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| UK coronavirus live: hospitals 10 days away from 'critical' stage because of rising Covid cases, health minister says | UK coronavirus live: hospitals 10 days away from 'critical' stage because of rising Covid cases, health minister says |
| (30 minutes later) | |
| Latest updates: government warned people will seek ‘one last blow out’ if new restrictions on pubs in England are delayed until next week | Latest updates: government warned people will seek ‘one last blow out’ if new restrictions on pubs in England are delayed until next week |
| Earlier this week Donald Trump claimed on Twitter that in most populations coronavirus would be “far less lethal” than flu. | |
| That is probably a minority view in the UK - and probably in the US too - but this morning the Office for National Statistics has published a report that should settle the matter. It compares deaths from Covid with deaths from influenza and pneumonia, and coronavirus is easily the more lethal killer. It says: | |
| This means that in England and Wales (which the report covers) the death toll from flu (influenza) has been less than 1% of the death toll from coronavirus. Even if Trump was muddling flu with pneumonia (an understandable mistake - flu can cause pneumonia), he was still wrong. Deaths from pneumonia are less than a third of deaths from Covid. | |
| This is from Saul Caul, head of mortality analysis at the ONS. | |
| Nadine Dorries, the health minister, has said that hospital admissions are just 10 days away from reaching a “critical” stage because of rising coronavirus case numbers. | Nadine Dorries, the health minister, has said that hospital admissions are just 10 days away from reaching a “critical” stage because of rising coronavirus case numbers. |
| Yesterday Chris Hopson, chief executive of NHS Providers, which represents hospitals and other NHS trusts, said some hospitals in the north if England were now seeing admission levels equivalent to those in the spring, when the epidemic was at its peak. | Yesterday Chris Hopson, chief executive of NHS Providers, which represents hospitals and other NHS trusts, said some hospitals in the north if England were now seeing admission levels equivalent to those in the spring, when the epidemic was at its peak. |
| The World Trade Organization is set to be run by a woman for the first time in its 25-year history after it was announced that the final choice to be its new director-general will be between South Korea’s Yoo Myung-hee and Nigeria’s Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, my colleague Larry Elliott reports. | The World Trade Organization is set to be run by a woman for the first time in its 25-year history after it was announced that the final choice to be its new director-general will be between South Korea’s Yoo Myung-hee and Nigeria’s Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, my colleague Larry Elliott reports. |
| That means Liam Fox, the UK candidate and former international trade secretary, failed to make it to the final shortlist. He has posted this video saying he is disappointed. | That means Liam Fox, the UK candidate and former international trade secretary, failed to make it to the final shortlist. He has posted this video saying he is disappointed. |
| Some hours after details of likely new local lockdowns were leaked to newspapers, the government is to brief MPs representing constituencies in the Midlands and north of England. These MPs have been summoned to a video conference from 11.30am, which will be led by health minister Edward Argar. It’s fair to say that the MPs attending are hoping to hear both details and timelines – but are not completely optimistic they will. | Some hours after details of likely new local lockdowns were leaked to newspapers, the government is to brief MPs representing constituencies in the Midlands and north of England. These MPs have been summoned to a video conference from 11.30am, which will be led by health minister Edward Argar. It’s fair to say that the MPs attending are hoping to hear both details and timelines – but are not completely optimistic they will. |
| Prof Jason Leitch, Scotland’s national clinical director, told BBC Breakfast this morning that he hoped coronavirus case levels in Scotland would be falling in three weeks. Asked what would happen if there has been no change at the end of the 16-day indoor pub drinking ban starting on Friday in Scotland, Leitch said: | Prof Jason Leitch, Scotland’s national clinical director, told BBC Breakfast this morning that he hoped coronavirus case levels in Scotland would be falling in three weeks. Asked what would happen if there has been no change at the end of the 16-day indoor pub drinking ban starting on Friday in Scotland, Leitch said: |
| NHS England has released a slew of performance figures today - covering diagnostics, A&E attendances and admissions and the ambulance service. They show that the coronavirus pandemic continues to have a severe impact on the service. | NHS England has released a slew of performance figures today - covering diagnostics, A&E attendances and admissions and the ambulance service. They show that the coronavirus pandemic continues to have a severe impact on the service. |
| The backlog created by tests being cancelled means that waiting times for key diagnostic scans etc are now massively higher than they were a year ago. Waiting times for operations are also significantly higher than in 2019. | The backlog created by tests being cancelled means that waiting times for key diagnostic scans etc are now massively higher than they were a year ago. Waiting times for operations are also significantly higher than in 2019. |
| Meanwhile, the service is still not operating at the level is used to. Hospital operations, GP referrals and A&E attendance are all well below pre-Covid levels. | Meanwhile, the service is still not operating at the level is used to. Hospital operations, GP referrals and A&E attendance are all well below pre-Covid levels. |
