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| Global manufacturing growth hits 25-month high; US jobless claims fall – as it happened | |
| (32 minutes later) | |
| Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as UK manufacturing recovery continues....but headcounts are still cut | Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as UK manufacturing recovery continues....but headcounts are still cut |
| Time for a quick recap, after a day dominated by employment worries. | |
| Global manufacturing has posted its strongest growth in over two years. Factory bosses across the world reported that new orders and output grew in September. | |
| This lifted the J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI to 52.3 in September, up from 51.7 in August. | |
| UK factories posted solid growth, with the manufacturing PMI dipping to 54.1 in September, down from August’s two-and-a-half year high of 55.2. | |
| That shows growth...but it didn’t stop firms cutting staff levels again. Industry experts warned that the employment picture has darkened. | |
| The Bank of England’s latest survey of decision makers at UK companies also found they expect employment levels to fall in the coming months. | |
| The US unemployment picture remains troubling too, with 837,000 new jobless claims filed last week. | |
| The pound had a volatile day. It first fell after the EU launched legal proceedings against the UK for infringing the Brexit withdrawal deal, only to then rally on optimistic noises from the Brexit free trade deal talks. | |
| But it has now subsided again, down 0.2% at $1.2882, on concerns that fishing rights are proving troublesome. | |
| UK jet engine maker Rolls-Royce has finally launched a cash call to shore up its battered balance sheet. The firm is raising £2bn from shareholders, £1bn in a bond, plus a £1bn loan from its bankers and £1bn credit from the government. | |
| Rolls-Royce insisted the move would help it rise out the Covid-19 crisis, but shares have ended the day at a 17-year low. | |
| Halfords had a better day, though, surging by 30% after it hiked its profits guidance thanks to strong sales of bicycles in the pandemic. | |
| And in the world of robotic grocers, Ocado has been accused of patent infringement by Norway’s Autostore. The UK firm has hit back, saying it is checking whether Autostore has infringed its patents. | |
| Goodnight. GW | |
| European stock markets have closed rather weakly, as the early optimism about US stimulus talks waned. | |
| The Stoxx 600 index has close just 0.5 points higher at 361, a gain of 0.15%. | |
| Although France and Italy rallied slightly, Germany’s DAX fell 0.4% after pharmaceuticals firm Bayer posted a profits warning (sending its shares down 12%). | |
| In London, the FTSE 100 has closed 13 points higher at 5,879, up 0.23%. Aerospace engineering firm Melrose gained 4%, with energy company SSE up 3.8%. | |
| But Rolls-Royce has sunk to its lowest closing level in 17 years, tumbling 10% to 116p after announcing a deeply discounted rights issue to shore up its finances. | |
| Less impressively, factories around the globe continued to cut jobs last month (including in the UK, as we learned earlier). | Less impressively, factories around the globe continued to cut jobs last month (including in the UK, as we learned earlier). |
| That’s the 10th month of falling manufacturing employment in a row. But the pace did slow, with staffing levels raised in the US and China, but reduced in the eurozone and Japan. | That’s the 10th month of falling manufacturing employment in a row. But the pace did slow, with staffing levels raised in the US and China, but reduced in the eurozone and Japan. |
| Olya Borichevska, Global Economist at J.P.Morgan, sums up today’s report: | Olya Borichevska, Global Economist at J.P.Morgan, sums up today’s report: |
| Brazil’s factories posted the fastest growth last month, followed by India, according to the PMI surveys, while Myanmar and Mexico suffered contractions. | Brazil’s factories posted the fastest growth last month, followed by India, according to the PMI surveys, while Myanmar and Mexico suffered contractions. |
| Growth across the world’s factories hit its highest level in over two years in September, as manufacturing recovered from Covid-19 lockdowns. | Growth across the world’s factories hit its highest level in over two years in September, as manufacturing recovered from Covid-19 lockdowns. |
| That’s according to JP Morgan, which has crunched all the latest manufacturing PMI reports from the UK, eurozone, the US and across Asia. It found that output and new orders both rose for the third successive month, while new export business expanded for the first time in over two years. | That’s according to JP Morgan, which has crunched all the latest manufacturing PMI reports from the UK, eurozone, the US and across Asia. It found that output and new orders both rose for the third successive month, while new export business expanded for the first time in over two years. |
