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Covid news live: Omicron likely to become dominant variant, UK and US experts say Covid news live: Omicron likely to become dominant variant, UK and US experts say
(31 minutes later)
The Omicron Covid variant is likely to ‘outcompete Delta’ in many, if not all, regions, a Harvard researcher says; patchy monitoring and a time lag in the data is thought to be underreporting cases in the UK Omicron variant is likely to ‘outcompete Delta’, Harvard researcher says; patchy monitoring thought to be behind underreporting of cases in the UK
Rhiannon Lucy Cosslett writes for us today, arguing that the explosion of Covid PTSD cases is a mental health crisis in the making:
The NHS forecasts that nationally, there will be 230,000 new cases of PTSD as a result of Covid-19. It is not only social care and medical staff who will be affected. Those who lost loved ones, and those who have been very ill or hospitalised (35% of Covid-19 patients who were put on a ventilator go on to experience extensive symptoms of PTSD) may also suffer.
Then there are those living with the effects of domestic and sexual abuse, which may have worsened due to lockdown, and children and young people whose lives changed immeasurably due to our shift to a state of emergency. I imagine that some women whose birthing experiences were marked by the pandemic will also be experiencing symptoms.
Unfortunately, the current system is still not fully equipped to deal with this explosion in trauma cases. The Royal College of Psychiatrists says the NHS is already facing the biggest backlog in its history of those waiting for mental health help. As of September, 1.6 million people were waiting for treatment, and the college says that more funds than those committed to by the government are desperately needed.
Read more here: Rhiannon Lucy Cosslett – The explosion of Covid PTSD cases is a mental health crisis in the making
Prof Tim Spector, from the Covid Zoe app, said that in about 10 days’ time the UK could have more cases of Omicron than some countries it had put on the travel red list.Prof Tim Spector, from the Covid Zoe app, said that in about 10 days’ time the UK could have more cases of Omicron than some countries it had put on the travel red list.
The professor of genetic epidemiology at King’s College London told BBC Breakfast: “The official estimates are about 350-odd Omicron cases, and because the current testing is missing a lot of those, it’s probably at least 1,000 to 2,000 I would guess at the moment.The professor of genetic epidemiology at King’s College London told BBC Breakfast: “The official estimates are about 350-odd Omicron cases, and because the current testing is missing a lot of those, it’s probably at least 1,000 to 2,000 I would guess at the moment.
“And we are expecting this to be doubling about every two days at the moment, so if you do your maths – say, assumed it’s 1,000 at the moment, and you think it’s going to be doubling every two days, you can see that those numbers are going to be pretty (high) certainly in about 10 days’ time. By that time, we’ll probably have more cases than they will in some of those African countries.“And we are expecting this to be doubling about every two days at the moment, so if you do your maths – say, assumed it’s 1,000 at the moment, and you think it’s going to be doubling every two days, you can see that those numbers are going to be pretty (high) certainly in about 10 days’ time. By that time, we’ll probably have more cases than they will in some of those African countries.
“So I think these travel restrictions do perhaps have their place initially, when cases are really low here and really high in the other country, but when we reach that equilibrium, there’s very little point in having them in my opinion.”“So I think these travel restrictions do perhaps have their place initially, when cases are really low here and really high in the other country, but when we reach that equilibrium, there’s very little point in having them in my opinion.”
PA Media quotes him saying that data from the Zoe symptom study app suggests that about half of all cases at the moment of Delta are being “missed” because they are not presenting with “classic” Covid symptoms of fever, new and persistent cough and a loss or change of smell or taste.PA Media quotes him saying that data from the Zoe symptom study app suggests that about half of all cases at the moment of Delta are being “missed” because they are not presenting with “classic” Covid symptoms of fever, new and persistent cough and a loss or change of smell or taste.
“Omicron is probably more, much more similar to the mild variants we’re seeing in people who have been vaccinated with Delta than anything else,” he said.“Omicron is probably more, much more similar to the mild variants we’re seeing in people who have been vaccinated with Delta than anything else,” he said.
“And so it is going to be producing cold-like symptoms that people won’t recognise as Covid if they just believe the official government advice.”“And so it is going to be producing cold-like symptoms that people won’t recognise as Covid if they just believe the official government advice.”
