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Covid in Scotland: Where are the latest cases? Covid-19 in Scotland: Where are the latest cases?
(2 days later)
There have been 31,451 confirmed cases of Covid-19 in Scotland and 2,530 people have died following a positive test for the virus, according to Scottish government figures. There have been 32,906 confirmed cases of Covid-19 in Scotland and 2,530 people have died following a positive test for the virus, according to Scottish government figures.
This page is updated regularly and analyses the key figures for the coronavirus outbreak in Scotland.This page is updated regularly and analyses the key figures for the coronavirus outbreak in Scotland.
Figures updated at 14:00 on 3 October 2020. Figures updated at 12:30 on 5 October 2020.
Confirmed cases of Covid-19Confirmed cases of Covid-19
Over the past seven days there have been 4,219 cases detected following a test, with 764 confirmed on Saturday. Over the past seven days there have been 5,108 cases detected following a test, with 697 confirmed on Monday.
This next chart shows the number of daily confirmed cases after an NHS Scotland or UK government test over the course of the outbreak, along with a seven-day average.This next chart shows the number of daily confirmed cases after an NHS Scotland or UK government test over the course of the outbreak, along with a seven-day average.
The actual number of people infected since February will be far higher than the confirmed cases figure, as most people who had Covid-19 during the peak of the outbreak were not tested. The actual number of people infected since February will be far higher than the overall confirmed cases figure, as most people who had Covid-19 during the peak of the outbreak were not tested.
Scotland's "second wave" has seen a much bigger surge in the number of cases because many more people are being tested.
How has the share of positive test results changed?
During the height of the outbreak in April, the percentage of positive tests for Covid-19 in Scotland - also known as the "positivity rate" - reached almost 33%.
This figure fell throughout May and June - despite more tests being carried out. This is down to the prevalence of the virus decreasing and a change in testing strategy.
Early in the outbreak, most testing was done on admission to hospital, whereas now there is widespread community testing.
The World Health Organisation says one measure that can indicate whether an epidemic is under control is whether - with a comprehensive testing system - less than 5% of samples return a positive result for Covid-19 over two weeks.
The percentage of positive cases in Scotland went below 5% on 16 May and remained there for 126 days.
However, it began to increase steadily at the beginning of September and finally went over 5% on 19 September.
The Scottish government measures the positivity rate by dividing the number of new confirmed cases by the number of people newly tested each day.
Deaths from Covid-19
The first coronavirus death in Scotland was reported by NHS Lothian on 13 March and the number of daily deaths peaked on 15 April when 84 were reported.
Over the summer, Scotland went for a long period when there were no deaths following a positive test for Covid-19, but the rate of new deaths is rising again.
There are three ways to measure deaths from Covid-19.
The Scottish government's daily announcement counts deaths within 28 days of a positive test for Covid-19, whereas the National Records of Scotland (NRS) counts all death certificates that mention Covid-19, even if the person has not been tested for the virus.
The NRS also publishes monthly data on excess deaths in 2020, compared with a five-year average.
How many people are in hospital?
At its peak, the coronavirus outbreak created a huge load on Scotland's hospitals, with 1,520 Covid patients being treated across the country on 20 April.
The number of people in hospital is currently far lower than that, but has been rising steadily for a few weeks.
This chart shows the numbers of patients in Scottish hospitals since 11 September.
It is hard to compare the numbers in hospital now with figures over the summer as the Scottish government has recently changed the way it counts them.
From 11 September, only patients who test positive during their current stay in hospital, or in the two weeks before their admission, are included in the numbers.
They will also no longer be classified as Covid patients after 28 days in hospital or 28 days after their positive test, whichever is later.
This change led to a big drop in the number of people classified as Covid patients.
Intensive care
The number of hospital patients being treated in intensive care is also down from a peak of 208 in early April, but is on the rise again.
How many cases are there in my area?How many cases are there in my area?
The number of new cases in Scotland slowed drastically towards the end of May and into the summer, but began to rise again at the end of July.
