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Coronavirus in Scotland: Virus transmission rate 'could be increasing' | Coronavirus in Scotland: Virus transmission rate 'could be increasing' |
(about 4 hours later) | |
Scotland's coronavirus infection rate could be increasing after a number of small clusters were detected. | Scotland's coronavirus infection rate could be increasing after a number of small clusters were detected. |
Health authorities in Orkney are dealing with five positive cases, while an Aberdeenshire primary school was closed as two staff members tested positive. | |
A cluster in Glasgow has been linked to secondary school pupils. | A cluster in Glasgow has been linked to secondary school pupils. |
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said the reproduction rate of the virus - the R number - could now be above one. | First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said the reproduction rate of the virus - the R number - could now be above one. |
Scientists believe an R number higher than one is dangerous as it means the number of cases can in theory spread exponentially. | Scientists believe an R number higher than one is dangerous as it means the number of cases can in theory spread exponentially. |
This is because each person with the virus would on average be infecting more than one other person. | This is because each person with the virus would on average be infecting more than one other person. |
Ms Sturgeon said that the upper estimate of the R number in Scotland "could have been as high as 1.3" last week. The figure was previously estimated to be between 0.6 and one. | Ms Sturgeon said that the upper estimate of the R number in Scotland "could have been as high as 1.3" last week. The figure was previously estimated to be between 0.6 and one. |
But the first minister stressed that there were only thought to be have been about 250 infectious people in Scotland last week. | But the first minister stressed that there were only thought to be have been about 250 infectious people in Scotland last week. |
She said this meant there was "not the same level of concern as you would have had back in May when prevalence was much higher". | She said this meant there was "not the same level of concern as you would have had back in May when prevalence was much higher". |
She added: "When the prevalence across the country is low the R number will be disproportionately affected by outbreaks on the scale of the one in Aberdeen. | She added: "When the prevalence across the country is low the R number will be disproportionately affected by outbreaks on the scale of the one in Aberdeen. |
"While we shouldn't be unduly alarmed, it is equally important that we're not in any way complacent. | "While we shouldn't be unduly alarmed, it is equally important that we're not in any way complacent. |
"Covid is still present and it will spread really rapidly if given an opportunity". | "Covid is still present and it will spread really rapidly if given an opportunity". |
House parties | House parties |
Ms Sturgeon said the data suggested there was a particular problem with house parties, and urged people to comply with the rules on visiting other people's homes. | Ms Sturgeon said the data suggested there was a particular problem with house parties, and urged people to comply with the rules on visiting other people's homes. |
A total of 47 new cases have been confirmed across the country since Wednesday. | A total of 47 new cases have been confirmed across the country since Wednesday. |
Ms Sturgeon said 26 of the new cases were in the Grampian health board area - although it was not clear how many are linked to the ongoing outbreak in Aberdeen which has so far seen 182 people test positive. | Ms Sturgeon said 26 of the new cases were in the Grampian health board area - although it was not clear how many are linked to the ongoing outbreak in Aberdeen which has so far seen 182 people test positive. |
Meanwhile, officials say the five people who tested positive in Orkney worked together on a fishing boat, before travelling to homes across the islands. | |
Possible links between the Orkney cluster and the outbreak in Aberdeen are being investigated. | Possible links between the Orkney cluster and the outbreak in Aberdeen are being investigated. |
A "household cluster" is being investigated in Peterhead after a member of staff at Peterhead Central primary tested positive. | A "household cluster" is being investigated in Peterhead after a member of staff at Peterhead Central primary tested positive. |
Later it was confirmed that a second employee had also been infected. | |
And a cluster in the Baillieston area of Glasgow now has 11 positive cases, including a number of pupils at Bannerman High School. | |
However, officials have stressed that none of the pupils has attended the school since it reopened on Wednesday, and all are self-isolating. | However, officials have stressed that none of the pupils has attended the school since it reopened on Wednesday, and all are self-isolating. |
The first minister said that these kind of clusters were "inevitable", and insisted that the test and protect system of contact tracing was working as intended. | The first minister said that these kind of clusters were "inevitable", and insisted that the test and protect system of contact tracing was working as intended. |