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N.Y. Democrats Assess Losses to Republicans: ‘This Was a Shellacking’ N.Y. Democrats Assess Losses to Republicans: ‘This Was a Shellacking’
(about 5 hours later)
In Southern Brooklyn, a New York City Council seat that long favored Democrats flipped to Republican control. Two other Democratic seats nearby still hung in the balance on Wednesday morning, including a race where the incumbent, a likely candidate for Council speaker, was trailing. New York Democrats were left reeling on Wednesday after startling electoral losses from the tip of Long Island to the shores of Lake Erie, as a re-energized Republican Party showed it could make deep inroads even in one of the country’s liberal strongholds.
On Long Island, Democrats faced staggering losses up and down the ballot. In suburban Nassau County, where Democrats controlled every major office before Election Day, Republicans capitalized on anemic Democratic turnout to flip the county comptroller and district attorney offices for the first time in 15 years, while also defeating the incumbent county executive.
And in Buffalo, a democratic socialist who had been hailed by left-wing leaders as a future face of the party appeared to be headed to defeat against the long-serving moderate Democratic mayor who ran as a write-in candidate with Republican backing, illustrating deep intraparty tensions over messaging and identity. In Colonie, outside Albany, they handily won the town supervisor job for the first time in nearly two decades and were on track to wrest control of the town board from Democrats.
As national Democrats began to come to terms with losing the Virginia governor’s race and confronted a far closer race than expected for governor of New Jersey, New York Democrats of varying ideological stripes were dealt one stunning blow after the next on election night. While Eric Adams and fellow Democrats easily won races to retain control of City Hall and the City Council overall, Republicans made significant inroads across a state perceived by much of the country to be a liberal stronghold. And in New York City, where Eric Adams and his fellow Democrats easily retained control of City Hall and the City Council, Republicans were nonetheless poised to expand their presence in city government after another low-turnout election — possibly to levels not seen since Rudolph W. Giuliani was mayor.
Statewide, voters appear to have soundly rejected a pair of constitutional amendments meant to broaden access to the ballot in future elections — a major national priority for the party — that Democrats had believed would sail to approval. Indeed, Democrats were left to grapple with how they had lost local seats that had been safely in their corner for years, with the potential for the greatest Republican presence on the New York City Council since Rudolph W. Giuliani was mayor. As ballot tallying continued Wednesday afternoon, an incumbent Democratic council member and likely candidate for council speaker remained improbably at risk of losing his Southern Brooklyn seat.
And to national Democrats already worried about next year’s midterms, there were abundant warning signs in New York that the moderate suburbs that had increasingly shifted left in the Trump era were going to be far more difficult to maintain without a polarizing Republican president on the ballot. The results for Democrats were no better on statewide ballot measures, as voters soundly rejected two constitutional amendments meant to broaden ballot access — a major national priority for the party — that Democrats had believed would sail to approval.
“There’s no way to sugarcoat this: This was a shellacking on a thumping,” former Representative Steve Israel of New York, a former chair of the House Democratic campaign arm, said of Tuesday’s results for Democrats across the country. “There’s no way to sugarcoat this: This was a shellacking on a thumping,” Steve Israel, a former New York congressman and onetime chair of the House Democratic campaign arm, said of Tuesday’s results for the party in New York and across the country.
Nowhere was that clearer than on Long Island, where Anne Donnelly, a Republican, defeated State Senator Todd Kaminsky, a Democrat, for district attorney in Nassau County, and Timothy Sini, the Democratic district attorney in Suffolk County, lost his seat to the Republican candidate, Ray Tierney. Laura Curran, the Nassau County executive seen as a strong incumbent, trailed her Republican opponent, Bruce Blakeman, on Wednesday. Party strategists cautioned against reading too much into the results of off-year, low-turnout elections. It is impossible to predict what the political environment or issues will look like next year, they emphasized, or what role former President Donald J. Trump may play.
“Long Island is very much like the rest of the country: There was a red wave,” said Jay Jacobs, the chairman of the New York State Democratic Committee who also leads the party in Nassau County. “Republicans were energized because they’re angry and they’re unhappy with the direction of the country. We saw that in polls. Democrats are disheartened and unenthusiastic.” But the results across New York mirrored damaging outcomes for Democrats in governor’s races in Virginia, where Republicans won, and New Jersey, where they came close, and signaled that even traditional blue bastions and suburbs that leaned Democratic during Mr. Trump’s presidency were not immune to a punishing national environment. Indeed, that coalition appears to be harder to maintain without a polarizing Republican president in office.
Mr. Israel, who used to represent a Long Island-area district in Congress, argued that the results there were perhaps more instructive than the higher-profile national races. For many people watching the results, Tuesday was reminiscent of 2009, when Republicans won the governors’ races in Virginia and New Jersey and triumphed in some local races on Long Island and even in the New York City Council contests. They took back the House in a wave election the next year.
