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Brazil's consuming desire for status Brazil's consuming desire for status
(41 minutes later)
By Robert Plummer Business reporter, BBC NewsBy Robert Plummer Business reporter, BBC News
Back in the late 1990s, Brazil's Pao de Acucar supermarket chain relaunched itself with a slogan that still speaks volumes about the country's aspirations to be a global power.Back in the late 1990s, Brazil's Pao de Acucar supermarket chain relaunched itself with a slogan that still speaks volumes about the country's aspirations to be a global power.
Even supermarkets bear witness to Brazil's hunger for acceptanceEven supermarkets bear witness to Brazil's hunger for acceptance
Henceforth, the company said, its biggest outlets, mainly in Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, would be "supermarkets worthy of the First World".Henceforth, the company said, its biggest outlets, mainly in Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, would be "supermarkets worthy of the First World".
This turned out to mean that they were open 24 hours a day, six days a week (the exception being Sunday, the day when you are most likely to run short of groceries).This turned out to mean that they were open 24 hours a day, six days a week (the exception being Sunday, the day when you are most likely to run short of groceries).
In fact, the one thing that was really reminiscent of the developed world was Pao de Acucar's pricing policy. Local corner shops were often considerably cheaper.In fact, the one thing that was really reminiscent of the developed world was Pao de Acucar's pricing policy. Local corner shops were often considerably cheaper.
But the glamour of the "First World" pledge appealed to middle-class consumers with money to burn.But the glamour of the "First World" pledge appealed to middle-class consumers with money to burn.
It caught the mood of a country that was busy burying its legacy of military rule and hyperinflation, while looking for a new role on the world stage.It caught the mood of a country that was busy burying its legacy of military rule and hyperinflation, while looking for a new role on the world stage.
Image issuesImage issues
More than a decade later, Brazil has found that role as one of the Bric countries, grouped together in a handy acronym with Russia, India and China as one of the world's biggest emerging economies.More than a decade later, Brazil has found that role as one of the Bric countries, grouped together in a handy acronym with Russia, India and China as one of the world's biggest emerging economies.
However, the Brics all want to do different things with their greater economic clout - assuming, that is, they survive the global recession in relatively good condition.However, the Brics all want to do different things with their greater economic clout - assuming, that is, they survive the global recession in relatively good condition.
For Russia and China, secure in their status as members of the UN Security Council, their new status offers another way of fending off outsiders' attempts to intervene in their internal affairs. For Russia and China, secure in their status as members of the UN Security Council, it offers another way of fending off outsiders' attempts to intervene in their internal affairs.
Lula is still making an impact on the world stageLula is still making an impact on the world stage
Brazil, which continues to dream of a Security Council seat, is much more sensitive to concerns about how it is perceived abroad.Brazil, which continues to dream of a Security Council seat, is much more sensitive to concerns about how it is perceived abroad.
But given the international attention currently being lavished on Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, no-one can accuse him of not doing his bit to uphold the country's prestige.But given the international attention currently being lavished on Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, no-one can accuse him of not doing his bit to uphold the country's prestige.
At the G20 summit in London, no less a luminary than US President Barack Obama described his Brazilian counterpart as "the most popular politician on Earth".At the G20 summit in London, no less a luminary than US President Barack Obama described his Brazilian counterpart as "the most popular politician on Earth".
And although Brazil has had its share of assistance from the International Monetary Fund in the past, Lula came away from the G20 gathering determined to position his country as an IMF creditor, not a debtor.And although Brazil has had its share of assistance from the International Monetary Fund in the past, Lula came away from the G20 gathering determined to position his country as an IMF creditor, not a debtor.
According to the Brazilian financial press, Lula is prepared to commit $10bn to the IMF - a full 5% of Brazil's international reserves.According to the Brazilian financial press, Lula is prepared to commit $10bn to the IMF - a full 5% of Brazil's international reserves.
The same Brazilian press jubilantly points out that China allocated a mere 2% of its international reserves to support the IMF expansion agreed at the summit, although that amounted to $40bn.The same Brazilian press jubilantly points out that China allocated a mere 2% of its international reserves to support the IMF expansion agreed at the summit, although that amounted to $40bn.
"I would like to go down in history as the president who lent money to the IMF," Lula was quoted as saying, adding, "Don't you think it is chic for Brazil to lend money to the IMF?""I would like to go down in history as the president who lent money to the IMF," Lula was quoted as saying, adding, "Don't you think it is chic for Brazil to lend money to the IMF?"
Rate cutsRate cuts
In fact, Brazil is having another "First World" moment at present as it struggles to respond to the global financial crisis.In fact, Brazil is having another "First World" moment at present as it struggles to respond to the global financial crisis.
For the first time, the authorities are able to respond to a downturn as a developed country would, by stimulating the economy instead of cutting back.For the first time, the authorities are able to respond to a downturn as a developed country would, by stimulating the economy instead of cutting back.
Brazil's banks charge high interest rates, but they are coming downBrazil's banks charge high interest rates, but they are coming down
Brazilian interest rates have traditionally been among the highest in the world, in part because of fears of a return to the runaway inflation that plagued the economy until 1994. In the late 1990s, rates were as high as 45%.Brazilian interest rates have traditionally been among the highest in the world, in part because of fears of a return to the runaway inflation that plagued the economy until 1994. In the late 1990s, rates were as high as 45%.
