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| If Trump Loses the Election, What Happens to Trumpism? | |
| (about 4 hours later) | |
| Right now it’s hard to cast our minds past Election Day, or tomorrow for that matter, but a crucial question hangs over the 2020 election. What happens to the political parties they lead if Trump wins and Biden loses? What about the other way around? How would either of these outcomes affect the struggle between the establishment and insurgent wings in each party? | Right now it’s hard to cast our minds past Election Day, or tomorrow for that matter, but a crucial question hangs over the 2020 election. What happens to the political parties they lead if Trump wins and Biden loses? What about the other way around? How would either of these outcomes affect the struggle between the establishment and insurgent wings in each party? |
| At the moment, on the Republican side, the insurgent Trump wing is in control, unchallenged, as the party establishment lies in tatters. | At the moment, on the Republican side, the insurgent Trump wing is in control, unchallenged, as the party establishment lies in tatters. |
| On the Democratic side, establishment forces nominated Joe Biden decisively after fending off challenges from the party’s left wing. | On the Democratic side, establishment forces nominated Joe Biden decisively after fending off challenges from the party’s left wing. |
| Two things are clear. | Two things are clear. |
| First, a Biden defeat would sharply increase the likelihood that the Democratic left — the Bernie Sanders-Elizabeth Warren-Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wing — would wrest control of the nomination process in 2024. | First, a Biden defeat would sharply increase the likelihood that the Democratic left — the Bernie Sanders-Elizabeth Warren-Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wing — would wrest control of the nomination process in 2024. |
| Second, the Trump doctrine — xenophobia, animosity to immigration, racial resentment and hatred of all things liberal — is almost certain to continue as the most powerful force in the Republican Party. | Second, the Trump doctrine — xenophobia, animosity to immigration, racial resentment and hatred of all things liberal — is almost certain to continue as the most powerful force in the Republican Party. |
| “It is unlikely that the Republican establishment wing can be reborn,” Howard Rosenthal, a political scientist at N.Y.U., said by email. The Lincoln Project, a concerted campaign against Trump led by prominent Republican strategists and consultants, “doesn’t seem to be moving the needle,” Rosenthal added. | “It is unlikely that the Republican establishment wing can be reborn,” Howard Rosenthal, a political scientist at N.Y.U., said by email. The Lincoln Project, a concerted campaign against Trump led by prominent Republican strategists and consultants, “doesn’t seem to be moving the needle,” Rosenthal added. |
| Along similar lines, Stanley Feldman, a political scientist at Stony Brook University, argued in an email: | Along similar lines, Stanley Feldman, a political scientist at Stony Brook University, argued in an email: |
| At the same time, Feldman continued, “a Biden loss would almost certainly empower the progressive wing of the Democratic Party.” Not only that, Feldman said, | At the same time, Feldman continued, “a Biden loss would almost certainly empower the progressive wing of the Democratic Party.” Not only that, Feldman said, |
| “While Biden clearly represents the more moderate side of the party,” Feldman added, “it’s important to remember that he is running on a platform that may be more liberal than any Democrat since Lyndon Johnson.” | “While Biden clearly represents the more moderate side of the party,” Feldman added, “it’s important to remember that he is running on a platform that may be more liberal than any Democrat since Lyndon Johnson.” |
| “The Democratic Party will continue to move left,” Feldman contended: | “The Democratic Party will continue to move left,” Feldman contended: |
| Sean McElwee, one of the founders of the liberal research institute Data for Progress, made the case that the progressive wing will continue to gain strength under a Biden presidency, despite Biden’s moderate instincts. | Sean McElwee, one of the founders of the liberal research institute Data for Progress, made the case that the progressive wing will continue to gain strength under a Biden presidency, despite Biden’s moderate instincts. |
| Biden has already agreed, McElwee wrote by email, “to move his platform to the left on key issues.” In addition, | Biden has already agreed, McElwee wrote by email, “to move his platform to the left on key issues.” In addition, |
| Furthermore, McElwee argued, | Furthermore, McElwee argued, |
