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UK coronavirus live news: Whitty calls for 'break in unnecessary links between households', including at work UK coronavirus live news: Whitty calls for 'break in unnecessary links between households', including at work
(32 minutes later)
England’s chief medical officer cites four key steps including reducing risk, self-isolating, and breaking links in workplaces and social environmentsEngland’s chief medical officer cites four key steps including reducing risk, self-isolating, and breaking links in workplaces and social environments
From the Welsh first minister Mark Drakeford
Jonathan Ashworth, the shadow health secretary, has issued this statement about the Whitty/Vallance briefing.
Here are the main points from the briefing by Prof Chris Whitty, the government’s chief medical adviser, and Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser. The words were strong, but the visuals were even more compelling - in particular the “graph of doom” (my phrase, not theirs) - which Vallance insisted was not a forecast, but which was clearly intended to jolt the public into recognising the case for fresh restrictions.
The UK will face more than 200 Covid deaths per day by mid November if the virus continues to spread as now, Vallance said. He said:
Vallance said the experience of what was happening in countries like Spain and France showed that increasing case numbers were leading to increasing deaths. (See 11.05am.) It was a simple message, he said:
Whitty said the recent increase in hospital Covid admissions in England showed the potential for an exponential increase in deaths if the virus was allowed to carry on spreading as now. (See 11.05am.) He said:
Whitty said the almost all parts of the country were at risk from rising rates of coronavirus. He said:
Whitty hinted that people might be encouraged again to work from home. Describing what could be done to combat the virus (see 11.19am), he said:
Vallance is talking now about vaccines.Vallance is talking now about vaccines.
He says several are in clinical tests.He says several are in clinical tests.
He says the UK has put itself in a good position for vaccine supply.He says the UK has put itself in a good position for vaccine supply.
It is possible that some vaccine could be available in small amounts later this year.It is possible that some vaccine could be available in small amounts later this year.
But it is more likely that a vaccine will be available early next year - although that is not guaranteed, he says.But it is more likely that a vaccine will be available early next year - although that is not guaranteed, he says.
And that’s it. The briefing is over. Whitty and Vallance did not take questions.And that’s it. The briefing is over. Whitty and Vallance did not take questions.
Whitty says a lot of people argue that individuals should be allowed to choose how much risk they take.Whitty says a lot of people argue that individuals should be allowed to choose how much risk they take.
But if you take a risk, you are also exposing others to risk, he says.But if you take a risk, you are also exposing others to risk, he says.
He says there are four things we can do.He says there are four things we can do.
First, as individuals, we can reduce our risk: hands, face, space, he says.First, as individuals, we can reduce our risk: hands, face, space, he says.
Second, we can isolate the virus. If people have symptoms, they must self-isolate. People who do this are helping to keep the virus out of circulation.Second, we can isolate the virus. If people have symptoms, they must self-isolate. People who do this are helping to keep the virus out of circulation.
Third, we must “break unnecessary links between households”. That means cutting contacts at work, and in social environments. But we cannot do this without significant downsides, he says.Third, we must “break unnecessary links between households”. That means cutting contacts at work, and in social environments. But we cannot do this without significant downsides, he says.
He says, if we do not change course, we will find ourselves in a very difficult situation.He says, if we do not change course, we will find ourselves in a very difficult situation.
Fourth, we can address the virus through science.Fourth, we can address the virus through science.
Whitty says Covid poses four sorts of risk.Whitty says Covid poses four sorts of risk.
The virus can kill people. And if it led to the NHS being overwhelmed, people would die, he says. But he says this did not happen in the spring.The virus can kill people. And if it led to the NHS being overwhelmed, people would die, he says. But he says this did not happen in the spring.
He says the virus can also have an indirect impact on health, because operations get postponed etc.He says the virus can also have an indirect impact on health, because operations get postponed etc.
And if it generated an economic downturn, that would have health impacts too, he says.And if it generated an economic downturn, that would have health impacts too, he says.
Whitty presents a chart showing how hospital admissions for Covid are increasing.Whitty presents a chart showing how hospital admissions for Covid are increasing.
This has only started in England, he says. But it means we have turned a corner. And the increase could be exponential. That means the numbers could eventually get very high.This has only started in England, he says. But it means we have turned a corner. And the increase could be exponential. That means the numbers could eventually get very high.
