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Flu outbreak 'over worst for now' Flu outbreak 'over worst for now'
(8 minutes later)
Scotland may have seen the worst of the current phase of the swine flu pandemic, according to a leading expert on infection outbreaks.Scotland may have seen the worst of the current phase of the swine flu pandemic, according to a leading expert on infection outbreaks.
Professor Hugh Pennington, of Aberdeen University, also warned against fast-tracking a vaccine, before all the data has been properly analysed.Professor Hugh Pennington, of Aberdeen University, also warned against fast-tracking a vaccine, before all the data has been properly analysed.
It comes as a telephone and online advice service is launched in England.It comes as a telephone and online advice service is launched in England.
The Scottish Government said services in Scotland were under less pressure and keeping pace with the outbreak.The Scottish Government said services in Scotland were under less pressure and keeping pace with the outbreak.
It comes as figures have revealed that 55 people have been treated in hospital in Scotland since the start of the outbreak. Only two are still in hospital, while four people have died. It comes as figures have revealed that 55 people have been treated in hospital in Scotland since the start of the outbreak. Two are still in hospital, while four people have died.
Health Secretary Nicola Sturgeon said that the situation was being closely monitored. Cases of swine flu in Scotland are continuing to rise but they remain much lower than in England.
Mr Pennington told BBC Radio's Good Morning Scotland programme: "You could say we are possibly through the worst of this phase of the virus, whereas down south they do seem to be having an increasing number of people calling GPs, calling the telephone lines." According to the Scottish Government , there were about 1,200 new cases in Scotland last week - up from 750 the week before.
By contrast, there were about 100,000 new cases in England.
SWINE FLU SYMPTOMS 1. High temperature, tiredness and lowered immunity2. Headache, runny nose and sneezing3. Sore throat4. Shortness of breath5. Loss of appetite, vomiting and diarrhoea6. Aching muscles, limb and joint pain Source: NHSSWINE FLU SYMPTOMS 1. High temperature, tiredness and lowered immunity2. Headache, runny nose and sneezing3. Sore throat4. Shortness of breath5. Loss of appetite, vomiting and diarrhoea6. Aching muscles, limb and joint pain Source: NHS
Health Secretary Nicola Sturgeon said the situation was being closely monitored.
Mr Pennington said: "My feeling is that we're past the worst in Scotland.
"It may be that the outbreak has run out of steam. But the virus hasn't gone away.
"We may get the odd localised outbreak.
"But that apart, as the weather gets colder in September and October, I think the expectation is that the virus will take off again. Of course it's not certain, it might not."
He also urged caution over the release of a vaccine.He also urged caution over the release of a vaccine.
He said: "Once the initial tests have been done I think there is a possibility - laid out in the pandemic plan - that we could use emergency procedures just to rush it through before all the test results have been analysed and completed.He said: "Once the initial tests have been done I think there is a possibility - laid out in the pandemic plan - that we could use emergency procedures just to rush it through before all the test results have been analysed and completed.
"I'd be concerned about that because the pandemic plan was looking really at a virus that was much higher mortality than the one we're seeing now, the one we're seeing now is basically no different in that respect from seasonal flu.""I'd be concerned about that because the pandemic plan was looking really at a virus that was much higher mortality than the one we're seeing now, the one we're seeing now is basically no different in that respect from seasonal flu."
NHS24 has already been operating an advice service in Scotland. The new service in England will mean people will be able to get a diagnosis and drugs without seeing their GP.NHS24 has already been operating an advice service in Scotland. The new service in England will mean people will be able to get a diagnosis and drugs without seeing their GP.
Ms Sturgeon said the H1N1 virus was continuing to circulate in Scotland but overall levels of illness remain relatively low.Ms Sturgeon said the H1N1 virus was continuing to circulate in Scotland but overall levels of illness remain relatively low.
Manage demands
She said Scotland was not launching the National Pandemic Flu Service (NPFS) because NHS24 and GPs were continuing to manage the demands on the service.She said Scotland was not launching the National Pandemic Flu Service (NPFS) because NHS24 and GPs were continuing to manage the demands on the service.
She added: "We are keeping this situation under review and if demand grows over the next few months, we have the ability to opt into the NPFS service at a later stage.She added: "We are keeping this situation under review and if demand grows over the next few months, we have the ability to opt into the NPFS service at a later stage.
"A separate Scottish flu response service was set up on 1 June by NHS 24. The staffing in it has grown to keep pace with the growth in flu cases.""A separate Scottish flu response service was set up on 1 June by NHS 24. The staffing in it has grown to keep pace with the growth in flu cases."
Meanwhile, The Scotsman newspaper is reporting that GPs in Scotland are being asked to draw up plans to vaccinate certain "at risk" groups as early as next month.Meanwhile, The Scotsman newspaper is reporting that GPs in Scotland are being asked to draw up plans to vaccinate certain "at risk" groups as early as next month.
These would include pregnant women, young children and those with existing health problems.These would include pregnant women, young children and those with existing health problems.
On Tuesday, a 15-year-old girl became the fourth person in Scotland to die from swine flu.On Tuesday, a 15-year-old girl became the fourth person in Scotland to die from swine flu.
The teenager, who had underlying medical conditions, died at the Royal Hospital for Sick Children at Yorkhill, Glasgow.The teenager, who had underlying medical conditions, died at the Royal Hospital for Sick Children at Yorkhill, Glasgow.
Globally, about 800 people have died.Globally, about 800 people have died.