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UK inflation dips to 1.8% in June | UK inflation dips to 1.8% in June |
(30 minutes later) | |
A key measure of inflation has fallen below the Bank of England's target rate of 2% for the first time since 2007. | |
Lower food prices caused the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) to drop to an annual rate of 1.8% in June from 2.2% in May, official statistics showed. | |
The Retail Prices Index (RPI) inflation measure, which includes mortgage interest payments and housing costs, fell to -1.6% from -1.1%. | |
The RPI is now at its lowest since ONS records started in 1948. | The RPI is now at its lowest since ONS records started in 1948. |
Consensus | Consensus |
Lower prices for meat, milk and fruit last month were the main reason for the fall in inflation. | Lower prices for meat, milk and fruit last month were the main reason for the fall in inflation. |
INFLATION CALCULATOR class="" href="/2/hi/business/7669072.stm">Check your personal inflation rate | |
"A significant downward effect also came from furniture prices, which rose by less than last year," the Office for National Statistics said. | |
It also pointed to a large upward pressure on the CPI rate from the recreation and culture sector, with computer games in particular rising by more than a year ago. | It also pointed to a large upward pressure on the CPI rate from the recreation and culture sector, with computer games in particular rising by more than a year ago. |
The CPI is far below what it was last September, when the rate hit 5.2% because of high oil and food prices. | The CPI is far below what it was last September, when the rate hit 5.2% because of high oil and food prices. |
The Bank of England is now predicting CPI will fall below 1% this year, as the downturn hits demand and sends prices lower. | The Bank of England is now predicting CPI will fall below 1% this year, as the downturn hits demand and sends prices lower. |
"The figures are bang on consensus," said economist Philip Shaw of Investec. | "The figures are bang on consensus," said economist Philip Shaw of Investec. |
To call this a period of deflation would be totally wrong Philip Shaw, economist at Investec class="" href="/2/hi/business/7844962.stm">UK recession tracker: Inflation | |
"We note that food prices fell back on the month and the increase in petrol prices was a little less than we'd factored in." | "We note that food prices fell back on the month and the increase in petrol prices was a little less than we'd factored in." |
He added that the RPI measure was negative because of "aggressive" cuts in interest rates since last autumn. | He added that the RPI measure was negative because of "aggressive" cuts in interest rates since last autumn. |
Interest rates are now at a record low of 0.5%. | Interest rates are now at a record low of 0.5%. |
"To call this a period of deflation would be totally wrong," he said | |
But not everyone agreed. | |
David Kern, head economist at the British Chambers of Commerce said: "The figures confirm the BCC's assessment that in the short-term, the main policy priority must be countering the risks posed by recession and deflation". | |
In the near future the BBC is urging the Bank of England to expand the scale of quantitative easing well beyond £125bn. | |
Having lowered interest rates sharply the government has aimed to increase the amount of money circulating to boost the economy, though quantitative easing. | |
Stephen Bell, of hedge fund GLC, said: "Underlying inflation will remain low for some time, which is good news for home [loan] borrowers." | |
While it will be a "long hard struggle to recovery" he said the positive message was that the UK economy was recovering faster than other economies. |