| This lifted the J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI to 52.3 in September, up from 51.8, showing faster growth. | This lifted the J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI to 52.3 in September, up from 51.8, showing faster growth. |
| They explain: | They explain: |
| Just in: America’s manufacturing posted solid growth last month, two rival surveys have showed. | Just in: America’s manufacturing posted solid growth last month, two rival surveys have showed. |
| The Institute of Supply Management’s monthly factory PMI has dropped to 55.4 for September, from 56.0 in August. That shows pretty decent expansion, although slightly slower than a month ago. | The Institute of Supply Management’s monthly factory PMI has dropped to 55.4 for September, from 56.0 in August. That shows pretty decent expansion, although slightly slower than a month ago. |
| IHS Markit’s competing PMI survey show a slightly different story - with the index rising to 53.2 in September, up from 53.1 in August. | IHS Markit’s competing PMI survey show a slightly different story - with the index rising to 53.2 in September, up from 53.1 in August. |
| That shows the sharpest improvement in operating conditions across the U.S. manufacturing sector since early-2019...although it’s still lower than the ‘flash’ estimate of 53.5 recorded during September. | That shows the sharpest improvement in operating conditions across the U.S. manufacturing sector since early-2019...although it’s still lower than the ‘flash’ estimate of 53.5 recorded during September. |
| US factories reported higher demand for plant and machinery, as customers increased their investment spending. With order books busier, firms took on more staff too (unlike in Britain, where they are still cutting employee numbers). | US factories reported higher demand for plant and machinery, as customers increased their investment spending. With order books busier, firms took on more staff too (unlike in Britain, where they are still cutting employee numbers). |
| Ah... perhaps we won’t get a stimulus deal today after all: | Ah... perhaps we won’t get a stimulus deal today after all: |
| This has knocked stocks back, with the Dow losing its earlier gains. | This has knocked stocks back, with the Dow losing its earlier gains. |
| The European Medicines Agency, the European regulator, has started its first rolling review of a Covid-19 vaccine: the vaccine that is being developed by the University of Oxford and AstraZeneca. | The European Medicines Agency, the European regulator, has started its first rolling review of a Covid-19 vaccine: the vaccine that is being developed by the University of Oxford and AstraZeneca. |
| This means its human medicines committee has started evaluating the first batch of data, although a conclusion can’t be reached yet on safety and effectiveness. To speed up the approval process, the committee will review data as it becomes available from the ongoing clinical studies, before deciding that it has received enough data and that a formal application for approval should be submitted by the company. The vaccine is currently being tested in trials involving up to 60,000 people around the world. | This means its human medicines committee has started evaluating the first batch of data, although a conclusion can’t be reached yet on safety and effectiveness. To speed up the approval process, the committee will review data as it becomes available from the ongoing clinical studies, before deciding that it has received enough data and that a formal application for approval should be submitted by the company. The vaccine is currently being tested in trials involving up to 60,000 people around the world. |
| The EMA decided to start a rolling review after preliminary results from non-clinical and early clinical studies suggested that the vaccine triggers the production of antibodies and T cells (cells of the immune system, the body’s natural defences) that target the virus. | The EMA decided to start a rolling review after preliminary results from non-clinical and early clinical studies suggested that the vaccine triggers the production of antibodies and T cells (cells of the immune system, the body’s natural defences) that target the virus. |
| Wall Street has opened higher, with the Dow Jones industrial average gaining 223 points or 0.8% to 28,005. | Wall Street has opened higher, with the Dow Jones industrial average gaining 223 points or 0.8% to 28,005. |
| Investors are looking beyond the persistently high US jobless claims, and hoping for a fiscal stimulus deal to be hammered out on Capitol Hill. | Investors are looking beyond the persistently high US jobless claims, and hoping for a fiscal stimulus deal to be hammered out on Capitol Hill. |