Here’s a reminder of England’s current travel restriction red list.Here’s a reminder of England’s current travel restriction red list.
With the caveat that until scientists get more data, there is a lot of speculation around, but Dr Jeffrey Barrett, director of the Covid-19 genomics initiative at the Wellcome Sanger Institute, has agreed this morning with those suggesting that Omicron would take over from Delta in the UK as the dominant variant of coronavirus “within a matter of weeks”.With the caveat that until scientists get more data, there is a lot of speculation around, but Dr Jeffrey Barrett, director of the Covid-19 genomics initiative at the Wellcome Sanger Institute, has agreed this morning with those suggesting that Omicron would take over from Delta in the UK as the dominant variant of coronavirus “within a matter of weeks”.
PA Media quotes him telling the BBC Radio 4 Today programme: “I think we can now say that this variant is spreading faster in the UK than the Delta variant at the same time, and that’s something that I think was unclear until very recently. I am pretty confident that it’s going to take over probably in a matter of weeks.”PA Media quotes him telling the BBC Radio 4 Today programme: “I think we can now say that this variant is spreading faster in the UK than the Delta variant at the same time, and that’s something that I think was unclear until very recently. I am pretty confident that it’s going to take over probably in a matter of weeks.”
Asked about the implications of that, he said: “Well, we don’t know and that’s the really critical question, of course, is how many of those cases of which there will likely be a large number will lead to severe disease?Asked about the implications of that, he said: “Well, we don’t know and that’s the really critical question, of course, is how many of those cases of which there will likely be a large number will lead to severe disease?
“And a number of people including Dr Fauci have hypothesised that this variant may be more mild or less likely to cause severe disease than previous variants of the virus.“And a number of people including Dr Fauci have hypothesised that this variant may be more mild or less likely to cause severe disease than previous variants of the virus.
“I think what we have seen so far in South Africa, for example, is possibly consistent with that, but it’s really much too soon to say, and the reason for that is that this variant seems to be able to infect individuals who either have been vaccinated or previously have been infected.“I think what we have seen so far in South Africa, for example, is possibly consistent with that, but it’s really much too soon to say, and the reason for that is that this variant seems to be able to infect individuals who either have been vaccinated or previously have been infected.
“And we know that second infections or breakthrough infections of vaccinated individuals tend to be more mild. So the fact that so far we have seen not very many severe cases of Omicron, maybe because it is infecting these individuals with some amount of immunity and that’s good news that they aren’t having tonnes of severe disease, but I think it is too soon to assume that fundamentally Omicron is more mild than say Delta.”“And we know that second infections or breakthrough infections of vaccinated individuals tend to be more mild. So the fact that so far we have seen not very many severe cases of Omicron, maybe because it is infecting these individuals with some amount of immunity and that’s good news that they aren’t having tonnes of severe disease, but I think it is too soon to assume that fundamentally Omicron is more mild than say Delta.”
A quick one from Reuters here which sounds like good news. Britain’s GSK has released new data from early-stage studies, citing that its antibody-based Covid-19 therapy with US partner Vir is effective against all mutations of the new Omicron coronavirus variant.A quick one from Reuters here which sounds like good news. Britain’s GSK has released new data from early-stage studies, citing that its antibody-based Covid-19 therapy with US partner Vir is effective against all mutations of the new Omicron coronavirus variant.
The data, yet to be published in a peer-reviewed medical journal, shows that the companies’ treatment, sotrovimab, is effective against all 37 identified mutations to date in the spike protein, GSK said in a statement.The data, yet to be published in a peer-reviewed medical journal, shows that the companies’ treatment, sotrovimab, is effective against all 37 identified mutations to date in the spike protein, GSK said in a statement.
The justice secretary and former foreign secretary Dominic Raab was mostly questioned on Sky News this morning about the whistleblower report which has condemned the Foreign Office over its handling of the Kabul evacuation. However, there was time for him to be asked once again about allegations that there was a Christmas party at Downing Street last year while London was under tier three restrictions, which would have forbidden it.The justice secretary and former foreign secretary Dominic Raab was mostly questioned on Sky News this morning about the whistleblower report which has condemned the Foreign Office over its handling of the Kabul evacuation. However, there was time for him to be asked once again about allegations that there was a Christmas party at Downing Street last year while London was under tier three restrictions, which would have forbidden it.
