverage of the pandemic and has been used by medical researchers, federal offices, health care providers and nonprofit organizations.
Because The Times has collected coronavirus data using a consistent methodology since late January, it has one of the few complete data sets available.Because The Times has collected coronavirus data using a consistent methodology since late January, it has one of the few complete data sets available.
And it all started with a single spreadsheet.And it all started with a single spreadsheet.
As the first U.S. cases were being reported in late January, Mitch Smith, a national correspondent who covers the Midwest, and Monica Davey, the Chicago bureau chief, created a Google spreadsheet to keep track of confirmed cases across the country. At first, they documented cases in Washington State and on cruise ships.As the first U.S. cases were being reported in late January, Mitch Smith, a national correspondent who covers the Midwest, and Monica Davey, the Chicago bureau chief, created a Google spreadsheet to keep track of confirmed cases across the country. At first, they documented cases in Washington State and on cruise ships.
“Every case was a news event then,” Mr. Smith said.“Every case was a news event then,” Mr. Smith said.
In those early days, Mr. Smith or a team member would note an infected person’s age, gender and condition, in addition to a few other details, and add them to the sheet. A map on the Times website, built by the Graphics desk, pulled data from the sheet to show where outbreaks were appearing.In those early days, Mr. Smith or a team member would note an infected person’s age, gender and condition, in addition to a few other details, and add them to the sheet. A map on the Times website, built by the Graphics desk, pulled data from the sheet to show where outbreaks were appearing.
By late February, with outbreaks popping up across the country, the team realized that its database had no equivalent in the public sector. “We had a level of detail and a level of immediacy that the federal government wasn’t providing,” Mr. Smith recalled.By late February, with outbreaks popping up across the country, the team realized that its database had no equivalent in the public sector. “We had a level of detail and a level of immediacy that the federal government wasn’t providing,” Mr. Smith recalled.
The Times’s tracking project grew to keep up with an epidemic that was rapidly spreading. Reporters from the National desk, editors from the Graphics desk, developers from Interactive News and Technology, news assistants, researchers and freelancers were all pitching in. To date, more than one hundred people have contributed to an effort that is active 18 hours a day.The Times’s tracking project grew to keep up with an epidemic that was rapidly spreading. Reporters from the National desk, editors from the Graphics desk, developers from Interactive News and Technology, news assistants, researchers and freelancers were all pitching in. To date, more than one hundred people have contributed to an effort that is active 18 hours a day.
Manual collection of every new reported case became impossible. In April, more than 30,000 new cases were being reported daily. The spreadsheet eventually grew so big that it broke. At nearly 44,000 rows, it just stopped loading. The Times needed a way to programmatically gather the data and a database in which to store it.Manual collection of every new reported case became impossible. In April, more than 30,000 new cases were being reported daily. The spreadsheet eventually grew so big that it broke. At nearly 44,000 rows, it just stopped loading. The Times needed a way to programmatically gather the data and a database in which to store it.
By then, the developers had joined.By then, the developers had joined.
A team led by Tiff Fehr, a lead developer on the Interactive News desk, wrote custom software that pulled confirmed case and death numbers from the websites of 56 states and territories every few hours and saved them to a Times database.A team led by Tiff Fehr, a lead developer on the Interactive News desk, wrote custom software that pulled confirmed case and death numbers from the websites of 56 states and territories every few hours and saved them to a Times database.
While some states provide new case and death numbers broken down by county, other states provide only state-level numbers. To maintain consistency with how The Times has collected data since the beginning of the pandemic, the developers have had to write programs that pull data from county health department websites as well. The Times now collects data from 228 unique websites in the United States. So far, more than 18 million data samples have been collected.While some states provide new case and death numbers broken down by county, other states provide only state-level numbers. To maintain consistency with how The Times has collected data since the beginning of the pandemic, the developers have had to write programs that pull data from county health department websites as well. The Times now collects data from 228 unique websites in the United States. So far, more than 18 million data samples have been collected.