“On Long Island you had underfunded, unknown Republicans routing well-funded, well-known Democrats,” he said. “Anytime a generic candidate beats a more defined candidate from the other party, you know something’s happening.” The results left Democrats’ moderate and left-leaning factions once again pointing fingers at one another as they sought a rapid course correction.
Certainly, New York remains an overwhelmingly Democratic state by many metrics. “This is a nightmare,” said the left-leaning State Senator Alessandra Biaggi, warning fellow Democrats to focus on countering Republican attacks on a bail reform law her party had approved and actively selling their legislative accomplishments. “But it is also not a nightmare that does not have the ability to turn around.”
The Republican Party has generally been hollowed out in New York City, where the Democratic candidate, Mr. Adams, was declared the winner of the mayoral election about 10 minutes after polls closed in what was by far the most consequential race on the ballot. Republican gains at the City Council level, although notable, were a matter of margins, and the vote totals could still shift somewhat as absentee ballots are counted. Both of the party’s factions were particularly embittered after a stinging intramural fight in the Buffalo’s mayor’s race. Left-wing leaders had hailed India Walton, a democratic socialist, as a future face of the party after she won the Democratic primary. On Wednesday afternoon, though, she conceded defeat to Byron Brown, the long-serving moderate Democratic mayor who ran as a write-in candidate with Republican support.
And party strategists cautioned against reading too much into the results of off-year, low-turnout elections at a moment when many Americans are burned out from politics and distracted by the lingering pandemic and its attendant consequences. It is far too early to predict what next year’s environment or issue set will look like, they emphasized, or how involved former President Donald J. Trump will be in politics. “Democrats who are running New York have done too much to just pander to the left, and we’re paying price for it,” said Representative Tom Suozzi, a Long Island moderate who vocally supported the write-in campaign and is considering a run for governor next year.
But local results across New York mirrored damaging outcomes for Democrats that unfolded in other races across the country on Tuesday — signs that even traditional blue bastions were not immune from a punishing national environment for the party. Mr. Suozzi suggested that approach had exacerbated the cyclical pendulum swing of party politics. “People don’t want that,” he said. “They want results that affect their everyday life.”
For many watching the results, the moment was reminiscent of 2009, when Republicans won the governors’ races in Virginia and New Jersey, swept a number of local races on Long Island and even on the New York City Council — and went on to take back the House of Representatives in a wave election the following year. Democratic turnout appeared to be down significantly across the state.
Asked if he was concerned about a repeat of that dynamic, Mr. Jacobs replied, “I’m very worried.” Nowhere was the impact clearer than on Long Island, where early data in Nassau County suggested just over 260,000 total votes were cast this year, compared with the more than 700,000 cast in 2020, when Mr. Biden won a commanding 10-point victory there. Many Democrats appear to have simply stayed home: Despite the party having a nearly 90,000-person registration advantage, more registered Republicans cast ballots.
Republicans emerged buoyant on Wednesday, promising to compound their gains this time next year when New York will elect a new governor, attorney general, State Assembly and State Senate, all of which are now within Democrats’ tight grip. In the district attorney’s race, Anne Donnelly, the Republican, defeated State Senator Todd Kaminsky, the Democrat, by close to 20 points. Laura Curran, the Nassau County executive who had been seen as a strong incumbent, trailed her Republican opponent, Bruce Blakeman, by a narrower margin on Wednesday.
“The strength of our grass-roots support has never been stronger,” said Representative Elise Stefanik, who represents much of upstate New York and is the No. 3 Republican in the House of Representatives. “The work to save New York started tonight with Republican victories up and down the ballot, and it will continue in 2022 when we retire Nancy Pelosi and finally take back the Governor’s Mansion.” In neighboring Suffolk County, Timothy Sini, the Democratic district attorney, lost to Ray Tierney, a Republican.
The flash points varied from race to race, but one through line was the matter of public safety, as debates — and at times mischaracterizations — around recent changes to bail laws defined races on Long Island and confrontations over policing issues more broadly played out across the state. “Long Island is very much like the rest of the country: There was a red wave,” said Jay Jacobs, New York’s state Democratic chairman and the leader of the Nassau County party. “Republicans were energized because they’re angry and they’re unhappy with the direction of the country. We saw that in polls. Democrats are disheartened and unenthusiastic.”
“It’s probably better for Democrats that they got this wake-up call,” said Bruce N. Gyory, a veteran Democratic political strategist. He said that Democrats would have time to develop a stronger narrative to counter the Republican messaging before next year’s races for governor and the State Legislature, or risk losing independents and depressing turnout among moderates. Republicans, on the other hand, emerged buoyant on Wednesday, promising to compound their gains next year when New York will elect a governor, attorney general and State Legislature. All are currently within Democrats’ tight grip and not considered at serious risk of being flipped.
