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What Is Brexit? And How Is It Going? What Is Brexit? And How Is It Going?
(2 months later)
Britain broke from the European Union’s regulatory orbit on Jan. 1, casting off nearly half a century inside the bloc and embarking on what analysts described as the biggest overnight change in modern commercial relations. Britain broke from the European Union’s regulatory orbit on Jan. 1, casting off nearly a half-century inside the bloc and embarking on what analysts described as the biggest overnight change in modern commercial relations between countries.
Far from closing the book on Britain’s tumultuous relationship with the rest of Europe, the split, known as Brexit, has opened a new chapter — one that could reshape not only the country’s economy, foreign policy and politics, but even its borders.Far from closing the book on Britain’s tumultuous relationship with the rest of Europe, the split, known as Brexit, has opened a new chapter — one that could reshape not only the country’s economy, foreign policy and politics, but even its borders.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson now speaks of creating a more agile “Global Britain,” with stronger ties with the United States and other democracies like Australia, India and South Korea. Prime Minister Boris Johnson speaks of creating a more agile “Global Britain,” with stronger ties to the United States and other democracies, like Australia, India and South Korea.
But while that plan is barely getting started, risks from the new dispensation have already become evident, in forms as small as a ham sandwich confiscated from a truck driver and as large as a naval confrontation in the English Channel. But while that plan has hit setbacks, risks from the new dispensation have quickly become evident, including on empty supermarket shelves as the country struggles with a shortage of truck drivers.
And arrangements for the sensitive territory of Northern Ireland have fueled rioting and diplomatic tensions, both of which may yet flare up more fiercely. And arrangements for the sensitive territory of Northern Ireland have fueled rioting and diplomatic tensions.
Why “Brexit?” Why “Brexit”?
A portmanteau of the words Britain and exit, Brexit caught on as shorthand for the proposal that Britain leave the European Union and change its relationship to the bloc on trade, security and migration. A portmanteau of the words Britain and exit, Brexit caught on as shorthand for the proposal that Britain leave the European Union and change its relationship with the bloc on trade, security and migration.
Britain has debated the pros and cons of a club of European nations almost since the idea was broached, after World War II. It finally joined in 1973 — and held a referendum on whether to leave less than three years later. Then, 67 percent of voters supported staying.Britain has debated the pros and cons of a club of European nations almost since the idea was broached, after World War II. It finally joined in 1973 — and held a referendum on whether to leave less than three years later. Then, 67 percent of voters supported staying.
But that was hardly the end of the argument.But that was hardly the end of the argument.
In 2013, Prime Minister David Cameron promised a new national referendum. The options were “remain” or “leave,” and Mr. Cameron was convinced that “remain” would win easily.In 2013, Prime Minister David Cameron promised a new national referendum. The options were “remain” or “leave,” and Mr. Cameron was convinced that “remain” would win easily.
That turned out to be a serious miscalculation. But by the time of the vote on June 23, 2016, a refugee crisis had made migration a subject of political rage across Europe.
As voters in Britain went to the polls on June 23, 2016, a refugee crisis had made migration a subject of political rage across Europe.
After an acrimonious campaign, in which the “leave” side was criticized as pushing misleading and contradictory messages and later accused of breaking election rules, withdrawal from the European Union emerged with the support of 52 percent of voters.After an acrimonious campaign, in which the “leave” side was criticized as pushing misleading and contradictory messages and later accused of breaking election rules, withdrawal from the European Union emerged with the support of 52 percent of voters.
Europe has been Britain’s most important export market and its biggest source of foreign investment, and E.U. membership helped London cement its position as a global financial center.Europe has been Britain’s most important export market and its biggest source of foreign investment, and E.U. membership helped London cement its position as a global financial center.
British companies have long been able to move goods to and from the European Union without taxes or tariffs. People could move freely, too. For decades, British companies could move goods to and from the European Union without taxes or tariffs. People could move freely, too.
But as 2021 began, business changed for many — for example, automakers, who rely on suppliers across Europe, and touring musicians, who suddenly faced a thicket of visa rules. But as 2021 began, business changed for many — including British automakers, who rely on suppliers across Europe, and touring musicians, who suddenly faced a thicket of visa rules.
The agreement that Britain and Brussels reached late in 2020 avoided tariffs or quotas on goods. But traders still confronted new paperwork and unpredictable delays, sometimes resulting in rotting cargoes. The agreement that London and Brussels reached late in 2020 avoided tariffs or quotas on goods. But traders still confronted new paperwork and unpredictable delays, sometimes resulting in rotting cargoes.
And the services sector — about 80 percent or more of British economic activity, comprising not only the financial industry, but also lawyers, architects, consultants and others — was left dependent on patchwork decisions by European regulators.And the services sector — about 80 percent or more of British economic activity, comprising not only the financial industry, but also lawyers, architects, consultants and others — was left dependent on patchwork decisions by European regulators.
