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UK shoppers face biggest price rises since 1990 in Christmas rush – business live UK shoppers face biggest price rises since 1990 in Christmas rush – business live
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Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial newsRolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news
Mexico’s economy shrank by more than expected in the last quarter as the Covid-19 pandemic hit businesses.
Mexico’s GDP fell by 0.4% in the third quarter of the year, updated data show, twice as bad as the 0.2% contraction first reported.
A nearly 1% contraction in tertiary activity, which includes services and transport, hit the economy, as the Delta variant hit service sector companies.
Global supply chain disruptions have weighed on a recovery in manufacturing, with ‘secondary activity’ such as factories only rising 0.3%.
The global supply chain problems pushing up the cost of UK goods in the shops, and weighing on the eurozone recovery are partly due to delays at China’s ports.The global supply chain problems pushing up the cost of UK goods in the shops, and weighing on the eurozone recovery are partly due to delays at China’s ports.
Bloomberg has looked into this, and found that China’s tough quarantine rules are hitting the shipping industry’s recovery:Bloomberg has looked into this, and found that China’s tough quarantine rules are hitting the shipping industry’s recovery:
Carbon dioxide emissions in China have fallen for the first time since last year’s lockdown, a report today shows.Carbon dioxide emissions in China have fallen for the first time since last year’s lockdown, a report today shows.
It’s a sign that the downturn in China’s property sector, energy shortages, and the clampdown on polluting industries have all hit factory output.It’s a sign that the downturn in China’s property sector, energy shortages, and the clampdown on polluting industries have all hit factory output.
Emissions declined by about 0.5 per cent in the three months to the end of September, according to data published by Carbon Brief, a climate research and news service.Emissions declined by about 0.5 per cent in the three months to the end of September, according to data published by Carbon Brief, a climate research and news service.
It is the first decline since the first quarter of 2020, when the pandemic forced China to impose lockdowns and travel restrictions.It is the first decline since the first quarter of 2020, when the pandemic forced China to impose lockdowns and travel restrictions.
It might show that China will hit peak emissions earlier than forecast. Alternatively, Beijing could stimulate its economy again, leading to a pick-up in emissions.It might show that China will hit peak emissions earlier than forecast. Alternatively, Beijing could stimulate its economy again, leading to a pick-up in emissions.
Carbon Brief’s Simon Evans has tweeted the details:Carbon Brief’s Simon Evans has tweeted the details:
The supply chain problems hitting the euro area have lasted for longer than policymakers expected.The supply chain problems hitting the euro area have lasted for longer than policymakers expected.
The minutes of the European Central Bank’s last meeting, at the end of October, show that governing council members “widely acknowledged that supply bottlenecks were lasting longer than initially thought”.The minutes of the European Central Bank’s last meeting, at the end of October, show that governing council members “widely acknowledged that supply bottlenecks were lasting longer than initially thought”.
Some EB officials pointed out that firms relying on “just-in-time” delivery systems had suffered most, raising the question of whether future systems would return to relying more on inventories and buffers. Others suggested that the move towards more globalisation in manufacturing could reverse, the minutes say, adding:Some EB officials pointed out that firms relying on “just-in-time” delivery systems had suffered most, raising the question of whether future systems would return to relying more on inventories and buffers. Others suggested that the move towards more globalisation in manufacturing could reverse, the minutes say, adding:
The meeting also discussed the surge in energy prices, which could increase the likelihood of “scarring effects” that could hamper future growth.The meeting also discussed the surge in energy prices, which could increase the likelihood of “scarring effects” that could hamper future growth.
But policymakers pushed back at the idea that Europe faces stagflation, pointing out that the euro area is still seeing robust growth, while a 1970s-style wage-price spiral is less likely today:But policymakers pushed back at the idea that Europe faces stagflation, pointing out that the euro area is still seeing robust growth, while a 1970s-style wage-price spiral is less likely today:
Sterling has now slipped to its lowest level of the year against the resurgent US dollar.Sterling has now slipped to its lowest level of the year against the resurgent US dollar.
The pound eased by 0.1% against the dollar to $1.3304, the lowest since last December.The pound eased by 0.1% against the dollar to $1.3304, the lowest since last December.
Uncertainty over when the Bank of England might raise interest rate, and last night’s hawkish tone in the Federal Reserve minutes, are weighing on the pound.Uncertainty over when the Bank of England might raise interest rate, and last night’s hawkish tone in the Federal Reserve minutes, are weighing on the pound.
Jeremy Thomson-Cook, chief economist at international business payments firm Equals Money, says:Jeremy Thomson-Cook, chief economist at international business payments firm Equals Money, says:
Meanwhile, the dollar benefited from yesterday’s big fall in jobless claims, which adds to pressure to slow the Fed’s stimulus programme faster:Meanwhile, the dollar benefited from yesterday’s big fall in jobless claims, which adds to pressure to slow the Fed’s stimulus programme faster:
The jump in prices in UK shops this month adds to evidence of surging price pressures in Britain.The jump in prices in UK shops this month adds to evidence of surging price pressures in Britain.