| Progressives are empowered as well by the credible threat of challenging moderate party leaders in primaries, McElwee noted, pointing out, as an example, that “Chuck Schumer would prefer to not have a competitive primary, and his way to avoid that is by appealing to the very liberal New York Democratic electorate.” | Progressives are empowered as well by the credible threat of challenging moderate party leaders in primaries, McElwee noted, pointing out, as an example, that “Chuck Schumer would prefer to not have a competitive primary, and his way to avoid that is by appealing to the very liberal New York Democratic electorate.” |
| Rogers Smith, a political scientist at the University of Pennsylvania, pointed to the damage a Trump win would inflict on the Democratic mainstream: “A Trump victory, particularly after this terribly conducted Trump campaign, would definitely discredit the Democratic establishment.” | Rogers Smith, a political scientist at the University of Pennsylvania, pointed to the damage a Trump win would inflict on the Democratic mainstream: “A Trump victory, particularly after this terribly conducted Trump campaign, would definitely discredit the Democratic establishment.” |
| Smith noted by email that | Smith noted by email that |
| A Trump defeat, Smith added, will not mean the end of Trumpism: | A Trump defeat, Smith added, will not mean the end of Trumpism: |
| If Biden is elected, the party’s left wing is likely to push him farther than he wants to go — to adopt more progressive policies on taxation, policing, affirmative action, immigration and other issues that have divided the nation in recent years. | If Biden is elected, the party’s left wing is likely to push him farther than he wants to go — to adopt more progressive policies on taxation, policing, affirmative action, immigration and other issues that have divided the nation in recent years. |
| This will do little to heal the internal conflicts of the Democratic Party, in the view of D. Sunshine Hillygus, a professor of political science at Duke. She emailed me to say: | This will do little to heal the internal conflicts of the Democratic Party, in the view of D. Sunshine Hillygus, a professor of political science at Duke. She emailed me to say: |
| Hillygus is one of the few experts who argue that the Republican Party will move away from Trumpism, albeit slowly: | Hillygus is one of the few experts who argue that the Republican Party will move away from Trumpism, albeit slowly: |
| Theda Skocpol, a professor at Harvard of government and sociology, has a substantially different view, contending that if Democrats take both the White House and the Senate, and retain control of the House, they stand a good chance of achieving legislative and political success. If the Democrats fail to win the Senate, however, the party faces problems. | Theda Skocpol, a professor at Harvard of government and sociology, has a substantially different view, contending that if Democrats take both the White House and the Senate, and retain control of the House, they stand a good chance of achieving legislative and political success. If the Democrats fail to win the Senate, however, the party faces problems. |
| Since Trump won four years ago, Skocpol wrote in an email, | Since Trump won four years ago, Skocpol wrote in an email, |
| Without control of the Senate, Skocpol continued, | Without control of the Senate, Skocpol continued, |
| With a Democratic Senate majority, especially with a cushion of 2 or 3 votes, Skocpol wrote that she | With a Democratic Senate majority, especially with a cushion of 2 or 3 votes, Skocpol wrote that she |
| Marc Hetherington, a political scientist at Vanderbilt, wrote to say that Democratic control of the Senate will be crucial to the continued strength of the party’s establishment wing. | Marc Hetherington, a political scientist at Vanderbilt, wrote to say that Democratic control of the Senate will be crucial to the continued strength of the party’s establishment wing. |
| “I suspect winning the Senate will be critical to establishment’s future credibility,” Hetherington emailed. In the short run, “just ridding the White House of Donald Trump will feel like a real accomplishment.” | “I suspect winning the Senate will be critical to establishment’s future credibility,” Hetherington emailed. In the short run, “just ridding the White House of Donald Trump will feel like a real accomplishment.” |
| But, he continued: | But, he continued: |
| Hetherington and some of his colleagues have begun exploring the possibility that Trump “may well have added something new to the Republican Party, something that is not at all conservative, that wasn’t there before.” | Hetherington and some of his colleagues have begun exploring the possibility that Trump “may well have added something new to the Republican Party, something that is not at all conservative, that wasn’t there before.” |
