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Call to close schools to curb flu Call to close schools to curb flu
(about 5 hours later)
Ministers have been asked to consider closing schools this autumn to help curb the number of swine flu cases.Ministers have been asked to consider closing schools this autumn to help curb the number of swine flu cases.
Scientists from Imperial College London say studies suggest it could reduce the number of infections by up to 45%. Imperial College London scientists said there were pros and cons to the move, but it could help slow the spread of cases and buy more time for a vaccine.
Professor Neil Ferguson and Dr Simon Cauchemez, who put forward the idea in a paper in the Lancet, say the move may buy enough time to produce a vaccine. However, they acknowledged it would not reduce the overall number of infections in the end and could case a great deal of disruption.
Schools Secretary Ed Balls said closing schools would not contain the virus's spread as it was already established. The government said it was not convinced of the benefits of closures.
In their Lancet paper, the scientists wrote: "The [swine flu] pandemic could become more severe, and so the current cautious approach of not necessarily recommending school closure in Europe and North America might need reappraisal in the autumn." School closures are part of the government's flu contingency plans and they were used in the early days when swine flu was beginning to spread.
'Strong arguments' 'Not that effective'
Professor Ferguson and Dr Cauchemez quoted a recent French study which suggested "proactively" closing schools could reduce flu cases by 13% to 17% overall, and by between 38% and 45% during the outbreak's peak. But Chief Medical Officer Sir Liam Donaldson said the experience so far, particularly in the West Midlands where several schools were closed, showed it had "not been effective at controlling the virus".
There were "strong arguments" for ministers to close schools because children appeared to be more susceptible to the virus than adults, they said. He added: "I think it would take a lot for us to move in that direction, it would be extremely disruptive to society - when would you open them again, given that flu might be around for several months."
But he said the option of school closures would still be kept under review.
The researchers acknowledged closures could cause problems. They said up to a third of the health and social care workforce were the main carers for dependent children and may have to take time off if schools closed, compromising the ability of the NHS to cope with flu patients.
The experts also said a 12-week closure could wipe 6% of GDP, the Lancet Infectious Diseases journal reported.
But they also said it could slow transmission of the virus, particularly during peak weeks when pressure would be greatest, as well as buying more time for the roll-out of the vaccine.
Lead researcher Professor Neil Ferguson said: "The [swine flu] pandemic could become more severe, and so the current cautious approach of not necessarily recommending school closure in Europe and North America might need reappraisal in the autumn."
Meanwhile, another Lancet report suggested that swine flu vaccine may not work as well in patients who also have cancer or HIV or who are on kidney dialysis.
The report said the potential problem was related to their weaker immune systems.
SWINE FLU SYMPTOMS 1. High temperature, tiredness and lowered immunity2. Headache, runny nose and sneezing3. Sore throat4. Shortness of breath5. Loss of appetite, vomiting and diarrhoea6. Aching muscles, limb and joint pain Source: NHS Fergus on Flu Q&A: The flu service China swine flu pupils releasedSWINE FLU SYMPTOMS 1. High temperature, tiredness and lowered immunity2. Headache, runny nose and sneezing3. Sore throat4. Shortness of breath5. Loss of appetite, vomiting and diarrhoea6. Aching muscles, limb and joint pain Source: NHS Fergus on Flu Q&A: The flu service China swine flu pupils released
Breaking the "chains of transmission" in this way would not only reduce the number of cases, but also slow down the epidemic, allowing more time for vaccine production, they argued.
It would also limit the stress on healthcare systems and reduce the number of people taking sick leave, increasing what they call "community-wide resilience".
However, Mr Balls told the Guardian there was "no longer" a case for closing schools because the virus was already established in the UK.
But he added: "We will be monitoring the situation closely over the school holidays and will review the evidence in late August."
On Monday, Health Secretary Andy Burnham announced a national flu service would be launched later this week in England to relieve the pressure on the health service.On Monday, Health Secretary Andy Burnham announced a national flu service would be launched later this week in England to relieve the pressure on the health service.
He said the phone and website service would be able to provide flu diagnosis and access to drugs without the need to go to GPs.He said the phone and website service would be able to provide flu diagnosis and access to drugs without the need to go to GPs.
He also defended the government against claims from opposition parties that the service was a month late.He also defended the government against claims from opposition parties that the service was a month late.
He said the government had wanted to wait until the health service was under intense pressure before acting.He said the government had wanted to wait until the health service was under intense pressure before acting.
'Use own judgement''Use own judgement'
Responding to claims of conflicting advice for pregnant women, Mr Burnham denied the guidance had changed since the start of the outbreak.Responding to claims of conflicting advice for pregnant women, Mr Burnham denied the guidance had changed since the start of the outbreak.
Reports at the weekend suggested women should consider not getting pregnant and those that already were should avoid crowded places.Reports at the weekend suggested women should consider not getting pregnant and those that already were should avoid crowded places.
But Mr Burnham said the official advice was that women should think carefully about unnecessary travel and mixing with crowds.But Mr Burnham said the official advice was that women should think carefully about unnecessary travel and mixing with crowds.
He added the advice was "not hard and fast" and said people should use their own judgement and not alter their daily routines or avoid going to work.He added the advice was "not hard and fast" and said people should use their own judgement and not alter their daily routines or avoid going to work.
Twenty-nine people have now died in the UK after contracting swine flu - 26 in England and three in Scotland.Twenty-nine people have now died in the UK after contracting swine flu - 26 in England and three in Scotland.
Meanwhile in China, the first batch of British school pupils quarantined at a Beijing hotel after coming into contact with students diagnosed with swine flu have been released.Meanwhile in China, the first batch of British school pupils quarantined at a Beijing hotel after coming into contact with students diagnosed with swine flu have been released.
A total of 21 students and two teachers were allowed to leave the Yanxiang Hotel early on Tuesday after spending seven days in quarantine.A total of 21 students and two teachers were allowed to leave the Yanxiang Hotel early on Tuesday after spending seven days in quarantine.
The government has warned that the number of deaths from the virus this winter in the UK could reach between 19,000 and 65,000.The government has warned that the number of deaths from the virus this winter in the UK could reach between 19,000 and 65,000.
But it has stressed these are worst-case scenarios and compare to the 12,000 seasonal flu deaths seen each year on average.But it has stressed these are worst-case scenarios and compare to the 12,000 seasonal flu deaths seen each year on average.