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Trudeau Promises Bold Plan to Reset Canada, and His Political Career Trudeau Promises Bold Plan to Reset Canada, and His Political Career
(about 8 hours later)
OTTAWA — A brand-new Canada — greener, healthier, more compassionate, fairer.OTTAWA — A brand-new Canada — greener, healthier, more compassionate, fairer.
That’s what Prime Minister Justin Trudeau promised last month, after announcing that he was suspending Parliament as an ethics scandal involving his government and his family was exploding. That was the vision that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau outlined on Wednesday when he revealed his much-anticipated legislative plan to a country grappling with rising coronavirus cases, fears of a second wave of the pandemic, and continuing economic woes because of shutdowns to fight the virus.
He promised to present the country with an ambitious recovery plan from the coronavirus, and the economic devastation it has unleashed, saying, “This is our moment to change the future for the better.” His plan, presented in the so-called throne speech to Parliament, included sweeping promises of new social programs to help working women and families; beefed-up financial support programs for businesses and workers hit by the economic downturn; and measures to combat climate change while leading the country to recovery.
On Wednesday, he will finally reveal his much-anticipated legislative plan — and as much as it is an effort to reset the nation, it’s also an opportunity for Mr. Trudeau to reset his political fortunes. “This is not the time for austerity,” the speech declared.
Mr. Trudeau is grappling with high unemployment, a soaring budget shortfall and an uncertain future for many of Canada’s businesses. Coronavirus infection rates have begun rising again — as well as fears that a second wave of the pandemic has begun. “It’s up to us to build the world of tomorrow,” Mr. Trudeau said later Wednesday evening in an unusual televised address to the nation, adding that the “government will have your back, whatever it takes, to get you through this crisis.”
Some provinces have revived restrictions, leading to worries about even more economic woes. Lofty — and expensive — long-term goals may be less palatable. He said that Canada was already in the midst of a second wave of infections and warned that “we’re on the brink of a fall that could be much worse than the spring” unless Canadians wear masks, avoid parties and other large gatherings and download tracing apps.
Kathy Brock, a professor in the policy studies department at Queen’s University in Kingston, Ontario, said the prime minister must offer more than platitudes. Mr. Trudeau’s proposals, though, were short on details. Much of the package was a reworking of earlier promises from his Liberal Party, but with measures tailored to fight the coronavirus and the economic woes it has brought the country. The plan was immediately criticized by his main political rivals in the Conservative Party, who said it lacked fiscal restraint.
“Mr. Trudeau has to have a plan or proposal that says to Canadians: ‘We have a sense of where we are going, we aren’t just reacting now,’ ” she said. “They’re still talking that budgets balance themselves,” Candice Bergen, the deputy Conservative leader, told reporters. “It is another speech that is full of Liberal buzzwords and grand gestures.”
Looming over Mr. Trudeau’s proposal is his latest ethics scandal, the decision to award WE Charity — which had paid Mr. Trudeau’s mother and brother to speak at events — a multimillion-dollar contract to administer a summer program for students. Jagmeet Singh, the leader of the left-of-center New Democratic Party, also a rival to Mr. Trudeau, called the speech “empty words.”
The contract was ultimately abandoned and the charity recently announced that it was shutting down operations in Canada. Kathy Brock, a professor in the policy studies department at Queen’s University in Kingston, Ontario, said the speech was so stuffed with promises, it may be difficult for the government to deliver.
But the episode followed last year’s bruising of Mr. Trudeau’s image in the run-up to his re-election, including the SNC-Lavalin controversy over efforts by his office to downgrade criminal charges against a major engineering company, and revelations about the prime minister’s wearing of blackface and brownface in the past. “It was a speech of promises as opposed to a speech that leads to action,” she said. “It looks to me like it’s preparing the way for an election.”
“For people who are suspicious of, or not particularly thrilled by, Justin Trudeau this whole thing only cements what they thought,” said Lori Turnbull, the director of the school of public administration at Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia. Polls show Mr. Trudeau’s Liberal party suffered short-term damage from the episode. Among the most expansive of Mr. Trudeau’s proposals were measures to work toward a national child care program, a plan to cover the cost of drugs through the health care system and new standards for long-term care homes, which have disproportionately been the source of Canada’s more than 9,000 deaths related to the virus.
At the same time, she said, Mr. Trudeau’s supporters “say there’s nothing really to see here,” making the WE affair a wash politically. The prime minister also proposed an economic recovery plan tied to dealing with climate change and other environmental issues as well as adding one million new jobs.
When Mr. Trudeau announced that he would shut down Parliament — which also, his political opponents noted, shut down committee hearings into the WE charity — he raised expectations for what he could deliver. Since the coronavirus arrived in Canada earlier this year, the government has been grappling with high unemployment, a soaring budget shortfall and an uncertain future for many of Canada’s businesses particularly in the economically important oil and gas sector.
“As much as this pandemic is an unexpected challenge, it is also an unprecedented opportunity,” Mr. Trudeau said in August. “This is our chance to build a more resilient Canada. A Canada that is healthier and safer, greener and more competitive. A Canada that is more welcoming and more fair.” As coronavirus cases have increased in recent weeks, some provinces have revived restrictions, leading to worries about even more economic woes.
Opposition parties, businesses, labor unions and think tanks across the country floated ideas about what Mr. Trudeau should include in the plan, which will be put forth in the so-called throne speech, read to Parliament by Governor General Julie Payette as representative for the head of state, Queen Elizabeth II. Last month, Mr. Trudeau suspended Parliament, saying his government was working on an ambitious legislative agenda to address these problems. “This is our moment to change the future for the better,” he said at the time.
