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| Analysts downgrade 2021 forecast for oil to $70 per barrel, predicting that coronavirus variants may cool demand recovery | Analysts downgrade 2021 forecast for oil to $70 per barrel, predicting that coronavirus variants may cool demand recovery |
| (about 2 months later) | |
| Covid-19 variants, along with the slower-than-expected return of Iranian shipments, will reportedly continue affecting the global markets for crude until the end of the current year, remaining a major source of volatility. | Covid-19 variants, along with the slower-than-expected return of Iranian shipments, will reportedly continue affecting the global markets for crude until the end of the current year, remaining a major source of volatility. |
| According to the monthly Reuters poll, $70 per barrel looks to be a more realistic projection for Brent Crude prices for the rest of 2021, rather than the previously predicted $80 per barrel. | According to the monthly Reuters poll, $70 per barrel looks to be a more realistic projection for Brent Crude prices for the rest of 2021, rather than the previously predicted $80 per barrel. |
| The survey of 38 analysts suggests Brent might hover at around $68.76 per barrel – up slightly from June’s $67.48 estimate. So far this year, the global benchmark averaged around $66.57. | The survey of 38 analysts suggests Brent might hover at around $68.76 per barrel – up slightly from June’s $67.48 estimate. So far this year, the global benchmark averaged around $66.57. |
| “The wax and wane of Covid-19 waves will have more of an influence on sentiment than supply-and-demand fundamentals during the rest of the year, as we do not expect politicians to impose hard and broad-based lockdown measures anymore,” Julius Baer analyst Carsten Menke said, as cited by the agency. | “The wax and wane of Covid-19 waves will have more of an influence on sentiment than supply-and-demand fundamentals during the rest of the year, as we do not expect politicians to impose hard and broad-based lockdown measures anymore,” Julius Baer analyst Carsten Menke said, as cited by the agency. |
| The expert added that oil politics is expected to remain another source of volatility, especially if prices do overshoot this summer, raising the pressure on producers to react. | The expert added that oil politics is expected to remain another source of volatility, especially if prices do overshoot this summer, raising the pressure on producers to react. |
| Earlier, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting countries and allies (OPEC+) struck another deal to raise oil production by two million barrels per day (bpd) from August till December 2021, after prices hit nearly 2.5-year highs. | Earlier, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting countries and allies (OPEC+) struck another deal to raise oil production by two million barrels per day (bpd) from August till December 2021, after prices hit nearly 2.5-year highs. |
| “With rising OPEC+ output, a possible comeback of US production in the second half of 2021, and Covid-19 still threatening to cool down oil demand once again, I think $70 is a more realistic level for oil,” LBBW analyst Frank Schallenberger told Reuters. | “With rising OPEC+ output, a possible comeback of US production in the second half of 2021, and Covid-19 still threatening to cool down oil demand once again, I think $70 is a more realistic level for oil,” LBBW analyst Frank Schallenberger told Reuters. |
| Although OPEC+ and the International Energy Agency have predicted demand will reach pre-pandemic levels as soon as next year, China and other Asian nations are still imposing restrictive measures against rising coronavirus cases. | Although OPEC+ and the International Energy Agency have predicted demand will reach pre-pandemic levels as soon as next year, China and other Asian nations are still imposing restrictive measures against rising coronavirus cases. |
| Global prices for crude will also be affected by a delay in the return of ‘wildcard’ oil supplies from Iran, which is currently awaiting the lifting of US sanctions. | Global prices for crude will also be affected by a delay in the return of ‘wildcard’ oil supplies from Iran, which is currently awaiting the lifting of US sanctions. |
| “It looks likely that Iran will be a 2022 story now, boosting oil market prospects in the near-term but possibly dampening the trajectory in 1H-2022,” said DBS Bank analyst Suvro Sarkar. | “It looks likely that Iran will be a 2022 story now, boosting oil market prospects in the near-term but possibly dampening the trajectory in 1H-2022,” said DBS Bank analyst Suvro Sarkar. |
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