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| Covid rules: What's the evidence for 10pm pub closing time? | Covid rules: What's the evidence for 10pm pub closing time? |
| (6 days later) | |
| The government's 10pm mandatory closing time for pubs, bars and restaurants in England has come under scrutiny, following videos posted on social media of crowds gathering outside venues in some cities after closing time. | The government's 10pm mandatory closing time for pubs, bars and restaurants in England has come under scrutiny, following videos posted on social media of crowds gathering outside venues in some cities after closing time. |
| Ministers have been defending the policy but the mayor of Greater Manchester has called for an "urgent review of the emerging evidence" of its impact. | Ministers have been defending the policy but the mayor of Greater Manchester has called for an "urgent review of the emerging evidence" of its impact. |
| So, why was it brought in and what is the science behind it? | So, why was it brought in and what is the science behind it? |
| Why do the new measures target pubs, bars and restaurants? | Why do the new measures target pubs, bars and restaurants? |
| The government introduced the 10pm closing time following a spike in cases across England. | The government introduced the 10pm closing time following a spike in cases across England. |
| Other measures include mandatory table service and the use of face masks whenever a customer is not at their table. Owners can be fined up to £10,000 for failing to implement rules. | |
| Indoor venues, including bars and restaurants, have long been considered particularly vulnerable to the spreading of the virus. | Indoor venues, including bars and restaurants, have long been considered particularly vulnerable to the spreading of the virus. |
| "Wherever you get people crowded together, for example concert halls, cruise ships, house parties, bars and pubs, you risk spreading a virus," says Dr Julian Tang, a professor in respiratory sciences at the University of Leicester. | "Wherever you get people crowded together, for example concert halls, cruise ships, house parties, bars and pubs, you risk spreading a virus," says Dr Julian Tang, a professor in respiratory sciences at the University of Leicester. |
| If people are sitting near each other talking without face masks or coverings, it can maximise the amount of spit droplets that are transferred between people, he says. | If people are sitting near each other talking without face masks or coverings, it can maximise the amount of spit droplets that are transferred between people, he says. |
| His research also highlights the potential risk if the virus is projected into the air whilst breathing and talking, where it stays suspended and may then be inhaled by others. | His research also highlights the potential risk if the virus is projected into the air whilst breathing and talking, where it stays suspended and may then be inhaled by others. |
| "This is a risk in pubs and bars, where the ventilation may be poor and not able to replace this contaminated air rapidly with outdoor fresh air," he says. | "This is a risk in pubs and bars, where the ventilation may be poor and not able to replace this contaminated air rapidly with outdoor fresh air," he says. |
| The World Health Organization has acknowledged that there is emerging evidence that coronavirus can be spread by tiny particles staying in the air and "more studies are urgently needed." | The World Health Organization has acknowledged that there is emerging evidence that coronavirus can be spread by tiny particles staying in the air and "more studies are urgently needed." |
| Evidence from the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), which reports to the government, has highlighted that venues serving alcohol pose a significant risk. | Evidence from the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), which reports to the government, has highlighted that venues serving alcohol pose a significant risk. |
| "Smaller gatherings such as bars and nightclubs are higher risk as you can be in closer contact with others," a report from the 11 February warned. | "Smaller gatherings such as bars and nightclubs are higher risk as you can be in closer contact with others," a report from the 11 February warned. |
| The new measures are aimed at further reducing the overall period of time that people spend in close contact with each other in pubs and restaurants. | |
| Is there any science behind a 10pm closing time? | Is there any science behind a 10pm closing time? |
| We're not entirely sure. | We're not entirely sure. |
| Speaking on the Andrew Marr Show, the University of Edinburgh's Prof Mark Woolhouse, a member of the government's infection modelling team, said "there isn't a proven scientific basis for any of this". | Speaking on the Andrew Marr Show, the University of Edinburgh's Prof Mark Woolhouse, a member of the government's infection modelling team, said "there isn't a proven scientific basis for any of this". |
| However, he said this also applied to the nationwide lockdown which occurred from 23 March onwards. | However, he said this also applied to the nationwide lockdown which occurred from 23 March onwards. |
| Prime Minister Boris Johnson has tried to explain the logic behind the 10pm closing time. | |
