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No winners in degree place fight No winners in degree place fight
(6 days later)
By Mike Baker About 50,000 extra students have applied so far this yearBy Mike Baker About 50,000 extra students have applied so far this year
This year's squeeze on university places could hardly have come at a worse time for the government.This year's squeeze on university places could hardly have come at a worse time for the government.
In other circumstances, ministers might have welcomed the jump in university admissions.In other circumstances, ministers might have welcomed the jump in university admissions.
After all, it has been trying for the past decade to increase the number of people who aspire to a university education.After all, it has been trying for the past decade to increase the number of people who aspire to a university education.
In 1999, to widespread ridicule from political opponents, Prime Minister Tony Blair set the ambitious target of getting 50% of young people into higher education by 2010.In 1999, to widespread ridicule from political opponents, Prime Minister Tony Blair set the ambitious target of getting 50% of young people into higher education by 2010.
Although that target has looked out of reach for some time, the jump in student applications this year could have been seen as vindication of the government's ambition.Although that target has looked out of reach for some time, the jump in student applications this year could have been seen as vindication of the government's ambition.
Ministers could have been putting up the flags to celebrate a solid rise in the numbers of young people wanting to enter higher education.Ministers could have been putting up the flags to celebrate a solid rise in the numbers of young people wanting to enter higher education.
So it must be particularly galling for them that this year's spending squeeze is set to prevent what would otherwise have been a really significant jump in the university participation rate.So it must be particularly galling for them that this year's spending squeeze is set to prevent what would otherwise have been a really significant jump in the university participation rate.
However, it is worth noting that those who derided the 50% target as "social engineering" - large sections of the Conservative Party and the media - are the very same ones who are today championing the cause of those students who will "lose out" in the scramble for places this summer.However, it is worth noting that those who derided the 50% target as "social engineering" - large sections of the Conservative Party and the media - are the very same ones who are today championing the cause of those students who will "lose out" in the scramble for places this summer.
They are also the same ones who have been complaining that it has become too easy to get into university.They are also the same ones who have been complaining that it has become too easy to get into university.
Logically, they should be greeting this year's situation as a welcome return to a tougher selection process.Logically, they should be greeting this year's situation as a welcome return to a tougher selection process.
After all, critics of government policy have long argued that not everyone should be able to go to university.After all, critics of government policy have long argued that not everyone should be able to go to university.
The irony of the situation, though, is no consolation for the government.The irony of the situation, though, is no consolation for the government.
Headlines suggesting there will be 50,000 disappointed applicants (and in many cases disappointed parents too) are hardly welcome in the run-up to a general election.Headlines suggesting there will be 50,000 disappointed applicants (and in many cases disappointed parents too) are hardly welcome in the run-up to a general election.
'More young people''More young people'
Ministers are reported to be looking at ways of trying to get universities to offer more places this year but - crucially - are not yet offering them any more money to do so.Ministers are reported to be looking at ways of trying to get universities to offer more places this year but - crucially - are not yet offering them any more money to do so.
But, amid the current hype over a crisis in university admissions, what is the bigger picture?But, amid the current hype over a crisis in university admissions, what is the bigger picture?
Most commentators have blamed the recession for this year's squeeze on places, arguing that more young people are applying to university because there are no jobs available.Most commentators have blamed the recession for this year's squeeze on places, arguing that more young people are applying to university because there are no jobs available.
While this may be a part of the reason, the fact is that applications have been steadily rising for some years now.While this may be a part of the reason, the fact is that applications have been steadily rising for some years now.
The rise began well before the recession started to bite.The rise began well before the recession started to bite.
And part of the reason for this is terribly obvious: there are simply more young people in the population in the age group that provides the bulk of university applications, namely 18 to 20-year-olds.And part of the reason for this is terribly obvious: there are simply more young people in the population in the age group that provides the bulk of university applications, namely 18 to 20-year-olds.
The high birth rates in the mid to late 1980s mean that for the past few years we have seen a rising number of 18-year-olds leaving school and college.The high birth rates in the mid to late 1980s mean that for the past few years we have seen a rising number of 18-year-olds leaving school and college.