| Here are the key figures. | Here are the key figures. |
| The number of patients in England waiting more than six weeks for a key diagnostic test is more than 10 times higher than it was a year ago, the figures show. In August a total of 472,088 patients were waiting for one of 15 standard tests, including an MRI scan, non-obstetric ultrasound or gastroscopy. The equivalent number waiting for more than six weeks in August 2019 was 42,926. | The number of patients in England waiting more than six weeks for a key diagnostic test is more than 10 times higher than it was a year ago, the figures show. In August a total of 472,088 patients were waiting for one of 15 standard tests, including an MRI scan, non-obstetric ultrasound or gastroscopy. The equivalent number waiting for more than six weeks in August 2019 was 42,926. |
| The number of patients waiting more than 13 weeks for a key diagnostic test in August was 239,920 - more than 40 times more than in August 2019 (5,284). | The number of patients waiting more than 13 weeks for a key diagnostic test in August was 239,920 - more than 40 times more than in August 2019 (5,284). |
| Almost 2m people had been waiting more than 18 weeks in August to start hospital treatment. The figure (1.96m) was around three times higher than the figure for August 2019 - but slightly down on the figure for July 2020 (2.15m). | Almost 2m people had been waiting more than 18 weeks in August to start hospital treatment. The figure (1.96m) was around three times higher than the figure for August 2019 - but slightly down on the figure for July 2020 (2.15m). |
| 111,026 people had been waiting more than a year in August to start hospital treatment - the highest monthly figure since September 2008. | 111,026 people had been waiting more than a year in August to start hospital treatment - the highest monthly figure since September 2008. |
| The number of people admitted for routine hospital treatment in hospitals in England in August was 155,789 - 43% down on the figure for August 2019. That 43% year-on-year decrease compares to a 55% on in July, and a 67% one in June. | The number of people admitted for routine hospital treatment in hospitals in England in August was 155,789 - 43% down on the figure for August 2019. That 43% year-on-year decrease compares to a 55% on in July, and a 67% one in June. |
| There were 169,660 urgent cancer referrals made by GPs in England in August 2020, down from 200,317 in August 2019 - a fall of 15%. | There were 169,660 urgent cancer referrals made by GPs in England in August 2020, down from 200,317 in August 2019 - a fall of 15%. |
| A total of 1.7m A&E attendances were recorded in September 2020, down 20% from 2.1m in September 2019. That 20% year-on-year fall in attendance compares with falls of 19% in August, 30% in July and 33% in June. | A total of 1.7m A&E attendances were recorded in September 2020, down 20% from 2.1m in September 2019. That 20% year-on-year fall in attendance compares with falls of 19% in August, 30% in July and 33% in June. |
| Emergency admissions to A&E were down 9% year-on-year, from 529,903 in September 2019 to 479,800 in September 2020. | Emergency admissions to A&E were down 9% year-on-year, from 529,903 in September 2019 to 479,800 in September 2020. |
| A hike in coronavirus fines and extending the places where face coverings are mandatory will be considered by Stormont ministers later. As PA Media reports, the justice minister, Naomi Long, is due to present the outcome of a rapid review into penalties and enforcement of the Covid-19 regulations at this afternoon’s executive meeting. | A hike in coronavirus fines and extending the places where face coverings are mandatory will be considered by Stormont ministers later. As PA Media reports, the justice minister, Naomi Long, is due to present the outcome of a rapid review into penalties and enforcement of the Covid-19 regulations at this afternoon’s executive meeting. |
| It is understood a proposal to increase the fine that accompanies a fixed-penalty notice for a rule breach from £60 to £200. The executive office is also due to present proposals around extending the public settings where face coverings should be mandatory. If agreed, this would see the law widened to cover places such as office spaces, banks and building societies. Coverings are already mandatory in shops and on public transport. | It is understood a proposal to increase the fine that accompanies a fixed-penalty notice for a rule breach from £60 to £200. The executive office is also due to present proposals around extending the public settings where face coverings should be mandatory. If agreed, this would see the law widened to cover places such as office spaces, banks and building societies. Coverings are already mandatory in shops and on public transport. |
| The meeting at Stormont comes as Northern Ireland continues to experience rocketing coronavirus infection rates. | The meeting at Stormont comes as Northern Ireland continues to experience rocketing coronavirus infection rates. |
| Steve Rotheram, the Labour mayor of Liverpool city region, has now issued this statement saying it is “deeply disappointing” that he is having to find out about new restrictions facing Merseyside from the newspapers. (See 10.14am.) | Steve Rotheram, the Labour mayor of Liverpool city region, has now issued this statement saying it is “deeply disappointing” that he is having to find out about new restrictions facing Merseyside from the newspapers. (See 10.14am.) |
| We have not had confirmation from the government yet as to what is planned for England next week, but there is a lot of reporting in the papers this morning all pointing in the same direction. | We have not had confirmation from the government yet as to what is planned for England next week, but there is a lot of reporting in the papers this morning all pointing in the same direction. |
