How bad are things for Brown?

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Analysis By Iain Watson Political correspondent, BBC News

Cast your mind back to this time last year. Gordon Brown was reeling from the abolition of the 10p tax rate, facing a revolt in his own ranks which led to an embarrassing climbdown and bail-out scheme to bolster his faltering leadership.

Mr Brown faced similar poll ratings this time last year

His party was on the verge of losing the London mayoral election and less than a month from defeat in the Crewe and Nantwich by-election.

A ComRes poll in the Independent newspaper last April gave the Conservatives a 14-point lead - some other polls showed a narrower, but nonetheless sizeable, gap.

A year on, and Mr Brown is reeling from an embarrassing climbdown over MPs' expenses.

Having unilaterally declared the abolition of the second homes allowance via a video posted on the Downing Street website - and its YouTube channel - he has had to admit there is no consensus.

Lack of agreement is rife within his own party, not just between the party leaders.

'Enthusiasm less than total'

Mr Brown was keen to get on the front foot before MPs' expenses are published in full in the summer.

But despite party whips attempting to arm-twist Labour MPs - in what would be a "free vote" - into supporting the prime minister's proposals, one of the unconvinced politicians said with understatement: "Enthusiasm was less than total."

And this April the ComRes poll in the Independent suggests a 19-point Conservative lead - although, as with last April's poll, some others suggest a slightly narrower Labour deficit.

Digging out my notes of conversations from a year ago, some MPs were expressing "anger" and "disappointment" at Mr Brown's leadership.

The more thoughtful were bemoaning the lack of an overall "narrative", while the more robust were bemoaning his personality.

Unlike the failed coup of last summer there is no move to change leadership now Labour MP

After defeat in the formerly safe seat of Glasgow East last July dissent became public, with the leader of the GMB union calling for a leadership contest "to clear the air".

In September, government whip Siobhan McDonagh also called for a contest after a letter she had sent to Labour's ruling National Executive Committee had been leaked.

Soon after, Scotland Office minister David Cairns resigned saying he could no longer work for a Brown-led administration.

So there was a sense of deja vu when, after a lively meeting of Labour's parliamentary party on Monday, I spoke to a range of Labour MPs about Mr Brown's leadership.

"He has made himself look like an idiot," said one - though "idiot" is my euphemism for a coarser term.

"He has been comprehensively outmanoeuvred on this by David Cameron," another observed.

So clearly we are witnessing a prime minister losing authority and heading towards inevitable electoral oblivion.

Or are we?

Let us rewind to the summer of discontent last year and take a closer look at the time when Mr Brown's opponents finally went public with calls for him to go.

Putsch talk

Even with a former cabinet minister predicting "a Michael Foot-style meltdown" at the next election, those who wanted to displace Mr Brown could agree on their objective but, crucially, not on their tactics.

Some wanted to see a head-on challenge; others preferred trying to garner enough signatures from fellow Labour MPs to force an open contest; while yet more of them favoured writing to the cabinet inviting them to pass the modern-day equivalent of the pearl-handled revolver to the prime minister.

Putsch never came to shove.

By the autumn it was not a crisis in the Labour Party which made the headlines. It was a crisis in the global economy.

Lord Mandelson's spinning skills have been under-used, some MPs say

Mr Brown declared in his conference speech that it was "no time for a novice" and some previously hostile Labour MPs - along with an increasing number of voters - seemed to agree.

The return of Peter Mandelson to the cabinet killed off any possibility of a Blairitie plot to oust him.

His sure-footedness on the international stage began to re-inflate his punctured authority.

By the end of last year, the gap in the polls had narrowed to just four or five points. Some Labour MPs were privately calling for an early election.

But with the recession deepening in Britain, Mr Brown's cloak of international respectability started to look more threadbare.

And the jaw-dropping levels of debt announced in the Budget allowed the Conservatives to say they were right to oppose Mr Brown's "fiscal stimulus" - borrowing in order to spend more in the recession - despite previous accusations of being isolated from political opinion in the wider world.

Poll dissected

But for some in Labour's ranks, it is Mr Brown's handling of the non-economic issues that has brought back frightening memories of what they saw as the stubbornness and other shortcomings on display in pre-credit crunch Britain.

Nonetheless, if they could not depose him then, it seems highly unlikely they can - or would even wish to - do so now, even if they are perhaps again seeing more of his flaws than his forte.

As one former potential plotter put it: "I would know if something is going on - unlike the failed coup of last summer there is no move to change leadership now."

However, just as it is worth looking in detail at what happened during the last bout of serious dissent, Mr Brown's supporters will also be less depressed by a closer analysis of the latest Independent poll.

He has never been a great selector of people Fellow Scottish MP

Yes, Labour is way behind the Conservatives in voting intention.

But it suggests only 38% of respondents felt the Tories had the right policies to get Britain out of the recession - 49% disagreed.

Some 79% of participants wanted Mr Cameron to be clearer about what he would do on the economy.

So Labour will hope, as the electorate starts to scrutinise what spending the Conservatives might cut to tackle what they call Labour's debt crisis, some wobbly worried voters will work their way back to the fold.

Too late

But the governing party will have an uphill battle, perhaps a mountain ascent.

Two thirds of voters who regard themselves as Conservatives say they are certain to vote at the next election - compared with just under half of those who identify with Labour.

And this is where disillusioned Labour MPs feel a difference can be made.

By and large they think it is too late to change leader. But overwhelmingly they feel Mr Brown had shot himself in the foot by appearing on the worldwide web unveiling proposals on MPs' expenses which had never been agreed.

So, while they are not calling for his head, they do want the careers of some of those around him to be cut short and for the Downing Street operation to be given the kiss of life.

"He has never been a great selector of people," said a fellow Scottish MP.

The serial Brown sceptic Frank Field has called for a big hitter to be appointed to number 10 - in his view, the decidedly non-Brownite Charles Clarke would be ideal.

Mr Clarke himself said on Tuesday that the prime minister had been "damaged" by his handling of the expenses issue.

What next?

Others are talking of resurrecting the idea of a deputy prime minister.

A former cabinet minister expressed surprise that Lord Mandelson's spinning skills were not being fully exploited by Number 10, while a former minister said Mr Brown should stick to the economy and let well-performing cabinet members do more on the domestic front.

So, many Labour MPs feel if Mr Brown gets more sure-footed advice from those who can stand up to him, scrutiny might be redirected towards the opposition.

In turn, Labour-minded people might feel more comfortable in backing the party at the polls.

But there are at least two other scenarios which might play out in the year ahead.

First, that Mr Brown ignores this advice and that his authority suffers because there are more blatant attacks not on his personality but his politics by some in his own ranks.

This week, Stephen Byers, the former transport secretary who is seen as close to previous prime minister Tony Blair, denounced the 50p tax rate as a "cynical" political ploy, angering some of his colleagues but potentially damaging the current PM.

The second scenario is that, after potentially disastrous European election results in June, Mr Brown decides himself it is time to go and throws his weight behind one of his cabinet allies as a pre-general election successor.

Some insiders are muttering about this possibility - but it is probably as remote as a spectacular recovery in GDP this year.