Inflation was already at a 13-year high and companies have been warning for months that their input cost had surged due to pricier raw materials, shortages, and wage pressures.Inflation was already at a 13-year high and companies have been warning for months that their input cost had surged due to pricier raw materials, shortages, and wage pressures.
It may push the Bank of England to raise interest rates next month for the first time since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, as Reuters points out here.It may push the Bank of England to raise interest rates next month for the first time since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, as Reuters points out here.
Here’s more details of the CBI’s retail survey:Here’s more details of the CBI’s retail survey:
UK shoppers face the biggest price rises in over thirty years this Christmas, as fears of shortages send people rushing to the shops early.UK shoppers face the biggest price rises in over thirty years this Christmas, as fears of shortages send people rushing to the shops early.
The Confederation of British Industry’s quarterly Distributive Trades Survey has found that selling prices in November grew at the fastest pace since May 1990, with a balance of 77% of firms reporting higher prices than a year ago.The Confederation of British Industry’s quarterly Distributive Trades Survey has found that selling prices in November grew at the fastest pace since May 1990, with a balance of 77% of firms reporting higher prices than a year ago.
Prices are expected to grow at a broadly similar pace next month, the CBI adds.Prices are expected to grow at a broadly similar pace next month, the CBI adds.
Its monthly retail sales balance - which shows whether annual sales growth is rising or falling - rose to a three-month high of +39 in November from +30 in October.Its monthly retail sales balance - which shows whether annual sales growth is rising or falling - rose to a three-month high of +39 in November from +30 in October.
And a measures of sales for the time of year leapt to +35 from -1, its highest since September 2015.And a measures of sales for the time of year leapt to +35 from -1, its highest since September 2015.
Retailers were also less worried about supply shortages. Stock levels in relation to expected sales were broadly adequate (-2% from -23%), having hit a series of record lows this year. They’re expected to be good next month, the CBI says (+4%).Retailers were also less worried about supply shortages. Stock levels in relation to expected sales were broadly adequate (-2% from -23%), having hit a series of record lows this year. They’re expected to be good next month, the CBI says (+4%).
Ben Jones, CBI lead economist, says fears of shortages encouraged people to start their festive shopping earlier:Ben Jones, CBI lead economist, says fears of shortages encouraged people to start their festive shopping earlier:
The survey also found that internet sales were lower than a year ago, the first time in the survey’s 20-year higher history. That may be because England entered its second lockdown in November 2020, forcing non-essential shops to close.The survey also found that internet sales were lower than a year ago, the first time in the survey’s 20-year higher history. That may be because England entered its second lockdown in November 2020, forcing non-essential shops to close.
Web sales are expected to rise in December, as people get their Christmas shopping orders in.Web sales are expected to rise in December, as people get their Christmas shopping orders in.
Sweden’s central bank has kept interest rates at the current record low of zero, and indicated that the first hike could come in 2024.Sweden’s central bank has kept interest rates at the current record low of zero, and indicated that the first hike could come in 2024.
The Riksbank left policy unchanged this morning, arguing that currently above-target inflation would ease back next year, saying:The Riksbank left policy unchanged this morning, arguing that currently above-target inflation would ease back next year, saying:
It also stuck to its plans to maintain its balance sheet through next year before allowing the portfolio to decrease gradually.It also stuck to its plans to maintain its balance sheet through next year before allowing the portfolio to decrease gradually.
David Oxley, Senior European Economist at Capital Economics, told clients that the Riksbank had injected a ‘dash of hawkishness’:David Oxley, Senior European Economist at Capital Economics, told clients that the Riksbank had injected a ‘dash of hawkishness’:
The pub and restaurant group Mitchells & Butlers has warned that problems caused by Brexit and rising costs will hurt the hospitality sector, just as businesses return to profit after pandemic restrictions eased.The pub and restaurant group Mitchells & Butlers has warned that problems caused by Brexit and rising costs will hurt the hospitality sector, just as businesses return to profit after pandemic restrictions eased.
The company, which owns pub chains including O’Neill’s and restaurant brands such as Harvester, said Brexit was still “an important event for the market” and had created risks for the sector, most notably around the supply and cost of products and workforce shortages.The company, which owns pub chains including O’Neill’s and restaurant brands such as Harvester, said Brexit was still “an important event for the market” and had created risks for the sector, most notably around the supply and cost of products and workforce shortages.
It said higher energy bills and increased staff wages were also weighing on the sector.It said higher energy bills and increased staff wages were also weighing on the sector.
Mitchells & Butlers – which also runs All Bar One, Toby Carvery and Miller & Carter – said customers began to return to its 1,600 UK venues when lockdown restrictions were relaxed in the spring. Its sales bounced back in August and September and it is now receiving bookings for Christmas parties.Mitchells & Butlers – which also runs All Bar One, Toby Carvery and Miller & Carter – said customers began to return to its 1,600 UK venues when lockdown restrictions were relaxed in the spring. Its sales bounced back in August and September and it is now receiving bookings for Christmas parties.