He was asked about the contrasting approach outlined by policing minister Kit Malthouse yesterday, who said police should investigate, after Raab himself said on Sunday they do not look at historical crimes. This morning, Raab said:He was asked about the contrasting approach outlined by policing minister Kit Malthouse yesterday, who said police should investigate, after Raab himself said on Sunday they do not look at historical crimes. This morning, Raab said:
The Morrison government is considering citing Covid restrictions as a reason for officials to stay away from the Beijing Winter Olympics, as calls grow for Australia to follow the US in a diplomatic boycott.The Morrison government is considering citing Covid restrictions as a reason for officials to stay away from the Beijing Winter Olympics, as calls grow for Australia to follow the US in a diplomatic boycott.
Guardian Australia understands while an announcement could be made soon, the government is unlikely to take as strong a position as the Biden administration, which blasted China over “ongoing genocide and crimes against humanity”.Guardian Australia understands while an announcement could be made soon, the government is unlikely to take as strong a position as the Biden administration, which blasted China over “ongoing genocide and crimes against humanity”.
The Australian government was still considering the language to be used, with suggestions that it may not be presented as a boycott. Instead, it is weighing up saying officials will not go because Covid restrictions meant they would mostly be confined to their hotel rooms.The Australian government was still considering the language to be used, with suggestions that it may not be presented as a boycott. Instead, it is weighing up saying officials will not go because Covid restrictions meant they would mostly be confined to their hotel rooms.
The New Zealand government said on Tuesday it would not send diplomatic representatives at a ministerial level to the Winter Olympics, citing “a range of factors but mostly to do with Covid”.The New Zealand government said on Tuesday it would not send diplomatic representatives at a ministerial level to the Winter Olympics, citing “a range of factors but mostly to do with Covid”.
Read more of Daniel Hurst’s report here: Australia may use Covid restrictions to justify diplomatic boycott of Beijing Winter OlympicsRead more of Daniel Hurst’s report here: Australia may use Covid restrictions to justify diplomatic boycott of Beijing Winter Olympics
People in counties that voted for Donald Trump are nearly three times more likely to die from Covid-19 than those who live in counties that voted for Joe Biden, according to a study by National Public Radio.People in counties that voted for Donald Trump are nearly three times more likely to die from Covid-19 than those who live in counties that voted for Joe Biden, according to a study by National Public Radio.
NPR examined deaths per 100,000 people in about 3,000 counties across the US since May 2021. According to NPR, 1 May was chosen as the start date as it is roughly the time when vaccines became universally available to adults.NPR examined deaths per 100,000 people in about 3,000 counties across the US since May 2021. According to NPR, 1 May was chosen as the start date as it is roughly the time when vaccines became universally available to adults.
The study found that areas that voted for Trump by at least 60% in November 2020 had death rates 2.7 times higher than counties that voted heavily for Biden.The study found that areas that voted for Trump by at least 60% in November 2020 had death rates 2.7 times higher than counties that voted heavily for Biden.
The study also found that counties that voted for Trump by an even higher percentage had lower vaccination rates and higher Covid-19 death rates.The study also found that counties that voted for Trump by an even higher percentage had lower vaccination rates and higher Covid-19 death rates.
Charles Gaba, an independent analyst who helped review NPR’s methodology, said that in October, the reddest 10th of the country saw death rates six times higher than the bluest 10th.Charles Gaba, an independent analyst who helped review NPR’s methodology, said that in October, the reddest 10th of the country saw death rates six times higher than the bluest 10th.
“Those numbers have dropped slightly in recent weeks,” he said. “It’s back down to 5.5 times higher.”“Those numbers have dropped slightly in recent weeks,” he said. “It’s back down to 5.5 times higher.”
Read more of Maya Yang’s report here: People in counties that voted Trump more likely to die from Covid – studyRead more of Maya Yang’s report here: People in counties that voted Trump more likely to die from Covid – study
Hello, it is Martin Belam here in London taking over from Samantha Lock in Sydney. It is the Dominic Raab, the justice secretary, doing the media round for the government today. I shall have some quotes from him in due course. Here’s a reminder of the UK Covid situation.Hello, it is Martin Belam here in London taking over from Samantha Lock in Sydney. It is the Dominic Raab, the justice secretary, doing the media round for the government today. I shall have some quotes from him in due course. Here’s a reminder of the UK Covid situation.
