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How Britain eats its way through recession How Britain eats its way through recession
(1 day later)
Britain eats its way through recessions. When the going gets tough, the tough, it seems, tuck into pudding, says Michael Blastland in his regular column.Britain eats its way through recessions. When the going gets tough, the tough, it seems, tuck into pudding, says Michael Blastland in his regular column.
Though we may cut back on many things, food is - mostly - off limits. Ah, the taste of bacon on the morning the GDP figures are released. You must have felt the craving.Though we may cut back on many things, food is - mostly - off limits. Ah, the taste of bacon on the morning the GDP figures are released. You must have felt the craving.
The chart compares food with transport - which includes buying new cars. It goes back some time, but the story is the same. The red line (transport) swings around, the blue line (food) doesn't. As each recession bites, we bite back. Consumption of food is largely untouched.The chart compares food with transport - which includes buying new cars. It goes back some time, but the story is the same. The red line (transport) swings around, the blue line (food) doesn't. As each recession bites, we bite back. Consumption of food is largely untouched.
Transport spending tends to fall, sometimes sharply. It's been the same in this recession too. Food sales have been robust. Car sales fell off a cliff.Transport spending tends to fall, sometimes sharply. It's been the same in this recession too. Food sales have been robust. Car sales fell off a cliff.
What's the story here? Could it be that depression leads us by the nose to the biscuit tin? Are we simply comfort eating?What's the story here? Could it be that depression leads us by the nose to the biscuit tin? Are we simply comfort eating?
Maybe. But there's another possibility that has profound implications for the way we understand what happens to the economy - in good times and bad - and for how it might behave in future.Maybe. But there's another possibility that has profound implications for the way we understand what happens to the economy - in good times and bad - and for how it might behave in future.
Grim economic headlines? Pass the custardGrim economic headlines? Pass the custard
We have to eat. There's a bottom line for food consumption that we'll do almost anything to protect. If we're worried about money, it's elsewhere that we look for savings, for perhaps obvious reasons.We have to eat. There's a bottom line for food consumption that we'll do almost anything to protect. If we're worried about money, it's elsewhere that we look for savings, for perhaps obvious reasons.
If you're economising, putting off the new car you planned this year seems to make more sense than going on a diet. It's the big-ticket items that are deferred, maybe with the thought that they can be enjoyed next year instead, if and when times improve.If you're economising, putting off the new car you planned this year seems to make more sense than going on a diet. It's the big-ticket items that are deferred, maybe with the thought that they can be enjoyed next year instead, if and when times improve.
It's true that food consumption is not entirely unscathed this time. There are reports of people switching to cheaper brands for example.It's true that food consumption is not entirely unscathed this time. There are reports of people switching to cheaper brands for example.
But this recession, like others, has been fascinating for the robust performance of food sales, with some of our supermarkets doing a roaring trade throughout the year.But this recession, like others, has been fascinating for the robust performance of food sales, with some of our supermarkets doing a roaring trade throughout the year.
One puzzle is that many commentators have found this a puzzle. So used have we become to thinking of retail as the engine of the UK economy that many eyes were turned here for evidence of economic collapse. Every little turn down in the numbers was seized as evidence.One puzzle is that many commentators have found this a puzzle. So used have we become to thinking of retail as the engine of the UK economy that many eyes were turned here for evidence of economic collapse. Every little turn down in the numbers was seized as evidence.
But the retail crash didn't happen, largely because of the resilience of food sales. And of course, all numbers vary from month to month.But the retail crash didn't happen, largely because of the resilience of food sales. And of course, all numbers vary from month to month.
So sometimes they also took a turn up. When they did, as they often have this past year, "analysts" have reportedly declared themselves "surprised". Past data should have taught us something.So sometimes they also took a turn up. When they did, as they often have this past year, "analysts" have reportedly declared themselves "surprised". Past data should have taught us something.
Worried yet?Worried yet?
But this food fact could also be an indication of something threatening, in a roundabout way. Here's a little hypothesis. Let me know what you think.But this food fact could also be an indication of something threatening, in a roundabout way. Here's a little hypothesis. Let me know what you think.
As we become richer - and we have become very much richer over the decades - we spend a smaller proportion of our money on basics, like food, and a larger proportion on items that are to some extent discretionary, like new cars. In the chart, the transport line has been rising much faster than the food line.As we become richer - and we have become very much richer over the decades - we spend a smaller proportion of our money on basics, like food, and a larger proportion on items that are to some extent discretionary, like new cars. In the chart, the transport line has been rising much faster than the food line.
When recession strikes, spending on basics holds up best. It's discretionary spending that's clobbered. But since more of our spending is discretionary nowadays, the clobbering can take a bigger toll on the economy overall.When recession strikes, spending on basics holds up best. It's discretionary spending that's clobbered. But since more of our spending is discretionary nowadays, the clobbering can take a bigger toll on the economy overall.
So perhaps there are underlying forces in the economy that suggest the swings could become more pronounced as an ever larger proportion of our spending becomes discretionary and we react to the gloom or optimism by switching it off or on.So perhaps there are underlying forces in the economy that suggest the swings could become more pronounced as an ever larger proportion of our spending becomes discretionary and we react to the gloom or optimism by switching it off or on.
Think of it like a cake, with cream on top. The cream is getting thicker for every generation, and that's how we've grown to expect life to be, so when a sudden gust blows the cream away…Think of it like a cake, with cream on top. The cream is getting thicker for every generation, and that's how we've grown to expect life to be, so when a sudden gust blows the cream away…
Slightly unnerving, isn't it, if true.Slightly unnerving, isn't it, if true.
Chocolate, anyone?Chocolate, anyone?

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