But in January, Brazil's central bank boss Henrique Meirelles cut the benchmark rate by a full percentage point, to 12.75%.But in January, Brazil's central bank boss Henrique Meirelles cut the benchmark rate by a full percentage point, to 12.75%.
Then in March, rates came down by a further 1.5 percentage points to 11.25%, matching a record low last seen in April 2008.Then in March, rates came down by a further 1.5 percentage points to 11.25%, matching a record low last seen in April 2008.
At the next central bank committee meeting on 29 April, another one-point cut is likely. Single-digit rates are now expected before the end of the year, something most analysts never thought they would live to see.At the next central bank committee meeting on 29 April, another one-point cut is likely. Single-digit rates are now expected before the end of the year, something most analysts never thought they would live to see.
Housing driveHousing drive
As well as pursuing counter-cyclical monetary policy, Brazil is also seeking to produce its own fiscal stimulus package.As well as pursuing counter-cyclical monetary policy, Brazil is also seeking to produce its own fiscal stimulus package.
Last month, Finance Minister Guido Mantega announced plans to spend 34bn reais ($15.4bn; £10.3bn) on building one million homes for low-income workers.Last month, Finance Minister Guido Mantega announced plans to spend 34bn reais ($15.4bn; £10.3bn) on building one million homes for low-income workers.
He described it as "a bold programme" that would have "a significant impact on the Brazilian economy".He described it as "a bold programme" that would have "a significant impact on the Brazilian economy".
For many poor Brazilians, owning your own home means living in a favelaFor many poor Brazilians, owning your own home means living in a favela
Under the programme, families earning less than 1,395 reais a month will be able to acquire their own homes in exchange for payments of as little as 50 reais a month.Under the programme, families earning less than 1,395 reais a month will be able to acquire their own homes in exchange for payments of as little as 50 reais a month.
If the plan works, it will kill two birds with one stone. On the one hand, it will address the financial crisis by increasing growth by up to 2%, and creating 1.5 million new jobs.If the plan works, it will kill two birds with one stone. On the one hand, it will address the financial crisis by increasing growth by up to 2%, and creating 1.5 million new jobs.
On the other, it will ease Brazil's housing problems, which are exacerbated by the fact that those high interest rates make it extremely difficult to afford a mortgage.On the other, it will ease Brazil's housing problems, which are exacerbated by the fact that those high interest rates make it extremely difficult to afford a mortgage.
However, Brazil's overall macro-economic outlook is none too healthy at present.However, Brazil's overall macro-economic outlook is none too healthy at present.
In the final three months of 2008, gross domestic product shrank by 3.6% relative to the same period in 2007, representing its worst economic performance in more than a decade.In the final three months of 2008, gross domestic product shrank by 3.6% relative to the same period in 2007, representing its worst economic performance in more than a decade.
The government of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva had set a target of 4% growth for 2009, but that now appears hopelessly unrealistic.The government of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva had set a target of 4% growth for 2009, but that now appears hopelessly unrealistic.
Instead, the respected survey organisation Consensus Economics forecasts a contraction of 0.1%, which would still be the envy of many of the world's largest economies.Instead, the respected survey organisation Consensus Economics forecasts a contraction of 0.1%, which would still be the envy of many of the world's largest economies.
Grocery grandstandGrocery grandstand
If the IMF loan actually happens - and the central bank's Mr Meirelles stresses that it is still under "technical discussion" - it would certainly take Brazil's "First World" obsession to a whole new level.If the IMF loan actually happens - and the central bank's Mr Meirelles stresses that it is still under "technical discussion" - it would certainly take Brazil's "First World" obsession to a whole new level.
But what about the current fortunes of the Pao de Acucar supermarket, more than a decade after its own bit of developed-country grandstanding?But what about the current fortunes of the Pao de Acucar supermarket, more than a decade after its own bit of developed-country grandstanding?
Well, it has since gone from strength to strength. There are now 147 stores throughout Brazil bearing the Pao de Acucar brand, which is still targeted at more affluent consumers.Well, it has since gone from strength to strength. There are now 147 stores throughout Brazil bearing the Pao de Acucar brand, which is still targeted at more affluent consumers.
The group also operates another 434 stores under several more downmarket brands acquired through mergers and takeovers, making it the second-biggest retailer in Brazil with a market share of 13.3%.The group also operates another 434 stores under several more downmarket brands acquired through mergers and takeovers, making it the second-biggest retailer in Brazil with a market share of 13.3%.
But that expansion has come at a price. Once a wholly family-run firm, founded by Portuguese immigrant Valentim Dos Santos Diniz in Sao Paulo in 1948, it has been part-owned since 1999 by French retailer Casino.But that expansion has come at a price. Once a wholly family-run firm, founded by Portuguese immigrant Valentim Dos Santos Diniz in Sao Paulo in 1948, it has been part-owned since 1999 by French retailer Casino.
Globalisation means that Brazilian firms can now compete internationally with developed-country rivals - but it also means that if you are successful, the "First World" may come looking for a piece of the action.Globalisation means that Brazilian firms can now compete internationally with developed-country rivals - but it also means that if you are successful, the "First World" may come looking for a piece of the action.