| The Times today (paywall) is saying that pubs and restaurants in the north of England will be closed on Monday. It says: | The Times today (paywall) is saying that pubs and restaurants in the north of England will be closed on Monday. It says: |
| And the Sun gives this explantation of how the new, simplified three-tier system of restrictions may work. | And the Sun gives this explantation of how the new, simplified three-tier system of restrictions may work. |
| Boris Johnson spoke to President Trump yesterday. We haven’t had a readout from No 10, but Trump has tweeted about the call. | Boris Johnson spoke to President Trump yesterday. We haven’t had a readout from No 10, but Trump has tweeted about the call. |
| The outcry over the nationwide crackdown on indoor drinking in Scotland – where the central belt of the country now has the toughest restrictions in the whole of the UK – continues this morning, with industry bodies warning that the measures will devastate the sector. | The outcry over the nationwide crackdown on indoor drinking in Scotland – where the central belt of the country now has the toughest restrictions in the whole of the UK – continues this morning, with industry bodies warning that the measures will devastate the sector. |
| Nick Wood of the Scottish Hospitality Group told BBC Radio Scotland: “I think we’re being used as a scapegoat. The proof isn’t there but we are the ones being blamed.” | Nick Wood of the Scottish Hospitality Group told BBC Radio Scotland: “I think we’re being used as a scapegoat. The proof isn’t there but we are the ones being blamed.” |
| Although Nicola Sturgeon said in her statement to Holyrood yesterday that one in five people contacted by test and trace had visited a hospitality setting, Wood said that bars and restaurants had been working hard and invested heavily to maintain controlled and hygienic environments. | Although Nicola Sturgeon said in her statement to Holyrood yesterday that one in five people contacted by test and trace had visited a hospitality setting, Wood said that bars and restaurants had been working hard and invested heavily to maintain controlled and hygienic environments. |
| James Rusk, owner of the Butchershop Bar and Grill in Glasgow, said that bringing in such severe restrictions without consultation had caused “fear and panic”. He pointed out that the effects would be felt more widely. | James Rusk, owner of the Butchershop Bar and Grill in Glasgow, said that bringing in such severe restrictions without consultation had caused “fear and panic”. He pointed out that the effects would be felt more widely. |
| But deputy first minister John Swinney, also speaking on Good Morning Scotland, said that the Scottish government had “dug deep” to provide a £40m support fund for hospitality. “We have to take action to stop the opportunities for interaction where the virus can spread.” | But deputy first minister John Swinney, also speaking on Good Morning Scotland, said that the Scottish government had “dug deep” to provide a £40m support fund for hospitality. “We have to take action to stop the opportunities for interaction where the virus can spread.” |
| Asked if it didn’t make more sense to enforce household visiting restrictions, Swinney said there was a real risk of the virus accelerating to a point similar to where it had been in March and a multi-pronged approach was needed. | Asked if it didn’t make more sense to enforce household visiting restrictions, Swinney said there was a real risk of the virus accelerating to a point similar to where it had been in March and a multi-pronged approach was needed. |
| Swinney said that Sturgeon’s statement yesterday had also included a warning to the retail sector to enforce 2 metre distancing, which had become more relaxed in recent months. | Swinney said that Sturgeon’s statement yesterday had also included a warning to the retail sector to enforce 2 metre distancing, which had become more relaxed in recent months. |
| Asked about those who had already booked holidays for the October school break, Swinney said: “Yes, all holiday plans can take their course, but people must exercise the greatest of care.” | Asked about those who had already booked holidays for the October school break, Swinney said: “Yes, all holiday plans can take their course, but people must exercise the greatest of care.” |
| Robert Jenrick, the communities secretary, was doing the morning interview round for the government this morning. As my colleague Josh Halliday reports, he admitted that so far local restrictions have only had a limited effect. | Robert Jenrick, the communities secretary, was doing the morning interview round for the government this morning. As my colleague Josh Halliday reports, he admitted that so far local restrictions have only had a limited effect. |
| Jenrick refused to confirm that new restrictions would be imposed on Monday. Asked about the government’s plans, he just said: | Jenrick refused to confirm that new restrictions would be imposed on Monday. Asked about the government’s plans, he just said: |
| But Jenrick did signal that the government would announce extra financial support for the hospitality sector alongside any new measures. Asked about pubs and restaurants, he said: | But Jenrick did signal that the government would announce extra financial support for the hospitality sector alongside any new measures. Asked about pubs and restaurants, he said: |
| Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, and David Mellen, the Nottingham city council leader, are not the only local government leaders angry about lack of consultation from the government over lockdown measures. (See 9.35am.) This is from Dan Jarvis, the Labour MP and Sheffield city region mayor. | Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, and David Mellen, the Nottingham city council leader, are not the only local government leaders angry about lack of consultation from the government over lockdown measures. (See 9.35am.) This is from Dan Jarvis, the Labour MP and Sheffield city region mayor. |