Unless other things change, in a few years time universities will have to start cutting their capacity Mike Baker Unless other things change, in a few years universities will have to start cutting their capacity Mike Baker
2009 and 2010 are the high points of the demographic tide.2009 and 2010 are the high points of the demographic tide.
So, population numbers alone meant it was always going to be a tough time for admissions.So, population numbers alone meant it was always going to be a tough time for admissions.
However, that high tide is about to go out again, and fast.However, that high tide is about to go out again, and fast.
According to figures from the Higher Education Policy Institute, the numbers in the 18 to 20 age group will fall by more than 13% over the next decade.According to figures from the Higher Education Policy Institute, the numbers in the 18 to 20 age group will fall by more than 13% over the next decade.
This means that by 2020 there will be a staggering 300,000 fewer 18 to 20-year-olds in the pool of potential university applicants.This means that by 2020 there will be a staggering 300,000 fewer 18 to 20-year-olds in the pool of potential university applicants.
That will be the lowest number since Tony Blair set his 50% target in 1999.That will be the lowest number since Tony Blair set his 50% target in 1999.
So, unless other things change, in a few years universities will have to start cutting their capacity.So, unless other things change, in a few years universities will have to start cutting their capacity.
That is one reason why they are reluctant to expand now, without assurance of more government money.That is one reason why they are reluctant to expand now, without assurance of more government money.
'Financial necessity''Financial necessity'
All of this provides an interesting background to the review of student fees, which is due to get under way before the end of the year.All of this provides an interesting background to the review of student fees, which is due to get under way before the end of the year.
The government has already gently floated one interesting idea: Providing "free" university tuition to students who live at home and do not apply for a student maintenance loan.The government has already gently floated one interesting idea: Providing "free" university tuition to students who live at home and do not apply for a student maintenance loan.
This "no-fee degree" idea has some serious problems.This "no-fee degree" idea has some serious problems.
For a start, it will seem unfair to many.For a start, it will seem unfair to many.
Think about this scenario: two students on the same course discover that one is paying over £3,000 a year for their tuition, while the other is paying nothing.Think about this scenario: two students on the same course discover that one is paying over £3,000 a year for their tuition, while the other is paying nothing.
Moreover, the student who is paying nothing is the one from a wealthy home, where there is enough spare money and space for them to live comfortably with their parents without needing to take out a loan for living costs.Moreover, the student who is paying nothing is the one from a wealthy home, where there is enough spare money and space for them to live comfortably with their parents without needing to take out a loan for living costs.
That is not going to seem very fair to the student from the poorer home who is both paying fees and having to take out a loan for living costs.That is not going to seem very fair to the student from the poorer home who is both paying fees and having to take out a loan for living costs.
The other problem is that it is likely to accelerate the trend towards students going to their local university and living at home.The other problem is that it is likely to accelerate the trend towards students going to their local university and living at home.
In an era when young people seem to find it increasingly hard to break away from home support, that seems a shame.In an era when young people seem to find it increasingly hard to break away from home support, that seems a shame.
The years away at university are a great opportunity to learn how to live independently alongside others who are also experimenting with new freedoms and, inevitably, making similar mistakes.The years away at university are a great opportunity to learn how to live independently alongside others who are also experimenting with new freedoms and, inevitably, making similar mistakes.
It would also be a shame if growing numbers of students from poorer backgrounds see the "no-fee degree" option as a financial necessity and decide to limit their ambition to universities that happen to be close to their parental home.It would also be a shame if growing numbers of students from poorer backgrounds see the "no-fee degree" option as a financial necessity and decide to limit their ambition to universities that happen to be close to their parental home.
Do we really want very able students from Cumbria, Cornwall or Suffolk to feel they cannot afford to apply to universities in London, Oxford or Cambridge?Do we really want very able students from Cumbria, Cornwall or Suffolk to feel they cannot afford to apply to universities in London, Oxford or Cambridge?
In short, the "free tuition/no loan" policy could seriously damage equal opportunities, undermine the push towards widening participation, and increase the sense of inequity.In short, the "free tuition/no loan" policy could seriously damage equal opportunities, undermine the push towards widening participation, and increase the sense of inequity.
Mike Baker is a journalist and broadcaster specialising in educationMike Baker is a journalist and broadcaster specialising in education