There has been a significant increase in the number of new cases since the beginning of September.
This chart shows a breakdown by NHS health board of the last seven days of cases per 100,000 people.This chart shows a breakdown by NHS health board of the last seven days of cases per 100,000 people.
Over the course of the outbreak, the highest number of cumulative cases has been in NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde, reflecting the fact it is the most populous part of Scotland.Over the course of the outbreak, the highest number of cumulative cases has been in NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde, reflecting the fact it is the most populous part of Scotland.
It is also possible to measure the rate of new cases in local authorities, using Public Health Scotland data.It is also possible to measure the rate of new cases in local authorities, using Public Health Scotland data.
This chart shows the local authorities with the highest rates.This chart shows the local authorities with the highest rates.
Use this tool to find out how the pandemic has affected your area and how it compares with the national average:Use this tool to find out how the pandemic has affected your area and how it compares with the national average:
What is the estimated R number in Scotland?What is the estimated R number in Scotland?
The R number, or reproduction number, is a way of rating a disease's ability to spread. It is the average number of people that one infected person will pass the virus on to.The R number, or reproduction number, is a way of rating a disease's ability to spread. It is the average number of people that one infected person will pass the virus on to.
Scientists believe an R number higher than one is problematic as it means the number of cases can, in theory, spread exponentially.Scientists believe an R number higher than one is problematic as it means the number of cases can, in theory, spread exponentially.
The Scottish government has been monitoring the estimated R number in Scotland since the start of the outbreak.The Scottish government has been monitoring the estimated R number in Scotland since the start of the outbreak.
How has the share of positive test results changed?
The percentage of tests coming back positive has decreased since the height of the outbreak - despite more tests being carried out. This is down to the the prevalence of the virus in the community decreasing.
The World Health Organisation says one measure that can indicate whether an epidemic is under control is whether - with a comprehensive testing system - less than 5% of samples return a positive result for Covid-19 over two weeks.
The percentage of positive cases in Scotland went below 5% on 16 May and remained there for 126 days.
However, it began to increase steadily at the beginning of September and finally reached 5.3% on 19 September.
How many tests are being carried out?How many tests are being carried out?
Tests in Scotland are carried out either by NHS Scotland or by UK government labs, which include the regional testing centres, care home portal and home tests.Tests in Scotland are carried out either by NHS Scotland or by UK government labs, which include the regional testing centres, care home portal and home tests.
This chart shows the total number of tests each day.This chart shows the total number of tests each day.
Deaths from Covid-19
There are three ways to measure deaths from Covid-19.
The Scottish government's daily announcement counts deaths within 28 days of a positive test for Covid-19, whereas the National Records of Scotland (NRS) counts all death certificates that mention Covid-19, even if the person has not been tested for the virus.
The NRS also publishes monthly data on excess deaths, compared with a five-year average.
The first coronavirus death in Scotland was reported by NHS Lothian on 13 March.
New deaths following a positive test have been much less frequent since the end of June, but are still occurring.
How many people are in hospital?
At its peak, the coronavirus outbreak created a huge load on Scotland's hospitals, with 1,520 Covid patients being treated across the country on 20 April.
Numbers mainly declined until the end of July and then fluctuated between 240 and 275 for several weeks.
Similarly, the numbers in intensive care went down from a peak of 208 in early April and have been below 10 since 19 June.
From 11 September, the Scottish government changed the way it counted hospital and ICU patients.
Only patients who test positive during their current stay in hospital, or in the two weeks before their admission, are now included in the numbers.
They will also no longer be classified as Covid patients after 28 days in hospital or 28 days after their positive test, whichever is later.
This chart shows the number of patients in Scottish hospitals since 11 September, using this new measure.
And this one shows the number of those patients who are in intensive care.
Source for all graphs and figures: Scottish government's coronavirus in Scotland and its daily briefing.Source for all graphs and figures: Scottish government's coronavirus in Scotland and its daily briefing.