He says there is no evidence that the virus has become weaker.He says there is no evidence that the virus has become weaker.
Infections are not just remaining amongst the young. They are going up the age groups.Infections are not just remaining amongst the young. They are going up the age groups.
Seasonal flu normally kills round 7,000 people a year. But this virus is more virulent, he says.Seasonal flu normally kills round 7,000 people a year. But this virus is more virulent, he says.
He says treatments have got better. But that will not be enough to keep deaths at a minimal level, he says.He says treatments have got better. But that will not be enough to keep deaths at a minimal level, he says.
Whitty is speaking now.Whitty is speaking now.
He presents a graph showing the rate of spread of Covid (on the left) and the rate of increase (on the right). It is a threat everywhere, he says.He presents a graph showing the rate of spread of Covid (on the left) and the rate of increase (on the right). It is a threat everywhere, he says.
Vallance says around 8% of the population have had the virus, judging by antibody tests.Vallance says around 8% of the population have had the virus, judging by antibody tests.
But that means most people are not protected.But that means most people are not protected.
In London the figure could be a high as 17%. That would slow the spread, he says, but not stop it.In London the figure could be a high as 17%. That would slow the spread, he says, but not stop it.
Vallance presents the next slide.Vallance presents the next slide.
It shows new cases in England, by age group.It shows new cases in England, by age group.
In every age group cases are going up.In every age group cases are going up.
He says that is not just due to more testing. In every age group the proportion of people testing positive is going up.He says that is not just due to more testing. In every age group the proportion of people testing positive is going up.
And the ONS study suggests cases are going up. It suggests about 6,000 people a day are getting infected.And the ONS study suggests cases are going up. It suggests about 6,000 people a day are getting infected.
This is translating into an increase in hospitalisation, he says.This is translating into an increase in hospitalisation, he says.
Vallance presents the first slide.
It shows cases in Spain and France.
Increases in case numbers have led to an increase in hospitalisations. And deaths are increasing too, he says.
He says there is a simple message from the slide: as the disease spreads, there will be more hospitalisations and more deaths, he says.
Vallance starts the briefing.
He describes how the virus spread, and why keeping away from people is important.
Vallance says he wants to remind people how quickly things can change.Vallance says he wants to remind people how quickly things can change.
This slide is not a prediction, he says.This slide is not a prediction, he says.
But it shows what could happen.But it shows what could happen.
The epidemic is doubling rouhly every seven days.The epidemic is doubling rouhly every seven days.
If that continues unabated, by mid October you would have 50,000 new cases per day.If that continues unabated, by mid October you would have 50,000 new cases per day.
That would lead a month later to 200-plus death per day.That would lead a month later to 200-plus death per day.
The briefing from Prof Chris Whitty, the government’s chief medical adviser, and Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, is about to start. Vallance presents the first slide.
They will not be taking questions. It shows cases in Spain and France.
Matt Hancock, the health secretary, told ITV’s This Morning that the final decisions about what new restrictions will be imposed have not yet been taken. But he strongly implied that pubs in England will face some restrictions. Increases in case numbers have led to an increase in hospitalisations. And deaths are increasing too, he says.
Asked whether landlords would be told to shut this weekend, Hancock said: He says there is a simple message from the slide: as the disease spreads, there will be more hospitalisations and more deaths, he says.
Hancock said his answer on pubs was “not a no, and it’s not a yes”, adding:
Hancock said he had spoken to Boris Johnson this morning. “He is as worried as we all are about the rise in the number of cases and we have to make a final decision about what’s the best response to that,” Hancock said.
Hancock also suggested that any new restrictions would focus on social settings rather than schools or the workplace.
He pointed out that there were already parts of the country where “there are measures in place to say that you shouldn’t socialise with people outside your household”.
Anneliese Dodds, the shadow chancellor, is delivering her speech to the virtual Labour conference. You can watch it here.
I will post on it when I’ve had a chance to read the full text.
Last week Liam Fox, the former international trade secretary, got through to the final five in the contest to become the next head of the World Trade Organization. The government is backing his candidature although, as a Brexiter, he does not have much EU support and he is not seen as a favourite to win.
