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Analysis: The power struggle in Iran | Analysis: The power struggle in Iran |
(1 day later) | |
By Roger Hardy BBC Middle East Analyst The role of the Supreme Leader is at the heart of the political crisis | By Roger Hardy BBC Middle East Analyst The role of the Supreme Leader is at the heart of the political crisis |
How are we to understand the tumultuous events in Iran over the last few weeks? | How are we to understand the tumultuous events in Iran over the last few weeks? |
In the 30 years since the Islamic revolution which overthrew the Shah, there has been no shortage of rows, crises and factional squabbles. | |
But this time is different. This time the disputes are out in the open - and the stakes could not be higher. | But this time is different. This time the disputes are out in the open - and the stakes could not be higher. |
There is a sense that Iran is at a crossroads. | There is a sense that Iran is at a crossroads. |
At the heart of the current crisis is the role of the Supreme Leader. This is the office created by the revolution's founding father, Ayatollah Khomeini. | At the heart of the current crisis is the role of the Supreme Leader. This is the office created by the revolution's founding father, Ayatollah Khomeini. |
It put him at the top of the pyramid of political power, giving him the final say in all important decisions. | It put him at the top of the pyramid of political power, giving him the final say in all important decisions. |
The office has been de-legitimised because the Leader has chosen to take sides Farideh Farhi, University of Hawaii | The office has been de-legitimised because the Leader has chosen to take sides Farideh Farhi, University of Hawaii |
But since Khomeini's death in 1989, the office has been held by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who lacks the charisma and religious authority of his revered predecessor. | But since Khomeini's death in 1989, the office has been held by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who lacks the charisma and religious authority of his revered predecessor. |
It was Ayatollah Khamenei's intervention in June's presidential elections that plunged the country into turmoil. | It was Ayatollah Khamenei's intervention in June's presidential elections that plunged the country into turmoil. |
By endorsing the conservative candidate, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, as the winner, he abandoned the Supreme Leader's traditional neutrality as a figure above the political fray. | By endorsing the conservative candidate, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, as the winner, he abandoned the Supreme Leader's traditional neutrality as a figure above the political fray. |
"The office has been de-legitimised," says Iranian political scientist Farideh Farhi of the University of Hawaii, "because the Leader has chosen to take sides - and has come out in support of a violent approach to demonstrators." | "The office has been de-legitimised," says Iranian political scientist Farideh Farhi of the University of Hawaii, "because the Leader has chosen to take sides - and has come out in support of a violent approach to demonstrators." |
So, given that the stakes were so high, why did the Leader act as he did? | So, given that the stakes were so high, why did the Leader act as he did? |
Barbara Slavin of the Washington Times is the author of a book on US-Iranian relations. | Barbara Slavin of the Washington Times is the author of a book on US-Iranian relations. |
Although there are plenty of conspiracy theories, she says, it is possible that the answer is hubris. | Although there are plenty of conspiracy theories, she says, it is possible that the answer is hubris. |
After 20 years in the office, power went to the Leader's head - and he overreached. | After 20 years in the office, power went to the Leader's head - and he overreached. |
Besides, she points out, Ayatollah Khamenei - like many other Iranians - genuinely believed that, at a time of tension between Iran and the West, the country needed a strong president rather than some "lily-livered reformist". | Besides, she points out, Ayatollah Khamenei - like many other Iranians - genuinely believed that, at a time of tension between Iran and the West, the country needed a strong president rather than some "lily-livered reformist". |
Enough is enough | Enough is enough |
Thousands protested against what they said was a rigged election | Thousands protested against what they said was a rigged election |
But whatever the Leader's calculations, it was a costly mistake. | But whatever the Leader's calculations, it was a costly mistake. |
Endorsing Mr Ahmadinejad as president for a second term, after what many saw as a fraudulent election, provoked protest on an unprecedented scale. | Endorsing Mr Ahmadinejad as president for a second term, after what many saw as a fraudulent election, provoked protest on an unprecedented scale. |
It also left the regime more dependent than ever on two paramilitary forces - the Revolutionary Guard and the volunteer militia known as the Basij. | It also left the regime more dependent than ever on two paramilitary forces - the Revolutionary Guard and the volunteer militia known as the Basij. |
Many clerics are appalled. | Many clerics are appalled. |
In their eyes, says Jon Alterman of the Washington think-tank, the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, the point of Islamic government is to lead the public - not to beat the public. | In their eyes, says Jon Alterman of the Washington think-tank, the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, the point of Islamic government is to lead the public - not to beat the public. |
He thinks some clerics may now be inclined to say, "Enough with one man being Leader. We'll have three, we'll have a committee. The Leader will advise, the Leader won't rule." | He thinks some clerics may now be inclined to say, "Enough with one man being Leader. We'll have three, we'll have a committee. The Leader will advise, the Leader won't rule." |
That would pitch the Islamic Republic into uncharted waters. | That would pitch the Islamic Republic into uncharted waters. |
But it is an option that seems to be favoured by one of the key figures in the power struggle - the former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. | But it is an option that seems to be favoured by one of the key figures in the power struggle - the former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. |
Salvaging the system? | Salvaging the system? |
Mr Ahmadinejad is due to be sworn into office again in August | Mr Ahmadinejad is due to be sworn into office again in August |
During the elections, Mr Rafsanjani supported the main reformist candidate, Mir Hossein Mousavi - and was clearly shocked when Mr Ahmadinejad was declared the winner. | During the elections, Mr Rafsanjani supported the main reformist candidate, Mir Hossein Mousavi - and was clearly shocked when Mr Ahmadinejad was declared the winner. |
Speaking at Friday prayers at Tehran University on 12 July, he presented himself as a loyal supporter of the system whose duty was to rescue it from crisis and division. | Speaking at Friday prayers at Tehran University on 12 July, he presented himself as a loyal supporter of the system whose duty was to rescue it from crisis and division. |
It must have been a difficult decision, says political scientist Farideh Farhi, but he decided to say openly that the leadership had taken the wrong path. | It must have been a difficult decision, says political scientist Farideh Farhi, but he decided to say openly that the leadership had taken the wrong path. |
"What he's trying to do," says journalist Barbara Slavin, "is somehow salvage the system in a way that retains some figment of legitimacy - and that's not going to be easy." | "What he's trying to do," says journalist Barbara Slavin, "is somehow salvage the system in a way that retains some figment of legitimacy - and that's not going to be easy." |
Mr Rafsanjani has had a chequered career. He has come under fire because of his great wealth and because of the human rights abuses which tarnished his presidency in the 1990s. | Mr Rafsanjani has had a chequered career. He has come under fire because of his great wealth and because of the human rights abuses which tarnished his presidency in the 1990s. |
It would be ironic, says Ms Slavin, if this was his legacy - to preserve the legitimacy of the regime and at the same time rehabilitate his own rather tattered reputation. | It would be ironic, says Ms Slavin, if this was his legacy - to preserve the legitimacy of the regime and at the same time rehabilitate his own rather tattered reputation. |
Whether that is possible must be an open question. | Whether that is possible must be an open question. |
With Mr Ahmadinejad due to be sworn in for a second term on 5 August, the government has a tough choice. | With Mr Ahmadinejad due to be sworn in for a second term on 5 August, the government has a tough choice. |
If it makes concessions in the face of continuing demonstrations, that would be a humiliating climb down. | If it makes concessions in the face of continuing demonstrations, that would be a humiliating climb down. |
If, as seems more likely, it clings to power, it will do so as a wounded regime whose credibility is ebbing away. | If, as seems more likely, it clings to power, it will do so as a wounded regime whose credibility is ebbing away. |
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