Over the last seven days there have been 330,918 new coronavirus cases recorded in the UK. Cases have increased by 9.1% week-on-week.Over the last seven days there have been 330,918 new coronavirus cases recorded in the UK. Cases have increased by 9.1% week-on-week.
There have been 836 deaths recorded in the last week. Deaths have decreased by 0.2% week-on-week.There have been 836 deaths recorded in the last week. Deaths have decreased by 0.2% week-on-week.
Hospital admissions have decreased by 0.8% week-on-week. At the latest count on the UK government’s own dashboard, there were 7,268 people in hospital in total, of whom 900 are in ventilation beds.Hospital admissions have decreased by 0.8% week-on-week. At the latest count on the UK government’s own dashboard, there were 7,268 people in hospital in total, of whom 900 are in ventilation beds.
UK hospitals have cancelled at least 13,000 operations over the last two months as they struggle to cope with record demand for NHS care and people sick with Covid-19.UK hospitals have cancelled at least 13,000 operations over the last two months as they struggle to cope with record demand for NHS care and people sick with Covid-19.
Figures collected by A&E doctors showed that 13,061 planned surgeries had to be called off during October and November because of shortages of beds and staff.Figures collected by A&E doctors showed that 13,061 planned surgeries had to be called off during October and November because of shortages of beds and staff.
However, the cancellations occurred at just 40 of the several hundred NHS hospitals across the four home nations, so those 13,061 are likely to be a major underestimate of the scale of the problem.However, the cancellations occurred at just 40 of the several hundred NHS hospitals across the four home nations, so those 13,061 are likely to be a major underestimate of the scale of the problem.
Dr Adrian Boyle, a vice-president of the Royal College of Emergency Medicine (RCEM), which published the data, said the cancellations represented “a stark warning for the months ahead”.Dr Adrian Boyle, a vice-president of the Royal College of Emergency Medicine (RCEM), which published the data, said the cancellations represented “a stark warning for the months ahead”.
Read the full story here.Read the full story here.
The Cook Islands, a tiny country in the Pacific, has managed to avoid any cases of Covid-19 throughout the pandemic.The Cook Islands, a tiny country in the Pacific, has managed to avoid any cases of Covid-19 throughout the pandemic.
On Friday, the country announced its first case: a 10-year-old boy who arrived on a flight from Auckland to Rarotonga, the main island in the country. After days of panic, the case has been declared a false alarm.On Friday, the country announced its first case: a 10-year-old boy who arrived on a flight from Auckland to Rarotonga, the main island in the country. After days of panic, the case has been declared a false alarm.
“I was honestly going to quit my job and stay home when I found out it was a positive case. I was shocked and scared at the same time,” said Ake Vailoa, who works as a shopkeeper for a small store on the edge of Rarotonga’s main town.“I was honestly going to quit my job and stay home when I found out it was a positive case. I was shocked and scared at the same time,” said Ake Vailoa, who works as a shopkeeper for a small store on the edge of Rarotonga’s main town.
Read the full story here.Read the full story here.
Ukraine has just released their Covid numbers for the past 24 hours.Ukraine has just released their Covid numbers for the past 24 hours.
Another 8,655 new cases of coronavirus were recorded for Monday, 6 December.Another 8,655 new cases of coronavirus were recorded for Monday, 6 December.
A further 467 deaths were also reported, according to a statement from the ministry of health.A further 467 deaths were also reported, according to a statement from the ministry of health.
The Omicron variant of coronavirus is likely to be more widespread in the UK than official numbers suggest owing to patchy monitoring and a time lag in the data, scientists and officials have said.The Omicron variant of coronavirus is likely to be more widespread in the UK than official numbers suggest owing to patchy monitoring and a time lag in the data, scientists and officials have said.
Ministers said 336 cases had been identified by whole-genome sequencing, but experts said numbers were expected to be much higher given the variant’s potential for exponential growth and the fact it takes five to seven days for a case to be confirmed.Ministers said 336 cases had been identified by whole-genome sequencing, but experts said numbers were expected to be much higher given the variant’s potential for exponential growth and the fact it takes five to seven days for a case to be confirmed.