Britain’s national statistics agency has reported signs of an initial drop in goods trading with the bloc, and the Office for Budget Responsibility, another independent official body, has estimated that the country’s economy will be 4 percent less productive than it would have been inside the European Union.Britain’s national statistics agency has reported signs of an initial drop in goods trading with the bloc, and the Office for Budget Responsibility, another independent official body, has estimated that the country’s economy will be 4 percent less productive than it would have been inside the European Union.
Opponents of Brexit tend to think of it as an attempt to reclaim an imagined Britain of the past, one with fewer European migrants and more patriotic singing. But Mr. Johnson, like many prominent proponents, often presents it as a way of embracing change. Opponents of Brexit describe it as an attempt to reclaim an imagined Britain of the past, one with fewer European migrants and more patriotic singing. But Mr. Johnson, like many prominent proponents, often presents it as a way of embracing change.
Outside the E.U. single market, with its shared regulations, Britain can set rules to encourage innovation, although the deal permits either side to seek redress for regulatory changes that might create an unfair advantage.Outside the E.U. single market, with its shared regulations, Britain can set rules to encourage innovation, although the deal permits either side to seek redress for regulatory changes that might create an unfair advantage.
Outside the E.U. customs union, with its common tariffs, Britain can seek its own trade deals with countries like India and the United States. It signed a major trade deal with Australia in June. Outside the bloc’s customs union, with its common tariffs, Britain can seek trade deals with countries such as India and the United States. It signed a major trade deal with Australia in June.
Some Brexit supporters also argue that ending free migration for E.U. citizens will allow more flexibility for others — a case that resonated in British Asian communities during the referendum campaign. When China imposed a security law on Hong Kong last year, Mr. Johnson offered British residency rights to three million people in the city, though without helping them leave. Some Brexit supporters also argue that ending free migration for European Union citizens will allow more flexibility for others — a case that resonated in British Asian communities during the referendum campaign. When China imposed a security law last year on Hong Kong, Mr. Johnson offered British residency rights to three million people in the city, though without helping them leave.
Brexit supporters often cite Britain’s rapid Covid-19 vaccination program as an example of what they hoped for. It was shaped by a biotechnology venture capitalist, though most of her work was done while the country still operated under E.U. rules, during the 11 months between its formal departure in January 2020 and the finalizing of new trade terms. A British agreement alongside the United States in September to help Australia deploy nuclear submarines was hailed by Brexit supporters as a success for the new approach, especially because it upset an Australian defense deal with France.
Most benefits of a “Global Britain” so far remain at best theoretical. The Office for Budget Responsibility has said it expects little effect from new trade deals, and Mr. Johnson’s attempt to show diplomatic dynamism at a Group of 7 summit in Cornwall, England, in June was marred by arguments over Northern Ireland. But most benefits of a Global Britain so far remain theoretical. The Office for Budget Responsibility has said it expects little effect from new trade deals, and Mr. Johnson’s attempt to show diplomatic dynamism at a summer Group of 7 summit in England was marred by arguments over Northern Ireland.
Northern Ireland, which is part of the United Kingdom, has the country’s only land border with the European Union — the politically sensitive 310-mile frontier with Ireland. Northern Ireland, which is part of the United Kingdom, has the country’s only land border with the European Union — the politically delicate 310-mile frontier with the Republic of Ireland.
Thousands died in decades of sectarian strife there before a peace process in the 1990s, and both sides in the Brexit talks made it a priority to avoid reimposing border checks. They struck a deal that the region would keep following many European rules, so trucks could cross the Irish border freely, with new paperwork for goods moving between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom.Thousands died in decades of sectarian strife there before a peace process in the 1990s, and both sides in the Brexit talks made it a priority to avoid reimposing border checks. They struck a deal that the region would keep following many European rules, so trucks could cross the Irish border freely, with new paperwork for goods moving between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom.
The changes have prompted British companies to limit distribution there. Britain has unilaterally delayed some checks, triggering legal action from Brussels. The changes have prompted British companies to limit distribution there. Britain has indefinitely delayed some checks, as part of a back-and-forth that led Brussels to begin and then later suspend legal action.
The situation has contributed to a rise in sectarian tension, with outbreaks of rioting among communities that favor remaining part of the United Kingdom. Further violence is feared. The situation has contributed to a rise in sectarian tension, with outbreaks of rioting in the spring.
Mr. Johnson had tense exchanges on the subject with President Emmanuel Macron of France at the Group of 7 summit in June, where President Biden is also said to have raised it privately. Mr. Johnson had tense exchanges on the subject with President Emmanuel Macron of France at the Group of 7 summit, where President Biden is also said to have raised it privately.
In July, Mr. Johnson said this part of the Brexit agreement, known as the Northern Ireland protocol, could create so many problems that it might have to be abandoned if it could not be rewritten. European officials said they would seek creative solutions but would not renegotiate. The prime minister has said that this part of the Brexit agreement, known as the Northern Ireland protocol, might have to be abandoned if it cannot be rewritten. European officials said they would seek creative solutions but would not renegotiate.
