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| Covid-19: Circuit-breaker lockdown could 'buy Scotland time' | Covid-19: Circuit-breaker lockdown could 'buy Scotland time' |
| (32 minutes later) | |
| A "circuit-breaker" lockdown could help Scotland reduce Covid-19 infection rates by getting the R number down, the national clinical director has said. | A "circuit-breaker" lockdown could help Scotland reduce Covid-19 infection rates by getting the R number down, the national clinical director has said. |
| Jason Leitch told BBC Scotland a two-week circuit-breaker could buy the country 28 days in the pandemic. | Jason Leitch told BBC Scotland a two-week circuit-breaker could buy the country 28 days in the pandemic. |
| He said some closures to business and education would deliver a "short, sharp shock" to the R number without the need for a full lockdown. | He said some closures to business and education would deliver a "short, sharp shock" to the R number without the need for a full lockdown. |
| The Scottish government has warned of a "rising prevalence" of the virus. | The Scottish government has warned of a "rising prevalence" of the virus. |
| Another 758 positive cases were confirmed on Sunday and Deputy First Minister John Swinney said further restrictions may be introduced to combat the spread of coronavirus. | Another 758 positive cases were confirmed on Sunday and Deputy First Minister John Swinney said further restrictions may be introduced to combat the spread of coronavirus. |
| The numbers of Covid-19 patients in hospital and those being treated in intensive care is also rising. | The numbers of Covid-19 patients in hospital and those being treated in intensive care is also rising. |
| Speaking on BBC Scotland's Seven Days programme, Mr Leitch said a circuit-breaker - a short period of tightened restrictions - was about "buying yourself more time". | |
| "Not full lockdown like 23 March - so you might make some choices in there about schools or about further education - but fundamentally a short, sharp shock to the R number," he said. | "Not full lockdown like 23 March - so you might make some choices in there about schools or about further education - but fundamentally a short, sharp shock to the R number," he said. |
| "You get the R number down, you get the numbers down to a reasonable level and then you can begin to reintroduce some of the things that you've closed. | |
| "So the idea is that a two-week, roughly, circuit-breaker, would buy you 28 days. You don't know that for sure, because it's not an exact science, but it would buy you about a month in the pandemic." | "So the idea is that a two-week, roughly, circuit-breaker, would buy you 28 days. You don't know that for sure, because it's not an exact science, but it would buy you about a month in the pandemic." |
| Mr Leitch said there was a choice to be made on whether a circuit-breaker lockdown would be a cost "worth paying". | Mr Leitch said there was a choice to be made on whether a circuit-breaker lockdown would be a cost "worth paying". |
| The R number - also known as the R-value or reproduction number - is a way of rating any disease's ability to spread and refers to the average number of people an individual would be expected to infect. | The R number - also known as the R-value or reproduction number - is a way of rating any disease's ability to spread and refers to the average number of people an individual would be expected to infect. |
| The higher the number, the more out of control a disease is. | The higher the number, the more out of control a disease is. |
| If the reproduction number is higher than one, then the number of cases increases exponentially. | If the reproduction number is higher than one, then the number of cases increases exponentially. |
| But if the number is lower the disease will eventually stop spreading, as not enough new people are being infected to sustain the outbreak. | But if the number is lower the disease will eventually stop spreading, as not enough new people are being infected to sustain the outbreak. |
| The Scottish government estimates the R number could have been above one since early September and currently could be as high as 1.7. |