| This is a preference for people who are “tough, aggressive, willful. Those do not tend to be the characteristics of conservative thinking (nor of liberal thinking).” But, Hetherington added, | This is a preference for people who are “tough, aggressive, willful. Those do not tend to be the characteristics of conservative thinking (nor of liberal thinking).” But, Hetherington added, |
| Since Hetherington and his co-researchers have | Since Hetherington and his co-researchers have |
| These voters, according to Hetherington, | These voters, according to Hetherington, |
| Even with full control of the White House and Congress, Democrats will face an uphill struggle maintaining popular support, Yphtach Lelkes, a professor of communication and political science at the University of Pennsylvania, wrote me: | Even with full control of the White House and Congress, Democrats will face an uphill struggle maintaining popular support, Yphtach Lelkes, a professor of communication and political science at the University of Pennsylvania, wrote me: |
| Based on this logic, Lelkes continued, “if Biden wins, the public will shift to the right. This also means that the median Democrat will also be more right than if Trump wins.” The shift would not, however, threaten the intraparty dominance of the Democratic establishment. “The hard core left,” Lelkes wrote, “will be in a weaker position.” | Based on this logic, Lelkes continued, “if Biden wins, the public will shift to the right. This also means that the median Democrat will also be more right than if Trump wins.” The shift would not, however, threaten the intraparty dominance of the Democratic establishment. “The hard core left,” Lelkes wrote, “will be in a weaker position.” |
| In the alternative setting — Trump wins and continues to push a right-wing agenda — “the public will continue on their leftward shift (which we’ve clearly seen on social issues, ACA attitudes, etc.),” Lelkes wrote. In that case, the Democratic establishment — the moderate left — “will then be in a weaker position.” | In the alternative setting — Trump wins and continues to push a right-wing agenda — “the public will continue on their leftward shift (which we’ve clearly seen on social issues, ACA attitudes, etc.),” Lelkes wrote. In that case, the Democratic establishment — the moderate left — “will then be in a weaker position.” |
| There are multiple variations on the theme that a Trump victory would severely damage the Democratic center. | There are multiple variations on the theme that a Trump victory would severely damage the Democratic center. |
| Sean Westwood, a political scientist at Dartmouth, argued “the gut instinct of the Sanders-Warren constituency in the case of a Trump victory would be to try to move the party leftward,” but the implications would require far more serious remedies, Westwood wrote: | Sean Westwood, a political scientist at Dartmouth, argued “the gut instinct of the Sanders-Warren constituency in the case of a Trump victory would be to try to move the party leftward,” but the implications would require far more serious remedies, Westwood wrote: |
| “If a loss occurs,” Westwood continued, | “If a loss occurs,” Westwood continued, |
| To support his argument against the party moving left, Westwood cited a 2015 article, “What Happens When Extremists Win Primaries?” by Andrew Hall, a Stanford political scientist, who found that when a party nominates an extremist candidate, | To support his argument against the party moving left, Westwood cited a 2015 article, “What Happens When Extremists Win Primaries?” by Andrew Hall, a Stanford political scientist, who found that when a party nominates an extremist candidate, |
| On a different tack, Brandice Canes-Wrone, a professor of public and international affairs at Princeton, shares the view that the Trump insurgency will remain a powerful force within the party — win or lose. | On a different tack, Brandice Canes-Wrone, a professor of public and international affairs at Princeton, shares the view that the Trump insurgency will remain a powerful force within the party — win or lose. |
| “Even with a decisive loss, the insurgent wing isn’t fading away,” she said: | “Even with a decisive loss, the insurgent wing isn’t fading away,” she said: |
| The challenge facing the Republican establishment, if it seeks to regain strength, according to Canes-Wrone, “will be to address the policy and emotional concerns of the insurgent wing without devolving into populism. Whether that will be achieved remains uncertain.” | The challenge facing the Republican establishment, if it seeks to regain strength, according to Canes-Wrone, “will be to address the policy and emotional concerns of the insurgent wing without devolving into populism. Whether that will be achieved remains uncertain.” |
| Daniel Schlozman, a political scientist at Johns Hopkins, agreed that the Trump wing of the party will not disappear if Trump is defeated: | Daniel Schlozman, a political scientist at Johns Hopkins, agreed that the Trump wing of the party will not disappear if Trump is defeated: |
| Schlozman warned that if Trumpism | Schlozman warned that if Trumpism |
