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| Version 2 | Version 3 |
|---|---|
| Honduras crisis reflects regional battle | Honduras crisis reflects regional battle |
| (about 10 hours later) | |
| Honduras has been in crisis ever since President Manuel Zelaya was ousted by opponents who objected to his proposals for constitutional change. | Honduras has been in crisis ever since President Manuel Zelaya was ousted by opponents who objected to his proposals for constitutional change. |
| The conflict reflects the battle between left and right in Latin America, argues George Philip, Professor of Comparative and Latin American Politics at the London School of Economics. | |
| Manuel Zelaya has moved closer to Venezuela's Hugo Chavez recently | Manuel Zelaya has moved closer to Venezuela's Hugo Chavez recently |
| In Latin America, as elsewhere, constitutional conflicts tend to reflect battles for power. | In Latin America, as elsewhere, constitutional conflicts tend to reflect battles for power. |
| The crisis in Honduras also appears to follow this pattern. | The crisis in Honduras also appears to follow this pattern. |
| It was triggered when Mr Zelaya sought to hold a non-binding public consultation to ask people whether they supported efforts to change the constitution, a move his critics perceived as an attempt to remove the current one-term limit on serving as president. | It was triggered when Mr Zelaya sought to hold a non-binding public consultation to ask people whether they supported efforts to change the constitution, a move his critics perceived as an attempt to remove the current one-term limit on serving as president. |
| For some people, most prominently Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, the conflict in Honduras is a battle between left and right. | For some people, most prominently Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, the conflict in Honduras is a battle between left and right. |
| According to this interpretation, the left, led by Mr Zelaya, is seeking a strong presidency able to lead a process of political and social transformation, while conservatives, like Roberto Micheletti, the interim president of Honduras, want a weaker executive, amply checked by the congress and the courts. | According to this interpretation, the left, led by Mr Zelaya, is seeking a strong presidency able to lead a process of political and social transformation, while conservatives, like Roberto Micheletti, the interim president of Honduras, want a weaker executive, amply checked by the congress and the courts. |
| The conflict over presidential term limits, though not the only factor in making or inhibiting a strong presidency, at least partially reflects this difference of viewpoint. | The conflict over presidential term limits, though not the only factor in making or inhibiting a strong presidency, at least partially reflects this difference of viewpoint. |
| The United States has a somewhat different perspective. | The United States has a somewhat different perspective. |
| President Barack Obama is trying to show that his government is committed to democratic governance in Latin America whoever is involved. | President Barack Obama is trying to show that his government is committed to democratic governance in Latin America whoever is involved. |
| He has pointedly been refusing to engage in a duel with Hugo Chavez, whether over Honduras or anything else. | He has pointedly been refusing to engage in a duel with Hugo Chavez, whether over Honduras or anything else. |
| For Mr Obama, the key issue is legitimation. He wants the US government to lose its historical reputation as a regional bully. | For Mr Obama, the key issue is legitimation. He wants the US government to lose its historical reputation as a regional bully. |
| But Mr Obama wants to be a non-interventionist and a promoter of democracy as well as a good neighbour. Institutional conflicts within Latin America may make this more difficult. | But Mr Obama wants to be a non-interventionist and a promoter of democracy as well as a good neighbour. Institutional conflicts within Latin America may make this more difficult. |
| Second terms | Second terms |
| The issue of presidential re-election has recently become salient across the region. | The issue of presidential re-election has recently become salient across the region. |
| Although all countries' stories are different, there have already been a number of votes relating directly or indirectly to this issue. | Although all countries' stories are different, there have already been a number of votes relating directly or indirectly to this issue. |
| The slogan of the Mexican Revolution - 'sufragio efectivo, no re-eleccion' (an effective vote and no re-election) - was seen as democratising | The slogan of the Mexican Revolution - 'sufragio efectivo, no re-eleccion' (an effective vote and no re-election) - was seen as democratising |
| Historically, the idea of no re-election was intended to limit the advantages of presidential incumbency in countries where other forms of political accountability were weak. | Historically, the idea of no re-election was intended to limit the advantages of presidential incumbency in countries where other forms of political accountability were weak. |
| Originally, presidents could do pretty much what they liked so long as they kept sufficient support within the military. | Originally, presidents could do pretty much what they liked so long as they kept sufficient support within the military. |
| The slogan of the Mexican Revolution - 'sufragio efectivo, no re-eleccion' (an effective vote and no re-election) - was seen as democratising. | The slogan of the Mexican Revolution - 'sufragio efectivo, no re-eleccion' (an effective vote and no re-election) - was seen as democratising. |
| When democracy once again started to take root in Latin America in the 1980s, most national constitutions forbade immediate re-election, with second terms not permitted until after a waiting period, if at all. | When democracy once again started to take root in Latin America in the 1980s, most national constitutions forbade immediate re-election, with second terms not permitted until after a waiting period, if at all. |