“You can bet they are going to run against every senator on Long Island and up the Hudson Valley on bail reform in the next election,” Mr. Gyory said. “We are going to take a common sense governing agenda to this state and build the best ticket our party has run since 1994,” said Nick Langworthy, the state Republican chairman, predicting that Democrats would ignore the warning sirens.
In conservative corners of New York City, some voters were fueled by anger around municipal vaccine mandates as well, an issue that was at play in a number of City Council contests. As of Wednesday morning, Republicans had expanded their presence on the Council to four seats from three, but one other was clearly tilting their way and several other contests remained close. “They will not learn the lessons here because they are so petrified of the far extreme left of their primary base,” he said.
Notably, Councilman Justin Brannan, who has been considered a front-runner for speaker of the next City Council, was still awaiting vote tallies in his too-close-to-call Brooklyn district, though he expressed optimism that absentee ballots would put him over the top. The flash points varied from race to race, but one through line was the matter of public safety, as debates — and, at times, mischaracterizations — about recent changes to the state’s bail laws defined races on Long Island, and confrontations over policing issues more broadly played out across the state.
Democrats were just as stung by the apparent defeat of three separate ballot initiatives they had crafted and expected voters across the state to easily approve. One would have paved the way for no-excuse absentee voting and another for same-day voter registration — policies adopted by other states that Democrats have argued are necessary to help counter Republican attempts to clamp down on ballot access. “You can bet they are going to run against every senator on Long Island and up the Hudson Valley on bail reform in the next election,” said Bruce N. Gyory, a veteran Democratic political strategist.
Voters appeared on track to reject a third measure that would have tweaked the guidelines governing the once-in-a-decade legislative redistricting process to Democrats’ benefit. However, they did approve a fourth measure giving New Yorkers a constitutional right to clean air, water and a “healthful environment.” In conservative corners of New York City, some voters were fueled by anger over municipal vaccine mandates as well, an issue that was at play in a number of City Council contests. As of early Wednesday, Republicans had expanded their presence on the Council to four seats from three, with another clearly tilting their way and several more contests remaining close.
The New York Republican Party had toured the state opposing the election-related measures, warning, speciously, that they could lead to an increase in voter fraud across the state. Democrats, meanwhile, made very little effort to sell the proposals. They appear to have been hurt by ballot design as well: in New York City, where the questions appeared on the back side of the ballot, thousands of voters simply left that portion blank. Notably, Councilman Justin Brannan, a leading potential candidate to become the next council speaker, was still awaiting vote tallies in his too-close-to-call Brooklyn district, although he expressed optimism that absentee ballots would put him over the top.
Former Representative Peter King, a Republican who once represented a Long Island-area district, characterized the results overall as a “reaction against Biden and the progressive Democrats.” Democrats were equally stung by the defeat of three ballot initiatives they had crafted and expected voters across the state to easily approve. One would have paved the way for no-excuse absentee voting and another for same-day voter registration — policies adopted in other states that Democrats have argued are necessary to help counter Republican attempts to restrict ballot access.
There were real opportunities for Republicans to continue to make inroads, he predicted — but, he cautioned, that is not a guarantee if Republicans campaign in what he cast as an overly ideological manner. Voters also rejected a measure that would have revised the guidelines governing the once-in-a-decade legislative redistricting process to Democrats’ benefit. Voters did approve a fourth measure giving New Yorkers a constitutional right to clean air, water and a “healthful environment.”
“We have to show we can govern, show we can make it work, and not get caught up in issues that are the right-wing equivalent of the progressives,” he said. “It has to be coordinated, it has to be coherent, it can’t go off the edges.” New York Republicans had barnstormed the state in opposition to the election-related measures and spent heavily to advertise against them, warning, without basis, that the changes could lead to an increase in voter fraud.
Democrats, by contrast, made very little effort to promote the proposals.
“That is a betrayal of our value of vigilance,” Ms. Biaggi said, referring to the party’s failure to push the amendments more aggressively. “It’s pathetic.”
She reiterated a call for Mr. Jacobs to resign and said Gov. Kathy Hochul should move to oust him if he did not.
Peter King, a former longtime Republican congressman from Long Island, characterized the results overall as a “reaction against Biden and the progressive Democrats.” He warned that his party could still squander its good hand, particularly if it campaigned in what he cast as an overly ideological manner.
“We have to show we can govern, show we can make it work, and not get caught up in issues that are the right-wing equivalent of the progressives,” Mr. King said. “It has to be coordinated, it has to be coherent, it can’t go off the edges.”
Luis Ferré-Sadurní contributed reporting.Luis Ferré-Sadurní contributed reporting.