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| New UK Covid variant may be 30% more deadly, says PM | New UK Covid variant may be 30% more deadly, says PM |
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| Boris Johnson says B117 may increase death rate as well as being up to 70% more transmissible | Boris Johnson says B117 may increase death rate as well as being up to 70% more transmissible |
| A new variant of Covid-19 that emerged in south-east England late last year and spread around the world may be more deadly than the coronavirus in circulation in the first wave of the epidemic, Boris Johnson has said. | A new variant of Covid-19 that emerged in south-east England late last year and spread around the world may be more deadly than the coronavirus in circulation in the first wave of the epidemic, Boris Johnson has said. |
| Scientists on the government’s New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag) have concluded that the new variant, named B117, may increase the death rate by 30-40%. | |
| The variant is also believed to be 30-70% more transmissible. There had been hopes it would become less deadly as it evolved, as has been seen with some other viruses. | The variant is also believed to be 30-70% more transmissible. There had been hopes it would become less deadly as it evolved, as has been seen with some other viruses. |
| One expert warned that the increased lethality of the variant, confirmed by the prime minister at the No 10 press briefing on Friday, could take the UK “back to square one”. | One expert warned that the increased lethality of the variant, confirmed by the prime minister at the No 10 press briefing on Friday, could take the UK “back to square one”. |
| Four teams of researchers at Imperial College London, the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Public Health England and Exeter University assessed the variant’s lethality by comparing death rates among those who tested positive for the new variant with those who were infected with older variants. | Four teams of researchers at Imperial College London, the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Public Health England and Exeter University assessed the variant’s lethality by comparing death rates among those who tested positive for the new variant with those who were infected with older variants. |
| “When we look at those who tested positive, there’s evidence of an increased risk for those who have the new variant, compared with those who had the old virus,” Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief science adviser, said. | “When we look at those who tested positive, there’s evidence of an increased risk for those who have the new variant, compared with those who had the old virus,” Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief science adviser, said. |
| He said the increase in risk was unclear, but that for 60-year-old men the death rate appeared to rise from 10 in 1,000 cases to 13 to 14 per 1,000 cases. “There is a lot of uncertainty around these numbers and we need more work to get a precise handle on it, but it is a concern,” Vallance added. | |
| “There is no preferential age, it can affect anybody at any age, similarly to the original variant, the original virus.” | “There is no preferential age, it can affect anybody at any age, similarly to the original variant, the original virus.” |
| The prime minister’s press conference heard that there was good evidence of vaccines continuing to work against the variant. | The prime minister’s press conference heard that there was good evidence of vaccines continuing to work against the variant. |
| The new variant was first spotted in Kent on 20 September and linked to the sharp rise in cases in the south and east of England during the November lockdown. | The new variant was first spotted in Kent on 20 September and linked to the sharp rise in cases in the south and east of England during the November lockdown. |
| Dr David Strain, a senior clinical lecturer at the University of Exeter Medical School, said the possibility that the new UK variant was not only more contagious but also more deadly than previous variants was worrying. | |
| “The key fact here is that all of the good work that’s been done with [the drug] dexamethasone and is being done with better treatments strategies has reduced the mortality in the UK by about a third. [If the new mortality figure is correct that] has now been lost and we are back to square one, we are back to where we were the first time around,” he said. | “The key fact here is that all of the good work that’s been done with [the drug] dexamethasone and is being done with better treatments strategies has reduced the mortality in the UK by about a third. [If the new mortality figure is correct that] has now been lost and we are back to square one, we are back to where we were the first time around,” he said. |
| Gabriel Scally, visiting professor of public health at the University of Bristol, said the latest information emphasised the need to increase efforts to prevent the emergence of new variants both through reducing coronavirus cases and preventing new variants from entering the country. “We can’t go on having these variants coming at us like this, so we do need to do something stop them,” he said. | Gabriel Scally, visiting professor of public health at the University of Bristol, said the latest information emphasised the need to increase efforts to prevent the emergence of new variants both through reducing coronavirus cases and preventing new variants from entering the country. “We can’t go on having these variants coming at us like this, so we do need to do something stop them,” he said. |
| Prof Andrew Hayward, director of the UCL Institute of Epidemiology and Health Care, who has attended Sage meetings, said the finding showed how important it was to ensure the current lockdown restrictions were as effective as possible while vaccines were rolled out. | Prof Andrew Hayward, director of the UCL Institute of Epidemiology and Health Care, who has attended Sage meetings, said the finding showed how important it was to ensure the current lockdown restrictions were as effective as possible while vaccines were rolled out. |
| “The groups who are at highest risk of infection now are those who cannot afford to work from home. There needs to be more done to enable more people to stay at home without losing out financially and to expand regular testing to those who need to continue to work, combined with measures to support self-isolation if positive,” he said. | “The groups who are at highest risk of infection now are those who cannot afford to work from home. There needs to be more done to enable more people to stay at home without losing out financially and to expand regular testing to those who need to continue to work, combined with measures to support self-isolation if positive,” he said. |
| “Although rates are coming down slowly we still have amongst the highest rates of infection and death in the world.” | “Although rates are coming down slowly we still have amongst the highest rates of infection and death in the world.” |