| Steve Rotheram, the Labour mayor of Liverpool city region, told Good Morning Britain this morning that there was “an ever widening north-south divide” in what was happening and that he was concerned that the north was being treated like “a petri dish for experimentation”. | Steve Rotheram, the Labour mayor of Liverpool city region, told Good Morning Britain this morning that there was “an ever widening north-south divide” in what was happening and that he was concerned that the north was being treated like “a petri dish for experimentation”. |
| And Nick Forbes, the Labour leader of Newcastle city council, issued a statement last night saying that, instead of being offered partnership from central government, northern cities were instead getting “diktats announced without notice”. | And Nick Forbes, the Labour leader of Newcastle city council, issued a statement last night saying that, instead of being offered partnership from central government, northern cities were instead getting “diktats announced without notice”. |
| Good morning. Ministers are getting read to announce new restrictions in England, which could see pubs forced to shut in the areas with the highest rates of coronavirus, but it is being reported that the measures may not take effect until next week and this has only fuelled the anger that local leaders already feel about how the government is handling this. Nottingham, which now has the fifth highest Covid rate in England, was expecting new restrictions today. But David Mellen, the Labour council leader, told the Today programme that he now thought they would not happen until next week. | Good morning. Ministers are getting read to announce new restrictions in England, which could see pubs forced to shut in the areas with the highest rates of coronavirus, but it is being reported that the measures may not take effect until next week and this has only fuelled the anger that local leaders already feel about how the government is handling this. Nottingham, which now has the fifth highest Covid rate in England, was expecting new restrictions today. But David Mellen, the Labour council leader, told the Today programme that he now thought they would not happen until next week. |
| He also said this meant there was a danger that people might treat this weekend as a chance to party because of the delay. Asked if he feared residents might have “one last blowout”, he replied: | He also said this meant there was a danger that people might treat this weekend as a chance to party because of the delay. Asked if he feared residents might have “one last blowout”, he replied: |
| Mellen is not the only local leader who is furious. Last night, responding to a report in the Times saying pubs in the north of England would be forced to close on Monday, Andy Burnham, the Labour mayor of Greater Manchester, said the government was “impossible to deal with”. | Mellen is not the only local leader who is furious. Last night, responding to a report in the Times saying pubs in the north of England would be forced to close on Monday, Andy Burnham, the Labour mayor of Greater Manchester, said the government was “impossible to deal with”. |
| Here is the agenda for the day. | Here is the agenda for the day. |
| 9.30am: The ONS is due to publish reports comparing Covid deaths with flu deaths, looking at Covid and the non-UK workforce, and the economic impact of the crisis. | 9.30am: The ONS is due to publish reports comparing Covid deaths with flu deaths, looking at Covid and the non-UK workforce, and the economic impact of the crisis. |
| 10.30am: Jacob Rees-Mogg, the leader of the Commons, makes a Commons statement on next week’s business. | 10.30am: Jacob Rees-Mogg, the leader of the Commons, makes a Commons statement on next week’s business. |
| 11am: NHS Test and Trace is due to publish its latest performance figures. | 11am: NHS Test and Trace is due to publish its latest performance figures. |
| Around 11.30am: MPs begin a general debate on the government’s plans to reform the planning system. More than 50 MPs are due to speak, many of whom are unhappy about the proposals. | Around 11.30am: MPs begin a general debate on the government’s plans to reform the planning system. More than 50 MPs are due to speak, many of whom are unhappy about the proposals. |
| 12pm: Downing Street holds its lobby briefing. | 12pm: Downing Street holds its lobby briefing. |
| Politics Live has been doubling up as the UK coronavirus live blog for some time and, given the way the Covid crisis eclipses everything, this will continue for the foreseeable future. But we will be covering non-Covid political stories too, and where they seem more important and interesting, they will take precedence. | Politics Live has been doubling up as the UK coronavirus live blog for some time and, given the way the Covid crisis eclipses everything, this will continue for the foreseeable future. But we will be covering non-Covid political stories too, and where they seem more important and interesting, they will take precedence. |
| Here is our global coronavirus live blog. | Here is our global coronavirus live blog. |
| I try to monitor the comments below the line (BTL) but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and reply above the line (ATL), although I can’t promise to do this for everyone. | I try to monitor the comments below the line (BTL) but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and reply above the line (ATL), although I can’t promise to do this for everyone. |
| If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter. I’m on @AndrewSparrow. | If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter. I’m on @AndrewSparrow. |