| "What we've seen from the evidence is that the spread of the disease does tend to happen later at night after more alcohol has been consumed. This is one way we see of driving down the R [reproductive rate] without doing excessive economic damage," he said. | "What we've seen from the evidence is that the spread of the disease does tend to happen later at night after more alcohol has been consumed. This is one way we see of driving down the R [reproductive rate] without doing excessive economic damage," he said. |
| We asked the Department for Health and Social Care (DHSC) if there was any specific scientific advice about the cut-off time for pubs, bars and restaurants. | |
| It did not provide it but said: "The 10pm closure allows people to continue to socialise while reducing the risk of failing to socially distance." | |
| Previously, it directed us to a A previous report from Sage on 20 August - referencing alcohol at football matches - which said that "specific activities such as hugging and singing/cheering could also increase the risk of transmission, and may be enhanced by alcohol use". | |
| Has earlier closing time causing crowding? | |
| On the first day of the 10pm closing time in England, a video showed pub-goers in Central London crowding around the entrance to a Tube station once the pubs had closed. | |
| Any kind of gathering - whether it is in a pub or a Tube carriage - where people are tightly packed together and social distancing is not enforced, risks spreading the virus. | |
| Greater Manchester's Mayor, Andy Burnham, has warned of a rush to off-licences following pub closing time which could lead to an increase in outside gatherings or house parties. | Greater Manchester's Mayor, Andy Burnham, has warned of a rush to off-licences following pub closing time which could lead to an increase in outside gatherings or house parties. |
| In Wales, pubs and restaurants have to stop selling alcohol at 10pm but, unlike England, off-licences and supermarkets must also stop selling alcohol at the same time and it cannot be delivered either, including hotel room service. | In Wales, pubs and restaurants have to stop selling alcohol at 10pm but, unlike England, off-licences and supermarkets must also stop selling alcohol at the same time and it cannot be delivered either, including hotel room service. |
| Are pubs and restaurants spreading the virus? | Are pubs and restaurants spreading the virus? |
| At this point, we have some data but it does not tell the full story. | |
| Public Health England (PHE) releases figures on outbreaks of coronavirus by the type of institution. | |
| A total of 2,964 Covid-19 outbreaks were recorded between 3 August and 4 October, including: | |
| But this data requires two or more cases to be tracked down to the location via PHE's Health Protection Teams. | |
| This means these people must get tested, report accurately where they had been to the government's Track and Trace programme, and for an investigation to conclude that these places had been the source of outbreaks. | This means these people must get tested, report accurately where they had been to the government's Track and Trace programme, and for an investigation to conclude that these places had been the source of outbreaks. |
| This might be easier to do with closely monitored or prioritised places like schools, hospitals and care homes. | |
| The Test and Trace system attempts to find out the places people visited in the week prior to showing coronavirus symptoms. | |
| Of the 87,128 events people said they had attended in which there was some contact with others between 10 August and 24 September: | Of the 87,128 events people said they had attended in which there was some contact with others between 10 August and 24 September: |
| This data only highlights where people went prior to getting the virus but this may not be where they actually caught it. | This data only highlights where people went prior to getting the virus but this may not be where they actually caught it. |
| Public Health England does say it is helpful in indicating "possible places where transmission is happening". | Public Health England does say it is helpful in indicating "possible places where transmission is happening". |
| Other Track and Trace data highlights the contacts people recorded since developing symptoms. | Other Track and Trace data highlights the contacts people recorded since developing symptoms. |
| Perhaps unsurprisingly, by far the largest group of contacts people met were members of their own household. | Perhaps unsurprisingly, by far the largest group of contacts people met were members of their own household. |
| But once again, this doesn't show who (and where) the virus is spreading from, just the people they have have come into contact with. | But once again, this doesn't show who (and where) the virus is spreading from, just the people they have have come into contact with. |
| This piece has been updated to reflect the latest data from PHE's National flu and Covid-19 surveillance report. But, NHS Test and Trace data only goes up to 24 September. | |
| Additional research by Tamara Kovacevic and Nicholas Barrett | Additional research by Tamara Kovacevic and Nicholas Barrett |
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