| The 1980s were a bad economic decade for Latin America and few incumbents had any prospect of re-election. The issue therefore tended to be put on hold. | The 1980s were a bad economic decade for Latin America and few incumbents had any prospect of re-election. The issue therefore tended to be put on hold. |
| In the 1990s, though, when the regional economy started to pick up, it returned with a vengeance. | In the 1990s, though, when the regional economy started to pick up, it returned with a vengeance. |
| Popular votes | Popular votes |
| Peru's President Alberto Fujimori closed the national congress in 1992, organised elections for a new constituent assembly and had the new constitution approved by national plebiscite. | Peru's President Alberto Fujimori closed the national congress in 1992, organised elections for a new constituent assembly and had the new constitution approved by national plebiscite. |
| This new constitution, unlike the old, permitted a second consecutive election and Mr Fujimori stood again for election in 1995 and won. | This new constitution, unlike the old, permitted a second consecutive election and Mr Fujimori stood again for election in 1995 and won. |
| His attempt to run for a third time, however, ended in disaster. | His attempt to run for a third time, however, ended in disaster. |
| Constitutional changes during the 1990s also permitted a second consecutive presidential term in both Argentina and Brazil. | Constitutional changes during the 1990s also permitted a second consecutive presidential term in both Argentina and Brazil. |
| Argentine President Carlos Menem, once re-elected, considered running for a third term but then drew back. | Argentine President Carlos Menem, once re-elected, considered running for a third term but then drew back. |
| Argentina's Juan Peron was succeeded by his third wife, Isabel | Argentina's Juan Peron was succeeded by his third wife, Isabel |
| In Colombia, the constitution has recently been changed to allow a second consecutive term and there are suggestions that President Alvaro Uribe is considering asking to be allowed to run yet again. | In Colombia, the constitution has recently been changed to allow a second consecutive term and there are suggestions that President Alvaro Uribe is considering asking to be allowed to run yet again. |
| The issue of re-election became more politically polarising once Hugo Chavez was elected in Venezuela. | The issue of re-election became more politically polarising once Hugo Chavez was elected in Venezuela. |
| Mr Chavez used a series of plebiscites to bypass the existing congress and change the constitution. | Mr Chavez used a series of plebiscites to bypass the existing congress and change the constitution. |
| The new constitution extended the presidential term from five years to six and permitted a single re-election. | The new constitution extended the presidential term from five years to six and permitted a single re-election. |
| Things changed further after Mr Chavez was successfully re-elected in 2006. He then called for a plebiscite on permitting a third presidential term. | Things changed further after Mr Chavez was successfully re-elected in 2006. He then called for a plebiscite on permitting a third presidential term. |
| He lost the initial vote in 2007 but then called a fresh vote on basically the same issue (there were a few differences) earlier this year, which he won. | He lost the initial vote in 2007 but then called a fresh vote on basically the same issue (there were a few differences) earlier this year, which he won. |
| The pattern of an incumbent president calling for a new constitution to strengthen the power of the presidency and permit a second term (or more) has also been adopted by Mr Chavez's main South American allies - Evo Morales in Bolivia and Rafael Correa in Ecuador. | The pattern of an incumbent president calling for a new constitution to strengthen the power of the presidency and permit a second term (or more) has also been adopted by Mr Chavez's main South American allies - Evo Morales in Bolivia and Rafael Correa in Ecuador. |
| Now we have the crisis in Honduras, and Nicaragua's President Daniel Ortega has also just recently called for a change in the national constitution to permit presidential re-election. | Now we have the crisis in Honduras, and Nicaragua's President Daniel Ortega has also just recently called for a change in the national constitution to permit presidential re-election. |
| It may seem anomalous that the re-election issue is so widely seen as important within Latin America. | It may seem anomalous that the re-election issue is so widely seen as important within Latin America. |
| There are, after all, ways of bypassing it. One is to use presidential relatives. | There are, after all, ways of bypassing it. One is to use presidential relatives. |
| Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner was elected to the presidency of Argentina in 2007, following on immediately from her husband's term. | Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner was elected to the presidency of Argentina in 2007, following on immediately from her husband's term. |
| Argentina's Juan Peron was replaced as president by his wife Isabel upon his death in 1974, though her term was brief and disastrous. | Argentina's Juan Peron was replaced as president by his wife Isabel upon his death in 1974, though her term was brief and disastrous. |
| However, Honduras's particular conflict, while it has an institutional aspect, can also be seen as a further round in the conflict between Mr Chavez (and his supporters) and the region's conservatives. | However, Honduras's particular conflict, while it has an institutional aspect, can also be seen as a further round in the conflict between Mr Chavez (and his supporters) and the region's conservatives. |