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| Existing climate model simulations overestimate future sea-level rise by up to 25%, new study shows | Existing climate model simulations overestimate future sea-level rise by up to 25%, new study shows |
| (about 1 month later) | |
| Scientists from Utrecht University using the national supercomputer at SURFsara in Amsterdam have found that the projected sea-level rise over the next century is about 25% lower than current models predict. | Scientists from Utrecht University using the national supercomputer at SURFsara in Amsterdam have found that the projected sea-level rise over the next century is about 25% lower than current models predict. |
| Their new, higher-resolution climate model simulation reveals a slower ocean temperature increase than predicted by current models. The reason for this comes courtesy of ocean eddy processes, which were left out of many, lower-resolution models which inform public policy today. | Their new, higher-resolution climate model simulation reveals a slower ocean temperature increase than predicted by current models. The reason for this comes courtesy of ocean eddy processes, which were left out of many, lower-resolution models which inform public policy today. |
| The climate models involve vast amounts of data from numerous sources which are constantly being updated for accuracy with the help of higher-resolution data. | The climate models involve vast amounts of data from numerous sources which are constantly being updated for accuracy with the help of higher-resolution data. |
| The new model factors in these ocean eddy processes which have a remarkable effect on the melting rate of the Antarctic ice sheet, one of the key drivers of ocean-level rise across the world. | The new model factors in these ocean eddy processes which have a remarkable effect on the melting rate of the Antarctic ice sheet, one of the key drivers of ocean-level rise across the world. |
| An eddy is a large (10-200 km) turbulent system in the ocean circulation which distributes both heat and salt. By factoring them in, the Utrecht team created what they say is a more accurate representation of ocean temperatures around Antarctica, and thus the rate of melt in the ice sheet. | An eddy is a large (10-200 km) turbulent system in the ocean circulation which distributes both heat and salt. By factoring them in, the Utrecht team created what they say is a more accurate representation of ocean temperatures around Antarctica, and thus the rate of melt in the ice sheet. |
| While existing climate models predict increasing ocean temperatures around Antarctica, with the higher resolution simulation, in certain areas at least, the opposite was found to be true; some regions are, in fact, cooling. | While existing climate models predict increasing ocean temperatures around Antarctica, with the higher resolution simulation, in certain areas at least, the opposite was found to be true; some regions are, in fact, cooling. |
| “These regions appear to be more resilient under climate change,” says Utrecht Ph.D. candidate René van Westen. | “These regions appear to be more resilient under climate change,” says Utrecht Ph.D. candidate René van Westen. |
| “One obtains a very different temperature response due to ocean-eddy effects,” adds professor Henk Dijkstra. | “One obtains a very different temperature response due to ocean-eddy effects,” adds professor Henk Dijkstra. |
| Their model predicts dramatically smaller Antarctic mass loss as a result of ice-shelf melt; Just one third compared with current predictions. | Their model predicts dramatically smaller Antarctic mass loss as a result of ice-shelf melt; Just one third compared with current predictions. |
| This shift in estimates theoretically reduces the projected global sea-level rise by 25% over the coming century. | This shift in estimates theoretically reduces the projected global sea-level rise by 25% over the coming century. |
| “Although sea levels will continue to rise, this is good news for low-lying regions,” Van Westen says. | “Although sea levels will continue to rise, this is good news for low-lying regions,” Van Westen says. |
| Think your friends would be interested? Share this story! | Think your friends would be interested? Share this story! |