And Boris Johnson’s threat to override the Brexit withdrawal agreement that he signed early this year has not helped, Fox has admitted. Asked how helpful it was to his campaign to have the government announce that it would be willing to break international law, Fox told Sky News:
We are definitely getting a Commons statement from Matt Hancock, the health secretary, at 3.30pm.
Most of the questions directed at Grant Shapps, the transport secretary, during his broadcast interviews this morning were about coronavirus, not the rail system. Here are the main points he was making.
Shapps rejected claims that there was a row in cabinet about how strict further restrictions should be. But there had been a debate, he said:
He also refused to say on which side of the debate he stood himself.
He said Boris Johnson would be addressing the public “very soon” following today’s briefing from Prof Chris Whitty and Sir Patrick Vallance to say what would be happening next. But the PM wanted “to allow scientists to set out the picture to the country” first, without politicians present, Shapps said.
He defended the government’s decision to rely so much on emergency legislation, involving regulations coming into force with minimal parliamentary scrutiny, during the pandemic. He said:
The UK government has extended emergency funding measures for rail companies for the next six to 18 months to help them get through the Covid-19 crisis, as a first step towards a complete overhaul of the railway system, my colleague Julia Kollewe reports.
Grant Shapps, the transport secretary, who was doing a round of interviews this morning, has described this as the end of the rail franchising system that has been in place for quarter of a century. He said:
One of Boris Johnson’s ministers has denied a report in the Italian media that the UK prime minister made a secret trip to the country less than a fortnight ago, a claim Downing Street has also rejected as “completely untrue”, my colleague Peter Walker reports.
Good morning. Last night No 10 sent out a short press release with the title “CSA and CMO to give coronavirus data briefing”. In Whitehall it is often the case that the blander the title, the more significant the announcement, and today’s should be very important indeed. CSA is the chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, and CMO is the chief medical officer for England, Prof Chris Whitty (also the UK government’s chief medical adviser), and they are going to tell the nation how serious they think the risk is from the recent rise in coronavirus cases.
According to the news release, Whitty will say:
Whitty and Vallance are speaking ahead of an announcement expected soon, possibly tomorrow, about further measures being imposed to counter the spread of coronavirus. But Boris Johnson will not be joining them, and it appears that, although ministers have been discussing what new measures might be imposed - nationally as well as locally - no final decisions have yet been taken.
How bad could it get? The Times splash (paywall) today, attributing its information to an unnamed senior government figure, starts: “Britain faces a further six months of ‘very difficult’ lockdown restrictions, Downing Street has warned.” No 10 has been playing this down, but it’s worth remembering that right at the start of the first lockdown government scientists were stressing that it was unlikely to be a one-off. This is what SPI-M-O, the scientific pandemic influenza group on modelling, a sub-committee of the government’s scientific advisory group for emergencies (Sage), said in a statement (pdf) on 16 March, the day soft lockdown measures were announced:
The Imperial College paper (pdf) published the same day (the one that persuaded Johnson to commit to the lockdown) included this graph showing one possible scenario for the future involving restrictions being imposed, then lifted, then imposed again (as cases increased), running until the end of 2021.
Here is the agenda for the day.
10.35am: Anneliese Dodds, the shadow chancellor, delivers a speech to Labour’s online conference. As my colleague Heather Stewart reports, Dodds will accuse the Conservatives of wasting billions of pounds of public money through botched outsourcing and poorly-designed job schemes.
11am: Prof Chris Whitty, the government’s chief medical adviser, and Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, hold a briefing.
12pm: Downing Street is due to hold its lobby briefing.
12.15pm: The Scottish government is due to hold its daily coronavirus briefing.
3.30pm: Matt Hancock, the health secretary, is expected to give a Commons statement on coronavirus.
4pm: Nick Thomas-Symonds, the shadow home secretary, delivers a speech to Labour’s online conference.
After 4.30pm: MPs debate amendments to the internal market bill.
Politics Live has been doubling up as the UK coronavirus live blog for some time and, given the way the Covid crisis eclipses everything, this will continue for the foreseeable future. But we will be covering non-Covid political stories too, and where they seem more important and interesting, they will take precedence.
Here is our global coronavirus live blog.
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