Announcing its annual results, the group said its suburban locations were trading better than those in city centres, as continued home working meant people visited their local rather than a branch near their workplace. Footfall in major cities has been slowly increasing in recent months, a trend the company expects to continue....Announcing its annual results, the group said its suburban locations were trading better than those in city centres, as continued home working meant people visited their local rather than a branch near their workplace. Footfall in major cities has been slowly increasing in recent months, a trend the company expects to continue....
More here:More here:
Vacancies at UK companies remain high, with online job adverts last Friday still around 44% higher than the pre-pandemic level.Vacancies at UK companies remain high, with online job adverts last Friday still around 44% higher than the pre-pandemic level.
The highest level of job adverts relative to its February 2020 level continues to be in “transport, logistics and warehouse” at 382%, while the largest weekly increase was in the “travel and tourism” category, rising by 11%.The highest level of job adverts relative to its February 2020 level continues to be in “transport, logistics and warehouse” at 382%, while the largest weekly increase was in the “travel and tourism” category, rising by 11%.
The Office for National Statistics’ weekly indicators also show that almost four in 10 hospitality firms said they were short of workers last week.The Office for National Statistics’ weekly indicators also show that almost four in 10 hospitality firms said they were short of workers last week.
The number of flights into and out of the UK hit its highest since the first lockdowns in March 2020 - following the reopening of travel to the US earlier this month.The number of flights into and out of the UK hit its highest since the first lockdowns in March 2020 - following the reopening of travel to the US earlier this month.
Multipack crisps are still the item in shortest supply at UK shops, following production problems at major producer Walkers.Multipack crisps are still the item in shortest supply at UK shops, following production problems at major producer Walkers.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reports that 20% of stores visited between 19 and 22 November 2021 had limited supplies of crisps, and 4% had run out.The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reports that 20% of stores visited between 19 and 22 November 2021 had limited supplies of crisps, and 4% had run out.
That’s slightly better than a week earlier, when 26% were short of supplies, and 4% had empty crisp shelves.That’s slightly better than a week earlier, when 26% were short of supplies, and 4% had empty crisp shelves.
Crisps supplies have been disrupted by an IT computer upgrade at the world’s biggest crisp factory.Crisps supplies have been disrupted by an IT computer upgrade at the world’s biggest crisp factory.
Leicester-based Walkers said last month that the glitch forced it to slow production, forcing the company to prioritise its most popular varieties – including cheese and onion, ready salted and salt and vinegar, as well as Quavers and Wotsits.Leicester-based Walkers said last month that the glitch forced it to slow production, forcing the company to prioritise its most popular varieties – including cheese and onion, ready salted and salt and vinegar, as well as Quavers and Wotsits.
Kantar Public’s survey of 275 stores also found that paracetamol and ibuprofen were also in relatively short supply.Kantar Public’s survey of 275 stores also found that paracetamol and ibuprofen were also in relatively short supply.
Buying fresh pork could be a challenge too, with 12% of stores only offering short supplies and 2% running out.Buying fresh pork could be a challenge too, with 12% of stores only offering short supplies and 2% running out.
Shops were most likely to have run out of frozen turkeys, after consumers snapped them up quickly in recent weeks. Some 10% of shops didn’t have any frozen turkeys, while another 3% had limited stocks.Shops were most likely to have run out of frozen turkeys, after consumers snapped them up quickly in recent weeks. Some 10% of shops didn’t have any frozen turkeys, while another 3% had limited stocks.
The beer shelves are heaving, though, with only 2% of shops having low stocks.The beer shelves are heaving, though, with only 2% of shops having low stocks.
However, a group of 48 wine and spirits companies yesterday warned that Britain is facing a Christmas alcohol shortage unless the government does more to address the lack of HGV drivers.However, a group of 48 wine and spirits companies yesterday warned that Britain is facing a Christmas alcohol shortage unless the government does more to address the lack of HGV drivers.
Shares in French spirits maker Remy Cointreau have surged to a record high after lifting its profit forecast after strong sales this year.Shares in French spirits maker Remy Cointreau have surged to a record high after lifting its profit forecast after strong sales this year.
The maker of Remy Martin cognac and Cointreau liqueur beat forecasts with a 104.5% jump in operating profits in the first half of this year.The maker of Remy Martin cognac and Cointreau liqueur beat forecasts with a 104.5% jump in operating profits in the first half of this year.
This is due to “excellent momentum” in China and the United States as well as a strong recovery in Europe, the firm says.This is due to “excellent momentum” in China and the United States as well as a strong recovery in Europe, the firm says.
This pushed shares up 10% this morning, meaning they’ve jumped 35% so far this year.This pushed shares up 10% this morning, meaning they’ve jumped 35% so far this year.
Remy Cointreau now expects “very strong” growth in organic operating profits this year, and strong sales too.Remy Cointreau now expects “very strong” growth in organic operating profits this year, and strong sales too.
Chief executive officer Eric Vallat said in a statement.Chief executive officer Eric Vallat said in a statement.