Manual collection still plays an important role. Some states specify where clusters form in nursing homes, prisons and meatpacking plants. But many states don’t. That’s when reporters pick up the phone.Manual collection still plays an important role. Some states specify where clusters form in nursing homes, prisons and meatpacking plants. But many states don’t. That’s when reporters pick up the phone.
The Times is also counting cases around the world, and tracking how overall mortality has changed in 24 countries, with the hope that this data might provide a more accurate account of the virus’s toll where cases are underreported. All told, the coronavirus data collected informs over 70 different maps and articles live on the Times website. They are updated about every four hours.The Times is also counting cases around the world, and tracking how overall mortality has changed in 24 countries, with the hope that this data might provide a more accurate account of the virus’s toll where cases are underreported. All told, the coronavirus data collected informs over 70 different maps and articles live on the Times website. They are updated about every four hours.
Updated June 30, 2020
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
Scientists around the country have tried to identify everyday materials that do a good job of filtering microscopic particles. In recent tests, HEPA furnace filters scored high, as did vacuum cleaner bags, fabric similar to flannel pajamas and those of 600-count pillowcases. Other materials tested included layered coffee filters and scarves and bandannas. These scored lower, but still captured a small percentage of particles.
A commentary published this month on the website of the British Journal of Sports Medicine points out that covering your face during exercise “comes with issues of potential breathing restriction and discomfort” and requires “balancing benefits versus possible adverse events.” Masks do alter exercise, says Cedric X. Bryant, the president and chief science officer of the American Council on Exercise, a nonprofit organization that funds exercise research and certifies fitness professionals. “In my personal experience,” he says, “heart rates are higher at the same relative intensity when you wear a mask.” Some people also could experience lightheadedness during familiar workouts while masked, says Len Kravitz, a professor of exercise science at the University of New Mexico.
The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth.
The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave.
So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement.
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.
The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
In some ways, the Times newsroom has been preparing every four years for a project of this size, said Wilson Andrews, a graphics editor who is overseeing some aspects of the data collection. Presidential election results are a similar undertaking: Times data journalists — and the programs they write — must process large amounts of data from both state and local governments, then synthesize it for readers.In some ways, the Times newsroom has been preparing every four years for a project of this size, said Wilson Andrews, a graphics editor who is overseeing some aspects of the data collection. Presidential election results are a similar undertaking: Times data journalists — and the programs they write — must process large amounts of data from both state and local governments, then synthesize it for readers.
“It’s like that — basically reporting an election that never ends,” Mr. Andrews said.“It’s like that — basically reporting an election that never ends,” Mr. Andrews said.
After growth of the epidemic slowed in May, The Times counted record levels of new daily cases in June. More than 125,000 Americans had died as of Sunday. (The Times is including confirmed and probable cases in this count.)After growth of the epidemic slowed in May, The Times counted record levels of new daily cases in June. More than 125,000 Americans had died as of Sunday. (The Times is including confirmed and probable cases in this count.)
The human toll can be hard to fathom. “All of these numbers represent people,” Mr. Andrews said. “And if I ever get a chance to step back and think about that, that’s incredibly devastating to comprehend.”The human toll can be hard to fathom. “All of these numbers represent people,” Mr. Andrews said. “And if I ever get a chance to step back and think about that, that’s incredibly devastating to comprehend.”
Prompted by requests from researchers, in late March, The Times publicly released the data set for anyone to use on GitHub, an online collaboration platform for developers. It has been used by public offices, economic groups and other news organizations including Kaiser Health News, the Google News Initiative and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.Prompted by requests from researchers, in late March, The Times publicly released the data set for anyone to use on GitHub, an online collaboration platform for developers. It has been used by public offices, economic groups and other news organizations including Kaiser Health News, the Google News Initiative and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
“There’s a hope that what we’re doing is a small piece of helping and providing at least an informational backbone to make decisions and maybe hopefully make advances against this or the next one,” Mr. Smith said. “And hopefully there’s never one.”“There’s a hope that what we’re doing is a small piece of helping and providing at least an informational backbone to make decisions and maybe hopefully make advances against this or the next one,” Mr. Smith said. “And hopefully there’s never one.”