| Despite America’s high unemployment levels, the country’s housing market remains hot. | Despite America’s high unemployment levels, the country’s housing market remains hot. |
| House prices at the 20 largest US cities jumped by 3.9% per year in July, up from 3.5% in June, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index. | House prices at the 20 largest US cities jumped by 3.9% per year in July, up from 3.5% in June, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index. |
| With relatively few homes on the market, prospective buyers are having to compete hard, with record low interest rates making large loans more affordable. | With relatively few homes on the market, prospective buyers are having to compete hard, with record low interest rates making large loans more affordable. |
| Prices rose fastest in Phoenix (+9.2%), followed by Seattle (+7%) Charlotte (+6%). | Prices rose fastest in Phoenix (+9.2%), followed by Seattle (+7%) Charlotte (+6%). |
| Craig Lazzara, managing director and global head of index investment strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices, explains: | Craig Lazzara, managing director and global head of index investment strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices, explains: |
| Worryingly, there’s been little reduction in the number of new weekly jobless claims during September, despite the drop to 837,000 last week. | Worryingly, there’s been little reduction in the number of new weekly jobless claims during September, despite the drop to 837,000 last week. |
| That suggests there’s a lot of churn in the US labor market: | That suggests there’s a lot of churn in the US labor market: |
| Glassdoor senior economist Daniel Zhao fears that America’s labor market is stagnating: | Glassdoor senior economist Daniel Zhao fears that America’s labor market is stagnating: |
| As this chart shows, the number of Americans on jobless benefit is around three times higher than in March, due to heavy job losses during the pandemic. | As this chart shows, the number of Americans on jobless benefit is around three times higher than in March, due to heavy job losses during the pandemic. |
| Today’s weekly jobless report is an appetiser for tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payroll, which will show how many jobs were created in September. | Today’s weekly jobless report is an appetiser for tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payroll, which will show how many jobs were created in September. |
| Elizabeth Pancotti of Employ America predicts the NFP (the last before the presidential election) could be unimpressive. | Elizabeth Pancotti of Employ America predicts the NFP (the last before the presidential election) could be unimpressive. |
| Economists predict that the US jobless rate will have dropped from 8.4% to 8.2%, with the employment total rising by 850,000 in September - compared to 1.37 million in August. | Economists predict that the US jobless rate will have dropped from 8.4% to 8.2%, with the employment total rising by 850,000 in September - compared to 1.37 million in August. |
| Richard Flynn, UK managing director at Charles Schwab, says today’s US jobless report shows a marginal recovery: | Richard Flynn, UK managing director at Charles Schwab, says today’s US jobless report shows a marginal recovery: |
| Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, says the US jobless claims total is still ‘staggeringly high’. | Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, says the US jobless claims total is still ‘staggeringly high’. |
| Gregory Daco of Oxford Economics is also concerned that claims aren’t falling - more than six months after the initial lockdown. | Gregory Daco of Oxford Economics is also concerned that claims aren’t falling - more than six months after the initial lockdown. |
| Newsflash: The number of Americans filing new unemployment claims in the last week has fallen, but is still painfully high. | Newsflash: The number of Americans filing new unemployment claims in the last week has fallen, but is still painfully high. |
| Around 837,000 fresh initial claims for jobless support were filed across the US last week, down from 873,000 in the previous seven days. | Around 837,000 fresh initial claims for jobless support were filed across the US last week, down from 873,000 in the previous seven days. |
| That’s a welcome drop, but it still means that more Americans lost their jobs than in any week before the Covid-19 crisis. | That’s a welcome drop, but it still means that more Americans lost their jobs than in any week before the Covid-19 crisis. |
| The ‘continuing claims’ total (people who have been unemployed for at least a fortnight) also fell, quite sharply, from 12.747 million to 11.767 million. | The ‘continuing claims’ total (people who have been unemployed for at least a fortnight) also fell, quite sharply, from 12.747 million to 11.767 million. |