These ideas range from a so-called green recovery plan to create jobs but also address climate change, to a national day-care program that would help working mothers, who were disproportionately affected by the pandemic, losing 30 years of employment gains in three months. It is also an opportunity for Mr. Trudeau to reset his political fortunes. Over the past few months, he has had to contend with his government’s decision to award WE Charity — which had paid Mr. Trudeau’s mother and brother to speak at events — a multimillion-dollar contract to administer a summer program for students.
“The pandemic certainly has revealed some cracks in our social safety nets,” said Hassan Yussuff, the president of the Canadian Labour Congress, a body of labor unions. The contract was ultimately abandoned and the charity recently announced it was shutting down operations in Canada.
Given record unemployment numbers across the country, plans to stitch up the country’s social safety net would likely get a good reception, said Dr. Brock, the policy professor, as “Canadians have a real sense of helping each other.” But the episode followed last year’s bruising of Mr. Trudeau’s image in the run-up to his re-election, including the SNC-Lavalin controversy over efforts by his government to downgrade criminal charges against a major engineering company, and revelations about the prime minister’s wearing of blackface and brownface in the past.
In addition to offering wage subsidies and other measures, the government patched over gaps with an emergency program that paid unemployed workers 2,000 Canadian dollars, about $1,500, every four weeks, an amount that in some cases was higher than what some recipients once earned. Still, polls show Mr. Trudeau’s Liberal party suffered only short-term damage from the WE Charity episode. The question now is how his legislative plan will be received.
Rather than extend that program when it ends in early December, one idea is to replace it, as well as unemployment insurance and other federal programs, with a guaranteed minimum income. The plan was presented in a speech given at the reopening of Parliament by Governor General Julie Payette, the representative for the head of state, Queen Elizabeth II. Mr. Trudeau is scheduled to follow up with a rare televised speech to the nation Wednesday evening.
That would require the approval of Canada’s strong provincial governments, which control many social programs and bristle at federal intervention Chief among Mr. Trudeau’s proposals was a revision of the unemployment insurance system to make qualifying easier and to include self-employed and contract workers. But his plan would not extend an emergency program that paid unemployed workers 2,000 Canadian dollars, about $1,500, every four weeks, an amount that in some cases was higher than what some recipients once earned.
. Without offering details, Mr. Trudeau also promised to improve a wage subsidy program put in place earlier this year by extending it to next summer, and adding other supports for businesses.
Government ministers have hinted at a green recovery plan, but that could risk triggering a revolt among Conservative opposition, which theoretically, could create a new political problem for Mr. Trudeau. To help women get back to work, Mr. Trudeau proposed that the government make a major long-term investment to create a Canada-wide early learning and child care system so that “no parent, especially no mother, will have to put their careers on hold.”
His Liberal party is a minority in Parliament and so his plan must attract enough votes from members of opposition parties or else the country will head into a pandemic election campaign. The next federal election is supposed to be in three years. No government in Canada’s history has been defeated on its throne speech. To make many of these proposals reality, though, Mr. Trudeau will need the approval of provincial governments, which have a history of bristling at federal intervention in social programs.
The details of how Mr. Trudeau will pay for any new initiatives will not come until he releases a budget. But there is already widespread debate over how much more the government can afford after pandemic spending has pushed its deficit to levels not seen since World War II. The speech hinted at the possible difficulties with provinces in a section that pledged, to work toward including the cost of drugs in public health care, noting that it will work “with provinces and territories willing to move forward without delay” rather than immediately attempting a national program.
While the speech outlined several green recovery measures, that idea holds little appeal among the Conservative opposition,
Mr. Singh, the New Democratic Party leader, criticized replacing emergency benefit payments with a revised unemployment insurance plan. He suggested that if Mr. Trudeau withdrew that measure and fulfilled a promise to introduce mandatory paid sick leave, his party would support the plan.
Since Mr. Trudeau’s Liberals are a minority in Parliament, his plan must attract enough votes or the country will head into an election campaign even though the next federal vote is supposed to be in three years. No government in Canada’s history has ever been defeated on its throne speech.
The details of how Mr. Trudeau will pay for any new initiatives will not come until he releases a budget update this fall. But there is already widespread debate over how much more the government can afford after pandemic spending has pushed its deficit to levels not seen since World War II.
Most economists agree that the government needs to keep spending on support programs because of the pandemic. But some economists argue that Mr. Trudeau doesn’t have unlimited license.Most economists agree that the government needs to keep spending on support programs because of the pandemic. But some economists argue that Mr. Trudeau doesn’t have unlimited license.
“Households and businesses do still need ongoing support,” said Douglas Porter, the chief economist of the Bank of Montreal. “But I’m not convinced that this is the time for moving way beyond that and bringing in all kinds of new, big, bold policy initiatives that reshape the landscape when we’re not sure where we’re going to be in six months.”“Households and businesses do still need ongoing support,” said Douglas Porter, the chief economist of the Bank of Montreal. “But I’m not convinced that this is the time for moving way beyond that and bringing in all kinds of new, big, bold policy initiatives that reshape the landscape when we’re not sure where we’re going to be in six months.”
In recent days, Mr. Trudeau’s party tried to cool the country’s expectations for a bold strategy, in response to the rising numbers of coronavirus cases.
But pulling back would damage Mr. Trudeau’s already tarnished reputation as a great communicator who is light on substance and ethics, said Dr. Brock, the policy professor.
“There’s a question about Trudeau,” she said. “Does he really understand the files, the business of government and the question of ethics. Does he get it?”
“That image is starting to stick with him,” she added. “That is dangerous. He knows he has to do something, but it has to be something he can accomplish.”
Ian Austen reported from Ottawa, and Catherine Porter from Toronto.Ian Austen reported from Ottawa, and Catherine Porter from Toronto.