| Schlozman, in fact, has his doubts about the long-term viability of the Democratic Party. | Schlozman, in fact, has his doubts about the long-term viability of the Democratic Party. |
| In “The Politics of Listlessness: Polarization, Neoliberalism, and the Democratic Party Since 1980,” written with Sam Rosenfeld, a political scientist at Colgate, Schlozman describes a contemporary Democratic Party that is still suffering from decades of policymaking lethargy that extended from the 1970s into the present. | In “The Politics of Listlessness: Polarization, Neoliberalism, and the Democratic Party Since 1980,” written with Sam Rosenfeld, a political scientist at Colgate, Schlozman describes a contemporary Democratic Party that is still suffering from decades of policymaking lethargy that extended from the 1970s into the present. |
| During this period, Schlozman and Rosenfeld wrote, | During this period, Schlozman and Rosenfeld wrote, |
| The result? | The result? |
| According to Schlozman and Rosenfeld, the dominant theme has been | According to Schlozman and Rosenfeld, the dominant theme has been |
| In a sharply worded critique, Schlozman and Rosenfeld write: “Perhaps no one more purely embodied the post-New Deal Democratic Party in all its vicissitudes than Joe Biden.” This is apparent, they argue, | In a sharply worded critique, Schlozman and Rosenfeld write: “Perhaps no one more purely embodied the post-New Deal Democratic Party in all its vicissitudes than Joe Biden.” This is apparent, they argue, |
| David Hopkins, a political scientist at Boston College who maintains the political blog Honest Graft, argued that the forces behind Trump’s ascendancy are now firmly ensconced in the Republican infrastructure and information network. Because of this, a revival of the party’s pre-2016 establishment is unlikely. | David Hopkins, a political scientist at Boston College who maintains the political blog Honest Graft, argued that the forces behind Trump’s ascendancy are now firmly ensconced in the Republican infrastructure and information network. Because of this, a revival of the party’s pre-2016 establishment is unlikely. |
| As Hopkins wrote by email: | As Hopkins wrote by email: |
| In the event of a Trump loss, the conservative media, Hopkins continued, will undoubtedly | In the event of a Trump loss, the conservative media, Hopkins continued, will undoubtedly |
| Kay L. Schlozman, also a political scientist at Boston College, has a different analysis of the emergence of a Trump wing of the Republican Party: that Trump created the movement rather than the movement creating him. | Kay L. Schlozman, also a political scientist at Boston College, has a different analysis of the emergence of a Trump wing of the Republican Party: that Trump created the movement rather than the movement creating him. |
| In a party that is “more or less uniformly white and Christian and an increasingly masculine party,” Schlozman wrote by email, | In a party that is “more or less uniformly white and Christian and an increasingly masculine party,” Schlozman wrote by email, |
| Put another way: | Put another way: |
| Because of that, Schlozman wrote: | Because of that, Schlozman wrote: |
| Not only will the more extreme wing of the Republican survive for the foreseeable future, but in all likelihood both parties will continue to move away from the center, in opposite directions. | Not only will the more extreme wing of the Republican survive for the foreseeable future, but in all likelihood both parties will continue to move away from the center, in opposite directions. |
| Frank Baumgartner, a political scientist at the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill, wrote me: | Frank Baumgartner, a political scientist at the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill, wrote me: |
| In other words, the system is geared to push the two parties in opposite ideological directions, diminishing the ability of centrists to argue for more reasoned general election strategies. | In other words, the system is geared to push the two parties in opposite ideological directions, diminishing the ability of centrists to argue for more reasoned general election strategies. |
| These circumstances present no problem for Trump, should he win re-election; in fact, they reinforce the thrust of his governing style. Polarizing forces will, however, pose substantial difficulties for Biden if he wins, increasing the pressure on him to move left, even if such movement threatens Democratic prospects in 2022 and 2024. | These circumstances present no problem for Trump, should he win re-election; in fact, they reinforce the thrust of his governing style. Polarizing forces will, however, pose substantial difficulties for Biden if he wins, increasing the pressure on him to move left, even if such movement threatens Democratic prospects in 2022 and 2024. |
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