| More details and reaction to follow..... | More details and reaction to follow..... |
| Ocado has responded to Autostore’s claims of patent infringement -- telling the City that it was unaware of these allegations until today. | Ocado has responded to Autostore’s claims of patent infringement -- telling the City that it was unaware of these allegations until today. |
| Ocado is also vowing to protect its own robotic shopping intellectual property against Autostore. | Ocado is also vowing to protect its own robotic shopping intellectual property against Autostore. |
| Here’s the statement: | Here’s the statement: |
| Wall Street is on track to rally when trading begins in an hour, as investors hope for progress on a US stimulus package. | Wall Street is on track to rally when trading begins in an hour, as investors hope for progress on a US stimulus package. |
| The S&P 500 index is 1% higher in the futures market, ahead of fresh talks between House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. | The S&P 500 index is 1% higher in the futures market, ahead of fresh talks between House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. |
| Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA Europe says there’s optimism that the gap between the Democratic package ($2.2trn) and the Republicans proposal ($1.5trn) could narrow. | Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA Europe says there’s optimism that the gap between the Democratic package ($2.2trn) and the Republicans proposal ($1.5trn) could narrow. |
| Ocado’s shares are down 5% today after a Norwegian rival accused the company of stealing the technology behind its robot-powered grocery picking warehouses. | Ocado’s shares are down 5% today after a Norwegian rival accused the company of stealing the technology behind its robot-powered grocery picking warehouses. |
| AutoStore has filed patent infringement lawsuits in America and the UK against the FTSE 100-listed online grocery company. | AutoStore has filed patent infringement lawsuits in America and the UK against the FTSE 100-listed online grocery company. |
| The company wants to stop Ocado selling the so-called Ocado Smart Platform (OSP) to other retailers (this is the hi-tech system uses robots to swarm over a 3D frame called the “grid” to pick shoppers’ orders). | The company wants to stop Ocado selling the so-called Ocado Smart Platform (OSP) to other retailers (this is the hi-tech system uses robots to swarm over a 3D frame called the “grid” to pick shoppers’ orders). |
| Ocado’s share price has soared over the last three years after it struck its first deal to supply the technology overseas chains. The first deal, with Groupe Casino in France, has been followed by eight others, ranging from Kroger in the US to Aeon in Japan – and hopes of further deal have put the company’s worth on a par with Tesco, the UK’s biggest retailers. | Ocado’s share price has soared over the last three years after it struck its first deal to supply the technology overseas chains. The first deal, with Groupe Casino in France, has been followed by eight others, ranging from Kroger in the US to Aeon in Japan – and hopes of further deal have put the company’s worth on a par with Tesco, the UK’s biggest retailers. |
| AutoStore is seeking orders barring Ocado from manufacturing, importing, using and selling the OSP which it claims is based on its own robotic platform. | AutoStore is seeking orders barring Ocado from manufacturing, importing, using and selling the OSP which it claims is based on its own robotic platform. |
| AutoStore is also seeking financial damages. AutoStore chief executive Karl Johan Lier said its “ownership of the technology at the heart of Ocado’s warehousing system is clear”, adding: | AutoStore is also seeking financial damages. AutoStore chief executive Karl Johan Lier said its “ownership of the technology at the heart of Ocado’s warehousing system is clear”, adding: |
| The pound has just dramatically recovered those early losses, after the FT’s Sebastian Payne tweeted that negotiations on a Brexit free trade deal are making progress. | The pound has just dramatically recovered those early losses, after the FT’s Sebastian Payne tweeted that negotiations on a Brexit free trade deal are making progress. |
| Sterling has jumped back to $1.2940, on the prospect of a “landing zone” to resolve differences on state aid. Fishing rights, though, seem to be the sticking point..... | Sterling has jumped back to $1.2940, on the prospect of a “landing zone” to resolve differences on state aid. Fishing rights, though, seem to be the sticking point..... |
| (the tunnel is the point at which intensified negotiations take place, once a deal is close) | (the tunnel is the point at which intensified negotiations take place, once a deal is close) |