Along with Northern Ireland, Scotland rejected Brexit in the 2016 referendum, with a vote of more than 60 percent to remain in the European Union. That stark divergence of opinion has shaken the far older union between England and Scotland.Along with Northern Ireland, Scotland rejected Brexit in the 2016 referendum, with a vote of more than 60 percent to remain in the European Union. That stark divergence of opinion has shaken the far older union between England and Scotland.
Scots voted against independence from Britain in a 2014 referendum, but the pro-independence Scottish National Party has dominated the Scottish Parliament for more than a decade. It has promised to legislate for a rerun, with Brexit as its justification. A reversal would cost Britain 8 percent of its population, a third of its landmass and significant international prestige. Scots voted against independence from Britain in a 2014 referendum, but the pro-independence Scottish National Party, or S.N.P., has dominated the Scottish Parliament for more than a decade. It has promised to legislate for a rerun, with Brexit as its justification. A reversal would cost Britain 8 percent of its population, a third of its landmass and significant international prestige.
For a new referendum to be legal, however, it would almost certainly need the agreement of London, and Mr. Johnson has repeatedly said no. Scottish elections in May left the S.N.P. one seat short of a majority, but it has support from smaller pro-independence parties. If neither side backs down, the result could be a court battle, or even a constitutional crisis.For a new referendum to be legal, however, it would almost certainly need the agreement of London, and Mr. Johnson has repeatedly said no. Scottish elections in May left the S.N.P. one seat short of a majority, but it has support from smaller pro-independence parties. If neither side backs down, the result could be a court battle, or even a constitutional crisis.
Britain’s fishing fleet is a small fraction of the size it reached in the middle of the last century — a decline for which Brexit proponents have long blamed E.U. rules on sharing access to fisheries.Britain’s fishing fleet is a small fraction of the size it reached in the middle of the last century — a decline for which Brexit proponents have long blamed E.U. rules on sharing access to fisheries.
The British government cast its split from the European Union as a chance to revive an industry that was also a storied way of life.The British government cast its split from the European Union as a chance to revive an industry that was also a storied way of life.
In the trade deal negotiations, both sides had to compromise: E.U. boats will keep more fishing rights in British waters than Britain had demanded, but over a shorter period than Brussels had called for. Tensions are already re-emerging.In the trade deal negotiations, both sides had to compromise: E.U. boats will keep more fishing rights in British waters than Britain had demanded, but over a shorter period than Brussels had called for. Tensions are already re-emerging.
British fishing companies have long sold much of their catch in E.U. countries. Some seafood exporters say that they could be driven out of business by the added post-Brexit bureaucracy.British fishing companies have long sold much of their catch in E.U. countries. Some seafood exporters say that they could be driven out of business by the added post-Brexit bureaucracy.
On the European side, French fishing boats briefly mounted a protest blockade in May over new fishing rules set by the semiautonomous island of Jersey. Britain sent two Royal Navy ships in response.On the European side, French fishing boats briefly mounted a protest blockade in May over new fishing rules set by the semiautonomous island of Jersey. Britain sent two Royal Navy ships in response.
For bankers, traders, truckers, architects and millions of migrants, the Dec. 24 trade agreement was only the beginning of a high-stakes and unpredictable experiment.For bankers, traders, truckers, architects and millions of migrants, the Dec. 24 trade agreement was only the beginning of a high-stakes and unpredictable experiment.
Britain has been short of customs agents to deal with the tens of millions of declarations now needed, industry experts said. It has delayed some of its own new border checks until 2022. Britain has been short of customs agents to deal with the tens of millions of declarations now needed, industry experts said. It has repeatedly delayed some of its own new border checks, with several deadlines pushed to July 2022.
In the four years after Britain’s referendum, the number of Europeans migrating to the country for work plunged, and British companies sent employees to Paris and Frankfurt to set up toeholds on the continent. The number of jobs that will be relocated, or created in different places, is still becoming clear. In the four years after Britain’s referendum, the number of Europeans migrating to the country for work plunged, and British companies sent employees to Paris, Dublin or Frankfurt. The number of jobs that will be relocated, or created in different places, is still becoming clear.
So is the future of some E.U. citizens in Britain. More than more two million have been granted “settled status,” the right to stay indefinitely. But applications closed at the end of June, and the process has made few provisions for those unable to complete it online, much less for those who don’t realize they need permission to stay somewhere they have lived for decades. But already, many British businesses say they are struggling to fill positions that might once have been taken by E.U. workers, presenting a risk to Britain’s pandemic recovery. A lack of truck drivers, echoed in other countries but exacerbated by Brexit, has caused passing shortages of a bewildering range of items including Nando’s chicken and Haribo sweets.
And the future of some E.U. citizens in Britain remains uncertain. More than two million have been granted “settled status,” the right to stay indefinitely. But applications closed at the end of June, and the process has made few provisions for those unable to complete it online, much less for those who don’t realize they need permission to stay somewhere they have lived for decades.
Stephen Castle and Mark Landler contributed reporting.Stephen Castle and Mark Landler contributed reporting.