All international arrivals to the UK are now required to take a pre-departure Covid-19 test to tackle the new Omicron variant.All international arrivals to the UK are now required to take a pre-departure Covid-19 test to tackle the new Omicron variant.
Thailand is hoping to forge a more sustainable model of tourism as the country reopens to visitors.Thailand is hoping to forge a more sustainable model of tourism as the country reopens to visitors.
New York City has expanded its array of Covid-19 mandates on Monday, setting vaccine requirements for children as young as 5 years old. This is on top of the mandates required for all private employees.New York City has expanded its array of Covid-19 mandates on Monday, setting vaccine requirements for children as young as 5 years old. This is on top of the mandates required for all private employees.
In France, a combination of vaccination booster shots and more rigorous social distancing is hoped to avoid renewed lockdowns or curfews. Nightclubs will be shut for four weeks and requirements for mask-wearing in schools will be tightened.In France, a combination of vaccination booster shots and more rigorous social distancing is hoped to avoid renewed lockdowns or curfews. Nightclubs will be shut for four weeks and requirements for mask-wearing in schools will be tightened.
The Netherlands is drafting in soldiers to support hospitals as Covid cases surge.The Netherlands is drafting in soldiers to support hospitals as Covid cases surge.
India has reported another 6,822 new coronavirus cases, the lowest figures in 558 days.India has reported another 6,822 new coronavirus cases, the lowest figures in 558 days.
A leading infectious diseases specialist who monitors variants for a research collaboration led by Harvard Medical School believes the world is seeing “what appears to be a signal of exponential increase of Omicron over Delta” where Omicron is “likely to become the dominant strain in the coming weeks and months”.A leading infectious diseases specialist who monitors variants for a research collaboration led by Harvard Medical School believes the world is seeing “what appears to be a signal of exponential increase of Omicron over Delta” where Omicron is “likely to become the dominant strain in the coming weeks and months”.
How fast is the Omicron variant spreading?How fast is the Omicron variant spreading?
Over 40 countries have now confirmed the presence of Omicron. And, in the UK, scientists have been increasingly expressing their concern about the new variant. Some have speculated there could be more than 1,000 cases here already, and that it could become the dominant variant within weeks.Over 40 countries have now confirmed the presence of Omicron. And, in the UK, scientists have been increasingly expressing their concern about the new variant. Some have speculated there could be more than 1,000 cases here already, and that it could become the dominant variant within weeks.
To get an update on what we know about the Omicron variant, and how quickly it might be spreading, Madeleine Finlay speaks to Nicola Davis, the Guardian’s science correspondent.To get an update on what we know about the Omicron variant, and how quickly it might be spreading, Madeleine Finlay speaks to Nicola Davis, the Guardian’s science correspondent.
Listen to the Guardian’s latest Science Weekly podcast here.Listen to the Guardian’s latest Science Weekly podcast here.
Mexico City officials will begin offering a third Covid-19 vaccine dose to residents over the age of 60 on Tuesday, officials said, part of a government plan to roll out booster shots, Reuters reports.Mexico City officials will begin offering a third Covid-19 vaccine dose to residents over the age of 60 on Tuesday, officials said, part of a government plan to roll out booster shots, Reuters reports.
President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said last week the third doses would be made available as soon as possible, beginning with elderly people who are more vulnerable to the coronavirus.President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said last week the third doses would be made available as soon as possible, beginning with elderly people who are more vulnerable to the coronavirus.
The first booster shots in the massive capital of nearly 10 million people will be AstraZeneca doses given to residents of the southern Tlalpan neighbourhood, officials told a news conference on Monday. To be eligible, people must have had an initial two doses six months ago.The first booster shots in the massive capital of nearly 10 million people will be AstraZeneca doses given to residents of the southern Tlalpan neighbourhood, officials told a news conference on Monday. To be eligible, people must have had an initial two doses six months ago.
The health ministry on Monday reported 110 more deaths from Covid-19 and 752 new cases, bringing the death toll since the pandemic began to 295,312 and total infections to 3,902,015.The health ministry on Monday reported 110 more deaths from Covid-19 and 752 new cases, bringing the death toll since the pandemic began to 295,312 and total infections to 3,902,015.